People need to stop wishing our talent away

kskboys · Jul 22, 2019

Proof said:
You lost me at sign ONE of Jaylon and Amari.

Unfortunately, it will most likely come down to that. You'll get nowhere overpaying a few stars because the rest of your roster will suffer greatly.

kskboys · Jul 22, 2019

CyberB0b said:
I can't think of a recent Super Bowl champion with a top 5 RB. The only one that comes to mind is the 2013 Seahawks.

Ravens.

It's not the top 5 status, it's the tough yards RB that makes the difference. As big as a knucklehead as Blount is, he keeps winning super bowls. While you cannot overpay, a guy who can consistently get a few yards when the D has closed everything off is generally instrumental in a super bowl run. Blount did it for NE(twice, I think), then did it for Philly. Anderson for DEN, Jacobs for NYG, Rice for BALT, Lynch for SEA. Most super bowl winners have such a guy.

kskboys · Jul 22, 2019

Sydla said:
It's not about wishing talent away. It's about understanding the concept of returns on investment, cap implications, etc.

People need to get out of this silly world where just because some fans think it's OK to let a player go, that means they hate the player. That's not the case for most. It's simply about understanding the reality that paying a TB a huge amount of money might not be the smartest thing in the world. It also could have implications for other players down the road - Byron Jones, Jaylon Smith, etc.

In terms of return on investment, as I showed in other threads, over the last decade or so, there has only been one team that won a SB with what you might call an elite TB - The Seahawks with Marshawn Lynch. But in that case, Russell Wilson wasn't making a ton of money himself.

Which brings us to another situation.......... if you think our QB is so money, so great, so worthy of $32MM+, then it doesn't make a ton of sense to pay your TB close to $20MM a year because "he's the engine" that drives the car.

Ray Rice w/ Ravens

ABQCOWBOY · Jul 22, 2019

Hawkeye0202 said:
We had a core of players in the 90s we paid and won a couple of Super Bowls. This is no different, the same concept.

It's way different now. The cap started in like 1994 so by 1995, we were done. We lost talent up and down the roster all through the late 90s and by the time 2000 came, we were terrible, 5-11 and 4th in the NFC East. The advent of the cap had as much to do with killing that team as did Jimmy and Jerry breaking up.

ABQCOWBOY · Jul 22, 2019

kskboys said:
We've already discussed this and we're not going go agree, so........been fishin' lately?

I don't know if this post is to me or not ksk, but the answer is no. Need to go though, just so damned hot!

Sydla · Jul 22, 2019

kskboys said:
Ray Rice w/ Ravens

He wasn't an elite TB. But even if you granted that he was an elite, highly paid TB, that still is only two in the last 10 years.

Rice was like 10th in rushing that year, 9th in TDs, like 15th in yards per carry.

Hardly elite. Certainly not in the class of TBs of his peers there like Peterson and Lynch.

kskboys · Jul 22, 2019

Sydla said:
He wasn't an elite TB. But even if you granted that he was an elite, highly paid TB, that still is only two in the last 10 years.

Rice was like 10th in rushing that year, 9th in TDs, like 15th in yards per carry.

Hardly elite. Certainly not in the class of TBs of his peers there like Peterson and Lynch.

We disagree on elite.

It appears to me you're thinking elite is "flashy". According to those parameters, Emmit Smith wasn't elite.

Peterson was in a class of his own. However, IMO Rice was in the same tier as Lynch.

Also, Rice was a multidimensional threat. Peterson runs the ball and that's it. Rice also caught 61 passes that season.

kskboys · Jul 22, 2019

ABQCOWBOY said:
I don't know if this post is to me or not ksk, but the answer is no. Need to go though, just so damned hot!

Yeah, I remember a time when the heat didn't bother me and we'd go fishing all day w/o a 2nd thought. Now, it's close to sundown when I even consider it!!!

QuincyCarterEra · Jul 22, 2019

kskboys said:
Ray Rice w/ Ravens

Ravens were 20th in rushing yards that season and 23rd in rushing TDs.

Ray Rice averaged below the league average in yards per carry at 4.4 ypc.

His CAP hit was also only $5M that year. So almost half what Zeke will make this year on his rookie contract before extension.

ABQCOWBOY · Jul 22, 2019

kskboys said:
Yeah, I remember a time when the heat didn't bother me and we'd go fishing all day w/o a 2nd thought. Now, it's close to sundown when I even consider it!!!

No kidding. Early mornings and early evenings are the best times for sure.

kskboys · Jul 22, 2019

QuincyCarterEra said:
Ravens were 20th in rushing yards that season and 23rd in rushing TDs.

Ray Rice averaged below the league average in yards per carry at 4.4 ypc.

Here's an excerpt from the scouts written in that year: "Ray Rice remains one of the most dynamic all-purpose backs in the league, breaking tackles, eluding LB's, and running away from DB's. Although he's short in stature, Rice is a physical inside runner for his size and catches footballs cleanly out of the backfield, where he creates mismatches in the open field. Rice rarely fumbles, but he did lose one in the super bowl." 2012 ranking for Ray Rice: 3rd

Honestly, did you guys watch him? Dude was a bowling ball and clearly elite. Looking back at stats simply doesn't show what he was.

You must also consider that inside runners are generally going to have a lower YPC than outside runners.

Jake · Jul 22, 2019

Toruk_Makto said:
Zeke was a replacement level back last year. High volume. Middling efficiency.

2018 RB efficiency:

Alex Collins 4.91
Carlos Hyde 4.79
Ito Smith 4.69
Alfred Blue 4.39
Kamara 3.96
Hunt 3.89
Doug Martin 3.78
Sony Michel 3.71
Zeke 3.67
Gurley 3.65
Barkley 3.63
Gordon 3.62
Nick Chubb 3.48
McCaffrey 3.44
Phillip Lindsay 3.39
Frank Gore 3.13

Those look like pretty good backs with "middling" efficiency.

Rushing efficiency is calculated by taking the total distance a player traveled on rushing plays as a ball carrier according to Next Gen Stats (measured in yards) per rushing yards gained. The lower the number, the more of a North/South runner.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#efficiency

QuincyCarterEra · Jul 22, 2019

kskboys said:
Here's an excerpt from the scouts written in that year: "Ray Rice remains one of the most dynamic all-purpose backs in the league, breaking tackles, eluding LB's, and running away from DB's. Although he's short in stature, Rice is a physical inside runner for his size and catches footballs cleanly out of the backfield, where he creates mismatches in the open field. Rice rarely fumbles, but he did lose one in the super bowl." 2012 ranking for Ray Rice: 3rd

Honestly, did you guys watch him? Dude was a bowling ball and clearly elite. Looking back at stats simply doesn't show what he was.

You must also consider that inside runners are generally going to have a lower YPC than outside runners.

But when it correlates to winning it highlights how little RBs matter.

You were asked to give an example of an elite back/running game resulting in a SB. The team you chose to use as an example was in the bottom 3rd of rushing output.

I think Rice was very good and underrated, and also a much better receiver than Zeke. Which in this day in age is a huge advantage.

CyberB0b · Jul 22, 2019

kskboys said:
Ravens.

It's not the top 5 status, it's the tough yards RB that makes the difference. As big as a knucklehead as Blount is, he keeps winning super bowls. While you cannot overpay, a guy who can consistently get a few yards when the D has closed everything off is generally instrumental in a super bowl run. Blount did it for NE(twice, I think), then did it for Philly. Anderson for DEN, Jacobs for NYG, Rice for BALT, Lynch for SEA. Most super bowl winners have such a guy.

All of those guys are journeymen, with Lynch being the exception. Your evidence directly refutes the assertion that Elliott is irreplaceable.

kskboys said:
Here's an excerpt from the scouts written in that year: "Ray Rice remains one of the most dynamic all-purpose backs in the league, breaking tackles, eluding LB's, and running away from DB's. Although he's short in stature, Rice is a physical inside runner for his size and catches footballs cleanly out of the backfield, where he creates mismatches in the open field. Rice rarely fumbles, but he did lose one in the super bowl." 2012 ranking for Ray Rice: 3rd

Honestly, did you guys watch him? Dude was a bowling ball and clearly elite. Looking back at stats simply doesn't show what he was.

You must also consider that inside runners are generally going to have a lower YPC than outside runners.

Rice was versatile, but no way was he a top 5 guy.

kskboys · Jul 22, 2019

QuincyCarterEra said:
But when it correlates to winning it highlights how little RBs matter.

You were asked to give an example of an elite back/running game resulting in a SB. The team you chose to use as an example was in the bottom 3rd of rushing output.

I think Rice was very good and underrated, and also a much better receiver than Zeke. Which in this day in age is a huge advantage.

Sigh. It's not output, it's getting the tough yards. Rice was great at that.

If you're going sheer volume, then it doesn't matter. Mostly, the teams w/ the highest rushing output don't win because they are one dimensional. You really need both. Which is why when you're referring strictly to stats, it makes your end conclusion incorrect.

QuincyCarterEra · Jul 22, 2019

Wow this is a fantastic read

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/the-best-time-to-utilize-play-action/

Very first point- Brady averaged 4.4 yards per attempt when not using play action in 11 personnel.... that's really bad.

Also establishing the run doesn't improve play action.

I'll reiterate that in order of importance to the run game it goes as follows:
1. Oline
2. Your alignment
3. Scheme
4. QB talent
5. Running back talent

Sydla · Jul 22, 2019

kskboys said:
We disagree on elite.

It appears to me you're thinking elite is "flashy". According to those parameters, Emmit Smith wasn't elite.

Peterson was in a class of his own. However, IMO Rice was in the same tier as Lynch.

Also, Rice was a multidimensional threat. Peterson runs the ball and that's it. Rice also caught 61 passes that season.

No, not flashy. Smith was elite. Rice was not.

But again, even if you stipulate Rice was an elite back, again, that doesn't disprove the reality that over the last decade or so, most SB participating teams weren't paying big bucks to elite TBs.

QuincyCarterEra · Jul 22, 2019

kskboys said:
Sigh. It's not output, it's getting the tough yards. Rice was great at that.

If you're going sheer volume, then it doesn't matter. Mostly, the teams w/ the highest rushing output don't win because they are one dimensional. You really need both. Which is why when you're referring strictly to stats, it makes your end conclusion incorrect.

Tough yards are so hard to quantify and are typically used since they aren't easily disproven.

For example you claimed Zeke is the best at getting the dirty yards. In 2018 he was the 18th best at getting the dirty yards.

Where did rice fall in that category in their SB year? Hard to know. That's why it's being used here since there's no way to prove or disprove it.
Since he only had 9 rushing TDs odds are he wasn't one of the highest.

Hell Rice was 15th in the league in rushing yards per game. That's not exciting at all.

kskboys · Jul 22, 2019

CyberB0b said:
All of those guys are journeymen, with Lynch being the exception. Your evidence directly refutes the assertion that Elliott is irreplaceable.

Rice was versatile, but no way was he a top 5 guy.

I think Elliot is replaceable.

Yes, way.

Everything I look at from around that time had Rice ranked generally in the 1-7 range.

Sydla · Jul 22, 2019

kskboys said:
Here's an excerpt from the scouts written in that year: "Ray Rice remains one of the most dynamic all-purpose backs in the league, breaking tackles, eluding LB's, and running away from DB's. Although he's short in stature, Rice is a physical inside runner for his size and catches footballs cleanly out of the backfield, where he creates mismatches in the open field. Rice rarely fumbles, but he did lose one in the super bowl." 2012 ranking for Ray Rice: 3rd

Honestly, did you guys watch him? Dude was a bowling ball and clearly elite. Looking back at stats simply doesn't show what he was.

You must also consider that inside runners are generally going to have a lower YPC than outside runners.

This is such a weird comment and clearly an attempt to try to justify the fact Rice was just good in 2012. Alfred Morris is an inside runner and averaged 4.8. Lynch was a power back and he averaged 5.0 ypc that year.

People need to stop wishing our talent away

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