Super Bowl QBs (cost as % of cap)

xwalker

xwalker

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Review of past 12 Super Bowl winning QB contracts.

Notes:
  • Tom Brady is an exception (plays for a discount).
    • His company TB12 gets paid by Patriots.
      • Provides health/wellness services/products.
      • Facilities at Patriots Headquarters.
    • His wife makes more than him.
Year ...... Player .............. Contract Type
2007 ….. E.Manning ....... Rookie Contract
2008 ….. Roethlisberger . Vet Contract
2009 ….. D.Brees ........... Vet Contract
2010 ….. A.Rodgers ....... Vet Contract
2011 ….. E.Manning ....... Vet Contract
2012 ….. J.Flacco ........... Rookie Contract
2013 ….. R.Wilson .......... Rookie Contract
2014 ….. T.Brady ............ Tom Brady
2015 ….. P.Manning ....... Vet Contract
2016 ….. T.Brady ............ Tom Brady
2017 ….. N.Foles ............ Backup
2018 ….. T.Brady ............ Tom Brady

Notes:
Using cap hits in specific years to determine a players cost as a percent of the cap is meaningless.
Example (Player signs 2 year, 20M contract):
  • Year 1 cap hit: 4M (~2% of 2019 cap)
  • Year 2 cap hit: 16M (~8% of 2019 cap)
  • The contract average provides the true cost of the player.
  • Contract Average 10M (~5% of 2019 cap)

Removing Brady and players on rookie contracts:

Year ...... Player .............. Percent of NFL Cap
2008 ….. Roethlisberger . 17%
2009 ….. D.Brees ............ 08%
2010 ….. A.Rodgers ....... 13%
2011 ….. E.Manning ....... 15%
2015 ….. P.Manning ....... 13%

Note: The above is based on Actual AAV which is different than listed (advertised AAV).

For reference:
30M is ~15% of 2019 cap (projects to 12.5% in 5th year of 5 year contract)
35m is ~17.5% of 2019 cap (projects to 14.6% in 5th year of 5 year contract)


Actual Contract AAV vs Listed Contract AAV

Example:
If a player on a 4 year, 20M rookie contract signs an extension in year 4.

The Listed AAV is 21M (5 years, 105M contract)
1 rookie 5M
2 rookie 5M
3 rookie 5M
1 extension 21M << replaces rookie year 4
2 extension 21M
3 extension 21M
4 extension 21M
5 extension 21M

The Actual AAV is 25M (4 years, 100M)
1 rookie 5M
2 rookie 5M
3 rookie 5M
4 rookie 5M
1 extension 25M
2 extension 25M
3 extension 25M
4 extension 25M

Note:
Effective AAV is different than Listed or Actual AAV.

Effective AAV is the exact amount paid to player on a contract divided by the number of years the player played on that contract. If a player is cut before the end of his contract, then his effective AAV will be higher because his signing bonus will be averaged over less years.
 
Kaiser

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xwalker said:
His wife makes more than him.
Click to expand...

Not only did Brady marry someone worth 400 Million, but he was worth 300 to 400 Million by the time he signed that extension.

If you take the low end of that, invest it conservatively and pay the highest rates rates possible - you are still taking home about 500K a month in Capital Gains income.
 
speedkilz88

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Kaiser said:
Not only did Brady marry someone worth 400 Million, but he was worth 300 to 400 Million by the time he signed that extension.

If you take the low end of that, invest it conservatively and pay the highest rates rates possible - you are still taking home about 500K a month in Capital Gains income.
Click to expand...
Brady also has a company that does business with the Patriots. Nice way to circumvent the cap.
 
DasSchnitzel

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xwalker said:
Review of past 12 Super Bowl winning QB contracts.

Notes:
  • Tom Brady is an exception (plays for a discount).
    • His company TB12 gets paid by Patriots.
      • Provides health/wellness services/products.
      • Facilities at Patriots Headquarters.
    • His wife makes more than him.
Year ...... Player .............. Contract Type
2007 ….. E.Manning ....... Rookie Contract
2008 ….. Roethlisberger . Vet Contract
2009 ….. D.Brees ........... Vet Contract
2010 ….. A.Rodgers ....... Vet Contract
2011 ….. E.Manning ....... Vet Contract
2012 ….. J.Flacco ........... Rookie Contract
2013 ….. R.Wilson .......... Rookie Contract
2014 ….. T.Brady ............ Tom Brady
2015 ….. P.Manning ....... Vet Contract
2016 ….. T.Brady ............ Tom Brady
2017 ….. N.Foles ............ Backup
2018 ….. T.Brady ............ Tom Brady

Notes:
Using cap hits in specific years to determine a players cost as a percent of the cap is meaningless.
Example (Player signs 2 year, 20M contract):
  • Year 1 cap hit: 4M (~2% of 2019 cap)
  • Year 2 cap hit: 16M (~8% of 2019 cap)
  • The contract average provides the true cost of the player.
  • Contract Average 10M (~5% of 2019 cap)
Removing Brady and players on rookie contracts:

Year ...... Player .............. Percent of NFL Cap
2008 ….. Roethlisberger . 17%
2009 ….. D.Brees ............ 08%
2010 ….. A.Rodgers ....... 13%
2011 ….. E.Manning ....... 15%
2015 ….. P.Manning ....... 13%

Note: The above is based on Actual AAV which is different than listed (advertised AAV).

For reference:
30M is ~15% of 2019 cap (projects to 12.5% in 5th year of 5 year contract)
35m is ~17.5% of 2019 cap (projects to 14.6% in 5th year of 5 year contract)


Actual Contract AAV vs Listed Contract AAV

Example:
If a player on a 4 year, 20M rookie contract signs an extension in year 4.

The Listed AAV is 21M (5 years, 105M contract)
1 rookie 5M
2 rookie 5M
3 rookie 5M
1 extension 21M << replaces rookie year 4
2 extension 21M
3 extension 21M
4 extension 21M
5 extension 21M

The Actual AAV is 25M (4 years, 100M)
1 rookie 5M
2 rookie 5M
3 rookie 5M
4 rookie 5M
1 extension 25M
2 extension 25M
3 extension 25M
4 extension 25M

Note:
Effective AAV is different than Listed or Actual AAV.

Effective AAV is the exact amount paid to player on a contract divided by the number of years the player played on that contract. If a player is cut before the end of his contract, then his effective AAV will be higher because his signing bonus will be averaged over less years.
Click to expand...

So here are my takeaways:

1) 8% to 17% is a wide range. I imagine that in the years listed, a vast majority of QBs fell in that range. In 2019 dollars, using the OP's numbers, 15% is about 30M. So 8% to 17% is roughly 16M to 34M, which is most starting QBs. My takeaway here is that there isnt much correlation with SB status and vet contract cap percentage.

2) Just considering 30M for 2019 alone, we know we can afford that. Itll get structured appropriately and be no big deal. So in terms of 2019, being in the top half of that list at 15% is doable. By 2020 that's down to about 12%, in the bottom half of the list. The OP doesnt project further but it stands to reason the cap percentage will continue to decrease, unless they stop the cap expansion. So 30M is looking healthy.

This only reinforces my opinion that we should sign him. There's zero reason to believe Dak isnt a Cowboy for the next handful of years at least. We can afford him in the 2019 cap. Just do it now or we're having the same conversations next summer but with bigger numbers.
 
Kaiser

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speedkilz88 said:
Brady also has a company that does business with the Patriots. Nice way to circumvent the cap.
Click to expand...

What a coinky-dink. I'm sure there is some element of that on every team, for Practice Squad guys or minimum salary Kavon Frazier types it isn't hard to steer them endorsement deals and speaking fees.

But Tom Brady was years and years past ever having to think about money when he met his current wife and/or signed his current contract.
 
Screw The Hall

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Corso said:
I think I kind of want to go watch that Godzilla movie...

Oh! And good post! No wonder Dez keeps throwing up the X.

So... do you support giving Dak a boatload of money?
Click to expand...

I grew up a humongous Godzilla fan, I was disappointed.

I didn’t expect “The Godfather” ... but if you have a genre heavily dependent on monster clashes, then for all that’s holy, perfect that craft.

*Spoiler alert*

Instead for the 1st 2 hours of the movie you couldn’t count to 10 (literally, I tried) without senseless cutting to the humans during the best parts, which ruined what could have been dynamic monster fighting scenes.

The last 30 minutes of the movie they finally figured this out and gave all diehards what they wanted, but by that time I already hated all the characters, except the monsters, and was pretty much in a coma.
 
Corso

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Screw The Hall said:
I grew up a humongous Godzilla fan, I was disappointed.

I didn’t expect “The Godfather” ... but if you have a genre heavily dependent on monster clashes, then for all that’s holy, perfect that craft.

*Spoiler alert*

Instead for the 1st 2 hours of the movie you couldn’t count to 10 (literally, I tried) without senseless cutting to the humans during the best parts, which ruined what could have been dynamic monster fighting scenes.

The last 30 minutes of the movie they finally figured this out and gave all diehards what they wanted, but by that time I already hated all the characters, except the monsters, and was pretty much in a coma.
Click to expand...
I completely expected this. Thank you!
 
Jake

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speedkilz88 said:
Brady also has a company that does business with the Patriots. Nice way to circumvent the cap.
Click to expand...

Brady could play video games in the offseason and it wouldn't matter. His discount is all about his super model wife.
 
xwalker

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Example of Actual AAV vs Listed AAV

Eli Manning won a Super Bowl for the 2011 season.
He was playing on a contract signed in 2009.

Contract History
  • Contract Type . . Year Signed . . Yrs . .. . . . . Total
  • Drafted . . . . . . . . 2004 . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . 47.99
  • Extension . . . . . . 2009 . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . 97.5
  • Extension . . . . . . 2015 . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . 84


For the 2009 contract:
  • Listed AAV = 16.250M (97.500M divided by 6 years)
  • Actual AAV = 17.92M (89.6M divided by 5 years)

Listed Contract History (at time the 2009 contract was signed)
  • 5 years rookie (paid 40.09M)
  • 6 years extension = 97.500M (AAV = 16.250M)
  • Total over 11 years = 137.59M (40.09M + 97.500M)

Actual Contract History (at time the 2009 contract was signed)
  • 6 years rookie contract (47.990M)
  • 5 years new contract = 89.6M (AAV = 17.92M)
  • Total over 11 years = 137.59M (47.990M + 89.6M)
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Corso said:
I think I kind of want to go watch that Godzilla movie...

Oh! And good post! No wonder Dez keeps throwing up the X.

So... do you support giving Dak a boatload of money?
Click to expand...

Yes, but do it NOW. Please for the good of the team.

So get on it Corso, we believe in you.
 
jazzcat22

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Can Witten get past the 1st down marker and can Dak get him the ball?
That is all I want to see.
:lmao:

Thanks for the interesting info though. Nice research.
 
MyFairLady

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speedkilz88 said:
Brady also has a company that does business with the Patriots. Nice way to circumvent the cap.
Click to expand...
This can't be true. It would be such a clear violation of interest I can't possibly imagine this would be allowed to happen.
 
MyFairLady

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Interesting post by the OP. I guess it means that if you wanna win a super bowl either get lucky with a guy on a rookie deal of be prepared to pay a QB big bucks. There is no questions Dak should be asking for big bucks. The question still remains is Dak worth the big bucks. Then again what else you gonna do.
 
xwalker

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DasSchnitzel said:
So here are my takeaways:

1) 8% to 17% is a wide range. I imagine that in the years listed, a vast majority of QBs fell in that range. In 2019 dollars, using the OP's numbers, 15% is about 30M. So 8% to 17% is roughly 16M to 34M, which is most starting QBs. My takeaway here is that there isnt much correlation with SB status and vet contract cap percentage.

2) Just considering 30M for 2019 alone, we know we can afford that. Itll get structured appropriately and be no big deal. So in terms of 2019, being in the top half of that list at 15% is doable. By 2020 that's down to about 12%, in the bottom half of the list. The OP doesnt project further but it stands to reason the cap percentage will continue to decrease, unless they stop the cap expansion. So 30M is looking healthy.

This only reinforces my opinion that we should sign him. There's zero reason to believe Dak isnt a Cowboy for the next handful of years at least. We can afford him in the 2019 cap. Just do it now or we're having the same conversations next summer but with bigger numbers.
Click to expand...

Brees at 8% was a bit of an outlier.
  • He signed a bargain contract for 10M AAV in 2006.
  • Brees had a shoulder injury just before becoming a free agent.
  • Brady had signed a 12M AAV contract in 2005.
Based on the data, I would say the range was really 13% to 17% for Super Bowl winning QB that signed new contracts under normal conditions.

If the cap increased 10M per year, then the average cap for 5 years starting in 2019 will be about 220M.

Using the 220M average cap for a 5 year contract starting in 2019:
13% = 28.6M
17% = 37.4M

30M = 13.64%
25M = 15.91%
 
DandyDon52

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Brady has won 3 of the last 5 SB's so his lower salary must be helping,
From 2007 to 2013 brady did not win a SB then 3 of 5 ! Hmmm
 
Jarv

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speedkilz88 said:
Brady also has a company that does business with the Patriots. Nice way to circumvent the cap.
Click to expand...
Okay, Dak and Jerry should do the same....10 million a year. Dak should sub-contract a valet for Jerry.
 
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