Will Be Favored in 15 of 16 Games

windjc

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windjc...not sure you know probability math or statistics.

Little simple hypothetical test for you: If you have a 60% win probability each time over a 10 game stretch...are you then expected to be 10-0 over that stretch? The math says you are more likely to go 8-2 or 7-3. Football history says about the same.

And we have five or six games where we won't have even a 60% win probability.
Sure I understand statistics well. My OP had nothing to do with statistics. Just an observation based on Vegas lines.
 

Alexander

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Just keep in mind, if we hold the Vegas lines we will finish 15-1.

A lot of people on this forum are scared to set expectations to protect their sensitive emotions, but those are the facts Jack :)
A lot of you don't know how bookies work either.
 
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windjc

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A lot of you don't know how bookies either.
Yeah yeah, they set the line based on money. TO A POINT. At the end of the day they mainly set the line at what they expect the result to be. And then the line moves according to the money. Vegas, contrary to mythology, isn't in the business of predicting where money will come from. They start pretty close to their expectations.
 

CowboyRoy

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Just keep in mind, if we hold the Vegas lines we will finish 15-1.

A lot of people on this forum are scared to set expectations to protect their sensitive emotions, but those are the facts Jack :)

Or maybe they are just afraid to sound like an idiot.
 

jay94

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It's still at the Saints. It's possible but I don't think we will be favored even without Brees.
We will be favored 100% only if we lose by ten plus against the Dolphins which I don't see happening.
 

RustyBourneHorse

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We won’t be favored in some of our road games...... Philly (unless they just fall apart), NE, Chicago.

New England and Chicago (with the temperature) is where I think we lose 2 games. I think we should be fine the rest of the season, but we may drop one divisional game.
 

JoeKing

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Favored in 15 of 16 games doesn't sound right. How can we be favored when we go to Philly? As for that 1 game that everyone expects us to lose...
We may not be favored against the Patriots but we are still going to shock the world by beating them twice in the same season. Cowboys SB LIV champs!
 

big dog cowboy

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Just keep in mind, if we hold the Vegas lines we will finish 15-1.

A lot of people on this forum are scared to set expectations to protect their sensitive emotions, but those are the facts Jack :)
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RustyBourneHorse

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Favored in 15 of 16 games doesn't sound right. How can we be favored when we go to Philly? As for that 1 game that everyone expects us to lose...
We may not be favored against the Patriots but we are still going to shock the world by beating them twice in the same season. Cowboys SB LIV champs!

I'd be beyond excited if we beat them twice. I'd love to sweep those smug cheating jerks. But, if I have to pick one game for us to beat them, obviously, it'd be the Super Bowl. Plus, I think the vast majority of the NFL would be pulling for us to beat those jerks.
 

Irvin88_4life

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Wow. Saints with Brees inj, scored 9 points vs the Rams.
That's with Bridgewater coming into the game. You don't think they can do better with Bridgewater getting snaps all week at practice and a gameplan for him? 9 points isn't much and without coming into the game without any preparations will be different than preparing all week..... 2 weeks before playing Dallas
 
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