Cowboys season predictions ; Oddsmakers vs Fans

CouchCoach said:

Forgive them for they are fans and know not what they do. I will never fault any fan for their predictions and expectations or play the "told ya so" card

And spare me that objective fan that has lost that one thing that made them a fan, emotion.

I didn't make predictions because I didn't know what to expect and I was not over the shock of watching this team in that last playoff game. I still can't explain how that happened and I'll bet McVay can't either, that was far beyond what he expected and I'm sure that altered his tactics he had planned on before that game.

That was the most critical game of the season and they play like that? If I can't predict a run D that will give up 270, and mostly to a Tier 2 back, how in the hell can I predict anything about this team? Then they start the season against a mediocre OL but a Tier 1 RB and they do not look any better.

I did not expect good things from this team and had them at 6th in the NFC to start the season and that's where they are now. And I did that for one reason, what did they do after that game to address the problem? Not extend the OC. They ignored the problem.

If that had been any other team, and GM, that had done that in a playoff game, wouldn't you expect that to be the first order of business in the off season and draft? What did this guy do? Signed an edge rusher and drafted a questionable DT known for pass rushing, if he's known for anything except not showing up.

Some problems can't be fixed and certainly not as quickly as most of us expect but to ignore that and not to even address that should tell any fan of this team all they need to know.

The posters that I recall being pretty positive with their predictions all seemed to have one assumption, and it was not wrong to have it at that time. They assumed all these young players would improve and I can't point to one that did. That is as strange as that last playoff game. How do none of them get better? The best player on the D was that FA edge rusher.

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big dog cowboy said:

Oddsmakers base their odds on one thing - to get money out of your pocket.

NOT on what they think the Cowboys (or any team) will do.

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Diehardblues said:

As I look back on the preseason predictions from fans vs the oddsmakers we see a sharp contrast in how they and we picked and saw expectations.

Vegas had us picked as 5th in the NFC losing in WC round in the playoffs while fans hoped for a deep run to at least the championship game.

And fans based their expectations not on what proven handicappers and experts forecasted but their own hopes and aspirations.

“The Cowboys are currently tied for fifth in Vegas odds to win the Super Bowl at 20 to 1. Those figures translate to not making it out of the Wild Card round. For Cowboys fans, that would be a complete disappointment.”

“They are better than what the oddsmakers are giving them credit for, and the Cowboys will prove it. With an elite defense combined with an improved offense - the Cowboys are poised for something bigger this season.”

Amazing how fans go against oddsmakers and experts. We weren’t even picked to win our division. But yet fans somehow manufactured this was to be the season we should finally break thru to a championship appearance.

And our owner over hyped the season as well. At least he has a motive to promote his product.
https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2019/9/8/20854153/six-predictions-for-the-dallas-cowboys-2019-season

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Direwolf63 said:

Before the season started, I posted an article that predicted the Cowboys were due to regress this year. And the reason was that the Cowboys were 7-2 in one score games in 2018 and it was not sustainable. So they predicted they would fall back.

Reaction was hilarious. The article (and me) was lambasted. Laughed at. Totally rejected as idiocy.

Blind homers rule. Nothing wrong with being a homer. Everybody here is. But being blind is all too prevalent around here.

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Diehardblues said:

Of course but why should we use the emotion of some fans or owner to measure our expectations than those of experts and handicappers whose emotions aren’t attached?

It’s why I’ve always argued when predicting or wagering you must use your mind over heart. Leave your emotions in check. Vegas makes a living on fans betting on their own team because their emotions drive their decisions.

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CouchCoach said:

For one simple reason, actually two. One, some fans do not look at it as you or I would and two, some refuse to look to the future with anything but positive thoughts, they are wired that way or they successful wired themselves.

That's one of the struggles some have here, those that pride themselves on their objectivity have to label some posters as "homers" and I think that's BS and an insult.

As a card carrying pessimist for most of my life, and a proud one at that, I can tell you my most valuable lesson in optimism. It has nothing to do with the destination and everything to do with the journey. No fans are happy with this season but those that were negative about it from the beginning didn't even get the joy of believing. And if they end up 8-8 or 7-9, the fans that predicted that will not be any happier than the ones that were optimistic.

Greg, you are right, if one is wagering, the mind is the only organ that should be employed but for a fan, sometimes we've got to let the mind rest and the heart take over.

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Diehardblues said:

Like I responded to another here. That’s all fine and good Coach. We want all types of fans.

But when we’re looking for objective analysis we probably won’t be looking to the cheerleaders.

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Bobhaze said:

Let’s be honest Greggo. When it comes to being a fan of any sports team, it’s almost impossible for any fan to be objective. I would like to think I’m objective, but I know I’m usually not.

All of us on this forum have emotions about our favorite team that strongly influence our opinions. After all, this is an opinion forum. That’s what makes this place fun for me. As long as disagreements don’t get angry or personal, I like seeing different viewpoints. But I rarely see opinions on here that I would consider “objective”.

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Diehardblues said:

There were many of us who cautioned placing expectations so high for this season.

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CouchCoach said:

Mine is pretty much objective because that old fool has removed my emotion. It was my emotion that could drive my viewpoints, sway my benefit of the doubt.

I have never watched the Cowboys like this before. I am void of emotion and passion, I do not have that anticipatory feeling right before a game that I used to have and I just sit there and watch them. No anger or elation, just watch them. Even the division games and I used to get really jazzed for those games. Truth be told, I do not like this team. I do not care if the Eagles win the division.

I chalk part of this up to maturing, not saying others are immature for getting wacky, because I used to get carried away. It was more than just a game then and now, it's not even that. It's convenient for me to blame Booger for that but I allowed this to happen, I knew what was waiting if I allowed him to become the face of the franchise.

Ya know the odd thing about this, Bullet. This is as if Booger was reading our posts that he's acquiescing power to the son, backing off and making way for the new boss. Then, he comes roaring out of the background and has never been more out front and positioned as that face. And seeing that face angry or sad is as good as a win to me. And those with hope for this team do not accept what I see. The most dangerous combination for success, incompetence and defiance.

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