ESPN Insider: 2018 NFL QB Tiers - 50 execs rank starting QBs

jterrell said:

guess that 'real world' is a one season view.

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That ranking is laughable whether you are looking at 1 year or 10 years.

And if any of you guys think ranking Dak 17th is some big insult you're wrong.
He is a 3rd year QB coming off losing his LT and stud RB.

Romo was often considered between 8 and 12 and we plaid him franchise QB money.
Dak is 17th and we pay him 62nd most at QB.

CPanther95 said:

That ranking is laughable whether you are looking at 1 year or 10 years.

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metrics are emotional.

CPanther95 said:

Apparently "advanced metrics" don't translate well at all to the field in the real world.

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What specifically do you mean by "real world"?

NFLJUNKY said:

For me what is most important is two things. How a QB performs on 3rd down and in the red zone for me is what separates the two QBs. All the silly talk about completion percentages is empty. In the NFL what happens between the 20’s is worthless. What happens in the red zone is the real deal.
Just like in the NBA with the three point line, 3rd down is the money down. A teams ability to convert 3rd downs is key to winning games. Keeping the ball is life in the NFL. To that point Wentz was tops in the league in third down passes (with over 100 passes). Dak was 16th. Wentz at 49.2% compared to 38.9% for Dak.
In the red zone the difference is even wider. Wentz was second to Brady (mostly because of his injury). Inside the 20 (the red zone) Wentz completion % was 64% and he threw 24 tds and 0 ints. Looking at Dak his percentage was 47.8% and he threw 15 tds and 2 ints. So looking at those two very important things shows a huge gap in the two QBs.
Talk all you’d like about percentage this and percentage that, if your not keeping the ball and/or scoring, it means nothing. Question, how many of you are confident that if you lost Zeke you could win games? If you had to ride Daks arm how many of you see the play offs as a real possibility? I don’t.

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You’re right that 3rd down and red zone are important.

I’ll say this. The eagles converted an inordinately huh amount of 3rd and longs last season. So high, I am curious to see if they can replicate the same success this year. Wentz’ scrambling ability helped in that regard. We will see how the ACL injury does or does not affect that.

I also don’t think it’s fair to discuss Dak’s red zone importance without listing his rushing TD’s. Dak has proven to be a huge running threat within the red zone. He has 8 TD’s last season alone, rushing.

I know it’s not the traditional NFL way of scoring but a TD is a TD.

Fahey on Dak:
5. Dak Prescott – Tier 2.

Did you know? Only 5.3 percent of Dak Prescott’s attempts were screens, the second-lowest rate in the league.

If you thought Dak Prescott played like a superstar as a rookie but was awful during his second season, you’re likely conflating quarterback evaluation with evaluating the offense as a whole. Everything on the Cowboys offense got significantly worse in 2017. The offensive line got weaker at left guard and right tackle with new players, the center’s performances dropped off and the left tackle was hurt. Jason Witten was even slower at tight end. Dez Bryant spent the season struggling to get open then had a monumental number of drops when he did get open. Ezekiel Elliott was out of shape then out of the league for six weeks through suspension.

Everything was worse except for the quarterback. The quarterback actually got better.

Prescott wasn’t a star during his rookie season. The Cowboys should have gone back to Tony Romo. But he grew in his second season. He was one of the most accurate passers in the league, ranking fourth in the league with a 60.2 depth-adjusted accuracy percentage. That was while throwing to a group of receivers who couldn’t separate and offered limited catch radiuses.

Prescott wasn’t just checking down either. He threw 58.2 percent of his passes further than five yards downfield, the seventh-highest rate in the league. More significantly, he threw the second-highest rate of passes into the 1-20 yard range. 77.2 percent of the Cowboys passing game existed within those parameters. It was the opposite of a short and shot play offense.

Throwing into the 1-20 yard range is tougher to do than throwing the ball short and deep. In the Cowboys offense it meant an over-reliance on isolated routes with straight dropbacks where the quarterback had to manage the pocket. 29 quarterbacks used play action or screens more often than Prescott did. He wasn’t throwing into distorted coverages or making quick throws into the flat that gained big yardage. He was responsible for throwing receivers open and carrying an offense that wasn’t built to work without an all star supporting cast.

It was the same offense that Garrett ran during Prescott’s rookie season, but without the incredible pass protection and dominant running game, and with a worse group of receivers, the quarterback never had a real chance.

What really stood out from Prescott was his acumen. He showed off more command of his offense during his second season. Making successful audibles and adjustments to spring receivers open. That was on the occasions when he had opportunities to do so. Jason Garrett’s refusal to adjust to his personnel or to his opponents meant that Prescott often appeared to be the only one on the Dallas offense who was trying to make the offense function smoother.

Although the numbers weren’t there, Prescott’s precision as a passer, his intelligence as a quarterback and his physical skill set to function inside and outside of structure were obvious. The Cowboys have a lot of problems, the quarterback isn’t one.

I like the analysis alot.

Thanks for sharing.

DakPresgoat said:

You’re right that 3rd down and red zone are important.

I’ll say this. The eagles converted an inordinately huh amount of 3rd and longs last season. So high, I am curious to see if they can replicate the same success this year. Wentz’ scrambling ability helped in that regard. We will see how the ACL injury does or does not affect that.

I also don’t think it’s fair to discuss Dak’s red zone importance without listing his rushing TD’s. Dak has proven to be a huge running threat within the red zone. He has 8 TD’s last season alone, rushing.

I know it’s not the traditional NFL way of scoring but a TD is a TD.

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The Eagles score 34 or more point sin 3 of the 5 games Foles played. 1 of those was the take a knee game they played versus Dallas.
Eagles fans and especially closet Eagles fans that post here as Cowboys fan overrate Wentz instead of crediting the offense and scheme and OL and varied rushing attack that featured 4 good players.

A hurt Wentz isn't going to derail the Eagles. Less depth everywhere because of salary cap concerns and inflated salaries as SB winners and a basically skipped draft class and the NFL having a year to study that offense and the target of SB champ may.

DakPresgoat said:

You’re right that 3rd down and red zone are important.

I’ll say this. The eagles converted an inordinately huh amount of 3rd and longs last season. So high, I am curious to see if they can replicate the same success this year. Wentz’ scrambling ability helped in that regard. We will see how the ACL injury does or does not affect that.

I also don’t think it’s fair to discuss Dak’s red zone importance without listing his rushing TD’s. Dak has proven to be a huge running threat within the red zone. He has 8 TD’s last season alone, rushing.

I know it’s not the traditional NFL way of scoring but a TD is a TD.

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They are in year three in this offense. They are just learning it. I think they’ll actually be better. They found out what Alshon and Zach can be late in the year. They get back one of the primer 3rd down backs in league history. And they get back a HOF LT. The offense is one of multiplicity. Play design and really talented players give me confidence that we will be ok.

Fahey on Wentz: (for the closet Eagles fans)

10. Carson Wentz – Tier 3.

Did you know? 7.9 percent of Wentz’s yards were gained on inaccurate throws and three of his touchdowns were. Only one quarterback had more than three touchdowns on inaccurate throws.

Prior to tearing his ACL, Carson Wentz was ticking every box for the traditionalist’s method of quarterback evaluation. Most importantly, his team was winning a lot of games. Almost as importantly, he had thrown for a bunch of touchdowns. That was enough to make him a strong, maybe even the favoriite MVP candidate.

It was a very similar season to that of Matt Ryan in 2016. Wentz was the quarterback of a great offense more than a great quarterback in 2017. He was still pretty good overall, but his primary value was in not turning the ball over. Wentz threw seven interceptable passes in his first two games. Obviously an awful start. But after that it took him another seven games to throw another seven interceptable passes.

The primary difference between Wentz during his second season was his improved footwork. Instead of hitting the top of his drop and locking into one spot, he showed more balance and more comfort. That allowed him to move his eyes more easily, avoiding stare downs and creating better timing. It also allowed him to avoid the wild overthrown passes over the middle of the field that defined his rookie season. He became one of the best intermediate passers in the league.

If Wentz is going to take another step forward in 2018, he needs to show more consistency with his accuracy. He was a good intermediate passer but that was the only area where he impressed. He ranked 25th or worse on short throws, underneath throws and on deep throws. It didn’t hold the Eagles offense back because of how overwhelming the offense as a whole was. That’s why the offense didn’t fall apart when Nick Foles took over.

NFLJUNKY said:

They are in year three in this offense. They are just learning it. I think they’ll actually be better. They found out what Alshon and Zach can be late in the year. They get back one of the primer 3rd down backs in league history. And they get back a HOF LT. The offense is one of multiplicity. Play design and really talented players give me confidence that we will be ok.

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That is correct.
Eagles may actually be better if they start the year with Foles and give Wentz time to be 100% as well as have a lot of practice snaps before coming back.
Given they may only have Foles half a year or this season using him and getting value makes sense.

The Eagles concerns will be less overall total depth and the other concerns I raised above.
But they absolutely are among the elite entering 2018.

jterrell said:

The Eagles score 34 or more point sin 3 of the 5 games Foles played. 1 of those was the take a knee game they played versus Dallas.
Eagles fans and especially closet Eagles fans that post here as Cowboys fan overrate Wentz instead of crediting the offense and scheme and OL and varied rushing attack that featured 4 good players.

A hurt Wentz isn't going to derail the Eagles. Less depth everywhere because of salary cap concerns and inflated salaries as SB winners and a basically skipped draft class and the NFL having a year to study that offense and the target of SB champ may.

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Well I think people who look at the cap as something that will hurt the Eagles are missing what the team is actually doing. They are accumulating picks. They know they will lose players. By the next draft I expect they will have 6 picks in the first hundred. Look for them to target LT, Safety and RB in those picks. Howie learn the cap game from one of the best to ever do it, Joe Banner. Fans who get their panties in a bunch over the cap really haven’t been paying attention. Smart GMs know how to make it work.

jterrell said:

worth noting:
Cian Fahey is generally considered the best QB advanced metrics guy out there.
Think of him as Moneyball for NFL QBs.

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Cian Fahey also thought that Carson Wentz should be drafted on Day 3 and that Venron Adams was the best QB in that draft.

Vernon Adams has been on 4 different CFL teams.

CPanther95 said:

Apparently "advanced metrics" don't translate well at all to the field in the real world.

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It’s accurate enough for now from a dollar perspective. If he’s a ‘moneyball’ guy, he’s looking at the QBs based on their performance and the amount they are being paid. Dak is on a rookie deal and was drafted in the 4th round. Of course he would rank high in the analytic department now. The question will be where will he rank when it’s time to make a decision on his next deal for a ton more money.

How is Ben Roethlisberger considered a tier 1 guy when he needs the best receiver, best RB and a top three offensive line to average 20 points a game?

jterrell said:

That is correct.
Eagles may actually be better if they start the year with Foles and give Wentz time to be 100% as well as have a lot of practice snaps before coming back.
Given they may only have Foles half a year or this season using him and getting value makes sense.

The Eagles concerns will be less overall total depth and the other concerns I raised above.
But they absolutely are among the elite entering 2018.

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Not sure what position group you see as weaker than last year. They are better at OL, DL, RB, WR, TE and CB. The only place I see any real issues are possibly at LB. and that can be handled at cut downs.

Everson24 said:

How is Ben Roethlisberger considered a tier 1 guy when he needs the best receiver, best RB and a top three offensive line to average 20 points a game?

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I was thinking the same thing. Maybe it's due to his body of work rather than his play last season.

I also thought Carr shouldn't be in tier 2 and Bortles shouldn't be in tier 3.

Everson24 said:

How is Ben Roethlisberger considered a tier 1 guy when he needs the best receiver, best RB and a top three offensive line to average 20 points a game?

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25.375 points per game.

Being a Super Bowl champion twice probably helps, granted Ben is definitely on his last legs. 15 years in the NFL will do that to you.

NFLJUNKY said:

Well I think people who look at the cap as something that will hurt the Eagles are missing what the team is actually doing. They are accumulating picks. They know they will lose players. By the next draft I expect they will have 6 picks in the first hundred. Look for them to target LT, Safety and RB in those picks. Howie learn the cap game from one of the best to ever do it, Joe Banner. Fans who get their panties in a bunch over the cap really haven’t been paying attention. Smart GMs know how to make it work.

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The Eagles are sitting 44M OVER the cap for 2019.
That's terrible cap management.
It just is.
Only two teams are more than 3M over, JAX and PHI both teams who were desperate. But PHI easily finishes last in cap totals for 2019.

Philly really got it all right in 2017 and they shook off the trophy-less yoke but they really need to get their cap cleaned up before they mire Wentz with a Romo-like cast for much of his career.

PHI only one pick in the top 120 last year. It was 49th and they took a 2nd TE that can't block.
They've only had four total draft picks in top 100 in the previous two seasons.
They have one of the oldest teams in the NFL.

Trading Wentz for a windfall of young, cheap players would be the move for sure.
They may also wanna consider something more extreme like moving off Fletcher Cox for a windfall.
He's primo for sure but also costs a fortune and won't be getting cheaper.
Like with any superstar at some point his cost will upend his salary and they'll be stuck with a huge dead cap bill to remove him.