Do Regular Season Wins/Points to Correlate to Playoff Wins?

xwalker · Jul 22, 2019

Do regular season Win/Loss records predict Playoff Wins?
Answer: No (based on 2018 data)

Do regular season Points Differential predict Playoff Wins?
Answer: No (based on 2018 data)

2018 Data Provided Below
- Playoff Games Winners/Losers vs Regular Season Wins
- Playoff Games Winners/Loser vs Regular Season Points Differentials

Note:
Regular Season Points Differential = Offensive Points minus Defensive Points Allowed

Format:
- Playoff Game Winner ..... Reg Season Wins
- Playoff Game Loser ....... Reg Season Wins

Negative Winner Differential Indicates Game Loser better in Reg Season.

2018 Playoff Games (Regular Season Wins)
Dallas Cowboys ................ 10
Seattle Seahawks ............. 10
Winner Differential ............ 0

Indianapolis Colts ............. 10
Houston Texans ................ 11
Winner Differential ............ -1

Los Angeles Chargers ...... 12
Baltimore Ravens ............. 10
Winner Differential ............ 2

Philadelphia Eagles .......... 9
Chicago Bears .................. 12
Winner Differential ............ -3

Kansas City Chiefs ............ 12
Indianapolis Colts ............ 10
Winner Differential ............ 2

Los Angeles Rams ........... 13
Dallas Cowboys ................ 10
Winner Differential ............ 3

New England Patriots ....... 11
Los Angeles Chargers ...... 12
Winner Differential ............ -1

New Orleans Saints .......... 13
Philadelphia Eagles .......... 9
Winner Differential ............ 4

Los Angeles Rams ........... 13
New Orleans Saints .......... 13
Winner Differential ............ 0

New England Patriots ....... 11
Kansas City Chiefs ........... 12
Winner Differential ............ -1

New England Patriots ....... 11
Los Angeles Rams ........... 13
Winner Differential ............ -2

Format:
- Playoff Game Winner ..... Reg Season Points Diff
- Playoff Game Loser ....... Reg Season Points Diff

2018 Playoff Games (Regular Season Points Differential)
Dallas Cowboys ................ 15
Seattle Seahawks ............. 81
Winner Differential ............ -66

Indianapolis Colts ............. 89
Houston Texans ................ 86
Winner Differential ............ 3

Los Angeles Chargers ...... 99
Baltimore Ravens ............. 102
Winner Differential ............ -3

Philadelphia Eagles .......... 19
Chicago Bears .................. 138
Winner Differential ............ -119

Kansas City Chiefs .......... 144
Indianapolis Colts ............. 89
Winner Differential ............ 55

Los Angeles Rams ........... 143
Dallas Cowboys ................ 15
Winner Differential ............ 128

New England Patriots ....... 111
Los Angeles Chargers ...... 99
Winner Differential ............ 12

New Orleans Saints .......... 151
Philadelphia Eagles .......... 19
Winner Differential ............ 132

Los Angeles Rams ........... 111
New Orleans Saints .......... 151
Winner Differential ............ -40

New England Patriots ....... 111
Kansas City Chiefs ........... 144
Winner Differential ............ -33

New England Patriots ....... 111
Los Angeles Rams ........... 143
Winner Differential ............ -32

Super_Kazuya · Jul 22, 2019

I’m not sure this is the intended use of point differential. I have always read about it being used to predict future performance, not game by game. For example a 4-12 team with a positive point differential is a good candidate to improve the next season. I would think for individual games there would be too many other things that were way more important, like home field advantage or the injury report.

Bobhaze · Jul 22, 2019

Regular season wins don’t predict. BUT- Regular season TOTAL point differentials DO very accurately predict playoff success. In 2018, all 4 teams that made the NFC or AFC conference championship games had a point differential of +100.

Same in 2017. All 4 teams in conference championship games had a +100 PD.
In 2016, 3 of 4 teams in conference championship games had +100 PD. (Dallas had +115, lost to GB who only had +44)
In 2015, All 3 of 4 teams in conference championship games had a plus +100 PD. Denver was the outlier at +56 but they won the SB.
In 2014, all 4 teams in conference championship games had a +100 PD.

So in the last 5 years, 18 of the 20 teams playing in the NFC or AFC championship games had a strong +100 point differential or better.

I would say that’s a very good indicator of playoff success.

Jake · Jul 22, 2019

xwalker said:
Do regular season Win/Loss records predict Playoff Wins?
Answer: No (based on 2018 data)

Do regular season Points Differential predict Playoff Wins?
Answer: No (based on 2018 data)

2018 Data Provided Below
- Playoff Games Winners/Losers vs Regular Season Wins
- Playoff Games Winners/Loser vs Regular Season Points Differentials

Note:
Regular Season Points Differential = Offensive Points minus Defensive Points Allowed

Format:
- Playoff Game Winner ..... Reg Season Wins
- Playoff Game Loser ....... Reg Season Wins

Negative Winner Differential Indicates Game Loser better in Reg Season.

2018 Playoff Games (Regular Season Wins)
Dallas Cowboys ................ 10
Seattle Seahawks ............. 10
Winner Differential ............ 0

Indianapolis Colts ............. 10
Houston Texans ................ 11
Winner Differential ............ -1

Los Angeles Chargers ...... 12
Baltimore Ravens ............. 10
Winner Differential ............ 2

Philadelphia Eagles .......... 9
Chicago Bears .................. 12
Winner Differential ............ -3

Kansas City Chiefs ............ 12
Indianapolis Colts ............ 10
Winner Differential ............ 2

Los Angeles Rams ........... 13
Dallas Cowboys ................ 10
Winner Differential ............ 3

New England Patriots ....... 11
Los Angeles Chargers ...... 12
Winner Differential ............ -1

New Orleans Saints .......... 13
Philadelphia Eagles .......... 9
Winner Differential ............ 4

Los Angeles Rams ........... 13
New Orleans Saints .......... 13
Winner Differential ............ 0

New England Patriots ....... 11
Kansas City Chiefs ........... 12
Winner Differential ............ -1

New England Patriots ....... 11
Los Angeles Rams ........... 13
Winner Differential ............ -2

Format:
- Playoff Game Winner ..... Reg Season Points Diff
- Playoff Game Loser ....... Reg Season Points Diff

2018 Playoff Games (Regular Season Points Differential)
Dallas Cowboys ................ 15
Seattle Seahawks ............. 81
Winner Differential ............ -66

Indianapolis Colts ............. 89
Houston Texans ................ 86
Winner Differential ............ 3

Los Angeles Chargers ...... 99
Baltimore Ravens ............. 102
Winner Differential ............ -3

Philadelphia Eagles .......... 19
Chicago Bears .................. 138
Winner Differential ............ -119

Kansas City Chiefs .......... 144
Indianapolis Colts ............. 89
Winner Differential ............ 55

Los Angeles Rams ........... 143
Dallas Cowboys ................ 15
Winner Differential ............ 128

New England Patriots ....... 111
Los Angeles Chargers ...... 99
Winner Differential ............ 12

New Orleans Saints .......... 151
Philadelphia Eagles .......... 19
Winner Differential ............ 132

Los Angeles Rams ........... 111
New Orleans Saints .......... 151
Winner Differential ............ -40

New England Patriots ....... 111
Kansas City Chiefs ........... 144
Winner Differential ............ -33

New England Patriots ....... 111
Los Angeles Rams ........... 143
Winner Differential ............ -32

I wouldn't try to make a living betting on individual games based solely on point differential, but in the example you've the given the conference title games involved the top two teams in point differential in each conference.

xwalker · Jul 22, 2019

Bobhaze said:
Regular season wins don’t predict. BUT- Regular season TOTAL point differentials DO very accurately predict playoff success. In 2018, all 4 teams that made the NFC or AFC conference championship games had a point differential of +100.

Same in 2017. All 4 teams in conference championship games had a +100 PD.
In 2016, 3 of 4 teams in conference championship games had +100 PD. (Dallas had +115, lost to GB who only had +44)
In 2015, All 3 of 4 teams in conference championship games had a plus +100 PD. Denver was the outlier at +56 but they won the SB.
In 2014, all 4 teams in conference championship games had a +100 PD.

So in the last 5 years, 18 of the 20 teams playing in the NFC or AFC championship games had a strong +100 point differential or better.

I would say that’s a very good indicator of playoff success.

Did you look at the bottom half of my post with the points differential data?

The only thing points differential "predicted" is that the teams with low points differential would not get a bye for the Wildcard round.

Wildcard Round
Points Diff didn't predict anything.

Division Round
Teams that played the extra game all lost.

Conference Championship Round
Points Diff didn't predict anything.

Super Bowl
Points Diff didn't predict anything.

Without ever looking at points differential, the teams that played the extra game are expected (from a proability perspective) to lose against the rested teams.

In 2018 points diff over 100 failed in literally all playoff games except when the loser already had the extra game disadvantage.

It failed for:
Bears 138 losing to Eagles 19.
Ravens 102 losing to Chargers 99.

In the 7 games without one team having the extra game disadvantage, the winner had a lower points diff in 6 of those 7.

Cause vs Effect in Statistics
Did a team win because they had more rushing attempts in the 4th quarter OR did they have more rushing attempts in the 4th quarter because they were winning?

Bobhaze · Jul 22, 2019

xwalker said:
Did you look at the bottom half of my post with the points differential data?

The only thing points differential "predicted" is that the teams with low points differential would not get a bye for the Wildcard round.

Wildcard Round
Points Diff didn't predict anything.

Division Round
Teams that played the extra game all lost.

Conference Championship Round
Points Diff didn't predict anything.

Super Bowl
Points Diff didn't predict anything.

Without ever looking at points differential, the teams that played the extra game are expected (from a proability perspective) to lose against the rested teams.

In 2018 points diff over 100 failed in literally all playoff games except when the loser already had the extra game disadvantage.

It failed for:
Bears 138 losing to Eagles 19.
Ravens 102 losing to Chargers 99.

In the 7 games without one team having the extra game disadvantage, the winner had a lower points diff in 6 of those 7.

Cause vs Effect in Statistics
Did a team win because they had more rushing attempts in the 4th quarter OR did they have more rushing attempts in the 4th quarter because they were winning?

Here’s the point you’re missing:

POINT DIFFERENTIAL- 18 of the last 20 teams with a point differential of +100 or better played in the Conference championship game and also made the SB. Look at last year- there were 6 NFL teams that had a +100 or better point differential and 4 of them again made the conf championship game, including both SB teams had +100 PD. PD is huge in predicting playoff success.

Only 2 teams in the last 5 seasons with less than +100 made it to the NFC or AFC championship game. One was GB in 2016 when they beat us and the other was Denver in 2014 when they had +56 but won the SB.

So yeah, at the end of the regular season, you can look at point differential numbers for the teams making the playoffs and based on recent history, have a 90% chance of picking the teams who will make the conference championships and the SB.

big dog cowboy · Jul 23, 2019

Jason Garrett in January.

kskboys · Jul 23, 2019

They are quite obviously one indicator, yes.

xwalker · Jul 23, 2019

Bobhaze said:
Here’s the point you’re missing:

POINT DIFFERENTIAL- 18 of the last 20 teams with a point differential of +100 or better played in the Conference championship game and also made the SB.

That statement is not correct as worded.

There were 2 in 2018 with 100+ that didn't make the conference championship round.

Two in 2017...

In 2016 2 of 4 in championship not plus 100.
In 2016 Cowboys 115 but not in championship round.

xwalker · Jul 23, 2019

Toruk_Makto said:
This is embarrassing. Looking at one season data in the most rudimentary without way possible and making assertions.

Yikes.

Thanks groupie #3.

Toruk_Makto · Jul 23, 2019

xwalker said:
Thanks groupie #3.

If you don't see how taking a statistic that is being misused and using it in an even more egregious manner is bad then I can't really help you see the light.

xwalker · Jul 23, 2019

Toruk_Makto said:
If you don't see how taking a statistic that is being misused and using it in an even more egregious manner is bad then I can't really help you see the light.

Groupies only follow.

They don't help anyone see anything.

buybuydandavis · Jul 23, 2019

xwalker said:
Note:
Regular Season Points Differential = Offensive Points minus Defensive Points Allowed

I hope you just used someone else's tabulation of point differentials, instead of that incorrect formula.

Regular Season Points Differential =
Offensive points scored - Offensive points allowed
Defensive points scored - Defensive points allowed
Special Teams points scored - Special Teams points allowed

Or, as usually tabulated
PF points fared - PA points allowed = PD Points Differential

buybuydandavis · Jul 23, 2019

Eye balling it, you see that the Pats screw up these limited stats by having a below average season but then being the Pats in the playoffs.

Looking at their regular season stats, looks like their defense blew chunks for most of the year with large Expected Points negative scores, while the offense only went negative 3 times and never for 7 or more points.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2018.htm

As for points differentials, only taking the binary differential (higher/lower) as your predictor throws out most of the information in the points differential. At least go with the differential of the differential as your predictor.

But guess what? The final 4 are 4 out of 5 of the 110+ point differential teams.

Of course, it's silly to draw conclusions from one season's worth of playoff data, but even with limited data, regular point differential separates the sheep from the goats very well.

CCBoy · Jul 23, 2019

big dog cowboy said:
Jason Garrett in January.

There was a moto for the 3rd ACR: Forged in fire...came out steel!

Here's to Jason Garrett just equaling his Army leadership counterparts!

xwalker · Jul 23, 2019

buybuydandavis said:
I hope you just used someone else's tabulation of point differentials, instead of that incorrect formula.

Regular Season Points Differential =
Offensive points scored - Offensive points allowed
Defensive points scored - Defensive points allowed
Special Teams points scored - Special Teams points allowed

Or, as usually tabulated
PF points fared - PA points allowed = PD Points Differential

Check the numbers. They're correct.

jazzcat22 · Jul 23, 2019

Jake said:
I wouldn't try to make a living betting on individual games based solely on point differential, but in the example you've the given the conference title games involved the top two teams in point differential in each conference.

I wrote a computer program back in the 90's. Based differentials in games won, points scored and allowed, total yards for and against. I think I had one other factor in there as well. I think I gave a small fraction for home field.

Then I would keep track of the results, and compared that to my predictions, that I made before I ran the program.
the results did not matter. It was about equal. Matter of fact the predictions I made without the program I had a higher W / L %

But for the program it was slightly over .500
Of course it did not account for injuries, weather, home field, though I think I gave a small fraction for home team. But that was completely a random number. I tried to give 3 points to the home team. It did not include turnovers either. Now that I think of it, maybe I should have added that differential too.

I weighted the score, the total average yards. I can't remember the formula, but it was a ratio of the yard difference and how many points I gave a team based on that differential.

DandyDon52 · Jul 23, 2019

Bobhaze said:
Here’s the point you’re missing:

POINT DIFFERENTIAL- 18 of the last 20 teams with a point differential of +100 or better played in the Conference championship game and also made the SB. Look at last year- there were 6 NFL teams that had a +100 or better point differential and 4 of them again made the conf championship game, including both SB teams had +100 PD. PD is huge in predicting playoff success.

Only 2 teams in the last 5 seasons with less than +100 made it to the NFC or AFC championship game. One was GB in 2016 when they beat us and the other was Denver in 2014 when they had +56 but won the SB.

So yeah, at the end of the regular season, you can look at point differential numbers for the teams making the playoffs and based on recent history, have a 90% chance of picking the teams who will make the conference championships and the SB.

your right, I think there are always exceptions popping up though.
Denver had a great defense that year, so that helped them win most close games.
Dallas lost to GB , lol they had poor game plan, bad coaching real bad, Romo on the bench lol, and clapper calling for a spike at wrong time.
That helped GB the lesser team win.

Future · Jul 23, 2019

Point differential is irrelevant in the playoffs because schedules aren't even.

Other than "good teams score more points than their opponents," there's really nothing to glean from it.

Kevinicus · Jul 23, 2019

Bobhaze said:
Here’s the point you’re missing:

POINT DIFFERENTIAL- 18 of the last 20 teams with a point differential of +100 or better played in the Conference championship game and also made the SB. Look at last year- there were 6 NFL teams that had a +100 or better point differential and 4 of them again made the conf championship game, including both SB teams had +100 PD. PD is huge in predicting playoff success.

Only 2 teams in the last 5 seasons with less than +100 made it to the NFC or AFC championship game. One was GB in 2016 when they beat us and the other was Denver in 2014 when they had +56 but won the SB.

So yeah, at the end of the regular season, you can look at point differential numbers for the teams making the playoffs and based on recent history, have a 90% chance of picking the teams who will make the conference championships and the SB.

You're talking to someone trying to use a single playoff year as a sample size and views it as him making a "contribution" to the boards.

Do Regular Season Wins/Points to Correlate to Playoff Wins?

xwalker

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THE BIG DOG

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