As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.
some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.
this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.
I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.
So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.
I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.
2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.
2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch
2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).
2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater
2013- Ej Manuel
2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden
2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow
2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman
2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco
2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn
That is 29 total QB’s taken.
Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:
QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan
that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.
QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco
That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.
Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.
So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%
4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%
So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.
That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.
Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.
3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.
15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%
Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.
What does this all mean?
In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.
The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.
So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.
It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.
We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.
And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.
I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.
