Would you tag and trade DLaw for two 1st round picks?

xwalker · Feb 11, 2019

Leedscowboy said:
I used Mack as an e.g. of the Raiders giving up an elite edge rusher for 2-1sts, and the Bears 2019 pick is is at 24, and its more than likely the 2020 pick will also be there or thereabouts. 2 1sts round picks for Mack is only worth it, if they are top 5-10 where you can land a blue chipper, but as they are not.

Again, you are overlooking the cap space. The Raiders get 23.5M in cap space plus the two 1st round picks.

They can sign the best free agent for 23.5M or less or they can get (using 2018 as the example):
Best Free Agent DT plus, Best Free Agent OG or CB or OT (plus/minus a couple of million).

Trade Chart: Trading 2 picks at #24 gets you to #7.

Finally, I like to look at things with the question "What would the Patriots do?"
The Patriots have not traded two 1st for a player in the Belichick era.
They have traded away All-Pro type players such as DE Chandler Jones, OG Logan Mankins and LB Jamie Collins.

Leedscowboy · Feb 11, 2019

xwalker said:
Again, you are overlooking the cap space. The Raiders get 23.5M in cap space plus the two 1st round picks.

They can sign the best free agent for 23.5M or less or they can get (using 2018 as the example):
Best Free Agent DT plus, Best Free Agent OG or CB or OT (plus/minus a couple of million).

Trade Chart: Trading 2 picks at #24 gets you to #7.

Finally, I like to look at things with the question "What would the Patriots do?"
The Patriots have not traded two 1st for a player in the Belichick era.
They have traded away All-Pro type players such as DE Chandler Jones, OG Logan Mankins and LB Jamie Collins.

24th pick is worth 740 pts, the 2020 is worth less, and it certainly will not get you to 7th, however, for arguments sake, lets say it does, and edge players available Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, Jachai Polite, no thanks ill keep Law.

Belichick trades players away a year before they decline, DLaw is not decling in 2019, if the Pats offerd you 2-1sts for Dlaw do you accept or decline.

Top 5 FA DT in 2019
Suh
Richardson
Bailey
Wilkerson
Mebane

Why would we need an OG, we drafted Williams and have Martin

however top 5 FA OG in 2019

Iuapati
levitre
Safford
Carpenter
Foster

CB, again, we have Jones, Awuzie, Brown and Lewis

but the top 5 CB in FA will be
Alford
Jackson
Grimes
Claiborne
Skrine

Only Suh, would be worth a look, but he played for $14m, so no thanks, I would rather get Bennie Logan.

xwalker · Feb 11, 2019

Leedscowboy said:
24th pick is worth 740 pts, the 2020 is worth less, and it certainly will not get you to 7th, however, for arguments sake, lets say it does, and edge players available Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, Jachai Polite, no thanks ill keep Law.

Belichick trades players away a year before they decline, DLaw is not decling in 2019, if the Pats offerd you 2-1sts for Dlaw do you accept or decline.

Top 5 FA DT in 2019
Suh
Richardson
Bailey
Wilkerson
Mebane

Why would we need an OG, we drafted Williams and have Martin

however top 5 FA OG in 2019

Iuapati
levitre
Safford
Carpenter
Foster

CB, again, we have Jones, Awuzie, Brown and Lewis

but the top 5 CB in FA will be
Alford
Jackson
Grimes
Claiborne
Skrine

Only Suh, would be worth a look, but he played for $14m, so no thanks, I would rather get Bennie Logan.

The example was in regards to the Raiders not Cowboys.

My example used previous years because we know what happened.

We don't know about 2019 free agent contract numbers yet. Cap money saved does not have to be spent immediately. Extra cap space carries forward.

We also don't know which players will become available due to cap cuts. The Cowboys could tag and trade DLaw because they're OK keeping him at the tag price. Some teams won't or can't do that or they've used the tag on another player. I don't have the cap situation will all teams memorized.

If your argument has come down to the idea that 23.5M in cap space can't be used to significantly upgrade the roster, then I don't think you'll find much support for that opinion.

Leedscowboy · Feb 12, 2019

xwalker said:
The example was in regards to the Raiders not Cowboys.

My example used previous years because we know what happened.

We don't know about 2019 free agent contract numbers yet. Cap money saved does not have to be spent immediately. Extra cap space carries forward.

We also don't know which players will become available due to cap cuts. The Cowboys could tag and trade DLaw because they're OK keeping him at the tag price. Some teams won't or can't do that or they've used the tag on another player. I don't have the cap situation will all teams memorized.

If your argument has come down to the idea that 23.5M in cap space can't be used to significantly upgrade the roster, then I don't think you'll find much support for that opinion.

No my idea comes down to keeping DLAW and not trading him, even for cap space and picks, Tank has proven himself, and whilst its possible we could find talent to replace him in the draft, there are still missess, players such as Dion Jordan, Fowler, Coples, Irvin, Suh is a good player but which Suh will turn up, the one in his early years in Detroit or the one that was in Miami?

xwalker · Feb 12, 2019

Leedscowboy said:
No my idea comes down to keeping DLAW and not trading him, even for cap space and picks, Tank has proven himself, and whilst its possible we could find talent to replace him in the draft, there are still missess, players such as Dion Jordan, Fowler, Coples, Irvin, Suh is a good player but which Suh will turn up, the one in his early years in Detroit or the one that was in Miami?

Fans rarely value cap space especially when the draft or trades are involved.

For long term team building (the Patriots method) trading DLaw for two 1st round picks is definitely the analytics type move.

Turning down the picks would be a short term move. If they did it last year they would be stupid. This year a case could be made for more short term emphasis.

In general for many years Jerry took the go for it short term approach (Joey Galloway trade, Roy Williams trade, maxing out the cap, etc..). We know the results of that approach.

The Patriots have used the opposite approach and focused on the long term (beyond the current season). The players they've traded away were in their prime. They were NOT old players.

Leedscowboy · Feb 12, 2019

xwalker said:
Fans rarely value cap space especially when the draft or trades are involved.

For long term team building (the Patriots method) trading DLaw for two 1st round picks is definitely the analytics type move.

Turning down the picks would be a short term move. If they did it last year they would be stupid. This year a case could be made for more short term emphasis.

In general for many years Jerry took the go for it short term approach (Joey Galloway trade, Roy Williams trade, maxing out the cap, etc..). We know the results of that approach.

The Patriots have used the opposite approach and focused on the long term (beyond the current season). The players they've traded away were in their prime. They were NOT old players.

I never said they were old, they were just not going to get any better. Cap space is irrelevent, as its not fixed, contracts can still be offered for the right player that comes along, even when tight against the cap. Turning down picks is not a short term approach, it's a matter of weighing what you have v what you may get, sure you get lucky and draft the next Mack, but you can easily draft the next Dion Jordan, Dante Fowler, Quenton Coples, 2 were top 3 picks and have failed to perform a,d drafting 2 players who do not live up the draft selection is more determental long term to the team.

xwalker · Feb 12, 2019

Leedscowboy said:
I never said they were old, they were just not going to get any better. Cap space is irrelevent, as its not fixed, contracts can still be offered for the right player that comes along, even when tight against the cap. Turning down picks is not a short term approach, it's a matter of weighing what you have v what you may get, sure you get lucky and draft the next Mack, but you can easily draft the next Dion Jordan, Dante Fowler, Quenton Coples, 2 were top 3 picks and have failed to perform a,d drafting 2 players who do not live up the draft selection is more determental long term to the team.

No, the cap is fixed. If a team manipulates the current year cap to "fit" a free agent contract, then that impacts the cap in following years.

Your concept is that draft picks are basically worthless unless they're top 10.

Do you really think the Cowboys would have let go of a player like Demarcus Ware if the cap was "irrelevant" ?

Again, it's not just picks vs the Franchised Player. The team also gets the 23.5M in cap space to add proven players to the roster.

Leedscowboy · Feb 12, 2019

xwalker said:
No, the cap is fixed. If a team manipulates the current year cap to "fit" a free agent contract, then that impacts the cap in following years.

Your concept is that draft picks are basically worthless unless they're top 10.

Do you really think the Cowboys would have let go of a player like Demarcus Ware if the cap was "irrelevant" ?

Again, it's not just picks vs the Franchised Player. The team also gets the 23.5M in cap space to add proven players to the roster.

No my concept of draft picks is they are a crap shoot, the players may work out, and quite often they do, but there is still a high fail rate. It's fallable. Ware was let go due to a combination of age/injury/cap, Denver had a lot of other pieces on their Defence and he was able to play more as he was not the sole rusher, and they had a very good DL, plus a very good Secondary.

As for adding players via FA, they dont always work out, when players change teams, yes they do work out, but there are multiple instance of a player doing little and failing to live upto their contract.

You appear to be under the impression that picks and cap space will work out, but its not always the case, the grass is not always greener.

xwalker · Feb 12, 2019

DLaw is not a guarantee. No player is 100% guaranteed even for the upcoming season and definitely not over the duration of a multi-year contract.

DLaw has had 2 back surgeries. That drives down the probability of multi-year success by a significant margin.

The probably of getting a long term starter in the 1st round in that range around #24 is about 75%.

The probability of getting a long term starter with 1 of 2 draft picks in the bottom half of the first round is 98% based on historical data of teams with picks in that range in back years.

On top of the draft picks, you get 23.5M in cap space (in the Raiders example).

That 23.5M likely gets both Earl Thomas and the Patriots starting DT Malcom Brown plus 2 first round picks.

Not taking two 1st round picks for DLaw is definitely a short-term focused decision.

Manwiththeplan · Feb 12, 2019

xwalker said:
That 23.5M likely gets both Earl Thomas and the Patriots starting DT Malcom Brown plus 2 first round picks.

We have enough to sign them now if we want

xwalker · Feb 12, 2019

Manwiththeplan said:
We have enough to sign them now if we want

The Cowboys manage the cap on a multi-year basis. They don't just manage it based on the upcoming season.

DLaw
Cooper
Dak
Zeke
B.Jones

Then Jaylon and other players...

Manwiththeplan · Feb 12, 2019

xwalker said:
The Cowboys manage the cap on a multi-year basis. They don't just manage it based on the upcoming season.

DLaw
Cooper
Dak
Zeke
B.Jones

Then Jaylon and other players...

They have 46 million now and I don't think that includes the 11 million that rolls over. Next year we have the 4th most in cap space. We have enough to sign DLaw and EThomas+MBrown if we wanted. I'm not neccesarily advocating that we sign them both, specifically Brown, but we could and still be in pretty good shape. Even with Cooper, he'll get paid, but his cap number is likely to decrease next year if we extend him. BJones is a player I like, maybe we don't resign him though, I don't know, but I certainly wouldn't keep him at DLaw's expense. With Zeke, we'll see as well. He's a RB so we may do the whole tag thing for a while before letting him walk.

xwalker · Feb 12, 2019

Manwiththeplan said:
They have 46 million now and I don't think that includes the 11 million that rolls over. Next year we have the 4th most in cap space. We have enough to sign DLaw and EThomas+MBrown if we wanted. I'm not neccesarily advocating that we sign them both, specifically Brown, but we could and still be in pretty good shape. Even with Cooper, he'll get paid, but his cap number is likely to decrease next year if we extend him. BJones is a player I like, maybe we don't resign him though, I don't know, but I certainly wouldn't keep him at DLaw's expense. With Zeke, we'll see as well. He's a RB so we may do the whole tag thing for a while before letting him walk.

The average contract values need to average out to less than or equal to the total cap limit; otherwise, they'll run out of space.

You might have enough money in your back account to make a few payments on a Ferrari; however, if the payment is more then your income, you'll have a problem in a few months.

Dak 25
Zeke 15
Cooper 18
DLaw 18
Jones 12 (likey much more)
ET 12

That's 100M per on 6 players.

The projected cap limit is 189M.

There will be many other players that need new contracts in the years after the ones above.

Leedscowboy · Feb 13, 2019

xwalker said:
The average contract values need to average out to less than or equal to the total cap limit; otherwise, they'll run out of space.

You might have enough money in your back account to make a few payments on a Ferrari; however, if the payment is more then your income, you'll have a problem in a few months.

Dak 25
Zeke 15
Cooper 18
DLaw 18
Jones 12 (likey much more)
ET 12

That's 100M per on 6 players.

The projected cap limit is 189M.

There will be many other players that need new contracts in the years after the ones above.

The average amount means very little, its all about what the cap hit is on any given year, not what their average salary is. Smith when he signed his extenstion back in 2014 had an average salary of $12.2m, but he never earned more than his average salary, until this season, when his cap hit was $17.5m, previous to that he accounted for $4.9m, $5m, $6.8m, $8.8m, his cap hit from 2014 to 2017 was was an average salary of $6.3m, which is a near 50% less than $12.2m average salary his contract worked out.

Even accounting for his 2018 salary of $17.5m, his average salary was only $8.6m, still 25% less than what his average salary should be.

Using the average annual salary of NFL players,for working out cap purposes is worthless, the Salary cap is $187m, which means the average salary for any NFL player would be $3.52m per season, whilst some earn a lot less than that, there are lot more players earning a lot more than that.

Its all about the guranteed $$, this is the number that matters the most, everything else is just headlines.

xwalker · Feb 13, 2019

Leedscowboy said:
The average amount means very little, its all about what the cap hit is on any given year, not what their average salary is. Smith when he signed his extenstion back in 2014 had an average salary of $12.2m, but he never earned more than his average salary, until this season, when his cap hit was $17.5m, previous to that he accounted for $4.9m, $5m, $6.8m, $8.8m, his cap hit from 2014 to 2017 was was an average salary of $6.3m, which is a near 50% less than $12.2m average salary his contract worked out.

Even accounting for his 2018 salary of $17.5m, his average salary was only $8.6m, still 25% less than what his average salary should be.

Using the average annual salary of NFL players,for working out cap purposes is worthless, the Salary cap is $187m, which means the average salary for any NFL player would be $3.52m per season, whilst some earn a lot less than that, there are lot more players earning a lot more than that.

Its all about the guranteed $$, this is the number that matters the most, everything else is just headlines.

That is completely wrong.

You have to add all money received from bonuses including the prorated money in future years because he has already received all of that money.

From OverTheCap look at the prorated column. All prorated money from 2014 to the end has to be included.

That means the total paid is the sum of 2014-2018 base salaries plus the sum of all prorated money from 2014 to 2021.

2014-2018 salary total = $14,393,013.00
2014-2021 prorated total = $39,622,018.00
Total salary + prorated = $54,015,031.00 (This is the total he has been paid on the contract that started in 2014)

2014-2018 total cap hits = $43,180,031.00

Total cap hits - total salary+prorated = $10,835,000.00

If cut in March 2019:
The $10,835,000.00 would be dead-money on the 2019 cap.
He would have been paid $54,015,031.00 from 2014 to 2018. That is an average of $13,503,757.75 per year.

If he plays all 8 years of the contract:
If he plays all 8 years of the 97.6M contract that started in 2014, his average salary would be 12.2M per year (97.6M / 8).

If they did that with 10 players, it would be 108M in prorated money that has not been charged to the cap yet.

If all 10 were cut in March 2019, then it would be 108M in dead-money on the 2019 cap.

If all 10 stay to the end of the contract, then:
The Cowboys had 21.6M per season of extra cap space from 2014 to 2018 (on average) from pushing the 108M forward.
The Cowboys will have 36M per season less cap space from 2019 to 2021 from pushing the 108M forward.

If comparing the 2014-2018 seasons to the 2019-2021 seasons, the Cowboys will have 57.6M less per season in the 2019-2021 seasons than in the 2014-2018 seasons from pushing the 108M forward.

Obviously 10 players will not have the exact same contract. It's an example. However, it's the same concert regards of whether the 108M gets pushed forward on 10 contracts or 15 contracts or 20 contracts.

Leedscowboy · Feb 14, 2019

xwalker said:
That is completely wrong.

You have to add all money received from bonuses including the prorated money in future years because he has already received all of that money.

From OverTheCap look at the prorated column. All prorated money from 2014 to the end has to be included.

That means the total paid is the sum of 2014-2018 base salaries plus the sum of all prorated money from 2014 to 2021.

2014-2018 salary total = $14,393,013.00
2014-2021 prorated total = $39,622,018.00
Total salary + prorated = $54,015,031.00 (This is the total he has been paid on the contract that started in 2014)

2014-2018 total cap hits = $43,180,031.00

Total cap hits - total salary+prorated = $10,835,000.00

If cut in March 2019:
The $10,835,000.00 would be dead-money on the 2019 cap.
He would have been paid $54,015,031.00 from 2014 to 2018. That is an average of $13,503,757.75 per year.

If he plays all 8 years of the contract:
If he plays all 8 years of the 97.6M contract that started in 2014, his average salary would be 12.2M per year (97.6M / 8).

If they did that with 10 players, it would be 108M in prorated money that has not been charged to the cap yet.

If all 10 were cut in March 2019, then it would be 108M in dead-money on the 2019 cap.

If all 10 stay to the end of the contract, then:
The Cowboys had 21.6M per season of extra cap space from 2014 to 2018 (on average) from pushing the 108M forward.
The Cowboys will have 36M per season less cap space from 2019 to 2021 from pushing the 108M forward.

If comparing the 2014-2018 seasons to the 2019-2021 seasons, the Cowboys will have 57.6M less per season in the 2019-2021 seasons than in the 2014-2018 seasons from pushing the 108M forward.

Obviously 10 players will not have the exact same contract. It's an example. However, it's the same concert regards of whether the 108M gets pushed forward on 10 contracts or 15 contracts or 20 contracts.

I use Spotrac https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/tyron-smith-7724/

Bonus $$ are spread out of the length of the contract up to a period of 5 years, all bonus money is paid upfront. Again average salary means little he has not been paid that each year, and it has not accounted for that on the salary cap, it even shows you the break down of what he has earned, it was not until last season that his salary exceeded the average that he was to have earned, and when taken on average over the previous 4 seasons his average was below $12m. Its all about the cap hit on any given year not what the average salary states in the headlines, and if you look at his salary between 2014-2017 Smith's salary did not once account for $12m on the salary cap, which is what his average salary worked out at.

Tyron Smith signed an 8yr $97.6m contract back in 2014 which included a $10m signing bonus and $22.11m guaranteed, an average annual salary of $12.2m.

His contract broke down as follows
2014 $1.07m base salary, $3.897m signing total cap hit $4.976m
2015 $1.039m base salaray $2m signing $2m restructure cap hit $5.039m
2016 $1.0m base salary $2m signing $2m restructure cap hit $6.8m
2017 $1.275m base salary $2m signing restructure $5.54m cap hit $8.820m
2018 $10m base salary restructure $5.54m cap hit $17.54m

In year 1 Smiths Average salary was $4.97m
in year 2 his average salary was $5.0045m
in year 3 his average salary was $5.605m
In year 4 his average salary was $6.40m
in year 5 his average salary was $8.63m

xwalker · Feb 14, 2019

Leedscowboy said:
I use Spotrac https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/tyron-smith-7724/

Bonus $$ are spread out of the length of the contract up to a period of 5 years, all bonus money is paid upfront. Again average salary means little he has not been paid that each year, and it has not accounted for that on the salary cap, it even shows you the break down of what he has earned, it was not until last season that his salary exceeded the average that he was to have earned, and when taken on average over the previous 4 seasons his average was below $12m. Its all about the cap hit on any given year not what the average salary states in the headlines, and if you look at his salary between 2014-2017 Smith's salary did not once account for $12m on the salary cap, which is what his average salary worked out at.

Tyron Smith signed an 8yr $97.6m contract back in 2014 which included a $10m signing bonus and $22.11m guaranteed, an average annual salary of $12.2m.

His contract broke down as follows
2014 $1.07m base salary, $3.897m signing total cap hit $4.976m
2015 $1.039m base salaray $2m signing $2m restructure cap hit $5.039m
2016 $1.0m base salary $2m signing $2m restructure cap hit $6.8m
2017 $1.275m base salary $2m signing restructure $5.54m cap hit $8.820m
2018 $10m base salary restructure $5.54m cap hit $17.54m

In year 1 Smiths Average salary was $4.97m
in year 2 his average salary was $5.0045m
in year 3 his average salary was $5.605m
In year 4 his average salary was $6.40m
in year 5 his average salary was $8.63m

You're ignoring the prorated money pushed into future years.

Maybe you are confusing salary with average pay. Average pay includes all bonus money.

All money paid to players hits the cap at some point.

The average cost to the team for a player is easily calculated after the player is gone.
Average Cost = Total Paid / Years Played

If Tyron plays to the end of his contract, the Cowboys will have paid him 97.6M for the 8 years starting in 2014.

That means he cost them 12.2M (on average) for each year he was on the contract.

You can't have a 97.6M, 8 year contract without the total cap hits for ALL years adding up to 97.6M.

There is no magic wand that makes cap hits disappear.

kskboys · Feb 14, 2019

OMG yes. W/o hesitation. And I like DLaw.

Leedscowboy · Feb 15, 2019

xwalker said:
You're ignoring the prorated money pushed into future years.

Maybe you are confusing salary with average pay. Average pay includes all bonus money.

All money paid to players hits the cap at some point.

The average cost to the team for a player is easily calculated after the player is gone.
Average Cost = Total Paid / Years Played

If Tyron plays to the end of his contract, the Cowboys will have paid him 97.6M for the 8 years starting in 2014.

That means he cost them 12.2M (on average) for each year he was on the contract.

You can't have a 97.6M, 8 year contract without the total cap hits for ALL years adding up to 97.6M.

There is no magic wand that makes cap hits disappear.

No, I am not ignoring prorated $$, you keep using average salary as a measure against the cap, that not how it works, its the cap hit on any given year not what what there average salary is, and on a year to year to basis each players salary is a different amount, also the base salary is not fixed, its only fixed for the season they have played future years are not accounted for as they have not earned it, they could POTENTIALLY earn this amount if they are on the roster.

Joe Flacco was just traded to the Broncos, the Ravens are not on the hooks for his base salary for 2019.

Sandyf · Feb 20, 2019

Hawkeye0202 said:
https://thebiglead.com/2019/01/10/the-7-biggest-nfl-free-agent-dominoes-to-fall-in-2019/5/

Perfect fit: Oakland Raiders

He’s 26 years old and he finished the 2018 regular season with 10.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception. In 2017, he had 14.5 sacks. Essentially, he’s a goldmine

Frankly IMO, that would be a stupid thing for Dallas to do. We have a good not yet great defense and giving up one of its three best player would only hurt the defense.

Would you tag and trade DLaw for two 1st round picks?

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