Might Dak/WRs/Moore make Zeke expendable?

Rockport · Jun 22, 2019

Reid1boys said:
why does anyone think franchising Zeke is ok, but doing it to Dak is wrong> We need to keep Zeke at all costs until he is no longer the player he is today. I personally would franchise Dak this year, and I would franchise Zeke for 2 years after that and NOT have to give up a long term deal. Hey, if you give me a set of rules to play by, and I am management, IM going to play by those rules to do what is best for the team.

Exactly. It would be smart to extend him now so we have him for the best years of his career.

beware_d-ware · Jun 23, 2019

QuincyCarterEra said:
Dak has had the same amount of rushing TDs all three years, but Zeke's lack of TDs last year is now because Dak vultures them?

Want me to teach you the actual reason?

Zeke had the 6th highest % of redzone rushes for a player on any team in the league last year.
DJohnson- 74.4% with 29 attempts and 7 TDs. Cards have worse Oline
Barkley- 69.4% with 50 attempts and 7 TDs. Giants have worse Oline
JConnor- 68% with 34 attempts and 10 TDs. Steelers have even or better Oline
Mixon- 66.7% with 32 attempts and 8 TDs. Bengals have worse Oline
Gurley- 64.6% with 64 attempts and 17 TDs. Rams have better Oline

Zeke- 59.1% with 39 attempts and a measly 5 TDs

Zeke only averages 2.69 yards per attempt in RZ, 1.54 ypc within 10 yard line, and had 3 yards and 2 TDs on 10 attempts inside the 5. And this despite the endzone only stopping his yard progress 5 times compared to his peers.

He might be pegged as a great between the tackles runner, we'll see if he is one next season.

The problem is that we are dealing with a small sample size of about 30-50 carries, and that introduces a lot of variance.

For example, in week 5 last year, Zeke took 25 carries and shredded Detroit for 6.5 YPC. The next week vs Houston, Zeke took 20 carries for 2.7 YPC. If you took the Detroit game as your only sample, you'd conclude he is the best running back who ever lived. If you took the Houston game, you'd say that he should be cut to save cap space. You need to get a bigger sample to average out the highs with the lows, like his final 4.7 YPC taken from a much healthier sample of 300 carries.

It's a similar thing here. Zeke scored at an all-timer rate during his first two years with 25 TDs in 25 games. The only guy who I can think of who could keep up the TD-a-game scoring pace for his entire career is Ladanian Tomlinson, so that likely wasn't sustainable.

On the flip side, Zeke's scoring rate this year was unrealistically low given his volume, and he punched in two TDs in two playoff games showing that he hadn't somehow forgotten how to score on the goal line. 6 TDs on 300 carries likely won't be repeated.

When Zeke wraps up his likely 10+ year NFL career, I think it will all work out in the scoring department. We are just getting too myopically focused on one bad sample because it's one of the only three samples we have.

Bullflop · Jun 23, 2019

I feel quite confident that the Dallas FO really isn't prepared to part with Ezekiel at this stage of his career without another workhorse in the fold.

Of course, it's possible that one might be acquired at some future point in time. I doubt that the time for that is at hand, though. Maybe in 2020?

CowboyRoy · Jun 23, 2019

Future said:
The investments in the OL and drafting Zeke #4 means that they planned on making him the highest paid RB in the league before he was even drafted.

Besides, it is still going to be JG's slow *** 1992 offense.

Yep, and with the emergence of Dak and problems and suspension we have had with Zeke since drafting him, that plan should definitely be changed.

CowboyRoy · Jun 23, 2019

beware_d-ware said:
The problem is that we are dealing with a small sample size of about 30-50 carries, and that introduces a lot of variance.

For example, in week 5 last year, Zeke took 25 carries and shredded Detroit for 6.5 YPC. The next week vs Houston, Zeke took 20 carries for 2.7 YPC. If you took the Detroit game as your only sample, you'd conclude he is the best running back who ever lived. If you took the Houston game, you'd say that he should be cut to save cap space. You need to get a bigger sample to average out the highs with the lows, like his final 4.7 YPC taken from a much healthier sample of 300 carries.

It's a similar thing here. Zeke scored at an all-timer rate during his first two years with 25 TDs in 25 games. The only guy who I can think of who could keep up the TD-a-game scoring pace for his entire career is Ladanian Tomlinson, so that likely wasn't sustainable.

On the flip side, Zeke's scoring rate this year was unrealistically low given his volume, and he punched in two TDs in two playoff games showing that he hadn't somehow forgotten how to score on the goal line. 6 TDs on 300 carries likely won't be repeated.

When Zeke wraps up his likely 10+ year NFL career, I think it will all work out in the scoring department. We are just getting too myopically focused on one bad sample because it's one of the only three samples we have.

The biggest problem that people have with Zeke is that he is an idiot. And looking at the way he runs the ball, 10 years is a big stretch. How many of those years will he be a top 5 back in the league? First 6 or 7 maybe? One knee injury and he is toast. Look no further than Gurley this year whos production was all but replaced by a castoff quality veteran RB.

In a league where you HAVE TO pick your spots on who you give the big money, its makes complete sense to use a RB by committee. Especially when you pay big money to your Oline. You shouldn't need a top 3 back.

MWH1967 · Jun 23, 2019

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Typhus · Jun 23, 2019

jazzcat22 said:
NO

Look at what they thought with a strong OL and could use RBBC approach. Then they decided to draft Zeke to correct that.

I don't know Jazz, and I appreciate what you always say,
I will just never be part of the camp that pays out 2nd RB contracts, but we invested draft stock into Zeke, so that would negate my argument, because its just my basic understanding of how the NFL model works now is that you never invest a top 5 pick on any RB, no matter what there name carries.
Cap does not support that franchise build ,,

jazzcat22 · Jun 23, 2019

Typhus said:
I don't know Jazz, and I appreciate what you always say,
I will just never be part of the camp that pays out 2nd RB contracts, but we invested draft stock into Zeke, so that would negate my argument, because its just my basic understanding of how the NFL model works now is that you never invest a top 5 pick on any RB, no matter what there name carries.
Cap does not support that franchise build ,,

Yes true, but also since we drafted Zeke, look how many RB's started to go higher. Maybe that model is changing.
Well, I guess since Rams drafted Gurley as well.

I still think Zeke was the right pick at the time. We will see how it all works out in the next year or so. I just go by the value of what the player is showing, and not so much by the position.

Which I seen where Ramsey said he was not going to give Jacksonville a home town discount come time for his contract talks.
So I bet many will be upset when Jerry does not go after him if he gets to FA. Since there is a strong fan base love for him on here. LOL.

big dog cowboy · Jun 23, 2019

CowboyRoy said:
One knee injury and he is toast.

Every RB is in the same situation.

ElGatoGrande · Jun 23, 2019

NorthwestDallas40 said:
Bear with me for a second... By no means do I think that Dak is a top 10 NFL quarterback. But I do believe that Linehan held him back and we have not seen his best yet. With a top tier OL, an ascending WR corps (with a true #1, a solid deep threat #2, and a playmaking slot, not to mention a dangerous 3rd down RB), and a new offensive coordinator who will modernize and open up the offense, what happens if Dak lights it up this year? And the downfield passing game becomes as big of a threat as the running game?

Do you then re-up Zeke $15 million+/year? Or do you franchise him a year or two and spend the long-term money on Cooper, Jaylon, B Jones, Cobb?

Don't get me wrong, Zeke is the 1st or 2nd best RB in the game. And I love how he plays in all facets of the game. But this is a new NFL that stresses passing to win. And Zeke is one more significant offseason mistake from a year long or indefinite ban. And like we've seen with Gurley, RB's have a limited shelf life.

Thoughts?

Baby steps. Right now I'd settle for the passing game being good enough to make opposing defenses back off of the LOS and quit sitting on all the routes. If and when that happens maybe the team can emphasize the run less but I doubt they'll be going pass-happy anytime soon.

kskboys · Jun 23, 2019

jazzcat22 said:
Yes true, but also since we drafted Zeke, look how many RB's started to go higher. Maybe that model is changing.
Well, I guess since Rams drafted Gurley as well.

I still think Zeke was the right pick at the time. We will see how it all works out in the next year or so. I just go by the value of what the player is showing, and not so much by the position.

Which I seen where Ramsey said he was not going to give Jacksonville a home town discount come time for his contract talks.
So I bet many will be upset when Jerry does not go after him if he gets to FA. Since there is a strong fan base love for him on here. LOL.

The super bowl teams from last year both have a 1st round RB. Hmmmmmm......

kskboys · Jun 23, 2019

big dog cowboy said:
Every RB is in the same situation.

Sub in "player" for "RB".!!!!

kskboys · Jun 23, 2019

beware_d-ware said:
The problem is that we are dealing with a small sample size of about 30-50 carries, and that introduces a lot of variance.

For example, in week 5 last year, Zeke took 25 carries and shredded Detroit for 6.5 YPC. The next week vs Houston, Zeke took 20 carries for 2.7 YPC. If you took the Detroit game as your only sample, you'd conclude he is the best running back who ever lived. If you took the Houston game, you'd say that he should be cut to save cap space. You need to get a bigger sample to average out the highs with the lows, like his final 4.7 YPC taken from a much healthier sample of 300 carries.

It's a similar thing here. Zeke scored at an all-timer rate during his first two years with 25 TDs in 25 games. The only guy who I can think of who could keep up the TD-a-game scoring pace for his entire career is Ladanian Tomlinson, so that likely wasn't sustainable.

On the flip side, Zeke's scoring rate this year was unrealistically low given his volume, and he punched in two TDs in two playoff games showing that he hadn't somehow forgotten how to score on the goal line. 6 TDs on 300 carries likely won't be repeated.

When Zeke wraps up his likely 10+ year NFL career, I think it will all work out in the scoring department. We are just getting too myopically focused on one bad sample because it's one of the only three samples we have.

Most people would be completely shocked at how many games Emmit had w/ a 2-4 YPC. Against good D's, 3 YPC can be a good game.

Last year, before his injury, the much heralded Todd Gurley had the following game logs:

ARI: 19/42/2.2 YPC W
SEA: 22/77/3.5 YPC W
CHI: 11/28/2.5 YPC L

What you're seeing, once again, are people microanalyzing their own player while comparing to the highlights of other players. As you're saying, you must look at the whole pic, and there must be enough carries for a true sample.

cern · Jun 23, 2019

QuincyCarterEra said:
Putting up #'s doesnt make you elite. You're either an elite player or you aren't

Also there really isn't levels of elite. Elite means you're amongst the top 3-5 at your position, so you're either in that grouping or you're not.

first you say there aren't levels of elite. then you quantify elite as top 3-5. which is it? make up your mind. eschewing obfuscation is the best way to go.

cern · Jun 23, 2019

Reid1boys said:
Writing is fundamental.... if your point was RBs have a short life, so just recycle them... yeah. RBs are easy to find. I mean, we have had 5 or 6 Emmitt's since he retired.

sarcasm?

kskboys · Jun 23, 2019

Bullflop said:
I feel quite confident that the Dallas FO really isn't prepared to part with Ezekiel at this stage of his career without another workhorse in the fold.

Of course, it's possible that one might be acquired at some future point in time. I doubt that the time for that is at hand, though. Maybe in 2020?

Our 7th rounder is an attempt in that direction.

QuincyCarterEra · Jun 23, 2019

cern said:
first you say there aren't levels of elite. then you quantify elite as top 3-5. which is it? make up your mind. eschewing obfuscation is the best way to go.

Yes..... I said that, and they don't differ.

There's the top 3-5(depending on # of starters at that position) You're either in that top 3-5 and are elite, or you aren't in that top 3-5 and you aren't. So it's both, not one or the other, just like I said initially.

cern · Jun 23, 2019

kskboys said:
Our 7th rounder is an attempt in that direction.

Stephen is a contingency thinker. he knows all the contracts won't work out given the amount of money some will need to be paid. so he's beefing up o-line backups, and d-line, and d-backs and even potentially wr's. we still need to strengthen the te corps. I don't think witten will necessarily be the answer. and better lb's behind our starting group that has become very good.

cern · Jun 23, 2019

QuincyCarterEra said:
Yes..... I said that, and they don't differ.

There's the top 3-5(depending on # of starters at that position) You're either in that top 3-5 and are elite, or you aren't in that top 3-5 and you aren't. So it's both, not one or the other, just like I said initially.

sounds more like an opinion poll. elite, to me, isn't always about flashy runs. it's about continually moving the chains. none better than zeke at that. and just like dak, he's been handicapped by linehan and his predictable offense. I see a lot of light at the end of the tunnel. but so do heavily medicated/drugged individuals all the time.

kskboys · Jun 23, 2019

cern said:
Stephen is a contingency thinker. he knows all the contracts won't work out given the amount of money some will need to be paid. so he's beefing up o-line backups, and d-line, and d-backs and even potentially wr's. we still need to strengthen the te corps. I don't think witten will necessarily be the answer. and better lb's behind our starting group that has become very good.

Lots of opinions on Mike Weber. Some think he's solely a support type player, others think he's a full time starter. He shared carries at OH ST, but is a good blocker and competent receiver. Has questions about long speed.

He really does appear to be a steal in the 7th.

Might Dak/WRs/Moore make Zeke expendable?

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