Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

buybuydandavis

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This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...

What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.


You have to work harder to have a convincing case that McCarthy is wrong.

A problem with one side correlational analysis in sports analytics is that it doesn't factor in how the other team adjusts to you, *which is the whole point* with play action.

You say "And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly". Let's test that out with a thought experiment.

Do you really think that our play action passing game would be just as effective if Zeke and Pollard are out and Chunn is our lead ball carrier?

Play calling is a causal intervention in the game, calling for a causal interventional analysis. That's what I would expect out of a professional sports analytics group.
 

CyberB0b

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I can't wait to see you prove that accusation. :muttley:

Funny thing is, I'm not excited about the McCarthy hiring. Some here are, I think because anyone not named "Jason Garrett" sounds good to them at this point (for reasons I understand), but claiming to know what happened in the interview (and whether it's true) is just a baseless accusation. You couldn't possibly know.

He said it in the announcement press conference with Jerry and Stephen. Go watch it yourself.

Thats a strong accusation calling him a liar and a con man. Got any proof?

See above.

Also,

https://www.___GET_REAL_URL___/s/am...es-interview-head-coach-dallas-cowboys-2020-1
 

AbeBeta

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Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...



What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.


Lol.

I'm a statistician by training and I've found Engineers excel at little aside from being high on the autism spectrum.
 

CATCH17

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You have to work harder to have a convincing case that McCarthy is wrong.

A problem with one side correlational analysis in sports analytics is that it doesn't factor in how the other team adjusts to you, *which is the whole point* with play action.

You say "And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly". Let's test that out with a thought experiment.

Do you really think that our play action passing game would be just as effective if Zeke and Pollard are out and Chunn is our lead ball carrier?

Play calling is a causal intervention in the game, calling for a causal interventional analysis. That's what I would expect out of a professional sports analytics group.


If the defense bites on the run it doesn’t matter how well you ran it before.
 

percyhoward

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In regard to play action, you need a QB running the offense from under center for the play fake to work. Thats not Dak's strength. Dak is overwhelmingly in shot gun. Dak is and has been the limiting factor on offense.
Dak's more successful with play action, just like 27 of the 32 QB with the most attempts in 2019 -- no matter how often they take the snap from under center. And "overwhelmingly in shotgun" is the norm. Prescott was near the middle of the league in percentage of pass attempts from under center.

Here's Dak, plus 10 other QB who were in shotgun more than he was in 2019.

Attempts from Under Center
(as a percentage of total attempts)

Prescott 21.6%
Dalton 20.3%
Allen 19.3%
Wilson 17.9%
Brissett 16.1%
Wentz 14.7%
Minshew 13.6%
Rivers 13.2%
Watson 12.9%
Jones 10.2%
Mahomes 8.5%

Same QB, with passer rating on play-action pass attempts (vs. with no play action)
Prescott 107.3 (97.6)
Dalton 97.2 (73.7)
Allen 110.4 (77.1)
Wilson 118.8 (102.8)
Brissett 93.7 (86.3)
Wentz 100.6 (90.1)
Minshew 142.7 (83.7)
Rivers 120.4 (83.0)
Watson 94.9 (100.2)
Jones 112.0 (82.9)
Mahomes 99.5 (107.1)

With a couple of exceptions, most of these guys were better -- and usually much better -- with play action. How do you explain why play action worked for all these QB who spent more time in shotgun than Dak?
 

Zman5

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The hype about McCarthy and analytics is really more a statement on how poor a coach Garrett was with his stubbornness on not adapting analytics or his offensive concepts.

97% of NFL teams relied on analytics before McCarthy took over for Garrett. Now 100% of teams do.

Again, just speaks to how truly inept Garrett was.

You don't need analytics if you have a Ivy league education.
- signed the Clapper.
 

gjkoeppen

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You might want to read post #87 again. It shows that ~90% of the QBs in the NFL perform better when using play action. That is something we all agree on.

It shows nothing about good rushing teams being more successful on play action.

The disagreement is "you gotta be able to run the ball well to set up play action."

How can you be so blind to such a simple logic. If teams have a good running game defenses play defenses designed to stop the run thus making their pass defense more vulnerable. Since you can't or don't get this it makes me think because of your background you more of a geek and have very little actual NFL knowledge.
.
 

ConstantReboot

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Mike McCarthy is not a fraud. To call him that is being naive and nonsensical. He has a point when using play action the run has to work. I agree with him. That's because if the run isn't working and we keep using play action, the defense will just ignore it and hone in on the QB.

I do hope that play-action should be used quite frequently in our offense. Garrett was an idiot not to incorporate it as part of our offense. There should be no reason why a team that runs the ball on 1st and 2nd down so much is one of the least in using play action. That is how dumb Garrett is. If anything, Garrett is a fraud for failing to use play action. Not McCarthy.
 

ConstantReboot

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Like I said.. McCarthy is like all of these big ego coaches that speak about all the changes they want to do from what they did before but the reality is that they are just doing whatever it takes to get another million dollar job.

McCarthy sold everyone some BS and a lot of people bought it.

That's silly. How can you call it BS while he hasn't even played a down yet? He hasn't been name HC for more than a week yet and already people are ready to run him out of town.

We gave Garrett more than a decade to prove his worth. I think a head coach like McCarthy should be afforded at least 3 to 4 years or even less to see what he can do with the team at the present moment.
 

Little Jr

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That is not necessarily true. If you are a child or someone has no fear of being punched then they will not flinch.

In this case front 7 players are taught to react to run keys by taking gap assignments. If the DC is not afraid of the run then they will change the keys so they stay back and/or pass rush for longer. IE instead of when you see the OL start to run block you wait until after the exchange to verify it happens.

Now with us, Zeke being on the field likely makes it such that it doesn't matter because defenses sell out to stop him no matter what. Pollard is a different animal though.

PFF stats are for the whole league and as your article pointed out the conclusions are not universal but instead break down when you look at specific offenses, RB, and the like.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/play-action-passing-and-game-conditions
 

Playmaker247

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How can you be so blind to such a simple logic. If teams have a good running game defenses play defenses designed to stop the run thus making their pass defense more vulnerable. Since you can't or don't get this it makes me think because of your background you more of a geek and have very little actual NFL knowledge.
.
So you think you have to be able to run for play action to work effectively?
 

Buzzbait

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It was evident from his press conference that he struggled to articulate how his newfound appreciation for analytics would make him a better coach. He was asked multiple times, and gave a non-answer each time.

If you were the new HC, would you be willing to tell the world including your future opponents what you do, what you know, how you know it, and how you intend to use it? And if you don't tell all, you get labeled a "fraud" by negative football fans. :confused:
The Cowboys already use analytics as do many if not all the teams. How individual coaches utilize this data is up to them, but if they don't, they risk forfeiting a possible advantage to their opponents.

Considering McCarthy's winning record compared to what we know about Garrett based on 10 years experience, I don't understand how anyone could not see McCarthy as a serious upgrade over Garrett till time proves different.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Is there an explanation why 15% of QBs do not get the benefit in there? All I saw cursorily was it was averages extrapolated and biased.

What we should be interested in is the Cowboys offense and their opposing defenses.
 

Beast_from_East

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Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...



What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.

Beast dont care.

Garrett is out there icing his own kicker, blowing challenges, misusing timeouts, botching the clock, ect……..should I keep going, because I can.
 

Little Jr

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Is there an explanation why 15% of QBs do not get the benefit in there? All I saw cursorily was it was averages extrapolated and biased.

What we should be interested in is the Cowboys offense and their opposing defenses.
15% dont get the benefit? As far as seeing bias, see what you want, there is no bias. Just because the data shows you are wrong, and many others, doesnt mean its bias. Its just data showing running well, or a lot, as no affect on play action. There is plenty of data showing this, the only thing showing the run helps playaction is people saying it. Lol
 

Miller

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Man I didn’t know we had so many people qualified to coach here. A guy who spent his life in the league and won a SB vs Cowboy zoners. Who knew? This is comical
 
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