Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

Toruk_Makto

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That doesn't address assignments really. If your box isn't stacked and your LB still keys on Zeke first, that makes a difference.
If teams aren't putting more men in the box against Zeke than they are against guys like Alfred Morris that's a problem.

You can pretend they are always running different stunts but that's speculation. The biggest impact on rushing defense is how many men you commit to the box. Come on we know this is true.
 

Toruk_Makto

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Couple things, just for clarity.
Is this a new quote?

and also since I assume the study is across the league, is there any isolated study on teams that do have a potent rushing attack and how PA benefited or didn’t based on their rushing?


Like I just wonder if the ravens, 9ers, Seahawks, boys etc have a larger efficiency boost than say the bucs or falcons

The data is there for splits on good rushing teams and poor rushing teams and teams that ran a lot and teams that ran a little.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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What part of this is not true don't you understand?

You don't take well to people contradicting you. You know well I understand your argument. You are going to have to do a much better job than this petulance.

The stats we have seen to this point show that the teams with the lowest rushing attempts for the season do not get the benefit to their passing game from play action.

What is important from MM's comments is that it does not appear that he will be one of those teams.
 

Haimerej

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If teams aren't putting more men in the box against Zeke than they are against guys like Alfred Morris that's a problem.

You can pretend they are always running different stunts but that's speculation. The biggest impact on rushing defense is how many men you commit to the box. Come on we know this is true.

All I'm saying is you can give a basic look and have different keys. These variables aren't included by simply counting guys in the box to determine whether the gameplan is more focused on run vs pass.

If you think a Mike being told to key on a RB first doesn't affect coverage then you're wrong.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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The data is there for splits on good rushing teams and poor rushing teams and teams that ran a lot and teams that ran a little.

The data was derived from an average. those stats do not apply to anything real. those were also biased for within games not for the season or other splits.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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McCarty has not had a running back like Elliott before. so maybe he will change and run the ball more. if not we will see Elliott and pollard catch a lot of passes which sometimes is just a short handoff in a westcoast offense.

He used to feed Deuce McAllister the ball 300 times a season when he was in NO. Lacey got a ton of carries before he ate himself out of the league.
 

garyo1954

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A lot of nerd crap in this thread that completely separates itself from the game of football.

The same goes for McCarthy - maybe this analytic stuff matters in preparation for a game, but once you hit the field that stuff often goes right out the window due to situational football and all the analytical nerds can ever look at are the outcomes of games.

Lame and labeling him a "fraud" while he holds something very few other coaches in NFL history has held is hilarious. He obviously got it right once before.

It matters in how you prepare. It helps you understand what the other team has done, what they likely will do against you, and how you need to adjust to (at least) slow them down.
 

iamliko22

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Yes, we've already agreed I screwed up. I was talking off the top of my head like normal people do. So I'm ignoring it. Anyone who is interested could look it up themselves and post it.

I get it. I was just reading through and seen that now.
 

Zman5

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The OP used to be a big JG supporter. What do you expect? He misses the clapper.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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This isn't supported by the data. And you know it.

your article said:
On the other end of the spectrum we have four quarterbacks who actually posted a higher passer rating on non-play-action passes. This seemed weird to me, but perhaps the connection is all four passers’ teams also ranked bottom-10 in team rushing attempts over our sample. In the case of Roethlisberger, even if we bring the sample back to 2012 (when we first started recording play-action numbers for quarterbacks), Roethlisberger’s play-action passer rating was less than a full point higher than his non-play-action passer rating. Perhaps offensive coordinator Todd Haley (now with the Browns) was aware of this, considering only 11.9 percent of Roethlisberger’s pass attempts came on play action, which was the lowest rate within our sample. Similarly, Rodgers’ 16.9 percent play-action pass rate was the third-lowest within our sample.
 

percyhoward

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Right now, it's just words, so there's no way to know whether it's gamesmanship or he's really that out of touch. But we do know this much: It would certainly put the team at a competitive disadvantage if he is that out of touch.
 

cowboyec

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I'll take my chances with McCarthy's alleged fraudulent math vs 10yrs of garretts crap.
 
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