PoetTree
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Alright, as I'll be fascinated to do probably throughout their careers, I'm going to dissect Zeke & Barkley's games today at an intricate level. I suspect it will (continue) to tell the tale about who/what these runners respectively are as players. There is no intent to elevate one or denigrate another, even if I might opine...
Let's begin with Barkley's great stat-line:
18 carries, 107 yards, 5.9 yards-per-carry, 1 TD
Really, a great day. Saquon is starting to take shape, I think. You can see his game has evolved. I think he & Zeke are very close in overall talent. I believe they are the two best in the league. Watching their respective highlights today, back-to-back, reveals two runners who are very hard to stop but for different reasons...
Saquon is slippery. Real slick. Real quick. Still don't see him running with real power, real authority. Just not his style, not the way he rolls --even though he IS strong & a high-effort player. That shows up. But he goes sideways a lot to avoid contact. It works for him. He's special. Yet he showed his evolution as he took a very sweet & undramatic route to the end-zone on his 27-yard TD, setting up defenders masterfully so he didn't really have to make many moves. He's going to get better....
[video=youtube;N6WvegFCpts]
His carry breakdown on the day:
1st Quarter
6-yards
14-yards
8-yards
27-yards, TD
5-yards
1-yard
2nd Quarter
1-yard
1-yard
6-yards
3rd Quarter
3-yards
4-yards (called back by penalty)
4-yards
minus-1-yard
1-yard
5-yards
10-yards
2-yards
2-yards
4th Quarter
12-yards
Barkley had 9 runs of 5+ yards, 4 that went for 10+ yards, 1 over 15+ yards = 1 run of 20+ yards.
Overall, an explosive day for #26 and it leaves me wondering why the Giants didn't lean on him more. Gonna be interesting to see what the front-office decides if the Giants drop their 3rd-game in a row. Foles went down in Jacksonville week-1. Eli has a no-trade clause in his contract, so they couldn't force him. But I wonder if he might not prefer being traded to Jacksonville, who truly could be competent quarterback play away from being a pretty good team, and able to hand it to Leonard Fournette, than sitting on the bench as a mentor to Daniel Jones for the rest of the season. You know that coaching-staff is frothing at the lips to get their #6 overall pick --who looked better than Manning all camp-- on the field and head to the future.
I suspect Saquon's workload will go UP quite a bit if that transition occurs, as they'll lean on him heavily to protect their valuable rookie. Jones' athleticism might allow those two to combine for some wild sandlot plays. Frankly, it's the best thing for the franchise. I doubt they're relevant this season, but turning the page on Eli's yesteryear would be a positive step for this new coaching-staff & the organization as a whole; and not to mention, it will have them put the ball more deliberately into the hands of one of the very biggest play-makers in the league!
#TOOCLOSETOSEETHEPROBLEM?
Zeke, on the other hand, was a bit of a surgeon today in heavy traffic. Every time they handed him the ball there were Commanders all around, but he was able to make deft cuts to daylight, accelerate, and pick up consistently big chunks.
His stat-line on the day:
23 carries, 111 yards, 4.8 yards-per-carry, 1 TD
Zeke has led the league in 10+ yard rushes every year since being drafted. Watching him pick his way today to daylight repeatedly left me in admiration. He is skilled. The "Hall-of-Fame Vision" scouts talked about him having is manifest on the field. Check out his highlights in slo-mo to fully appreciate what he does; and on one run he straight-up ignores a linebacker's solid grip over his back, just shrugs through it, accelerates away, cuts inside another defender, grinds, spins, and falls for another 2-yards at the end. It was the kind of physical play probably only Elliott makes.
[video=youtube;6YC8apNKbYs]
His carry breakdown on the day:
1st Quarter
2-yards
3-yards
15-yards
2nd Quarter
5-yards
8-yards
1-yard
2-yards
1-yard
8-yards
2-yards
1-yard
3rd Quarter
13-yards
6-yards
7-yards (called back by penalty)
2-yards
4th Quarter
2-yards
3-yards
minus-1-yard
1-yard
2-yards, TD
3-yards
minus-2-yards
7-yards
27-yards... to ice the game
Zeke had 9 runs of 5+ yards, 3 runs of 10+ yards, 2 runs of 15+ yards, and 1 run of 20+ yards.
Obviously, Ezekiel received 5 more carries than Saquon, so the comparative tally is not numerically apples-to-apples, but it's how & when their carries came that tells a deeper story. Context is nearly all-important, and deriving context via stats is a situationally challenging affair. Nonetheless, I am fascinated by the fact that literally none of Barkley's recorded carries came in short-yardage situations.
Well, that's not quite true, as a 4-yard carry that was called back by penalty came on 3rd-&-1 in the 3rd-quarter. But other than that, which didn't get recorded, the vast bulk of Barkley's handoffs came on early, long-yardage downs:
15-of-Barkley's-18 carries came on 1st-down; and the remaining 3 all occurred on 2nd-down.
There was even a 3rd-&-1 situation in the 2nd-quarter in which the Giants opted for a QB-dive with Eli over giving it to Saquon. It seems clear the Giants are deliberately trying to give the ball to Barkley only when there is space to maneuver and the down-&-distance makes the defense uncertain of the offensive play --because 1st & 2nd-down offer a full playbook for the most part.
Zeke's carry breakdown:
15-of-23 carries came on 1st-down, 4 carries on 2nd-down, and 4 of them occurring on 3rd-down.
The fascinating thing to me is how their production breaks down:
Saquon supplied 61-of-107 yards in the 1st-quarter of the game, 8 yards in the 2nd-quarter, 26 in the 3rd, & 12 in the 4th.
That's: 57% of his production in the 1st-quarter, 7% in the 2nd-quarter, 24% in the 3rd, and 11% in the 4th.
Elliott provided 20-of-111 yards in the 1st-quarter of the game, 28 yards in the 2nd-quarter, 21 in the 3rd, & 42 in the 4th.
That's: 18% of his production in the 1st-quarter, 25% in the 2nd-quarter, 19% in the 3rd, and 38% in the 4th.
So as we reach the end of this statistical analysis, I find that --while not definitive of anything-- today's performance echoes my observations of these backs' respective performances from the past, which is that Saquon is generally more explosive, while Zeke is more consistent. Barkley exploded in the 1st-quarter but then became large percentages less of a factor after the initial period. Elliott, meanwhile, was remarkably consistent across all 4-quarters, achieving nearly equal percentages of production in each of the first 3 periods & then his strongest output in the 4th.
The run-game hasn't hit its stride yet in Dallas, Elliott probably only now rounding into football shape, and I expect that his production will increase in the coming weeks --probably starting with the hapless Dolphins, although on any given Sunday...
Rushing race is gonna come down to the wire, I think. Elliott's steadiness may win in the end.
Or can Saquon stay steadily explosive??
This rivalry is gonna be awesome for a long time, friends ~
Let's begin with Barkley's great stat-line:
18 carries, 107 yards, 5.9 yards-per-carry, 1 TD
Really, a great day. Saquon is starting to take shape, I think. You can see his game has evolved. I think he & Zeke are very close in overall talent. I believe they are the two best in the league. Watching their respective highlights today, back-to-back, reveals two runners who are very hard to stop but for different reasons...
Saquon is slippery. Real slick. Real quick. Still don't see him running with real power, real authority. Just not his style, not the way he rolls --even though he IS strong & a high-effort player. That shows up. But he goes sideways a lot to avoid contact. It works for him. He's special. Yet he showed his evolution as he took a very sweet & undramatic route to the end-zone on his 27-yard TD, setting up defenders masterfully so he didn't really have to make many moves. He's going to get better....
[video=youtube;N6WvegFCpts]
His carry breakdown on the day:
1st Quarter
6-yards
14-yards
8-yards
27-yards, TD
5-yards
1-yard
2nd Quarter
1-yard
1-yard
6-yards
3rd Quarter
3-yards
4-yards (called back by penalty)
4-yards
minus-1-yard
1-yard
5-yards
10-yards
2-yards
2-yards
4th Quarter
12-yards
Barkley had 9 runs of 5+ yards, 4 that went for 10+ yards, 1 over 15+ yards = 1 run of 20+ yards.
Overall, an explosive day for #26 and it leaves me wondering why the Giants didn't lean on him more. Gonna be interesting to see what the front-office decides if the Giants drop their 3rd-game in a row. Foles went down in Jacksonville week-1. Eli has a no-trade clause in his contract, so they couldn't force him. But I wonder if he might not prefer being traded to Jacksonville, who truly could be competent quarterback play away from being a pretty good team, and able to hand it to Leonard Fournette, than sitting on the bench as a mentor to Daniel Jones for the rest of the season. You know that coaching-staff is frothing at the lips to get their #6 overall pick --who looked better than Manning all camp-- on the field and head to the future.
I suspect Saquon's workload will go UP quite a bit if that transition occurs, as they'll lean on him heavily to protect their valuable rookie. Jones' athleticism might allow those two to combine for some wild sandlot plays. Frankly, it's the best thing for the franchise. I doubt they're relevant this season, but turning the page on Eli's yesteryear would be a positive step for this new coaching-staff & the organization as a whole; and not to mention, it will have them put the ball more deliberately into the hands of one of the very biggest play-makers in the league!
#TOOCLOSETOSEETHEPROBLEM?
Zeke, on the other hand, was a bit of a surgeon today in heavy traffic. Every time they handed him the ball there were Commanders all around, but he was able to make deft cuts to daylight, accelerate, and pick up consistently big chunks.
His stat-line on the day:
23 carries, 111 yards, 4.8 yards-per-carry, 1 TD
Zeke has led the league in 10+ yard rushes every year since being drafted. Watching him pick his way today to daylight repeatedly left me in admiration. He is skilled. The "Hall-of-Fame Vision" scouts talked about him having is manifest on the field. Check out his highlights in slo-mo to fully appreciate what he does; and on one run he straight-up ignores a linebacker's solid grip over his back, just shrugs through it, accelerates away, cuts inside another defender, grinds, spins, and falls for another 2-yards at the end. It was the kind of physical play probably only Elliott makes.
[video=youtube;6YC8apNKbYs]
His carry breakdown on the day:
1st Quarter
2-yards
3-yards
15-yards
2nd Quarter
5-yards
8-yards
1-yard
2-yards
1-yard
8-yards
2-yards
1-yard
3rd Quarter
13-yards
6-yards
7-yards (called back by penalty)
2-yards
4th Quarter
2-yards
3-yards
minus-1-yard
1-yard
2-yards, TD
3-yards
minus-2-yards
7-yards
27-yards... to ice the game
Zeke had 9 runs of 5+ yards, 3 runs of 10+ yards, 2 runs of 15+ yards, and 1 run of 20+ yards.
Obviously, Ezekiel received 5 more carries than Saquon, so the comparative tally is not numerically apples-to-apples, but it's how & when their carries came that tells a deeper story. Context is nearly all-important, and deriving context via stats is a situationally challenging affair. Nonetheless, I am fascinated by the fact that literally none of Barkley's recorded carries came in short-yardage situations.
Well, that's not quite true, as a 4-yard carry that was called back by penalty came on 3rd-&-1 in the 3rd-quarter. But other than that, which didn't get recorded, the vast bulk of Barkley's handoffs came on early, long-yardage downs:
15-of-Barkley's-18 carries came on 1st-down; and the remaining 3 all occurred on 2nd-down.
There was even a 3rd-&-1 situation in the 2nd-quarter in which the Giants opted for a QB-dive with Eli over giving it to Saquon. It seems clear the Giants are deliberately trying to give the ball to Barkley only when there is space to maneuver and the down-&-distance makes the defense uncertain of the offensive play --because 1st & 2nd-down offer a full playbook for the most part.
Zeke's carry breakdown:
15-of-23 carries came on 1st-down, 4 carries on 2nd-down, and 4 of them occurring on 3rd-down.
The fascinating thing to me is how their production breaks down:
Saquon supplied 61-of-107 yards in the 1st-quarter of the game, 8 yards in the 2nd-quarter, 26 in the 3rd, & 12 in the 4th.
That's: 57% of his production in the 1st-quarter, 7% in the 2nd-quarter, 24% in the 3rd, and 11% in the 4th.
Elliott provided 20-of-111 yards in the 1st-quarter of the game, 28 yards in the 2nd-quarter, 21 in the 3rd, & 42 in the 4th.
That's: 18% of his production in the 1st-quarter, 25% in the 2nd-quarter, 19% in the 3rd, and 38% in the 4th.
So as we reach the end of this statistical analysis, I find that --while not definitive of anything-- today's performance echoes my observations of these backs' respective performances from the past, which is that Saquon is generally more explosive, while Zeke is more consistent. Barkley exploded in the 1st-quarter but then became large percentages less of a factor after the initial period. Elliott, meanwhile, was remarkably consistent across all 4-quarters, achieving nearly equal percentages of production in each of the first 3 periods & then his strongest output in the 4th.
The run-game hasn't hit its stride yet in Dallas, Elliott probably only now rounding into football shape, and I expect that his production will increase in the coming weeks --probably starting with the hapless Dolphins, although on any given Sunday...
Rushing race is gonna come down to the wire, I think. Elliott's steadiness may win in the end.
Or can Saquon stay steadily explosive??
This rivalry is gonna be awesome for a long time, friends ~
