Fisher:The top five reasons to justify Dak as a $30M QB

Mr_437

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Without looking I bet none of those 5 reasons have anything to do with how good of a QB he is.
Wow you was right, Bro.

I just look at the titles w/o reading, and that was uninspiring.

The reason to give Dak a deal worth 30 is because in a few years it will look like an contract average??

What type of logic is that? You pay him because he's good...that's all.

The fact that Fish wrote "justify" in his title said it all. DLaw, Travis, Tyron n Zach didn't need a justify write up.
 

ABQCOWBOY

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There’s a laundry list of QBs who weren’t top 12 in the league and still won a Super Bowl. Eli Manning did it twice.

Dak’s plenty good enough. He’s played great football in all 3 of his career playoff games too.

The market changes are why Dak will be a “top 3-5 paid” QB. That’s not being overpaid, that’s the reality of a QB’s options once he hits the open market in 2019.

If EVERY NFL QB was a free agent this summer, Dak wouldn’t be one of the top 3-5 paid.

That's fine and I hope he is one of them but he hasn't proven that he is or will be. He can't even consistently beat the blitz as yet. I mean, he may eventually become that guy but saying he can be and saying he is are two very different things. It's a show me league, or at least it used to be.

BTW, Eli was a top 10 QB when he was winning Super Bowls, IMO.
 

Wood

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Pretty much the same reasoning for most fans......




Fisher is essentially another mouth piece for Cowboys sister ratio station. He knows he needs to say something nice to continue to have Jerry talk to him at events. Truth is Dallas shouldn't touch contract extension with Dak until he demonstrates he can lead red zone offense better than 52% from last year. Having Frederick back and new creative OC should help..but I would still want to see if he can make necessary tight throws down in red zone.
 

Flamma

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It's going to happen people.....it's the market value......supply and demand.

That's the thing, the demand isn't there. The Cowboys could Transition tag him and there might be 1 maybe 2 teams at most that would even consider offering him a contract. The Bengals and...…? And I highly doubt the Cowboys won't be able to match whatever that team offers him.
 

Hadenough

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Some here refuse to consider the word "Skill" when it pertains to our Dak.
All they care about is having the most expensive Bus Driver in the NFL no matter how much damage it does to our team.
Some people just dont learn even though you can look at the mistakes other teams have made! Vikings, 49rs, Lions. People are so afraid of not paying Dak its like they think there will be some mad rush for him if he becomes a FA. Dallas is too dumb to break the pattern from paying these jag QBs like they are elite.
 

StarBoyz83

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Dak is decent qb and I like him but he will be way overpaid but i hope he can become a top 10 qb in the next 4-6 years
 

PAPPYDOG

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Some people just dont learn even though you can look at the mistakes other teams have made! Vikings, 49rs, Lions. People are so afraid of not paying Dak its like they think there will be some mad rush for him if he becomes a FA. Dallas is too dumb to break the pattern from paying these jag QBs like they are elite.

Mad rush for Dak now thats funny......

 

Section446

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Not worth it. I'd rather make him prove he's a decent NFL QB this year and have to pay him $35 million next year.
 

SackMaster

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Feasible alternative is to draft.

His 20ish TD's that he passes for will be easy to replace.
Are you so sure? Lets start looking at all the 1st Round QBs from the past decade+

Starting with the 2018 Draft Class:
  1. Baker Mayfield
    1. #1 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 13 games
      1. With 27 TDs
        1. Prorated to just under 34 in 16 games
      2. But with 14 Ints
        1. Prorated to just over 17 Ints in 16 games
  2. Sam Darnold
    1. #3 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 13 games
      1. With 17 TDs
        1. Prorated to just under 21 in 16 games
      2. But with 15 Ints
        1. Prorated to just over 18 Ints in 16 games
  3. Josh Allen
    1. #7 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 11 games
      1. With 10 TDs
        1. Prorated to less than 15 TDs in 16 games
      2. But with 12 Ints
        1. Prorated to just over 17 Ints in 16 games
  4. Josh Rosen
    1. #10 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 13 games
      1. Threw 11 TDs
        1. Prorated to less than 14 TDs in 16 games
      2. But with 14 Ints
        1. Prorated to just over 17 Ints in 16 games
  5. Lamar Jackson
    1. #32 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 7 games
      1. Threw 6 TDs
        1. Prorated to less than 14 TDs in 16 games
      2. With only 3 Ints
        1. Prorated to just under 7 Ints in 16 games

So only one QB (Mayfield) Topped Prescott's career low of 22 TDs. And only one was under Prescott's career high for Ints in a season (Jackson). Then on top of that, 3 of the 5 was on schedule to throw for less than a TD per start. ouch.​

How about 2017?

Trubisky? Very Dak-like with 24 TDs and 12 Ints his 2nd year. And Watson also a pretty Dak-like with 26 TDs and 9 Ints last year as well. Only Mahomes is CLEARLY better than Dak. So 1 of 3 there.​

How about 2016?

2 of 3 have put up better passing TDs than Dak (Goff and Wentz), but both also have their issues as well (not clutch and injury prone). The third 1st Round QB? Lynch (#26 overall) is NO LONGER IN THE NFL and has 4 CAREER TDs.​

How about 2015?

Winston and Mariota have a combined 2 seasons (out of 8) where they passed for more than 22 TDs in a season. And they only have 3 combined seasons of 20+ TDs between them.​

How about 2014?

Bortles, Manzel and Bridgewater have a combined 2 seasons (out of 11) where they passed for more than 22 TDs in a season. Bortles has both, a 23 TD year in 2016 and an completely out of character 35 TD season in 2015.​

How about 2013?

Only one first round QB that year, Manual, and his career high in Passing TDs was 11 his rookie year.​

How about 2012?

Between Luck, Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden, only 8 seasons (out of 27) between them with more than 22 Passing TDs in a season, and Luck owns 5 of those seasons. The rest are 3 of 20.​

How about 2011?

Between Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder, they have a combine 3 seasons (out of 26) between them with more than 22 Passing TDs. All 3 belong to Cam, and 2 of the 3 he topped out at 24 TDs those two years.​

How about 2010?

Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow failed to throw for at least 22 TDs between them (Bradford's career high was 21)​

How about 2009?

Between Stafford, Sanchez, and Freeman, only 8 seasons (out of 27) where they threw for more than 22 Passing TDs in a season. And much like Luck in 2012, Stafford owns 5 of those.​

How about 2008?

Matt Ryan has beaten 22 Passing TDs in a season in 7 of his 11 career years. (pretty good). The other 1st Round QB Joe Flacco? Only 2 of his 11 career years did he top 22 passing TDs.​


So over a DECADE of 1st Round QBs, and if you are LUCKY (no pun attended), you have less than a 25% chance of drafting someone who can put up significantly higher than 22 TDs a season during most of their seasons.

Therefore, unless you know you are drafting one of the "special" guys, like Ryan, Stafford, Luck or Mahomes, there is a better chance than not that you are drafting a QB in the first round, that MAY produce as good as Dak.

So much for it being "easy" to replacing Dak's passing TD production.


P.S. After looking at the 1st Round QBs of the past decade, I was even shocked on how infrequently 1st Round QBs hit the "22+ Passing TD Benchmark". Therefore, I have come to appreciate Dak even that much more than I did before. And heaven help the "Dak haters" if he ever puts up a 30+ Passing TD season. Oh, those will be fun times.
:flagwave::popcorn::grin:
 

InTheZone

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Are you so sure? Lets start looking at all the 1st Round QBs from the past decade+

Starting with the 2018 Draft Class:
  1. Baker Mayfield
    1. #1 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 13 games
      1. With 27 TDs
        1. Prorated to just under 34 in 16 games
      2. But with 14 Ints
        1. Prorated to just over 17 Ints in 16 games
  2. Sam Darnold
    1. #3 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 13 games
      1. With 17 TDs
        1. Prorated to just under 21 in 16 games
      2. But with 15 Ints
        1. Prorated to just over 18 Ints in 16 games
  3. Josh Allen
    1. #7 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 11 games
      1. With 10 TDs
        1. Prorated to less than 15 TDs in 16 games
      2. But with 12 Ints
        1. Prorated to just over 17 Ints in 16 games
  4. Josh Rosen
    1. #10 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 13 games
      1. Threw 11 TDs
        1. Prorated to less than 14 TDs in 16 games
      2. But with 14 Ints
        1. Prorated to just over 17 Ints in 16 games
  5. Lamar Jackson
    1. #32 overall pick in the 2018 Draft
    2. Started 7 games
      1. Threw 6 TDs
        1. Prorated to less than 14 TDs in 16 games
      2. With only 3 Ints
        1. Prorated to just under 7 Ints in 16 games

So only one QB (Mayfield) Topped Prescott's career low of 22 TDs. And only one was under Prescott's career high for Ints in a season (Jackson). Then on top of that, 3 of the 5 was on schedule to throw for less than a TD per start. ouch.​

How about 2017?

Trubisky? Very Dak-like with 24 TDs and 12 Ints his 2nd year. And Watson also a pretty Dak-like with 26 TDs and 9 Ints last year as well. Only Mahomes is CLEARLY better than Dak. So 1 of 3 there.​

How about 2016?

2 of 3 have put up better passing TDs than Dak (Goff and Wentz), but both also have their issues as well (not clutch and injury prone). The third 1st Round QB? Lynch (#26 overall) is NO LONGER IN THE NFL and has 4 CAREER TDs.​

How about 2015?

Winston and Mariota have a combined 2 seasons (out of 8) where they passed for more than 22 TDs in a season. And they only have 3 combined seasons of 20+ TDs between them.​

How about 2014?

Bortles, Manzel and Bridgewater have a combined 2 seasons (out of 11) where they passed for more than 22 TDs in a season. Bortles has both, a 23 TD year in 2016 and an completely out of character 35 TD season in 2015.​

How about 2013?

Only one first round QB that year, Manual, and his career high in Passing TDs was 11 his rookie year.​

How about 2012?

Between Luck, Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden, only 8 seasons (out of 27) between them with more than 22 Passing TDs in a season, and Luck owns 5 of those seasons. The rest are 3 of 20.​

How about 2011?

Between Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder, they have a combine 3 seasons (out of 26) between them with more than 22 Passing TDs. All 3 belong to Cam, and 2 of the 3 he topped out at 24 TDs those two years.​

How about 2010?

Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow failed to throw for at least 22 TDs between them (Bradford's career high was 21)​

How about 2009?

Between Stafford, Sanchez, and Freeman, only 8 seasons (out of 27) where they threw for more than 22 Passing TDs in a season. And much like Luck in 2012, Stafford owns 5 of those.​

How about 2008?

Matt Ryan has beaten 22 Passing TDs in a season in 7 of his 11 career years. (pretty good). The other 1st Round QB Joe Flacco? Only 2 of his 11 career years did he top 22 passing TDs.​


So over a DECADE of 1st Round QBs, and if you are LUCKY (no pun attended), you have less than a 25% chance of drafting someone who can put up significantly higher than 22 TDs a season during most of their seasons.

Therefore, unless you know you are drafting one of the "special" guys, like Ryan, Stafford, Luck or Mahomes, there is a better chance than not that you are drafting a QB in the first round, that MAY produce as good as Dak.

So much for it being "easy" to replacing Dak's passing TD production.


P.S. After looking at the 1st Round QBs of the past decade, I was even shocked on how infrequently 1st Round QBs hit the "22+ Passing TD Benchmark". Therefore, I have come to appreciate Dak even that much more than I did before. And heaven help the "Dak haters" if he ever puts up a 30+ Passing TD season. Oh, those will be fun times.
:flagwave::popcorn::grin:
If I had to guess none of them had the best rb and 3 best OL at their respective positions. And in no way am I saying those players would be special here. Just take our QB, put him on those teams whose qb you think less of, and tell me Dak repeats 2016. We've already seen the real version of him in 2017 and 2018.

I said it before the Dak hype, this organization is building a team around the QB to allow almost any QB to be successful. Don't confuse that with Daks abilities, not saying he can't do anything good on his own either.
 

SackMaster

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If I had to guess none of them had the best rb and 3 best OL at their respective positions. And in no way am I saying those players would be special here. Just take our QB, put him on those teams whose qb you think less of, and tell me Dak repeats 2016. We've already seen the real version of him in 2017 and 2018.

I said it before the Dak hype, this organization is building a team around the QB to allow almost any QB to be successful. Don't confuse that with Daks abilities, not saying he can't do anything good on his own either.
Yet the complete opposite could happen and Dak could be MORE productive if
  1. Dak played in a somewhat modern NFL offense
  2. One that is way less predictable
  3. One that did not have EVERY receiver on some 3rd downs run DIRECTLY TO a defender and just turn around
  4. One that gave him the proper receiving threats instead of a can't run Witten and a broken down Dez
But that is what is so "great" about the "If Game". You can take your agenda and find things that can support it no matter what side you are on.

I love how you stated this: "this organization is building a team around the QB to allow almost any QB to be successful". Except for the 3 QBs (Cassel, Weeden and Moore) between Dak and Romo who went 1-11 in 12 starts just the year prior?

They still had the benefit of "3 best OL at their respective positions" and while they did not have Elliot (aka "best rb") the Cowboys still produced a Top-10 rushing offense behind, again, "3 best OL at their respective positions"
So let's keep perpetuating the lie that Dak is ONLY successful due to the team around him.

While I would not argue against that he is in a great situation, "almost any QB" would have not been successful under the Garrett/Linehan regime. In fact, I count 2 of 5 (and that does not include all the failures as an OC/HC Linehan had before Dallas).

The only way I could see that statement becoming even somewhat true is if Moore's offense is really good or revolutionary AND Garrett lets him run it his way.
 

Hadenough

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If I had to guess none of them had the best rb and 3 best OL at their respective positions. And in no way am I saying those players would be special here. Just take our QB, put him on those teams whose qb you think less of, and tell me Dak repeats 2016. We've already seen the real version of him in 2017 and 2018.

I said it before the Dak hype, this organization is building a team around the QB to allow almost any QB to be successful. Don't confuse that with Daks abilities, not saying he can't do anything good on his own either.
If you really think about since 2016 Zeke has been the reason they have been winning. Dak has just been a passenger in this run fueled offense. This offense goes at Zeke goes. When he has a good game they win and when he has a bad game they lose. When he isn't there they lose. Without Zeke this team isn't making the playoffs.
 

Philmonroe

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That's some real pretzel twisting here.

Catch is right. There is pretty much nothing in that article that says Dak should be signed to $30MM because he's a great QB. It's all reasons that have nothing to do with Dak himself.
Honestly I just want him to get his big payday and see if folks will be as worried about how nice he is if he continues to play like Alex Smith Jr.
 

Bob-Lillys-War

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Top 5 Reasons..

Other Teams, others QBs, the market of SB caliber QBs, etc...

Reasons based on results ? = 0 .
 

csirl

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So much for it being "easy" to replacing Dak's passing TD production.


P.S. After looking at the 1st Round QBs of the past decade, I was even shocked on how infrequently 1st Round QBs hit the "22+ Passing TD Benchmark". Therefore, I have come to appreciate Dak even that much more than I did before. And heaven help the "Dak haters" if he ever puts up a 30+ Passing TD season. Oh, those will be fun times.
:flagwave::popcorn::grin:

TD passes is a poor way to.judge QBs - its the most meaningless of the components of a QBR as it is has little correlation with the QBs skills and is most influenced by other factors.
 

ICP

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That's not the only other option.

The Cowboys have a few options:

1) They could sign him now:

2) They could let him play out the 2019 season under his rookie deal.
  • If he plays well, you have two options
    1. Try to negotiate a long term deal or.......
    2. Tag him
  • If he plays poorly, you have two options
    1. Cut him free and look for another QB or...........
    2. Tag him while you look to draft another young QB
I prefer option B but I know that's not what's going to happen
 

SackMaster

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TD passes is a poor way to.judge QBs - its the most meaningless of the components of a QBR as it is has little correlation with the QBs skills and is most influenced by other factors.
Oh, I don't disagree. Yet that is one of the, if not the, biggest "results based" argument that the anti-Dak posters use "to show" he is not a good QB.

Yet "results wise", Dak has done nothing but help produce winning seasons every year he has been in the league. And doing so despite
  • "The best RB in the NFL" being suspended for 6 games
  • Our "All-Pro" Left Tackle missing 3 games every year Dak has been in the NFL
  • Our Left Guard position that has had a new starter every year he has been here
  • Our "All-Pro" Center missing an entire season
  • Our Right Tackle that many believe "is better at OG" and should not be resigned when his contract is up
  • A defense, that in 2 of his 3 years, would crumble when Sean Lee missed any playing time whatsoever
  • And a defense that is closer to the bottom of the league in takeaways, than the top
Sure, Dak can get better. Never said he could not. But the lies that he is only a product of the team that surrounds him and that his production could be easily replaced, is stupid, at best.
 
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