Dallas should explore Dak trade value

PhillySpecial · Apr 12, 2019

Wood said:
After Stephan comments about Dak needing to sign team friendly deal and Dak on record as saying there will be no discount...an impasse is coming. Rather than get into issue of is Dak good or not, what could Cowboy get in trade if long term deal can't be agreed upon.

Note:
Denver received TWO 1st & 3rd for Jay Cutler
Cincy received 1st & 2nd for Carson Palmer
Eagles received 1st & 4th round pick for Sam Bradford.

If your Stephan, what would you need back in trade?

Note: this is not to get into large debate about if Dallas should or shouldn't do this but merely an exercise in what you think his current trade value is.

The Eagles had just signed Bradford to a new contract and paid $11 million in bonus money. The Vikings traded a 1st and a 4th for Bradford + $11 million.

Jumbo075 · Apr 12, 2019

There is a fallacy in thinking the Cowboys would be better off by waiting to sign Dak until next year. DeMarcus Lawrence would have signed last year for 5 years, $85M and thought he got a good deal. This year, it cost the Cowboys a 5-year, $105M deal to get him signed. The Cowboys lost $20M by refusing to give him the deal last season.

If Dak is wililng to sign a 5 year extension for $28M per season now, then if he has another Pro Bowl season next year and wins in the playoffs again, his asking price will be in the $31-32M range. If he wins a Super Bowl, it is likely to be $35M per season (remember Joe Flacco?). So, the Cowboys have to choose between a $140M extension now, or a $160M extension later. Unlike Lawrence, who had only one good year before entering last season, Dak won Rookie of the Year in 2016, made the Pro Bowl in 2016 & 2018, and has led the team to 3 consecutive winning seasons, and a playoff win last year. He doesn't need a "Prove It" year to show consistency.

Given that Dak is scheduled to make $2M this season, let's take a look at how a $28M/season extension would impact the Cowboys - $140M with $75M guaranteed.

2019 - $37.025M cash paid - $2.025M Salary + $35M signing bonus
2020 - $25M cash paid - $1M Salary + $24M restructure bonus
2021 - $15M cash paid - $15M Salary
2022 - $18M cash paid - $18M Salary
2023 - $20M cash paid - $20M Salary
2024 - $27M cash paid - $27M Salary

Here are what the Salary CAP numbers look like over the same period with a 5-year, $140M extension, with $75M guaranteed:

2019 - CAP hit = $9,120,848 ($2,025,000 salary + $7,095,848 prorated bonuses) - DEAD Money = $75,095,848
2020 - CAP hit = $12.8M ($1M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $68M
2021 - CAP hit = $26.8M ($15M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $55.2M
2022 - CAP hit = $29.8M ($18M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $28.4M
2023 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($20M salary + 11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $16.6M
2024 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($27M salary + 4.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $4.8M

Note that the Cowboys get two more seasons of relatively low CAP hits at the QB position, then 1 year at $26.8M CAP hit; but, they are only actually paying Dak $15M in 2021 - much lower that what is likely to be the going rate of about $30-31M per season by then.

Also, starting in 2022, the DEAD Money CAP hit is actually less than the projected CAP hit, giving the Cowboys ways out of the contract in 2022 and 2023 if Dak's performance craters, and the Cowboys move on. So, CAP savings if Dak is cut or traded are:

2022 - $1.4M
2023 - $15.2M
2024 - $27M

The advantages to doing the deal now are 5-fold

Dak is happy because he gets paid, and isn't under the weight of having to perform and worry about his contract status
The Cowboys have a much more manageable situation for their salary CAP by being able to spread the signing bonus over 2019, in addition to 2020-2024
The Cowboys ultimately save money
The Cowboys get an earlier out on the contract if Dak's performance craters.
With Dak's contract done, the Cowboys can start working on extensions for Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones***

But they will be "stuck" with Dak for the next 3 seasons - something most fans and the front office are more than willing to risk.

That is a better deal than waiting for another season. If Dak remains consistent, which includes his inaccuracy and fumble issues, but also includes him leading the team to winning records, and winning playoff games, then you can expect his price tag next season to be in the $31-32M price range. Let's say they sign him next year to a 5-year $157.5M deal - averaging $31.5M per season. Even with signing bonuses, the CAP hits become much more problematic for the Cowboys. And if Dak happens to win a Super Bowl this coming season, his price likely goes to $35M per season. Even if Dak remains a mediocre QB, other mediocre QB's (like fellow 4th round pick Kirk Cousins) are getting $27M per season guaranteed contracts. That was last year. So $28M per season will soon be seen as a low starting salary for a top QB, and an average salary for an average QB.

*** Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones extensions are higher priority than Elliott and Jaylon Smith. Elliott can be retained by exercising his 5th year option, and Jaylon Smith is a restricted free agent next season, and Cowboys can tender him at a 1st round level to secure his services.

Cebrin · Apr 12, 2019

I think Dak is fully cable of doing his job, and I am well known for giving him as much grief as any.

ak47kaehu · Apr 12, 2019

Brilliant idea from our moron sector of the fan base....i still remember last year after the 2017 season the moron fan voice shouted "trade dak and sign cousins, bridewater, or fitzpatrick". Imagine how great that would have worked out. Whose it gonna be this year???? Mariota??? Allen??? Maybe Eli because he sets his feet and throws a pretty spiral?

America's Cowboy · Apr 12, 2019

DDS - Dak Derangement Syndrome is real, folks.

Believe it!

:facepalm:

buybuydandavis · Apr 12, 2019

Wood said:
After Stephan comments about Dak needing to sign team friendly deal and Dak on record as saying there will be no discount...an impasse is coming. Rather than get into issue of is Dak good or not, what could Cowboy get in trade if long term deal can't be agreed upon.

Note:
Denver received TWO 1st & 3rd for Jay Cutler
Cincy received 1st & 2nd for Carson Palmer
Eagles received 1st & 4th round pick for Sam Bradford.

If your Stephan, what would you need back in trade?

Note: this is not to get into large debate about if Dallas should or shouldn't do this but merely an exercise in what you think his current trade value is.

I like Dak. But I don't see an irreplacable QB. I don't even see a guy I want to sign to a 5 year contract in the mid 20mil per year. He might be that guy, but our staff ******** his growth and I don't see it yet.

For everyone having an aneurysm over the mere question of what you'd want in trade for Dak, answer another question - if Goodell played screw the Cowboys and *took* Dak, and gave him to another team with this current contract, what's the most you'd *pay* to get him back? The *most*.

Anything *more* than your most to get him back is what you should be willing to take to give him up.

Once you're talking two firsts, I'm in. I'm sure it matters for everyone just how high the pick is in the round. I'm thinking 20 and up, estimated.

Vinnie2u · Apr 12, 2019

If........ Cooper Rush is the second coming of Steve Young or Mike White is the second coming of
Aaron Rodgers. If not. Then you gotta play with the cards you are dealt.

Swagger · Apr 12, 2019

We have missed the boat on this one.

We should have traded Prescott for a king's ransom after the 2016 season - we could have then got Sam Darnold.

We missed the play offs in the 2017 season any way which was an utter disgrace given the strength of the roster.

Pompey-Cowboy · Apr 12, 2019

Ignoring the fact that many have missed the point of this thread, I am confident that this coming season is the one where Dak produces his best and puts all doubts to the sword. Next off season, threads such as this will be deemed unnecessary.

PAPPYDOG · Apr 12, 2019

Wood said:
After Stephan comments about Dak needing to sign team friendly deal and Dak on record as saying there will be no discount...an impasse is coming. Rather than get into issue of is Dak good or not, what could Cowboy get in trade if long term deal can't be agreed upon.

Note:
Denver received TWO 1st & 3rd for Jay Cutler
Cincy received 1st & 2nd for Carson Palmer
Eagles received 1st & 4th round pick for Sam Bradford.

If your Stephan, what would you need back in trade?

Note: this is not to get into large debate about if Dallas should or shouldn't do this but merely an exercise in what you think his current trade value is.

Figure a couple of Cheeseburgers throw in some fries and a no 3 pick or at best (long shot) a low 2nd .....

northerncowboynation · Apr 12, 2019

Wood said:
After Stephan comments about Dak needing to sign team friendly deal and Dak on record as saying there will be no discount...an impasse is coming. Rather than get into issue of is Dak good or not, what could Cowboy get in trade if long term deal can't be agreed upon.

Note:
Denver received TWO 1st & 3rd for Jay Cutler
Cincy received 1st & 2nd for Carson Palmer
Eagles received 1st & 4th round pick for Sam Bradford.

If your Stephan, what would you need back in trade?

Note: this is not to get into large debate about if Dallas should or shouldn't do this but merely an exercise in what you think his current trade value is.

What would Stephen want back? Let's see... trade your starting QB with two unknowns as back ups, I'm thinking lil \Stevie would want a starting QB back. Hence it won't happen before this draft because all the QB's are as unknown as the two back ups we already have. Who needs three unknown back up QBs??

Also as a small reminder, the teams that gave up those picks for Cutler, Palmer and Bradford got fleeced. Lil Stevie take note, beware, sheep without fleece get picked on in the barn yard
:muttley:

John813 · Apr 12, 2019

I think OP answered his own question.

It would include at least 1 first, and multiple high picks or another 1st.

Teams don't let go of young starting QB's. And in the cases where they do let go of a starting QB they get value back in picks.

That being said, don't believe the offseason public negotiating. They will get a deal done.

ItzKelz · Apr 12, 2019

Wood said:
After Stephan comments about Dak needing to sign team friendly deal and Dak on record as saying there will be no discount...an impasse is coming. Rather than get into issue of is Dak good or not, what could Cowboy get in trade if long term deal can't be agreed upon.

Note:
Denver received TWO 1st & 3rd for Jay Cutler
Cincy received 1st & 2nd for Carson Palmer
Eagles received 1st & 4th round pick for Sam Bradford.

If your Stephan, what would you need back in trade?

Note: this is not to get into large debate about if Dallas should or shouldn't do this but merely an exercise in what you think his current trade value is.

Absolutely we should trade Dak and let Mike White take over.....no wait

Stash · Apr 12, 2019

Jumbo075 said:
There is a fallacy in thinking the Cowboys would be better off by waiting to sign Dak until next year. DeMarcus Lawrence would have signed last year for 5 years, $85M and thought he got a good deal. This year, it cost the Cowboys a 5-year, $105M deal to get him signed. The Cowboys lost $20M by refusing to give him the deal last season.

If Dak is wililng to sign a 5 year extension for $28M per season now, then if he has another Pro Bowl season next year and wins in the playoffs again, his asking price will be in the $31-32M range. If he wins a Super Bowl, it is likely to be $35M per season (remember Joe Flacco?). So, the Cowboys have to choose between a $140M extension now, or a $160M extension later. Unlike Lawrence, who had only one good year before entering last season, Dak won Rookie of the Year in 2016, made the Pro Bowl in 2016 & 2018, and has led the team to 3 consecutive winning seasons, and a playoff win last year. He doesn't need a "Prove It" year to show consistency.

Given that Dak is scheduled to make $2M this season, let's take a look at how a $28M/season extension would impact the Cowboys - $140M with $75M guaranteed.

2019 - $37.025M cash paid - $2.025M Salary + $35M signing bonus
2020 - $25M cash paid - $1M Salary + $24M restructure bonus
2021 - $15M cash paid - $15M Salary
2022 - $18M cash paid - $18M Salary
2023 - $20M cash paid - $20M Salary
2024 - $27M cash paid - $27M Salary

Here are what the Salary CAP numbers look like over the same period with a 5-year, $140M extension, with $75M guaranteed:

2019 - CAP hit = $9,120,848 ($2,025,000 salary + $7,095,848 prorated bonuses) - DEAD Money = $75,095,848
2020 - CAP hit = $12.8M ($1M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $68M
2021 - CAP hit = $26.8M ($15M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $55.2M
2022 - CAP hit = $29.8M ($18M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $28.4M
2023 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($20M salary + 11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $16.6M
2024 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($27M salary + 4.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $4.8M

Note that the Cowboys get two more seasons of relatively low CAP hits at the QB position, then 1 year at $26.8M CAP hit; but, they are only actually paying Dak $15M in 2021 - much lower that what is likely to be the going rate of about $30-31M per season by then.

Also, starting in 2022, the DEAD Money CAP hit is actually less than the projected CAP hit, giving the Cowboys ways out of the contract in 2022 and 2023 if Dak's performance craters, and the Cowboys move on. So, CAP savings if Dak is cut or traded are:

2022 - $1.4M

2023 - $15.2M

2024 - $27M

The advantages to doing the deal now are 5-fold

Dak is happy because he gets paid, and isn't under the weight of having to perform and worry about his contract status

The Cowboys have a much more manageable situation for their salary CAP by being able to spread the signing bonus over 2019, in addition to 2020-2024

The Cowboys ultimately save money

The Cowboys get an earlier out on the contract if Dak's performance craters.

With Dak's contract done, the Cowboys can start working on extensions for Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones***

But they will be "stuck" with Dak for the next 3 seasons - something most fans and the front office are more than willing to risk.

That is a better deal than waiting for another season. If Dak remains consistent, which includes his inaccuracy and fumble issues, but also includes him leading the team to winning records, and winning playoff games, then you can expect his price tag next season to be in the $31-32M price range. Let's say they sign him next year to a 5-year $157.5M deal - averaging $31.5M per season. Even with signing bonuses, the CAP hits become much more problematic for the Cowboys. And if Dak happens to win a Super Bowl this coming season, his price likely goes to $35M per season. Even if Dak remains a mediocre QB, other mediocre QB's (like fellow 4th round pick Kirk Cousins) are getting $27M per season guaranteed contracts. That was last year. So $28M per season will soon be seen as a low starting salary for a top QB, and an average salary for an average QB.

*** Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones extensions are higher priority than Elliott and Jaylon Smith. Elliott can be retained by exercising his 5th year option, and Jaylon Smith is a restricted free agent next season, and Cowboys can tender him at a 1st round level to secure his services.

Tell us more about that 2018 "Pro Bowl nod". Exactly how many quarterbacks had to turn it down before Prescott could get in?

:huh:

Sydla · Apr 12, 2019

Irvin88_4life said:
First off no way you trade away your franchise QB that hasnt hit his prime yet but for the silly Dak haters i will say Dak would get 3 first round picks minimal. I would would take Baker Mayfield and a first and third this year.

He would not get three first rounders. No team would give that up.

And trading him would be silly at this point.

Pokes12 · Apr 12, 2019

Wood said:
After Stephan comments about Dak needing to sign team friendly deal and Dak on record as saying there will be no discount...an impasse is coming. Rather than get into issue of is Dak good or not, what could Cowboy get in trade if long term deal can't be agreed upon.

Note:
Denver received TWO 1st & 3rd for Jay Cutler
Cincy received 1st & 2nd for Carson Palmer
Eagles received 1st & 4th round pick for Sam Bradford.

If your Stephan, what would you need back in trade?

Note: this is not to get into large debate about if Dallas should or shouldn't do this but merely an exercise in what you think his current trade value is.

This is an insipid and dumb thread. Must be pre-draft doldrums. Why would you trade Dak and go into the season with no quarterback? So we could try and find a replacement for the next 3 or 4 years, wasting a good defense and a bunch of studs on offense. Dak will sign, or he won't but he is our QB for this season. Next stupid thread,,,,,

Hawkeye0202 · Apr 12, 2019

Jumbo075 said:
There is a fallacy in thinking the Cowboys would be better off by waiting to sign Dak until next year. DeMarcus Lawrence would have signed last year for 5 years, $85M and thought he got a good deal. This year, it cost the Cowboys a 5-year, $105M deal to get him signed. The Cowboys lost $20M by refusing to give him the deal last season.

If Dak is wililng to sign a 5 year extension for $28M per season now, then if he has another Pro Bowl season next year and wins in the playoffs again, his asking price will be in the $31-32M range. If he wins a Super Bowl, it is likely to be $35M per season (remember Joe Flacco?). So, the Cowboys have to choose between a $140M extension now, or a $160M extension later. Unlike Lawrence, who had only one good year before entering last season, Dak won Rookie of the Year in 2016, made the Pro Bowl in 2016 & 2018, and has led the team to 3 consecutive winning seasons, and a playoff win last year. He doesn't need a "Prove It" year to show consistency.

Given that Dak is scheduled to make $2M this season, let's take a look at how a $28M/season extension would impact the Cowboys - $140M with $75M guaranteed.

2019 - $37.025M cash paid - $2.025M Salary + $35M signing bonus
2020 - $25M cash paid - $1M Salary + $24M restructure bonus
2021 - $15M cash paid - $15M Salary
2022 - $18M cash paid - $18M Salary
2023 - $20M cash paid - $20M Salary
2024 - $27M cash paid - $27M Salary

Here are what the Salary CAP numbers look like over the same period with a 5-year, $140M extension, with $75M guaranteed:

2019 - CAP hit = $9,120,848 ($2,025,000 salary + $7,095,848 prorated bonuses) - DEAD Money = $75,095,848
2020 - CAP hit = $12.8M ($1M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $68M
2021 - CAP hit = $26.8M ($15M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $55.2M
2022 - CAP hit = $29.8M ($18M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $28.4M
2023 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($20M salary + 11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $16.6M
2024 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($27M salary + 4.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $4.8M

Note that the Cowboys get two more seasons of relatively low CAP hits at the QB position, then 1 year at $26.8M CAP hit; but, they are only actually paying Dak $15M in 2021 - much lower that what is likely to be the going rate of about $30-31M per season by then.

Also, starting in 2022, the DEAD Money CAP hit is actually less than the projected CAP hit, giving the Cowboys ways out of the contract in 2022 and 2023 if Dak's performance craters, and the Cowboys move on. So, CAP savings if Dak is cut or traded are:

2022 - $1.4M

2023 - $15.2M

2024 - $27M

The advantages to doing the deal now are 5-fold

Dak is happy because he gets paid, and isn't under the weight of having to perform and worry about his contract status

The Cowboys have a much more manageable situation for their salary CAP by being able to spread the signing bonus over 2019, in addition to 2020-2024

The Cowboys ultimately save money

The Cowboys get an earlier out on the contract if Dak's performance craters.

With Dak's contract done, the Cowboys can start working on extensions for Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones***

But they will be "stuck" with Dak for the next 3 seasons - something most fans and the front office are more than willing to risk.

That is a better deal than waiting for another season. If Dak remains consistent, which includes his inaccuracy and fumble issues, but also includes him leading the team to winning records, and winning playoff games, then you can expect his price tag next season to be in the $31-32M price range. Let's say they sign him next year to a 5-year $157.5M deal - averaging $31.5M per season. Even with signing bonuses, the CAP hits become much more problematic for the Cowboys. And if Dak happens to win a Super Bowl this coming season, his price likely goes to $35M per season. Even if Dak remains a mediocre QB, other mediocre QB's (like fellow 4th round pick Kirk Cousins) are getting $27M per season guaranteed contracts. That was last year. So $28M per season will soon be seen as a low starting salary for a top QB, and an average salary for an average QB.

*** Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones extensions are higher priority than Elliott and Jaylon Smith. Elliott can be retained by exercising his 5th year option, and Jaylon Smith is a restricted free agent next season, and Cowboys can tender him at a 1st round level to secure his services.

1000%.......for the life of me, can't understand why fans/posters can't see this. When you look at what this team was able to accomplish last year, even with all the issues, but STILL won the division and a playoff game. It's not a reach to think 2019 team can certainly reach the NFCCG and with a few breaks, even the Super Bowl. Like you said if this happens and he's still not signed the same $25-27M today won't even get him to the table. Bottom line, this team is set up to where his value is only going up......

QuincyCarterEra · Apr 12, 2019

Toruk_Makto said:
It would seem a rationale person would look at investing a 4th and minimal dollars and getting back a haul that includes a first and then some is good business.

Especially for a player that is limited.

General rule of thumb is trading a top 12ish QB who is only 25 years old is bad business. Patriots should have traded Brady after his rookie contract for a 1st since he was only a 6th rounder.

Especially if that really doesnt have many limitations.

QuincyCarterEra · Apr 12, 2019

stasheroo said:
Tell us more about that 2018 "Pro Bowl nod". Exactly how many quarterbacks had to turn it down before Prescott could get in?

At least Jumbo laid out the advantage for signing him now, so you can understand Stash!

But that was a mighty long post he had for you to nitpick five words out of.

Stash · Apr 12, 2019

Hawkeye0202 said:
1000%.......for the life of me, can't understand why fans/posters can't see this. When you look at what this team was able to accomplish last year, even with all the issues, but STILL won the division and a playoff game. It's not a reach to think 2019 team can certainly reach the NFCCG and with a few breaks, even the Super Bowl. Like you said if this happens and he's still not signed the same $25-27M today won't even get him to the table. Bottom line, this team is set up to where his value is only going up......

And what were those "issues" that you're mentioning? Wasn't the defense. Wasn't the NFL's leading rusher. So what's left? The passing game? Who's in charge of how that performs?

:huh:

Dallas should explore Dak trade value

PhillySpecial

Active Member

Jumbo075

Well-Known Member

Cebrin

Well-Known Member

ak47kaehu

Well-Known Member

America's Cowboy

Well-Known Member

buybuydandavis

Well-Known Member

Vinnie2u

Well-Known Member

Swagger

Well-Known Member

Pompey-Cowboy

Well-Known Member

PAPPYDOG

There are no Dak haters just Cowboy lovers!!!

northerncowboynation

Well-Known Member

John813

Well-Known Member

ItzKelz

Well-Known Member

Stash

Sydla

Well-Known Member

Pokes12

Well-Known Member

Hawkeye0202

Well-Known Member

QuincyCarterEra

Well-Known Member

QuincyCarterEra

Well-Known Member

Stash