Draft pick likelihood of success

Verdict · Apr 29, 2019

I haven’t studied the guys we picked at all but it will be interesting to see how they fare. Just based off of what I am hearing, here are a couple of observations:

Hill- Lots of conflicting info on this guy. The “traits” that I keep hearing about (very explosive for a big guy and quick first step” indicate he has a chance, but he seems to be listed as a late round guy who could be a steal late. Sounds like an overdraft to me. I’m willing to give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt on this one, but this has Marinelli all over it. So if he bombs I hope he takes Marinelli with him.

McGovern- The team referred to him as a blinking light based on draft value and we didn’t have to have a guard so they didn’t reach for need. Just based on team comments it sounds like this guy has the least chance of being a bust out of this class based on draft position.

Weber- Sounds like a good value pick that late in the draft. I’m glad we didn’t wait to pick up a RB in UDFA because no one is going to want to come and sit behind Zeke freely.

Jelk- Another blinking light comment on this guy. Based on these comments you expect that they had him high on their draft board.

If you go by what the talking heads say, then we reached a lot. If you believe in the Cowboys’ draft process then maybe we parlayed that compensatory 4th into a couple of solid players for us. If one of the 3 players they got for that pick hit, then it was a good move.

I think the Cowboys seem very confident in what they are wanting to accomplish. I will say this: I love the emphasis on the trenches on both sides.

Kage · Apr 29, 2019

I've heard Hill projected anywhere from round 2 to round 5. Hard to judge, but seems to be a round 1-2 talent.

McGovern gives us flexibility next year depending what happens with Collins and Williams.

Weber to me feels like replacing Dunbar from a few years ago.

Jelk, I haven't seen much on but I keep hearing he is a steal where we picked him.

DBOY3141 · Apr 29, 2019

Kage said:
I've heard Hill projected anywhere from round 2 to round 5. Hard to judge, but seems to be a round 1-2 talent.

McGovern gives us flexibility next year depending what happens with Collins and Williams.

Weber to me feels like replacing Dunbar from a few years ago.

Jelk, I haven't seen much on but I keep hearing he is a steal where we picked him.

think you are mixing up Pollard and Weber for Dunbar. Weber is strickly a runner. Pollard is more of a RB/WR/KR.

DBOY3141 · Apr 29, 2019

Verdict said:
I haven’t studied the guys we picked at all but it will be interesting to see how they fare. Just based off of what I am hearing, here are a couple of observations:

Hill- Lots of conflicting info on this guy. The “traits” that I keep hearing about (very explosive for a big guy and quick first step” indicate he has a chance, but he seems to be listed as a late round guy who could be a steal late. Sounds like an overdraft to me. I’m willing to give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt on this one, but this has Marinelli all over it. So if he bombs I hope he takes Marinelli with him.

McGovern- The team referred to him as a blinking light based on draft value and we didn’t have to have a guard so they didn’t reach for need. Just based on team comments it sounds like this guy has the least chance of being a bust out of this class based on draft position.

Weber- Sounds like a good value pick that late in the draft. I’m glad we didn’t wait to pick up a RB in UDFA because no one is going to want to come and sit behind Zeke freely.

Jelk- Another blinking light comment on this guy. Based on these comments you expect that they had him high on their draft board.

If you go by what the talking heads say, then we reached a lot. If you believe in the Cowboys’ draft process then maybe we parlayed that compensatory 4th into a couple of solid players for us. If one of the 3 players they got for that pick hit, then it was a good move.

I think the Cowboys seem very confident in what they are wanting to accomplish. I will say this: I love the emphasis on the trenches on both sides.

I think Wilson and Jelk are PS squad guys. Other one could be Joe Jackson, I think his fate will rest on whether Gregory gets reinstated. I heard he was filing for reinstatement within the month.

CATCH17 · Apr 29, 2019

Trysten Hill is the kind of player you can be excited about in the late 3rd or 4th round but overdrafting him in the 2nd is what makes me hate the pick.

He's just a piece of clay. Outside of that he is raw and this pick will take some work.

On top of that he had reduced playing time because evidently his coaches and him didn't get along.

I hate the value but Dallas rarely gets value in the 2nd round. IT's kinda been their round to get stupid.

OmerV · Apr 29, 2019

Verdict said:
I haven’t studied the guys we picked at all but it will be interesting to see how they fare. Just based off of what I am hearing, here are a couple of observations:

Hill- Lots of conflicting info on this guy. The “traits” that I keep hearing about (very explosive for a big guy and quick first step” indicate he has a chance, but he seems to be listed as a late round guy who could be a steal late. Sounds like an overdraft to me. I’m willing to give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt on this one, but this has Marinelli all over it. So if he bombs I hope he takes Marinelli with him.

McGovern- The team referred to him as a blinking light based on draft value and we didn’t have to have a guard so they didn’t reach for need. Just based on team comments it sounds like this guy has the least chance of being a bust out of this class based on draft position.

Weber- Sounds like a good value pick that late in the draft. I’m glad we didn’t wait to pick up a RB in UDFA because no one is going to want to come and sit behind Zeke freely.

Jelk- Another blinking light comment on this guy. Based on these comments you expect that they had him high on their draft board.

If you go by what the talking heads say, then we reached a lot. If you believe in the Cowboys’ draft process then maybe we parlayed that compensatory 4th into a couple of solid players for us. If one of the 3 players they got for that pick hit, then it was a good move.

I think the Cowboys seem very confident in what they are wanting to accomplish. I will say this: I love the emphasis on the trenches on both sides.

Hill was not listed as a late round guy after the combine. Most draft profiles had him listed as a 1st round talent who would go 2nd or 3rd round because of issues he had with coaches in college.

Verdict · Apr 29, 2019

Usually players who end is being listed as steals end up being really good players for you. Jason Witten and Demarco Murray were both players who were draft steals and look how they turned out. Jaylon is another.

It seems that the players referred to as “steals” that don’t end up planning out almost always fail due to character issues. It concerns me that the team needed to do a personal “contract” between Hill and Marinelli. If it is a concern on the front end it usually ends up being the player’s undoing.

SoupcanSam · Apr 29, 2019

I have confidence Michael Jackson will have the more success out of all draft picks.

His singing career should take off.

Verdict · Apr 29, 2019

OmerV said:
Hill was not listed as a late round guy after the combine. Most draft profiles had him listed as a 1st round talent who would go 2nd or 3rd round because of issues he had with coaches in college.

If a player shoots up the draft board based largely on measurables it tends to not go well. Lots of workout warriors did zero in the NFL. If the guy can play it should flash a lot on college tape against generally lesser competition.

big dog cowboy · Apr 29, 2019

Verdict said:
Hill- Lots of conflicting info on this guy. The “traits” that I keep hearing about (very explosive for a big guy and quick first step” indicate he has a chance, but he seems to be listed as a late round guy who could be a steal late. Sounds like an overdraft to me.

There is a method behind the madness on Hill. Either you see and understand and are fine with the pick or you don't. That's why there are mixed reviews.

Bobhaze · Apr 29, 2019

According a study done in Forbes magazine in 2015, here’s the likelihood of all NFL draft picks to become long term starters:

1st rounders- 29.9%
2nd rounders- 17.5%
3rd rounders- 12.6%
4th rounders- 10.8%
5th rounders- 6.4%
6th rounders- 4.9%
7th rounders- 4.2%
UFAs- 13.6%

The likelihood of Day 3 draft picks being a long term player for us in not very high. It happens of course, but to answer the OP question, below 3rd round picks are not likely to be impactful long term.

Link to article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe...nt-is-success-to-draft-position/#3010b49b7495

Verdict · Apr 29, 2019

CATCH17 said:
Trysten Hill is the kind of player you can be excited about in the late 3rd or 4th round but overdrafting him in the 2nd is what makes me hate the pick.

He's just a piece of clay. Outside of that he is raw and this pick will take some work.

On top of that he had reduced playing time because evidently his coaches and him didn't get along.

I hate the value but Dallas rarely gets value in the 2nd round. IT's kinda been their round to get stupid.

Seems like a classic boom or bust pick. I haven’t seen any tape on the guy, but the highlight tapes I saw didn’t give me any confidence in the pick.

Hennessy_King · Apr 29, 2019

big dog cowboy said:
There is a method behind the madness on Hill. Either you see and understand and are fine with the pick or you don't. That's why there are mixed reviews.

It's basically if you think marinelli is a good coach or not. I think marinelli is trash and should be coaching junior high so I'm not really feeling the pick that much.

OmerV · Apr 29, 2019

Verdict said:
If a player shoots up the draft board based largely on measurables it tends to not go well. Lots of workout warriors did zero in the NFL. If the guy can play it should flash a lot on college tape against generally lesser competition.

That's not an accurate depiction of Hill. He wasn't some obscure guy before the combine that opened their eyes because he is a workout warrior. He was considered to have 1st round talent before the combine, and he his status was only lowered because he and his new head coach in college butted heads. All the combine did was to move him closer to where he would have been projected otherwise.

Verdict · Apr 29, 2019

big dog cowboy said:
There is a method behind the madness on Hill. Either you see and understand and are fine with the pick or you don't. That's why there are mixed reviews.

Yeah but the question remains, which view is the right view? Is he FredBeard or Taco?

Verdict · Apr 29, 2019

OmerV said:
That's not an accurate depiction of Hill. He wasn't some obscure guy before the combine that opened their eyes because he is a workout warrior. He was considered to have 1st round talent before the combine, and he his status was only lowered because he and his new head coach in college butted heads. All the combine did was to move him closer to where he would have been projected otherwise.

I’m not sure how anyone could consider him a sure fire first rounder since he didn’t even start for his own team. That seems to be a stretch.

JayFord · Apr 29, 2019

It’s always 50/50

I didn’t think Jay Ratliff would be successful

I thought Claiborne was the second coming of Deion

No one expected Marques Colston to be a future hall of famer

And lastly Tom Brady

It comes down to can we coach these guys and. Get their max potential.....I don’t like the Hill pick but if you can get his max potential he’s going to be a nightmare he dang near gets off the ball as fast as Aaron donald

Verdict · Apr 29, 2019

Hennessy_King said:
It's basically if you think marinelli is a good coach or not. I think marinelli is trash and should be coaching junior high so I'm not really feeling the pick that much.

After all his “cheerleading routine” over his Ivey pick that didn’t make it out of training camp it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in the pick going in. I guess time will tell. I’m hoping he’s a good player for us.

DBOY3141 · Apr 29, 2019

Hennessy_King said:
It's basically if you think marinelli is a good coach or not. I think marinelli is trash and should be coaching junior high so I'm not really feeling the pick that much.

I think Rod is a good D line coach but a bad Def coordinator. His scheming just like JG is outdated and the NFL has passed them by.

OmerV · Apr 29, 2019

Verdict said:
I’m not sure how anyone could consider him a sure fire first rounder since he didn’t even start for his own team. That seems to be a stretch.

I didn't say "sure first rounder", I said 1st round talent. And he did start for his team, just not for much of his last season because of the conflict with the coaches. The question was never with his talent, it was with his attitude and coachability.

Draft pick likelihood of success

Verdict

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Kage

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DBOY3141

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CATCH17

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SoupcanSam

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big dog cowboy

THE BIG DOG

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