Is Zeke a top 3 running back?

QuincyCarterEra

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Where? I didn't read all 8000 posts in this thread so it's entirely possible I missed it.

However..anyone who thinks Barkley is a dancer and can't get tough yards is still a tube lol. We're lucky to have Zeke but if we didn't.. I'd want Barkley over anyone else.

I can't decide between Barkley and Kamara
 

RoyTheHammer

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I can't decide between Barkley and Kamara

Barkley's college career is one of the most impressive I've ever seen. Rookie of the Year. Offensive Player of the Year. Pro Bowl. 1st team All Pro.

Dude is an athletic freak..and built.like a truck. You'd want him. Lol
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Barkley's college career is one of the most impressive I've ever seen. Rookie of the Year. Offensive Player of the Year. Pro Bowl. 1st team All Pro.

Dude is an athletic freak..and built.like a truck. You'd want him. Lol

Kamara also won rookie of the year and has been to two pro bowls in his first two yeara. Barkley wasn't 1st team all pro or offensive player of the year.
 

RoyTheHammer

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Kamara also won rookie of the year and has been to two pro bowls in his first two yeara. Barkley wasn't 1st team all pro or offensive player of the year.

He was an All Pro as voted by the SN. And you are correct. He was offensive rookie of the year. Not offensive player.of the year.

Still a hugely impressive list of awards
 

eromeopolk

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OK .......I'll concede Barley, maybe, but no way in hell I'm putting Bell or Kamara over Zeke.





https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/201...acks-across-the-league-and-left-ezekiel-ellio



NFL.com ranked running backs across the league and left Ezekiel Elliott out of the top three
171
The Cowboys getting disrespected.

By RJ Ochoa@rjochoa Jun 18, 2019, 4:30pm CDTSHARE
1081704076.jpg.0.jpg
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Ezekiel Elliott is perhaps the best running back in football. This is a common assumption.

Zeke has been in the NFL for three seasons now and has two rushing titles decorating his mantle. He may very well have a third if not for his much-debated suspension in 2017, but still, two out of three is very good. In fact, it’s elite.

To many, Elliott is the gold standard at the running back position. He excels in every way that a running back should, his lone weak spot is contributions via the passing game, and that’s more Scott Linehan’s fault than anything else.

This really makes the point that opinions are like butt holes. Everybody has one and only one thing comes out one on a regular basis.

Zeke led the league in rushing 2 of 3 years in the league and had 77 receptions for +500 yds and 6 TDs to go with his rushing title in 2018.

Zeke is not top 3. He is Top.

Butt that is an opinion.
 

G2

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I don't. Barkley isn't constantly dancing. And he played behind a worse line on a worse offense and still got.more ypc.

What durability concerns does Barkley have in your mind? He hasn't.missed a game like ever. Lol
He had a bunch of runs behind Hernandez. Barkley should have split the offensive player of the year award.
 

QuincyCarterEra

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He had a bunch of runs behind Hernandez. Barkley should have split the offensive player of the year award.

So first yall are saying Barkley cuts it out wide too often, but now yall are saying since the giants have a rookie guards(plays interior offensive line lol) that the credit should go to Barkley, when Zeke for his career has ran behind Tyron Smith, Zach Martin, and Travis Frederick? I guess Zeke only gets 1/4 of his rushing titles then.

Man that's crazy it's come to this, we have to come up with out of the boxes ways to diminish other team's players.

Btw Hernandez struggled as a run blocker last year with a 60.0 grade(3rd lowest on Giants Oline). And Barkley ran behind the LG spot a staggering 11.7%, or lower than league average.
 

G2

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So first yall are saying Barkley cuts it out wide too often, but now yall are saying since the giants have a rookie guards(plays interior offensive line lol) that the credit should go to Barkley, when Zeke for his career has ran behind Tyron Smith, Zach Martin, and Travis Frederick? I guess Zeke only gets 1/4 of his rushing titles then.

Man that's crazy it's come to this, we have to come up with out of the boxes ways to diminish other team's players.

Btw Hernandez struggled as a run blocker last year with a 60.0 grade(3rd lowest on Giants Oline). And Barkley ran behind the LG spot a staggering 11.7%, or lower than league average.
Yall? Yeah, anyway he has the tenancy to break outside when there's not a clear hole inside, he did in college as well. There's video out that illustrates some big runs behind Hernandez. It doesn't mean it was every run. You're an idiot if you claim I'm diminishing Barkley, because I've repeatedly stated I'd gladly take either RB. But that conveniently gets ignored.
 

Birdgang

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This really makes the point that opinions are like butt holes. Everybody has one and only one thing comes out one on a regular basis.

Zeke led the league in rushing 2 of 3 years in the league and had 77 receptions for +500 yds and 6 TDs to go with his rushing title in 2018.

Zeke is not top 3. He is Top.

Butt that is an opinion.

The only problem using rushing title for Zeke or any RB is amount of touches plays a huge factor in it. You would hope a RB that touched the ball 50-100 times more then others would have more yards. YPC , yards after contact , TDs and even receiving yards/ TDs. Are they good blockers etc etc. Yes Zeke gets 8 man in the box .... because its the safe play when your RB gets more attempts then your QB throws most games. Im not hating Zeke, He brings a lot to the table and is game-changing type guy. He drains that clock better then anyone. Top 5 maybe but to see top 3 he needs better Redzone .
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Yall? Yeah, anyway he has the tenancy to break outside when there's not a clear hole inside, he did in college as well. There's video out that illustrates some big runs behind Hernandez. It doesn't mean it was every run. You're an idiot if you claim I'm diminishing Barkley, because I've repeatedly stated I'd gladly take either RB. But that conveniently gets ignored.

Every RB should cut outside if there's not a clear hole inside....

You're an idiot if you think that claiming Barkley should share his rookie of the year achievement with his teammate isnt diminishing what he did.

But yes, all the stats I laid out for you completely debunk everything you said.
 

G2

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Every RB should cut outside if there's not a clear hole inside....

You're an idiot if you think that claiming Barkley should share his rookie of the year achievement with his teammate isnt diminishing what he did.

But yes, all the stats I laid out for you completely debunk everything you said.
No, not really. Sometimes you have to be patient and trust the play. It's actually a pretty common concept.
 

uvaballa

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Barkley had 7 games of under 50 yards rushing but most on this board thinks he is Superman
Don’t care about the rookie Barkley and the sorry Giants. If a RB wants $15million a year he better produce in the playoffs.
 

aria

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I would have loved for Zeke to have run one game behind that Gnats O line during the first half of the season. He’s had a few bad game and I have yet to see that it was his fault, it was always the O line’s. Yet Barkley ran behind a much worse O line for the entire season and he never had a bad game due to his O line, it’s because he’s not as good as Zeke :rolleyes:

I swear to whoever/whatever, this place is the Twilight Zone.
 

aria

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Don’t care about the rookie Barkley and the sorry Giants. If a RB wants $15million a year he better produce in the playoffs.
I guess you better cross Zeke off the list. How many yards did he have vs the Rams? He got schooled by an overweight back up.
 

DanA

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Also the OP had zero to support his.notion.

If someone wants to dive into the advanced.metrics and figure out how many yards each gained after first contact last year id love to see that comparison. Or how.many carries for a loss each had.

Listen, I get it, Saquon Barkley is a freak athlete, a really nice guy, and a big-play waiting to happen. I think he proved himself as the best big-play specialist in the NFL last year and I suspect that will continue into 2019. But, as I have been for this very same reason since he was in college, I'm tapping the brakes on crowning him the best running back in the league --as much of the rest of the sports world is already doing.

I did a breakdown after the season, as I had done for their respective college seasons before Barkley went pro, detailing what their stats look like when you subtract their single biggest run or play from each game of a singular season. Just one per contest. The results, factoring in receptions as well, confirmed my observation that Barkley is a back who lives & dies by the big-play --but is not the every-down runner yet (including collegiately) that you expect a "great" to be.

For this missive, I'll focus only on their rushing totals --although it's equally applicable to their receiving stats as well. But I've got a buddy who says, "Zeke is the best guy in the league to just turn around & hand the ball to." I think this breakdown demonstrates that quite clearly.

So, for posterity, Zeke & Saquon's "rushing" totals for 2018 were:


Saquon Barkley -- 261 carries, 1,307 yards, 5.0 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel Elliott -- 304 carries, 1,434 yards, 4.7 yards-per-carry


However, when you subtract their single biggest run from each game (as I've done for the following stats), this comparison turns very different:


Saquon Barkley -- 245 carries, 783 yards, 3.19 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel Elliott -- 289 carries, 1,199 yards, 4.14 yards-per-carry


The disparity is astonishing. Remove just 16 runs from Barkley's season (out of 261) and he drops a *WHOPPING* 524 yards from his total! Conversely, when you take away Zeke's longest run from each game, his total drops only 235 yards.

To put it another way:

Saquon averaged 32.75 yards on only 16 carries of the season.

And he averaged 3.19 yards-per-carry over the remaining 245!

Over the course of the season, without those 16 "long" runs Barkley's average plummets from a robust 5.0 to a paltry 3.19 per-carry (almost 2 full yards less). Zeke, on the other hand, minus his best run from each contest, falls from a 4.7-yard average to a still respectable 4.14 yards-per-carry.

For even greater perspective, if you subtract Elliott's best run from every game he still would have finished 3rd in the league in rushing. When you take away Barkley's longest runs, however, he drops from 2nd in the league in rushing all the way down to 23rd --

That is a precipitous plummet!


But while I believe those stats alone clearly distinguish Zeke as the better runner on a down-to-down basis, by a lot, and likewise demonstrate Barkley as the better big-play back, it's not until it's broken down on a game-by-game basis that the vivid difference in their contributions to their team's offensive success becomes perfectly clear. So we're going to take a more microcosmic look at this parallel to bear out the conclusion that Ezekiel Elliott remains, quite simply, the very best running back in the NFL.


So the way I'll do this for greatest visual appeal is to list their rushing totals per-week MINUS both back's single biggest run from each game. The effect is really quite eye-popping:


Week 1 --

Saquon: 17 carries, 38 yards, 2.23 YPC

Ezekiel: 14 carries, 52 yards, 3.71 YPC


Week 2 --

Saquon: 10 carries, 18 yards, 1.80 YPC

Ezekiel: 16 carries, 59 yards, 3.68 YPC


Week 3 --

Saquon: 16 carries, 58 yards, 3.62 YPC

Ezekiel: 15 carries, 101 yards, 6.73 YPC


Week 4 --

Saquon: 9 carries, 16 yards, 1.77 YPC

Ezekiel: 24 carries, 111 yards, 4.62 YPC


Week 5 --

Saquon: 14 carries, 18 yards, 1.28 YPC

Ezekiel: 19 carries, 40 yards, 2.10 YPC


Week 6 --

Saquon: 12 carries, 80 yards, 6.66 YPC

Ezekiel: 23 carries, 85 yards, 3.69 YPC


Week 7 --

Saquon: 13 carries, 28 yards, 2.15 YPC

Ezekiel: 14 carries, 27 yards, 1.92 YPC


Week 8 --

Saquon: 12 carries, 29 yards, 2.41 YPC

Ezekiel: 16 carries, 44 yards, 2.75 YPC


Week 9 --

Saquon: 19 carries, 49 yards, 2.57 YPC

Ezekiel: 18 carries, 116 yards, 6.44 YPC


Week 10 --

Saquon: 26 carries, 119 yards, 4.57 YPC

Ezekiel: 22 carries, 99 yards, 4.50 YPC


Week 11 --

Saquon: 12 carries, 50 yards, 4.16 YPC

Ezekiel: 25 carries, 105 yards, 4.20 YPC


Week 12 --

Saquon: 23 carries, 96 yards, 4.17 YPC

Ezekiel: 22 carries, 54 yards, 2.45 YPC


Week 13 --

Saquon: 13 carries, 92 yards, 7.07 YPC

Ezekiel: 27 carries, 93 yards, 3.44 YPC


Week 14 --

Saquon: 13 carries, 14 yards, 1.07 YPC

Ezekiel: 17 carries, 63 yards, 3.70 YPC


Week 15 --

Saquon: 20 carries, 37 yards, 1.85 YPC

Ezekiel: 17 carries, 68 yards, 4.00 YPC


Week 16 --

Saquon: 16 carries, 41 yards, 2.56 YPC

Ezekiel: Did-Not-Play


So out of 15 games, side-by-side, subtracting their single longest runs from each contest, Zeke had a higher yards-per-carry than Saquon in 10 of those contests, outpacing Barkley by an average of: 1.48, 1.88, 3.11, 2.85, 0.82, 0.34, 3.87, 0.04, 2.63, and 2.16 yards-per-carry.

Accumulatively, those 10 games amount to --


Saquon: 142 carries, 469 yards, 3.30 YPC

Ezekiel: 168 carries, 759 yards, 4.51 YPC


Minus their one longest run from each of those games, it's clear that Zeke was the far more productive, effective, consistent back across 2/3rds of the season and a vaster number of carries. Conversely, in the 5 games Barkley outdid Zeke, the stats are:


Saquon: 87 carries, 415 yards, 4.77 YPC

Ezekiel: 108 carries, 358 yards, 3.61 YPC


So for 5 games out of the season, minus their big runs, Saquon averaged 1.16 yards-per-carry more than Zeke --out-rushing him by 57 yards across those 5 games.

For 10 games out of the season, minus their big runs, Zeke averaged 1.20 yards-per-carry more than Saquon --out-rushing him by 290 yards across those 10 games.

Over the course of the season, minus their big runs, that amounts to 457 more rushing yards for Zeke and nearly 1 full yard-per-carry (0.95) greater.


If we pit their 16th game of the season against one another (Week 16 for Saquon, Week 1 of the Playoffs for Zeke), again, subtracting their single biggest run from each game --


Saquon: 16 carries, 41 yards, 2.56 YPC

Ezekiel: 25 carries, 93 yards, 3.72 YPC


Consistently, Elliott demonstrates that he is the more productive runner, by quite a bit, across the far broader number and circumstances of their respective carries. Barkley may indeed be the better home-run hitter. But there's no question that Zeke is out there getting the dirty yards, the needed yards, Saquon is leaving on the field; and the fortunes of their teams in 2018 each reflect the natural result of that:


RECORDS --

Cowboys: 10-6

Giants: 5-11


This is also assessed in the fact that Zeke picked up 73 first-downs, to Saquon's 50, in one fewer game.

That's 69 more downs of offense that Zeke's legs provided for his team than Barkley did for his.


Saquon had 5 more runs of 20+ yards than Zeke (16-to-11) & 6 more runs of 40+ yards (7-to-1).

Which do you think a coach who wants to win would prefer, 11 more "explosive" plays on the season, or 69 more offensive snaps? And this whole query instantly makes me think of Emmitt Smith vs. Barry Sanders, because like I predicted before the season, the Zeke/Saquon rivalry is shaping up very much like the old debate between those greats!

Saquon, like Sanders (his idol), is the best big-play threat in the league.

Ezekiel, like Emmitt, is the best running back in the league.


Of course, this contest isn't remotely over. But in all the metrics we can currently assess, college & the pros, this is who these backs have proven themselves to be, consistently. It's extraordinary how much their college production mirrors their NFL performances. I strongly suspect this will continue, and I don't think we've seen either of their bests.

Athletically, this season should display the very best Ezekiel Elliott the world has ever seen. He is now a young 23 years old and is likely fully grown. Word is he's in the best shape of his life, has gone from 225lbs. in his rookie year (when he was the youngest player in the league) to a manly 230lbs. this offseason.

I believe we're about to see the biggest, strongest, and fastest Ezekiel Elliott there has ever been.

And it might just be a perfect storm regarding the physical maturation of his ability being paired with all the talent surrounding him. There's no question in my mind that Zeke is coming into the best situation for a running back in the NFL to produce at a big-time level. Barkley is certain to have more than 15-minutes of fame. But when, not if, Elliott leads the NFL in rushing again, maybe to unprecedented degrees, people are going to have to start acknowledging that #21 is the #1 runner in the league.


--yeah, even if Barkley has more "big-plays" on the season.

Take those away, and Barkley is over 40% less of a running back.

Kid's got to show me some things before he's in the same breath with Zeke...



:starspin:
 

DanA

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My recent post, an analysis seeking to make the statistical case that Saquon Barkley is a back who relies more on the big-play for production than consistent domination on the ground, was met with boisterous incredulity. Y'all don't have as much background on me as the forum I spend most of my time on, so you likely didn't know that the analysis I posted was merely the most recent in what is now a three-part series breaking down Barkley's production intricately.

It was when first performing this study of his college statistics I formed the opinion that he's not as dominant on a down-to-down basis as teams generally look for in a "franchise" back. Clearly, he's immensely talented. In watching hours of film on the young man, my diagnosis for this condition is that Saquon Barkley is simply a halfback whose style is ALL about using his crazy athleticism to hit the home-run every time he touches the ball --even if it's not necessarily the best, most productive thing for his offense.

The similarities between he & Barry Sanders on that front are startling.

Nonetheless, I thought I would post that older analysis here (which was done before Barkley was even drafted, on January 30th, 2018) so that you, too, can have an opportunity to see that the kind of production he had --and didn't have-- for the Giants is exactly who he was in college and that his rookie season in the pros played out much like his Penn State film hinted that it would.

Make of it what you will. The analysis starts after the line-break, with emphasis to highlight the parts that dovetail with my analysis of his lone NFL season:

-------------------------------

Alright, y'all, here goes...

Positives: Barkley is, obviously, a tremendous athlete. His weight-room performances are legendary at Penn State and his physical ability certainly passes the eye-test on the field. He's big. He's strong. He's fast. He's quick. I suspect he's going to be the bell of the ball at the NFL Combine and will wow a lot of onlookers with his sheer physicality. He has good vision as a runner. He's got a fantastic jump-cut. Solid hands. A decent understanding of route-running. Great spin move. A ton of elusiveness. In fact, he's one of the most elusive big-men @ running back I've seen, reminiscent of Le'Veon Bell's ability to make people miss in tight spaces. Barkley has big-time "big play" ability. He's got plus-speed and can take it the distance if the defense is out of position. Has a propensity to make something out of nothing and frustrates defenders with his jitterbug style.

Negatives: Undisciplined. Barkley rarely follows the design of the play and is always looking for the home-run, the exaggerated cutback, relying on his athleticism to outdo defenders --something I believe will inhibit him as a down-to-down player against better competition in the pros. He's got some of the worst traits of Barry Sanders on that front, willing to risk putting his team in a bad spot to seek glory on every play. Like Barry, he's also got the athleticism to pull it off on a more frequent basis than most. But as his stats will show (which I'll go into below), on a carry-by-carry basis this makes him a bit of an anomaly. At the NFL-level, unless someone can coach him out of tendencies that I imagine have become quite ingrained by now, I think he's liable to run into trouble --no pun intended-- when facing pro-caliber defenses who play with more technique & discipline than he does.

Overview: Barkley appears to be a guy with all the talent in the world, but I'm not sure his head is on right. I don't mean that he's a problem player or an unintelligent human being. But I don't think he's football-smart. It wouldn't surprise me if he scores low on the Wonderlic, whereas, by comparison, Zeke tallied the highest score for a running back in NFL history.

Saquon has been able to get by on athleticism alone in college, demonstrating little in the way of fundamentals and finding success as a whirling-dervish on the field. If something it bottled up, I'm not sure I recall a play in which he followed the design, lowered his head, and just got the positive yards. He always looks to get outside, escape, turn it east-&-west, and craves the highlight-reel run on every carry; and certainly, he's capable of it and his mix-tape is full of impressive displays of such prowess. But that's not something he'll be able to get away with in the NFL on a consistent basis (it wasn't even consistent in college), and while he'll probably be a nice big-play threat in this league, I currently doubt that he's the kind of back you can strap a feed-bag to and wear a pro-level defense out with for 4 quarters. It's just not his style; and his style is good enough to be eye-popping in college, but with a top-5 pick in the draft you want a guaranteed bell-cow.

Don't get me wrong, this guy is capable of the extraordinary at times. I liken him to Barry Sanders in that way. But like Barry, his consistency leaves something to be desired. In the pros, Barry would often have something like 14 carries for 37 yards in the late-3rd or early-4th quarters, and then break a long one (or two) to finish with 18 carries for 124 yards & a TD --which seemed like a really good game, rather than being merely 1 or 2 really good plays. Saquon Barkley, in college, looks to have produced much of his yardage in a similar way. I'm gonna back that statement up with an analysis of his 2017 stats on a game-by-game basis. What they reveal might surprise you. I know they did me.

What I'll do here is break down his performances and then show you what his final production would have been minus his biggest single run from these games. While you can't take those plays away from someone or discount their big-play ability, what I believe it will do is demonstrate that his down-to-down consistency is not what you'd expect from an "elite" prospect; and furthermore, despite some great highlights, that Barkley really didn't have a dominant junior season and struggled to produce against an overall weak schedule & against numerous unranked teams --


Penn State started the 2017 campaign against lowly, overmatched Akron and the results reflected this in a 52-0 drubbing that represented Barkley's second-best performance of the season:

14 carries, 172 yards, 2 TDs, 12.3 YPC

A great game, yes. But bolstered by an 80-yard scamper that bloated his final stats. Without that one run, ala Barry Sanders, Barkley would have recorded 13 carries for 92 yards, still an impressive 7.0 YPC, and 1 TD. Keep in mind, this was the second-best game Saquon had all season.


WEEK 2, Penn State faces off against unranked Pittsburgh and wins 33-14:

14 carries, 88 yards, 1 TD, 6.3 YPC

A solid performance. If you take away his long run from the game, a 22-yarder, Barkley would have ended with 13 carries for 66 yards, 5.0 YPC, 1 TD --against what analysts called an "iffy" Pittsburgh defense.


WEEK 3, Penn State romps unranked Georgia State 56-0:

10 carries, 47 yards, 0 TDs, 4.7 YPC

A pedestrian performance on the ground which was even worse than it looks. Because without his long of 33, Barkley ends this game with 9 carries for 14 yards, 1.5 YPC. Not the kind of performance you'd expect from a top prospect amid a 56-to-nothing destruction of a drastically inferior opponent.


WEEK 4, a 21-19 nail-biter against unranked Iowa & by FAR Barkley's best game of the season:

28 carries, 211 yards, 1 TD, 7.5 YPC

Minus a 44-yard sideline tightrope that is one of his marquee highlights, Barkley still had 27 carries for 167 yards & a Touch, 6.2 YPC. This was easily the most consistent game of Saquon's 2017 campaign and his greatest performance of the year.


WEEK 5, a 45-14 victory over unranked Indiana:

20 carries, 56 yards, 0 TDs, 2.8 YPC

Following arguably the best game of his college career, Barkley turns in a clunker. Minus his long of 8, his totals would have been 19 carries for 48 yards, 2.5 YPC. There was no saving this one with a big play. He just flat-out didn't produce.


WEEK 6, facing their first ranked team of the season, #17 Northwestern, Penn State wins 31-7:

16 carries, 75 yards, 2 TDs, 4.7 YPC

What appears to be a solid game looks very different when you take away Barkley's 53-yard TD on the ground, leaving him with 15 carries for 22 yards, 1 TD & 1.4 YPC. The first ranked team they faced, aside from one big play, bottled up "all-world" Barkley all day long despite getting rolled in a big-time loss.


WEEK 7, a 42-13 whipping of unranked Michigan:

15 carries, 108 yards, 2 TDs, 7.2 YPC

But without a 69-yard touchdown, Saquon only records 14 carries for 39 yards, 1 TD & a 2.8 YPC average.


WEEK 8, versus 5th-ranked Ohio State, a 39-38 barn-burning loss:

21 carries, 44 yards, 1 TD, 2.1 YPC

An unimpressive performance is revealed as an abominable one when you remove his 36-yard TD scamper, leaving him with 20 carries for 8 yards, no TDs, and an abysmal 0.4 YPC.


WEEK 9, a 27-24 loss against 15th-ranked Michigan State:

14 carries, 63 yards, 0 TDs, 4.5 YPC

His struggles against another ranked team, and Penn State's second & final loss of the season is revealed as even more pedestrian than those final stats convey when you take away his long of 36, leaving him with 27 yards on 13 carries, 2.1 YPC.


WEEK 10, Penn State bounces back with a 35-6 beating of unranked Rutgers:

14 carries, 35 yards, 2 TDs, 2.5 YPC

Rutgers hardly has a powerhouse defense & were clearly overmatched in this contest, yet without his long of 11 Barkley produced only 13 carries for 24 yards & 1.8 YPC against them.


WEEK 11, a 56-44 win versus unranked Nebraska:

17 carries, 158 yards, 3 TDs, 9.3 YPC

One of Saquon's five 100+ yard performances of the season (including his bowl game) becomes a 16 carry, 93 yard, 2 TD, 5.8 YPC outing without his long of 65 on the day. I rank this as his 3rd-best game of the year.


WEEK 12, a 66-3 shellacking of unranked Maryland:

16 carries, 77 yards, 2 TDs, 4.8 YPC

Subtracting his long of 17, Saquon ends this day with 15 carries for 60 yards & 4.0 YPC.


WEEK 13, the Fiesta Bowl, which Penn State wins 35-28:

18 carries, 137 yards, 2 TDs, 7.6 YPC

What looks like a great bowl performance is revealed, in fact, as one great play in the bowl game when you subtract his 92-yard touchdown run, leaving him with 17 carries for 45 yards, 1 TD, and a 2.6 YPC average on every other handoff in the biggest game of their season.


Saquon Barkley ended the year with 217 carries -- 1,271 yards -- 18 TDs -- and a 5.9 YPC average on the ground. However, when you subtract just his biggest singular play from each one of those 13 games on the season, his totals become:

204 carries, 705 yards, 12 TDs, 3.4 YPC


Are those the stats of an "elite" running back?


Now, don't get me wrong, I recognize that Barkley has eye-popping physical talent. He is a big-play waiting to happen. But his style of production, which is predominantly predicated on big-plays and is revealed as positively pedestrian across all the others (204 carries vs. 13) leads me to believe that he isn't the every-down, bell-cow running back he's being hyped as.

In fact, his final season in college reminds me a lot of CJ Spiller's, another big-play specialist who recorded 216 carries, 1,212 yards, 12 TDs, and a 5.6 YPC average for Clemson in 2009. The knock on Spiller in the pros, aside from being unable to stay healthy, was that he didn't follow his blocks, couldn't properly read rushing lanes, and relied on his athleticism --to his team's detriment-- to gain yards.

Barkley clearly possesses a size Spiller never had and he is unquestionably a better prospect all-around. But I do find similarities to their games and how each of them produced, or didn't, on the field. Spiller was also a prolific receiver in college, and certainly Saquon's receiving totals are impressive. But even they are revealed as less-than-stellar when you give them the same treatment as his rushing totals and subtract his one biggest play from each game.

As it stands, officially, Barkley recorded:

54 receptions, 632 yards, 3 TDs, 11.7 AVG on the season through the air.

When you take away his singular "big-play" from those 13 games, his totals become

41 receptions, 266 yards, 0 TDs, 6.5 AVG --painting a far different picture.

Now, listen, I know that in reality you can't "take away" those plays & that being such a big-play threat is an integral part of what makes Saquon Barkley great. Just like it was a big part of what made Barry Sanders great. But as a comparison of their college productivity reveals, Barry was much greater than Saquon on all the other plays as well. Barkley, aside from literally 13 big plays on the year, had what can only be described as a very mediocre season for the Nittany Lions.

Using this same method to evaluate Ezekiel Elliott's two biggest seasons in college, 2014/2015, reveals the distinction I'm attempting to make. Taking away Zeke's biggest plays from each game in those years, his stats become:


2014: 314 carries, 1,832 yards, 16 TDs, 5.8 YPC

2015: 303 carries, 1,518 yards, 22 TDs, 5.0 YPC

--those are, in my opinion, the statistics of a true bell-cow running back, one worthy of a top-5 pick in the NFL Draft; and that's without his biggest play from each game! Over the course of those two seasons Elliott was undoubtedly also a "big-play" back, reeling TD runs of 44, 47, 55 (twice), 65 (twice), 66, 75, 80, 81, and 85 yards. But even when you take those big-plays away from him, he still had overwhelming, dominant production on all his other carries, recording an accumulative 3,350 yards, 38 TDs, and averaging over 5 yards-per-carry.


Contrast that with Saquon Barkley's totals without the biggest singular plays from each game of his two most productive seasons:

2016: 258 carries, 961 yards, 12 TDs, 3.7 YPC

2017: 204 carries, 705 yards, 12 TDs, 3.4 YPC

--an accumulative 1,666 yards, 24 TDs, and about 3.5 yards-per-carry.


Now Saquon Barkley obviously has an exciting highlight-reel & is capable of making big-plays. But it's the down-to-down carries that have captured my attention more in this analysis, as they paint a picture of a player who is more "athlete" than elite running back; and while being a superlative athlete can bring you college success, it takes something extra to dominate in the pros.

Does Barkley have that?

I don't know.

Certainly, stats alone cannot answer this question. But as I study his game, I find more holes for a potential top-5 selection than all the hoopla about his exploits would have one believe. Yes, he can take your breath away. So could Felix Jones. But does he have the great nuance in his ability that allows a halfback to make 5 yards, when it's only blocked for 2? If he can't just cut back against the grain at the next level as he did in college & beat defenders to the outside all the time, does he have the grit, the power, and the discipline to stick his nose in the hole and carry the pile for the hidden yardage the great ones will get you?

So far, I don't see it.

He's got all the physical talent in the world, so perhaps it's only an issue of coaching and developing as a player. But I can tell you that he hasn't demonstrated those attributes thus far. He may very well make me eat my words, and frankly, I'm rooting for the guy. As you know, I love a great running back and he CAN do some special things; his lateral agility is even better than Zeke's. But I think the recent success of other top-5 picks @ running back, Elliott & Leonard Fournette, might make some teams sitting at the top of the draft overlook flaws that his playmaking ability might be masking from plain-sight.


As Cowboys fans, you better hope I'm right.

Because I currently expect Barkley to be a New York Giant next year.

Aaah, Zeke vs. Saquon in the same division.


It couldn't get any better, right?

(end analysis)
-------------------------------

As you can see, the breakdown I recently posted of Barkley's rookie season in the NFL is remarkably consistent with how he produced --or didn't-- in college. Taking away just one big-play from each game reveals positively pedestrian production virtually every other time he touched the ball. His freak athleticism allows him to hit the big-play at a better-than-average rate compared to other backs, but his down-to-down production is clearly lacking when measured against other top running backs; and in particular Ezekiel Elliott.

Thus far, as both my analysis of his college & professional stats prove, Barkley is not a dominant every-down runner and has not yet developed the mentality to plow his head into the hole & drive a pile for dirty-yards, to follow the crease, to stick to the design of the play and get all he can. He's a big-play waiting to happen, but even hitting on those on a greater-than-average basis leaves him putting up subpar production the vast majority of the time.

If it's my dime, I'm taking Zeke. I think history demonstrates that his style & ability is more conducive to winning football games, while Saquon's proclivity might make for the better highlight-reel.

At Penn State and in New York, Barkley has been a big-play BEAST...

.... who comes up small on far too many other carries.


If he can bridge that gap, he'll go down as one of the best of all-time.

As it stands right now, I'll take #21 literally all day long!



:starspin:
 

DanA

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For what it's worth I don't completely agree with the above analysis but I do think Zeke is both more well rounded and more consistent. Barkley could develop that same well-rounded skill set and consistency in time but I do think Zeke was more well rounded even when you look at their college careers and not just because he's had a couple more years in the NFL.
 

RoyTheHammer

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For what it's worth I don't completely agree with the above analysis but I do think Zeke is both more well rounded and more consistent. Barkley could develop that same well-rounded skill set and consistency in time but I do think Zeke was more well rounded even when you look at their college careers and not just because he's had a couple more years in the NFL.

I appreciate you posting that. It was a long read but still interesting. However, I'm not one to give it alot of.valifstion because.i don't particularly like analysis where you are saying, *Well look if you take this and that away.."

I mean..you can't. Obviously he did those things and he definitely has another gear that Zeke doesn't have that allows him to bust those big runs that we simply don't really see Zeke make. It's a part of Barkley's game that's a positive that's being spun as a negative in this narritive.

I'd still like to see how many yards each gained last year after first contact and how.many carries for loss each had if anyone knows how to find that info.

Also have to keep in mind with these stats who each back played for. But as I said, an interesting read.
 
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