PFT: Which quarterbacks won’t get big-money long-term deal?

Stash

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An article from PFT that goes into detail about which quarterbacks will or won;t get their next big money deals:



Over the past few years, NFL teams have made a habit out of handing out new contract after new contract to quarterbacks, with in many cases the latest quarterback to sign becoming the highest-paid player in league history.

Since June 2017, Derek Carr passed Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford passed Carr, Jimmy Garoppolopassed Stafford, Kirk Cousins passed Garoppolo, Matt Ryan passed Cousins, Aaron Rodgers passed Ryan, and Russell Wilson passed Rodgers, pushing the maximum from $25 million per year to $35 million annually.

From those eight quarterbacks we move to another eight quarterbacks, each of whom have contracts lasting one or two years. There’s a growing sense that, at some point, a team faced with high salary demands from a quarterback will say, “No thanks,” trading the quarterback or letting him walk away via free agency. Here’s a look at the likelihood of that happening with any of eight quarterbacks whose contracts are coming up for renewal.

Carson Wentz, Eagles: Howie Roseman says that the team wouldn’t hesitate to do the right deal, for both organization and player. But what’s the right deal? Wentz may eventually fall somewhere in the $10 million divide between Carr’s $25 million per year and Wilson’s $35 million. For now, Wentz’s value is closer to the range of $25 million to $30 million. A season that doesn’t end with a December injury and does end with a Super Bowl appearance or something closer to it puts him in the range of $30 million to $35 million. (A Super Bowl win potentially would put him north of $35 million per year.) The real question is whether Wentz will accept the best offer made before Wentz embarks on a fourth NFL season that could dramatically increase his value, if he decides to roll the dice on his ability to continue to play.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys: Prescott quietly took a significant step in his development in the 2018 postseason, beating Russell Wilson in the wild-card round and then performing at a very high level against the Rams, at a time when the running game wasn’t giving Prescott the kind of support he usually has when playing well. For now, the sweet spot seems to be somewhere between $25 million and $28 million, especially since Prescott isn’t the quarterback of [insert name of not very relevant team] but is the quarterback of America’s Team. He already makes seven figures in endorsements, and that will continue as long as he quarterbacks a franchise that drives TV ratings like no other. Throw in the pathway to the broadcast booth that awaits his retirement, and Prescott would be wise to take whatever the Cowboys will offer, as long as he’s at least in the range of Garoppolo.


https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...arterbacks-wont-get-big-money-long-term-deal/
 

Little Jr

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Florio always talks about what Dak can make outside football and after football from being a cowboys QB. I dont see that having any influence on what Dak and his agent wants. There is now way the sweet spot is 25-28m. The floor starts at 28m.
 

DoctorChicken

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Either pay Dak market value, or someone else will. It’s that simple.

Whether you’re fine with that or not depends on what you think of Dak. But no argument can be made about what he should be paid. The market doesn’t argue.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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Florio always talks about what Dak can make outside football and after football from being a cowboys QB. I dont see that having any influence on what Dak and his agent wants. There is now way the sweet spot is 25-28m. The floor starts at 28m.
Yeah I don't think it does either. IF he ends up sucking and gets cut that money won't be available for him there anyway. HIs agent is going to play the now game. He's not worried about his money for after he's done with football.
 

Outlaw Heroes

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Florio always talks about what Dak can make outside football and after football from being a cowboys QB. I dont see that having any influence on what Dak and his agent wants. There is now way the sweet spot is 25-28m. The floor starts at 28m.

Dak is being poorly advised if he’s not being told to factor in what he can make in endorsements in Dallas as opposed to anywhere else he might land.
 

dckid

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Either pay Dak market value, or someone else will. It’s that simple.

Whether you’re fine with that or not depends on what you think of Dak. But no argument can be made about what he should be paid. The market doesn’t argue.

I don't think there will be too many takers for Dak. Maybe I am wrong or in the minority, I don't like paying out top QB money to an average QB. You are just setting yourself up for mediocrity.
I am all for going out and spending money for FA's and making your team better. I think Dak should get paid Nick Foles type money, Full stop.
I would prefer we go out and sign an Ensah, or Suh, or we should have tried to get additional defensive help, Safety, DT, more pass rushers.
Resign Cooper & pay Zeke these two earlier years. I do not want to sign Zeke after his 5th year. Keep Zeke motivated early and be able to walk away in 3 years. I would rather spend the Dak over-payment money on Coop & Zeke.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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I don't think there will be too many takers for Dak. Maybe I am wrong or in the minority, I don't like paying out top QB money to an average QB. You are just setting yourself up for mediocrity.
I am all for going out and spending money for FA's and making your team better. I think Dak should get paid Nick Foles type money, Full stop.
I would prefer we go out and sign an Ensah, or Suh, or we should have tried to get additional defensive help, Safety, DT, more pass rushers.
Resign Cooper & pay Zeke these two earlier years. I do not want to sign Zeke after his 5th year. Keep Zeke motivated early and be able to walk away in 3 years. I would rather spend the Dak over-payment money on Coop & Zeke.
But they always do. Teams always spend money on average QB's. With Dak...say what you want but there's a uncertainty there. Some team will have a QB guru and think they can get even more out of him. He is looked at as someone that has potential. We see it all the time with much worse qb's. Alex Smith, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins.....everyone is going to get paid in the prime of their careers at qb. Its up to the Cowboys to know what they have in Dak. We all trust their scouting when it comes to every other player on this team. Gotta trust it with Dak. They've been right thus far.
 

northerncowboynation

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An article from PFT that goes into detail about which quarterbacks will or won;t get their next big money deals:



Over the past few years, NFL teams have made a habit out of handing out new contract after new contract to quarterbacks, with in many cases the latest quarterback to sign becoming the highest-paid player in league history.

Since June 2017, Derek Carr passed Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford passed Carr, Jimmy Garoppolopassed Stafford, Kirk Cousins passed Garoppolo, Matt Ryan passed Cousins, Aaron Rodgers passed Ryan, and Russell Wilson passed Rodgers, pushing the maximum from $25 million per year to $35 million annually.

From those eight quarterbacks we move to another eight quarterbacks, each of whom have contracts lasting one or two years. There’s a growing sense that, at some point, a team faced with high salary demands from a quarterback will say, “No thanks,” trading the quarterback or letting him walk away via free agency. Here’s a look at the likelihood of that happening with any of eight quarterbacks whose contracts are coming up for renewal.

Carson Wentz, Eagles: Howie Roseman says that the team wouldn’t hesitate to do the right deal, for both organization and player. But what’s the right deal? Wentz may eventually fall somewhere in the $10 million divide between Carr’s $25 million per year and Wilson’s $35 million. For now, Wentz’s value is closer to the range of $25 million to $30 million. A season that doesn’t end with a December injury and does end with a Super Bowl appearance or something closer to it puts him in the range of $30 million to $35 million. (A Super Bowl win potentially would put him north of $35 million per year.) The real question is whether Wentz will accept the best offer made before Wentz embarks on a fourth NFL season that could dramatically increase his value, if he decides to roll the dice on his ability to continue to play.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys: Prescott quietly took a significant step in his development in the 2018 postseason, beating Russell Wilson in the wild-card round and then performing at a very high level against the Rams, at a time when the running game wasn’t giving Prescott the kind of support he usually has when playing well. For now, the sweet spot seems to be somewhere between $25 million and $28 million, especially since Prescott isn’t the quarterback of [insert name of not very relevant team] but is the quarterback of America’s Team. He already makes seven figures in endorsements, and that will continue as long as he quarterbacks a franchise that drives TV ratings like no other. Throw in the pathway to the broadcast booth that awaits his retirement, and Prescott would be wise to take whatever the Cowboys will offer, as long as he’s at least in the range of Garoppolo.


https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...arterbacks-wont-get-big-money-long-term-deal/

Nice post Stash. Now marry him off to a run way model and we be a'ight :)
 

Little Jr

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Dak is being poorly advised if he’s not being told to factor in what he can make in endorsements in Dallas as opposed to anywhere else he might land.
He's being poorly advise if he's being told to take that into account and take less money. The contract money is guaranteed , the off the field stuff isn't. This is a cut throat business. He can be injured a year from now and cut. He can be just cut in 3 years. Then he just passed up money because off the field money that will be no longer in play.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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Dak is being poorly advised if he’s not being told to factor in what he can make in endorsements in Dallas as opposed to anywhere else he might land.
How so? Those endorsements will come regardless with the Cowboys. His agent is taking the approach of I can get him 30 million and get the endorsements. Not I can get him 25 million and endorsements. His agent gets a cut of what he be making.
 

Hawkeye0202

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It seems to be market values now. Any starting qb is gonna get a big contract.


Bingo x 1000......not sure why it so hard for fans to understand this. The issue for NFL teams are deciding whether or not you have the right QB as your starter. If they do ( at least believe ) then he's going to cost at a min, the franchise north to keep. Notice the current issues with Winston, Dalton, and Mariota. All three are playing 2019 on contract year coz their teams can't decide if they are the long term-term answer as a starter, knowing it's going cost huge $$$$.
 

Sydla

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Florio always talks about what Dak can make outside football and after football from being a cowboys QB. I dont see that having any influence on what Dak and his agent wants. There is now way the sweet spot is 25-28m. The floor starts at 28m.

If the floor starts at $28MM, then the Cowboys would be wise to just let him play out 2019 and figure out what to do after that.

Because if the floor is $28MM, Dak is going to want more than that and if this team pays Dak Prescott say $30MM or more, that's total insanity.
 

DoctorChicken

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I don't think there will be too many takers for Dak. Maybe I am wrong or in the minority, I don't like paying out top QB money to an average QB. You are just setting yourself up for mediocrity.
I am all for going out and spending money for FA's and making your team better. I think Dak should get paid Nick Foles type money, Full stop.
I would prefer we go out and sign an Ensah, or Suh, or we should have tried to get additional defensive help, Safety, DT, more pass rushers.
Resign Cooper & pay Zeke these two earlier years. I do not want to sign Zeke after his 5th year. Keep Zeke motivated early and be able to walk away in 3 years. I would rather spend the Dak over-payment money on Coop & Zeke.

Jimmy Garoppolo got a contract worth $27m a year after he threw for 5 career TDs. You best believe someone will pay Dak.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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Bingo x 1000......not sure why it so hard for fans to understand this. The issue for NFL teams are deciding whether or not you have the right QB as your starter. If they do ( at least believe ) then he's going to cost at a min, the franchise north to keep. Notice the current issues with Winston, Dalton, and Mariota. All three are playing 2019 on contract year coz their teams can't decide if they are the long term-term answer as a starter, knowing it's going cost huge $$$$.
Because it hasn't happened yet. People are going to have to wait 6 years from now to see what people have been telling them. Everyone is going to get paid. Its where the markets going and where the salary cap is going. All these quarterbacks are going to get paid. The whole "No team has won a ring with a big money qb...." is going to be proven wrong too once this happens. It just happened yet. But the minute guys like Garapolo and Cousins got their money...it opened the flood gates.
 

Little Jr

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If the floor starts at $28MM, then the Cowboys would be wise to just let him play out 2019 and figure out what to do after that.

Because if the floor is $28MM, Dak is going to want more than that and if this team pays Dak Prescott say $30MM or more, that's total insanity.
Not insanity imo.

As far as the floor, cowboys I'm sure isn't coming in at 28m. That's the minimum they're going to get him for.

I don't see the purpose of letting him play it out. Unless you think he's going to bomb. Even if he had a year like the 2017 season, the money isn't going down. It will remain the same. If he has a year like 2016 or 2018, specifically the 2nd half of the 2018 season, it won't be 30m. Its going to be at least 32m. So if his 2016 and 2018 season didn't impress you and that player doesnt deserve 30m, then you're really going to think it's insanity when he gets 32m.
 

Hawkeye0202

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Because it hasn't happened yet. People are going to have to wait 6 years from now to see what people have been telling them. Everyone is going to get paid. Its where the markets going and where the salary cap is going. All these quarterbacks are going to get paid. The whole "No team has won a ring with a big money qb...." is going to be proven wrong too once this happens. It just happened yet. But the minute guys like Garapolo and Cousins got their money...it opened the flood gates.


So true......especially Garapolo who had what, 10 or less games as a starter but still got the mega deal.
 

Sydla

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Not insanity imo.

As far as the floor, cowboys I'm sure isn't coming in at 28m. That's the minimum they're going to get him for.

I don't see the purpose of letting him play it out. Unless you think he's going to bomb. Even if he had a year like the 2017 season, the money isn't going down. It will remain the same. If he has a year like 2016 or 2018, specifically the 2nd half of the 2018 season, it won't be 30m. Its going to be at least 32m. So if his 2016 and 2018 season didn't impress you and that player doesnt deserve 30m, then you're really going to think it's insanity when he gets 32m.

I am not sure about "bomb out" but I am in the camp of I am just not sure what kind of QB we have. I don't think he sucks or will suck but if I am paying a QB $30MM, making him one of the highest paid QBs in football, he better be much better than average and I am not sure he's significantly better than average.

I find the logic of "hey pay him essentially whatever he wants because his Top 5 contract won't be Top 5 in 4 years" to be some really dumb logic. It's how you end up with bad contracts. I mean shoot, why not sign Robert Quinn right now to a massive DE deal, locking him up long term, because hey, in 4 years that contract won't be a Top 5 DE contract!

To me, the risk of being handcuffed to an average QB making $30MM a year isn't worth it to save a few million per year by locking him up now.

Let him play out the last year of his rookie deal. If the cost goes from $27MM to $33MM because Dak played like a superstar? Great, I'll pay that because I will be more comfortable knowing that I have an elite QB making elite money. If he struggles or is just average or slightly above average? Then I know that locking him up long term at a huge number might not make financial sense to me. Then I can tag him (yes, I know for a big number but it's a one year number) and start sifting through plans for a longer term QB.
 
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