10 things I think off-season edition

McKDaddy

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Tannehill had a very solid season because he had the rushing attack to create wide open TD passes.
Tannehill only passed for 228 yards per game.
That's essentially what Dak did as a rookie.
He still had some recurring issues namely his sack % was very high. ~10%. (By contract
Dak is at 6.2% for his career)
That's been a career long issue for RT but is less an issue when you are rushing it at such a great clip.

Dak passed for over 70 yards more per game and took fewer sacks.
Dallas offense went as Dak went.
TENN offense went as Henry went and RT just took advantage with TD passes.

Not sure what numbers you are looking at. In the 10 regular season games he started, he threw for 2,598 so that is 260 \ game. Over that span he completed 69.63% for 22 TD & 5 Interceptions. Very efficient.

Henry had one 100 yard game prior to RT (exactly 100 at Atlanta) and did not rush for 100 yards or more again until the 4th game RT started. However, his efficiency jumped significantly. His avg rush had been below 4.0 with the exception of one game prior to RT. After RT, he was never below 4.1 & as high as 8.4.

In this case, i think its pretty clear that Tannehill's efficiency was what broke the offense open. Of course the presence of Henry benefitted RT but Henry was facing 100% defensive focus because Mariotta wasn't making the throws to back them off. I watched many of the games and to say that RT was just completing wide open passes is completely wrong. He was making extremely high level throws. That's not just my opinion. Tony & Nantz were marveling during the broadcasts. Former QB's on the different shows were praising the quality of his throws.

The analogy to Dallas is correct. The intent is for the offense to flow thru the running game. When Dak forces defenses to respect the pass, things tend to go very well. When he doesn't, defenses just key on the run game & we lose.
 

Aven8

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Tannehill had a very solid season because he had the rushing attack to create wide open TD passes.
Tannehill only passed for 228 yards per game.
That's essentially what Dak did as a rookie.
He still had some recurring issues namely his sack % was very high. ~10%. (By contract
Dak is at 6.2% for his career)
That's been a career long issue for RT but is less an issue when you are rushing it at such a great clip.

Dak passed for over 70 yards more per game and took fewer sacks.
Dallas offense went as Dak went.
TENN offense went as Henry went and RT just took advantage with TD passes.

It’s because Tannehill is a WR. ;)
 

jterrell

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Not sure what numbers you are looking at. In the 10 regular season games he started, he threw for 2,598 so that is 260 \ game. Over that span he completed 69.63% for 22 TD & 5 Interceptions. Very efficient.

Henry had one 100 yard game prior to RT (exactly 100 at Atlanta) and did not rush for 100 yards or more again until the 4th game RT started. However, his efficiency jumped significantly. His avg rush had been below 4.0 with the exception of one game prior to RT. After RT, he was never below 4.1 & as high as 8.4.

In this case, i think its pretty clear that Tannehill's efficiency was what broke the offense open. Of course the presence of Henry benefitted RT but Henry was facing 100% defensive focus because Mariotta wasn't making the throws to back them off. I watched many of the games and to say that RT was just completing wide open passes is completely wrong. He was making extremely high level throws. That's not just my opinion. Tony & Nantz were marveling during the broadcasts. Former QB's on the different shows were praising the quality of his throws.

The analogy to Dallas is correct. The intent is for the offense to flow thru the running game. When Dak forces defenses to respect the pass, things tend to go very well. When he doesn't, defenses just key on the run game & we lose.
He played in 12 games.
1 was mop up duty. Th other non-start wasn't and he has 144 yards passing on 16 attempts.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm

In the playoffs he threw for a whopping 123 yards per game. And they managed to win 2 playoffs games with that passing yardage.
 

McKDaddy

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He played in 12 games.
1 was mop up duty. Th other non-start wasn't and he has 144 yards passing on 16 attempts.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm

In the playoffs he threw for a whopping 123 yards per game. And they managed to win 2 playoffs games with that passing yardage.
Yeah, I know all that. I never said he was great in the playoffs. But he was good enough to get to the conference championship.
 

VACowboy

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I still think that analytics misses the point of what the game is about and the need to play a game when it arrives. Practice and heart means a lot to a team...as does home field, to many games.
And chemistry.
 

Super_Kazuya

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Yeah, I know all that. I never said he was great in the playoffs. But he was good enough to get to the conference championship.
Your stats were correct, the OP is a troll. He averaged about 260 yards per start as a starter. Tannehill obliterated Dak this season, and Dak slobberers are hopping mad about it. I’ve never seen so much hand waving by so many losers.
 

jterrell

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Yeah, I know all that. I never said he was great in the playoffs. But he was good enough to get to the conference championship.
The TEAM was good enough.
Anyone arguing Tannehill was the reason they succeeded wasn't actually watching their games.

It was defense and rushing attack leading the way just like for about half the playoff field.

Tannehill is an average to below average starter. He has an 8 year career to judge and is 31 years old.
TENN can win with him if they limit his passing opportunities. TENN this year was much like DAL in 2016. QB was efficient but wasn't asked to be a weapon or carry the team.
 

jterrell

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And chemistry.
Still 3 phases of a game to win.
Offense, defense and special teams.
On offense you can win with fairly mediocre QB play by taking care of the football and controlling the clock.
You do not have to sit in 2 minute offense and blast teams to the moon.
But if you have assembled the team KC has, why of course it is the most fun way to win.
You just need insurmountable offensive talent to do so. --which is nearly impossible to assemble then keep healthy.
 

Irvin88_4life

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1. I think analytics twitter needs to step back and count to 10 with some deep breaths to allow blood to return to their brain pans. The are now arguing Ryan Tannehill is responsible for Tenn's success. Yes the 21st ranked passing offense really carried that squad. And we have 7 years of Tannehill being so awesome....

2. I think the Dak whining threads are great. They are one stop shopping for whom to place on ignore. This cleaned up environment makes the site much more user-friendly, and well... sane. So thank you dolts. I can check likes and get a bunch of numbskulls at once. It's like a cure for migraines.

3. I think it is almost sad that Jason Garrett ended up taking a demotion to OC. If he is not very good in NY his career as a HC may well be over. Would you bet on a 2nd year Danny Dimes and that NY offense? I wouldn't. But I also think you now know why Jerry held off and forced JG to honor his contract. He wasn't gonna walk with his pay check to NY before his contract ended.

4. I think I am concerned DAL coaches are missing he Senior Bowl but I do probably end up in the camp that overrate that exercise. Self-evaluation has to be job 1.

5. I think the two most insufferable non-obvious troll camps in NFL twitter/social media are Analytics guys and Draft guys. Both for the same reason. They are simply overwhelmed by confirmation bias to the extent they are no longer focused on reality or the actual game. The Cowboys or Pack or whomever you follow are probably not drafting your pet cat. You have crap odds. 1 in 32 isn't good. When they don't just shut up and move on, lol.

5a. Note: The 49ers have passed for less than 100 yards per game in the post-season on the way to the Super BOWL. So please shut up about the Chiefs as some rock solid evidence passing is king.

6. I think Go Chiefs!!

7. I think people miss the impact a different voice can have on players. We saw Dak really benefit last year from new drills and coaching to see him massively improve his aggressiveness and his footwork and his fumbling. Apply this across the board and the team will be poised to make a playoff run. Helps if the other team doesn't know your entire playbook too.

8. I think this off-season will actually be quite fun. This team is not status quo in any way. The draft will mean something as the new staff tries to find their guys.

9. I think I am quite happy Witten is going to NY. That will be at least 1 TE our safeties and LB can actually guard.

10. I think anyone is lying if they think they have any idea what this defense will look like next year. Nolan is years removed from designing a defense and no telling what he has picked up or what he feels of this personnel.
Great stuff and can't dispute anything you said, I really enjoyed your thoughts.
 

jterrell

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I disagree, I think Garrett is well placed to stick a knife into the back of another HC. Just like he did to Wade.
In DAL JG was hired before Wade because he was always the long term plan.
In NY they asked permission to interview JG then quickly fell off that plan as he was targeted as OC all along.

Wade has a pattern where he comes in and maximizes what his defense does led by his DL. They attack with a few new wrinkles and techniques to get an edge. But over time he changes zero and they just come at you over and over until you figure it out. Teams do figure it out and his defenses fade.

JG was a really poor OC here. So poor he got himself fired as OC and forced to be the CEO type coach. That move bought himself 4 more years.

All in all the only person I think JG tanks in NYG will be himself.
 

dckid

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1. I think analytics twitter needs to step back and count to 10 with some deep breaths to allow blood to return to their brain pans. The are now arguing Ryan Tannehill is responsible for Tenn's success. Yes the 21st ranked passing offense really carried that squad. And we have 7 years of Tannehill being so awesome....

2. I think the Dak whining threads are great. They are one stop shopping for whom to place on ignore. This cleaned up environment makes the site much more user-friendly, and well... sane. So thank you dolts. I can check likes and get a bunch of numbskulls at once. It's like a cure for migraines.

3. I think it is almost sad that Jason Garrett ended up taking a demotion to OC. If he is not very good in NY his career as a HC may well be over. Would you bet on a 2nd year Danny Dimes and that NY offense? I wouldn't. But I also think you now know why Jerry held off and forced JG to honor his contract. He wasn't gonna walk with his pay check to NY before his contract ended.

4. I think I am concerned DAL coaches are missing he Senior Bowl but I do probably end up in the camp that overrate that exercise. Self-evaluation has to be job 1.

5. I think the two most insufferable non-obvious troll camps in NFL twitter/social media are Analytics guys and Draft guys. Both for the same reason. They are simply overwhelmed by confirmation bias to the extent they are no longer focused on reality or the actual game. The Cowboys or Pack or whomever you follow are probably not drafting your pet cat. You have crap odds. 1 in 32 isn't good. When they don't just shut up and move on, lol.

5a. Note: The 49ers have passed for less than 100 yards per game in the post-season on the way to the Super BOWL. So please shut up about the Chiefs as some rock solid evidence passing is king.

6. I think Go Chiefs!!

7. I think people miss the impact a different voice can have on players. We saw Dak really benefit last year from new drills and coaching to see him massively improve his aggressiveness and his footwork and his fumbling. Apply this across the board and the team will be poised to make a playoff run. Helps if the other team doesn't know your entire playbook too.

8. I think this off-season will actually be quite fun. This team is not status quo in any way. The draft will mean something as the new staff tries to find their guys.

9. I think I am quite happy Witten is going to NY. That will be at least 1 TE our safeties and LB can actually guard.

10. I think anyone is lying if they think they have any idea what this defense will look like next year. Nolan is years removed from designing a defense and no telling what he has picked up or what he feels of this personnel.


Good points although I don't agree with all of them.

The running game has been revived this postseason with SF, Tenn & or Baltimore. While that is great I don't want to dismiss the past 15-20 years of the passing game evolution that has happened.
To me it kicked off with the 99 Rams. Everyone would knock them because they were like the run and gun, very little TE usage, pass first, but they also had Faulk.
The pass revolution is here to stay, and this is the best course to consistently win in this league.
SF is scheme , play calling and toughness which translates to we will hit you in the mouth and will not get cute if you can't stop us. Their roll and cut running game is exactly like the Broncos of the late 90's.
If the Packers were able to secure the edge maybe that game goes differently.

As far as QB goes, what is a good answer. We all want our team to have an elite superstar player but there are just a limited number of those guys.
Top 15 QB salaries:
Wilson,Big Ben ,Rodgers,Goff,Wentz,Ryan,Cousins,Jimmy,Stafford,Carr,Brees,Alex Smith,Brady,Flacco,Foles
Then Netwton, Dalton
I don't want to pay Dak 35 million and I also don't trust our Front office to find someone else. What have you seen over the past 25 years that makes you believe our FO can find a QB. Romo was picked up because of Sean Payton, Dak was our 5th choice in 2016 and the FO thought Romo was going to play for 4 to 5 more years. They never looked at Dak as a starter. Hingsight is 20/20 right so do we reward Dak with an absurd contract... to me that is door number 1, it's the easy choice, based on our history that is probably going to happen.
Do you think our FO has the wisdom to use the transitional tag, or just go and sign a Case Keenum, Bridgewater, Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, or even a Fitz, CJ Beathard, Rosen.?
 

JustChip

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The amazing part is the analytics guys not knowing what the analysis actually shows. But that's what happens when you get a little mini-cult of people who think they are smart all touting made up stats as the end all be all.
The thing about the analytics in football is the underlying data used to formulate what should be done now is based on what has historically been done situationally. However, as teams adopt analytics and more and more go against the historical norms, the increased data will shift the situational expectations provided by analytics.

E.g., teams go for the 2 point conversion currently and historically at a low rate. Analytics extrapolates that teams should always go for 2. But if all teams go for 2 points all the time, the actual data of that scenario may show that they should go for 2 points more in line with the current historical norms.
 
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Verdict

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1. I think analytics twitter needs to step back and count to 10 with some deep breaths to allow blood to return to their brain pans. The are now arguing Ryan Tannehill is responsible for Tenn's success. Yes the 21st ranked passing offense really carried that squad. And we have 7 years of Tannehill being so awesome....

Good point

2. I think the Dak whining threads are great. They are one stop shopping for whom to place on ignore. This cleaned up environment makes the site much more user-friendly, and well... sane. So thank you dolts. I can check likes and get a bunch of numbskulls at once. It's like a cure for migraines.

Preach it.

3. I think it is almost sad that Jason Garrett ended up taking a demotion to OC. If he is not very good in NY his career as a HC may well be over. Would you bet on a 2nd year Danny Dimes and that NY offense? I wouldn't. But I also think you now know why Jerry held off and forced JG to honor his contract. He wasn't gonna walk with his pay check to NY before his contract ended.

Garrett will be fine. He has made plenty of money. He is young enough he will get a head coaching gig somewhere if he wants it.

Giants could be a rebound team. High draft picks


4. I think I am concerned DAL coaches are missing he Senior Bowl but I do probably end up in the camp that overrate that exercise. Self-evaluation has to be job 1.

Agreed

5. I think the two most insufferable non-obvious troll camps in NFL twitter/social media are Analytics guys and Draft guys. Both for the same reason. They are simply overwhelmed by confirmation bias to the extent they are no longer focused on reality or the actual game. The Cowboys or Pack or whomever you follow are probably not drafting your pet cat. You have crap odds. 1 in 32 isn't good. When they don't just shut up and move on, lol.

Amen.

5a. Note: The 49ers have passed for less than 100 yards per game in the post-season on the way to the Super BOWL. So please shut up about the Chiefs as some rock solid evidence passing is king.

Spot on.

6. I think Go Chiefs!!

Yes. SB Champs or bust.

7. I think people miss the impact a different voice can have on players. We saw Dak really benefit last year from new drills and coaching to see him massively improve his aggressiveness and his footwork and his fumbling. Apply this across the board and the team will be poised to make a playoff run. Helps if the other team doesn't know your entire playbook too.

Correct

8. I think this off-season will actually be quite fun. This team is not status quo in any way. The draft will mean something as the new staff tries to find their guys.

It’s exciting isn’t it?

9. I think I am quite happy Witten is going to NY. That will be at least 1 TE our safeties and LB can actually guard.

Good riddance to 82.

10. I think anyone is lying if they think they have any idea what this defense will look like next year. Nolan is years removed from designing a defense and no telling what he has picked up or what he feels of this personnel.

Right again.

.
 

jterrell

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The thing about the analytics in football is the underlying data used to formulate what should be done now is based on what has historically been done situationally. However, as teams adopt analytics and more and more go against the historical norms, the increased data will shift the situational expectations provided by analytics.

E.g., teams go for the 2 point conversion currently and historically at a low rate. Analytics extrapolates that teams should always go for 2. But if all teams go for 2 points all the time, the actual data of that scenario may show that they should go for 2 points more in line with the current historical norms.
exactly!!

MY chart says " "...
Other team --Well THEIR chart says " " .. so we are going to stop that.

Data is great but you can;t play football like a simulation.
It is a very nuanced thing with feel and variables galore.


2 point thing is another example.
2 points succeed at solid rates because teams go for them when
a: they are confident they can make them.
b: other team is up big and it doesn't matter much
c: when they've got a play they scouted for the opponent.

MORE attempts OBVIOUSLY reduces ALL those factors for success.
But analytics often refuses to use logic and instead just point to numbers.

NOT marrying logic with data is the problem.
 

jterrell

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Good points although I don't agree with all of them.

The running game has been revived this postseason with SF, Tenn & or Baltimore. While that is great I don't want to dismiss the past 15-20 years of the passing game evolution that has happened.
To me it kicked off with the 99 Rams. Everyone would knock them because they were like the run and gun, very little TE usage, pass first, but they also had Faulk.
The pass revolution is here to stay, and this is the best course to consistently win in this league.
SF is scheme , play calling and toughness which translates to we will hit you in the mouth and will not get cute if you can't stop us. Their roll and cut running game is exactly like the Broncos of the late 90's.
If the Packers were able to secure the edge maybe that game goes differently.

As far as QB goes, what is a good answer. We all want our team to have an elite superstar player but there are just a limited number of those guys.
Top 15 QB salaries:
Wilson,Big Ben ,Rodgers,Goff,Wentz,Ryan,Cousins,Jimmy,Stafford,Carr,Brees,Alex Smith,Brady,Flacco,Foles
Then Netwton, Dalton
I don't want to pay Dak 35 million and I also don't trust our Front office to find someone else. What have you seen over the past 25 years that makes you believe our FO can find a QB. Romo was picked up because of Sean Payton, Dak was our 5th choice in 2016 and the FO thought Romo was going to play for 4 to 5 more years. They never looked at Dak as a starter. Hingsight is 20/20 right so do we reward Dak with an absurd contract... to me that is door number 1, it's the easy choice, based on our history that is probably going to happen.
Do you think our FO has the wisdom to use the transitional tag, or just go and sign a Case Keenum, Bridgewater, Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, or even a Fitz, CJ Beathard, Rosen.?

If we all agreed on everything, the forum would be quite boring.

But your post is quite puzzling in the way you state passing is king yet you wanna go sign an off the street bum QB.

With Dak it is very simple. You pay the man and keep it moving.
Folks who don't see that are simply lost in the wash.
He's been everything you want at QB.
He's productive, tough and constantly improving.

No one wants to pay anyone 35M but that is the going rate and such is life.
I don't wanna pay my mortgage but I also don't wanna move out of my house.

Of the QBs you listed MAYBE Bridgewater can be on Dak's level but then again not really because he hasn't stayed healthy.
These other guys are really not comprable AT ALL.

Dak's career passer rating is tied for 5th ALL-TIME.
It's significantly higher than anyone you listed.
That doesn't include his rushing ability nor his simple toughness.
 

jterrell

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The thing about the analytics in football is the underlying data used to formulate what should be done now is based on what has historically been done situationally. However, as teams adopt analytics and more and more go against the historical norms, the increased data will shift the situational expectations provided by analytics.

E.g., teams go for the 2 point conversion currently and historically at a low rate. Analytics extrapolates that teams should always go for 2. But if all teams go for 2 points all the time, the actual data of that scenario may show that they should go for 2 points more in line with the current historical norms.
BTW, Data is very very important.
You should constantly check your data versus others and seek to understand what the data is really telling you.

What you can't do is assign too much value to a specific set of data that is constantly changing.
And most importantly you can not ignore your specific set of circumstances.

--Did I go for it enough on 4th down?
Well you were 5% below average so no.
--But My OL was banged up and we converted 8% less than league average on 4th down.
Still shouda went for it!!
--Why?
Because we don't allow variables all the numbers are equal across the simulation.
If you go for it now and also when your OL is healthy is it will all averag eout.
--But I want to win today not in 2 years.
Tough tiddy.

If your uncle owns 5 Dunkin Donuts in the Northeast and has made 1m a year off them on average you cna see the vision right?
So you move to Los Angeles and dump every dollar you can scrape together in buying 5 Dunkin Donuts.
All good except there were factors such as brand loyalty, dietary goals and other crap you forgot to factor in.

Variables matter.
 

jterrell

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Why the hell would anyone be sad for Garrett? Dude doesn't deserve another HC gig ----- ever.
I think JF is a great guy that I am glad is no longer my favorite team's Head Coach.
Did not want him as OC when we hired him, did not want him as HC when promoted.

I thought he would be most suited to going to Coach an Ivy League college team.
Shape some very bright young minds who will do things beyond football for a career.
 
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