10 things I think I think

[Section446]

I know that wasn't me 446, but yes, given the young talent infusion into the secondary and what Lawrence is this year vs 2016 and possibly Irving as well......yes, they have a bit more talent (especially young talent) now than in 2016.

I'm saying this while saying that Dak is Dak talent-wise. I don't think he is LESS talented now than in 2016...just maybe more exposed. His results were better but whatever level of talent he really has did not decline at this young age.
Fingers crossed on him improving.

Btw, I saw your list after I posted this...some good point in there--especially with Leary and Hitchens.
This year's version still does have it's FA additions or draft picks though. To make it equal, you will eventually have to include that

I get it, the off-season is young and a lot can still happen. I just don't think that the front office views this as a contender type of season, and I think we've seen that with the way they've handled free agency. I really think that they know we're too far away from other teams in the NFC, and they're gathering assets for a run in a couple of seasons. If that is indeed the case, I can absolutely respect that, and I'm fine with it. I just wish that they'd quit insulting our intelligence and come out and say that that we aren't going for it this year, I wouldn't like it, but I'd be a lot happier with that than being lied to.

I honestly have absolutely no faith in Dak Prescott right now. I've met the guy, I like the guy a lot as a person, he's great for the community, he does a lot behind the scenes with the public that he gets no publicity for, he's about as good a face of the franchise as you can ask for as a human being. Having said that, we're seeing why he went in the fourth round, instead of the first. Mechanically, he's a clone of Tim Tebow... neither one struggles(ed) with arm strength, they struggle with accuracy, specifically the short-to-intermediate, which is where the majority of throws will take place in the NFL. Furthermore, the guy has been exposed as the type of QB that cannot handle the pressure of carrying the franchise (like Aaron Rodgers), instead, he needs the perfect situation around him (MVP candidate RB, elite OL, etc...). Now don't get me wrong, the fact that he falls into the norm is not lost on me, I fully recognize that this is the case with the vast majority of QB's in the league right now. But, unlike other QB's where that is the case (Goff, Cousins, etc...), Dak lacks the "proto-type" ability to take the team to the next level under perfect circumstances.

As an investor in the team, I desire nothing more than for this team to take the next step. But I treat my relationship with the Cowboys like I do my stock portfolio... when the company I'm investing in slows on dividends, or has a poor first quarter (or in this case the off-season, which is generally a good indicator for the rest of the year), I struggle to be overly optimistic. Unfortunately, the CEO of our company (the Cowboys) needs to be taken out to pasture and relieved of his duties... unfortunately, that is not likely to happen unless there's some kind of divine intervention, and I'm not in the business of wishing that on anyone. The first rots from the head down, we have a spineless CEO, one of the worst HC's in the league, and a "franchise QB" that I have zero faith in. As much as I want to be optimistic, I refuse to be blindly optimistic.

 

[LocimusPrime]

They have a complete team, so they just have to be able to sustain the spending for 2018 and 2020. They have to do some restructuring in 2019, but there are at least 3 big contracts that are available.
If you look at 2020, they have almost $30M of cap space right now. Assuming some restructuring in 2019, let's say they have $20M of cap space for 2020.
The major contracts for them in 2020 is Wentz and their LT.
Lets look at a 5 year $35M AAV contract and $75M signing bonus.
year--Year 1---Year 2---Year 3---Year 4---Year 5
base----$1M----$25M---$25M----$25M----$25M
bonus--$15M---$15M---$15M----$15M----$15M
cap hit--$16M---$40M---$40M---$40M----$40M

So Wentz's 2020 cap hit is $16M - no problem to fit his contract and even the LT contract in 2020. THAT IS BEFORE ANY RESTRUCTURING

In 2021, if you need space, you then restructure again to give him a restructuring bonus of $20M that will be split 4x to $5M/yr. Then his 2021 cap hit would be $15M+$1M+$5M = $21M. That is still manageable.

So we are now into 2022, and you can keep playing this game.

You will have to play the piper sooner or later, but that could well be 2023 or later.
At that point, who cares.

And as I have advocated, have a year or 2 of tanking, and you just reloaded with young talent players all timed with the cap explosion that will come much later.

Exactly. Why can't peeps understand this accounting game bro.

 

[waldoputty]

I get it, the off-season is young and a lot can still happen. I just don't think that the front office views this as a contender type of season, and I think we've seen that with the way they've handled free agency. I really think that they know we're too far away from other teams in the NFC, and they're gathering assets for a run in a couple of seasons. If that is indeed the case, I can absolutely respect that, and I'm fine with it. I just wish that they'd quit insulting our intelligence and come out and say that that we aren't going for it this year, I wouldn't like it, but I'd be a lot happier with that than being lied to.

I honestly have absolutely no faith in Dak Prescott right now. I've met the guy, I like the guy a lot as a person, he's great for the community, he does a lot behind the scenes with the public that he gets no publicity for, he's about as good a face of the franchise as you can ask for as a human being. Having said that, we're seeing why he went in the fourth round, instead of the first. Mechanically, he's a clone of Tim Tebow... neither one struggles(ed) with arm strength, they struggle with accuracy, specifically the short-to-intermediate, which is where the majority of throws will take place in the NFL. Furthermore, the guy has been exposed as the type of QB that cannot handle the pressure of carrying the franchise (like Aaron Rodgers), instead, he needs the perfect situation around him (MVP candidate RB, elite OL, etc...). Now don't get me wrong, the fact that he falls into the norm is not lost on me, I fully recognize that this is the case with the vast majority of QB's in the league right now. But, unlike other QB's where that is the case (Goff, Cousins, etc...), Dak lacks the "proto-type" ability to take the team to the next level under perfect circumstances.

As an investor in the team, I desire nothing more than for this team to take the next step. But I treat my relationship with the Cowboys like I do my stock portfolio... when the company I'm investing in slows on dividends, or has a poor first quarter (or in this case the off-season, which is generally a good indicator for the rest of the year), I struggle to be overly optimistic. Unfortunately, the CEO of our company (the Cowboys) needs to be taken out to pasture and relieved of his duties... unfortunately, that is not likely to happen unless there's some kind of divine intervention, and I'm not in the business of wishing that on anyone. The first rots from the head down, we have a spineless CEO, one of the worst HC's in the league, and a "franchise QB" that I have zero faith in. As much as I want to be optimistic, I refuse to be blindly optimistic.

football is a long term investment.

 

[waldoputty]

Exactly. Why can't peeps understand this accounting game bro.

either they dont want to read, or they refuse to accept simple accounting.

 

[Section446]

football is a long term investment.

22 years of no dividends and bad quarterly reports.

 

[waldoputty]

22 years of no dividends and bad quarterly reports.

if you count the that, surprised you are still a fan.
but the current team is incomplete and we basically have to live with what the fo does to upgrade it.
the best case scenario is that they learned the garbage bin is a waste of money.
imo, fleming would represent 1 level above garbage bin because i think he is a good backup having performed decently in 4 ol positions.
he is also young and not injury-prone unlike paea.
that assumes he does not turn into a pumpkin after leaving the pats offense and brady.

 

[xwalker]

This is a Cowboys hope edition.
If you are prone to crying fits and being miserable this thread may help you either feel better or throw more fits.

1. Most interesting thing I've seen this off-season was a Chief's GM stating he called last off-season about Antony Hitchens. He named the guy he called. Will McClay. If you didn;t know Will McClay was essentially GM, now you should. He has as much personnel control as Jimmy Johnson ever did. That makes him the GM.
1a. A lot of people have job duties that go well beyond their title. The ones who really don't much care the ones who are paid for the duties and not the title. If you are McClay this is kind of perfect. Teams can keep offering him jobs and maybe he takes the ideal one or he can keep getting raises because until he has an official title Dallas has to allow him to interview for that position.

2. Honey Badger is a fun player to watch and a guy who turned a season kicked out of LSU into a legit pro career. But not all players are equivalent. Saying we don't like Earl Thomas at 11m per year and a 1st so we just go to the next best thing with HB is rather goofy. Totally different players. The position has the same name but it is not actually the same. ET s a one man umbrella over the defense who can also play the run. Think of him like a missile defense system.HB is just one missile.
2a. But 7m is nothing... The deal Sammy Watkins signed which most deem utterly insane costs 8m in year 1 cap hit. That is basically the Cowboys total free agent budget. 7-8M. I know they CAN do more, but unless a bargain jumps at them smart money is on 7-8M being their total outside FA spend.

3. The teams who jump early and are ultra aggressive can land key players. But history says those guys who sign that first week are mostly overpaid. Players are a finite resource but so are places to play. A safety like Eric Reid or Sonny Vaccaro may well end up playing for 4-5m a year on a 2 year deal that allows Dallas to pay a 3m cap hit. Patience in FA can be rewarded.

4. The Eagles are being run like a Madden franchise. That team has been full tilt boogie for a year now. And that title was sweet for them. But now they find out how hard defending a title is and how valuable the draft is for adding quality cheap talent. They just literally do not care to draft. It's bananas. They aren't just cap strapped in 2018. They are by and far the most cap strapped team for 2019 already. But it'll all work out because Wentz will play for cheap come 2020 right? Watching them that implode over the next two years is going to be delicious.

5. Dallas official visits list has Ridley and Hernandez. Guessing Dallas would be quite happy with those two guys at 19 and 50. I actually like Hernandez more. As a guy who knocks his man off the ball every play is more important to me than a guy who runs silk smooth routes. At least for this offense.

6. It's been a tough few months for Dallas fans. All the Zeke drama and the 9-7 to no where and Sodom city title. But our time comes draft day. Like many a team who fell short the reward comes Draft weekend. The event is being held here in Dallas and that will be a time to maximize this roster and salary cap. Dallas has a very good cache of draft picks and they've been using them well under McClay.

7. Dez Bryant is one of my favorite Cowboys. He plays with his heart of his sleeve and he's a competitor.
I do think he was at risk of cut at one point but the failed deal for Sammy Watkins and the overall insane contracts given to WR's likely mean he is back. The smart money has always pointed to an extension that creates a Watkins like deal going forward that costs far less this season.

8. Which player do you want?
Player A: Prior 3 seasons: 13.5 sacks, 91 tackles, 46 games played.
Player B: Prior 3 seasons: 11.5 sacks, 52 tackles, 35 games played.
As you may have guessed Player B is David Irving. A guy the entire fan base seems to have confused. He's shown immense flashes but his body of work has been pretty sparse.
Player A is Tyrone Crawford, resident fan whipping boy.
This is just context to hopefully shape some more sensible discussions.

9. Dak-friendly. This does not mean you have to rebuild the entire offense. This basically means maybe you could block for the guy. Especially on his blind side? Abebeta has done a masterful job breaking down Dak's numbers with 5 starting NFL OL in front of him and with the retreads we used at back up last year. Dak has to improve personally but simply giving him a legit LT makes him a top 10 QB statistically.

10. The Process. I am not sure if anyone has ever participated in process reviews or major ITIL/Six Sigma training but the first thing you learn is processes only work if followed to completion. You can't skip steps and pick and choose. If Dallas was going to overhaul the overpaid Romo-led star-driven team into a blue collar, young, hungry team they were going to have to draft and PLAY young guys. You should see the benefit of that process this year on the field as Dak, Zeke and those young DBs will be joined by more young, talented players.

Go point on McClay. He is the acting GM.

The Honey Badger 1-year, 7M contract would be a minimal investment if he was as good as fans believe; however, it's common knowledge that he has knee problems.

Yes, any year you can look back and see many good free agents signed after the 1st week of free agency.

No Eric Reid. Topic forbidden here.

Sonny?

When combining the next 3 years, the Eagles and Jags have the least cap space by a large margin. The Eagles are at 68M of space for the 3 years combined. All but 2 teams have over 100M. The Cowboys are at 210M and the supposedly cap strapped Seahawks are at 250M.

Hernandez is unlikely to be available at #50 and #19 is too early IMO. Trades are a possibility. The early 2nd/late 1st is often a good spot to draft.

Ridley at #19 would be a great pick.

On a year with extra draft picks, it makes sense to not overload the roster with low level free agents. The more young players retained, the higher the probability that some develop into starters.

Their #1 priority should be to get a Dez replacement for 2019. WRs usually need a year to acclimate to the NFL and it's a difficult and expensive position to fill in free agency. It would be great if a rookie and somebody else stepped up in the preseason to the point they could cut Dez this year but it seems doubtful. No need for an extension for Dez.

Crawford was #2 in splash plays over the past 3 seasons by Bob Sturms analysis. He did play more games than Irving which make the direct comparion irrelevant. You should post averages to compare. Crawford might be a bit over-paid but it would take a contract with guaranteed money to replace him when the plan is for him to bridge the gap to Taco and other young players.

Dak friendly starts with a better backup for Tyron.

I think it was @percyhoward that posted the the stats that you are referencing.

A better #1 WR would be Dak friendly. Dez is not really a #1 anymore. It was sad to see snaps where defenses single covered him with their #2 CB while Beasley drew true double (bracket) coverage and the #1 CB was covering TWill.

People laugh about the process but it is how most organizations improve and develop consistency. Some of the Six Sigma stuff can be more complicated than necessary but the basic premise is fairly simple with the concept of closed loop feedback. Jerry's method for about 20 years had no process. They didn't learn from their (or other team's) mistakes.

 

[Birch_Wood]

4. i would to find out how difficult it is to defend a title.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

In your comparison between Crawford and Irving over the past three years, Crawford played 10 more games.

Irving not being on the field is not a good thing. Reliability counts. A lot.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I just don't think that the front office views this as a contender type of season, and I think we've seen that with the way they've handled free agency.

DLaw and Irving kind of shoot holes in your theory don't they?

 

[Cowpolk]

I thought I thunk once but realized I was mistaken

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

What is funny is that the Eagles are using many of the tactics that Nightman and xwalker and the other cap guys have talked about repeatedly and paying it forward to sign additional talent. Dallas has used the same tactics and has it built into many contracts to make this possible but always gets dumped on for doing so. It truly is the way under the current cap rules and hopefully Dallas loosens up the purse strings in order to improve the roster.

 

[RamziD]

Next 3 years combined cap space:
Cowboys 210M
Eagles 63M

It's going to be really tight for the Eagles next season. Restructuring does not change the 63M number.

It was worth it because they won the Super Bowl and they'll be able to go for it again this season; however, they will have to dump players next year.

Yes, but that should have been our strategy, too. When you hit the lottery and get a franchise QB on a rookie contract (I know some will argue the franchise QB part), that's when you go all in and try to get impact players in FA to go for SB runs. You'll have to dump some players later, but they're going to be 4 years older and some might not be playing at a high level anymore. It's very hard to maintain a long term model of winning like NE. To do that, you have to be able to get players on cheap contracts and coach them to full potential...easier said than done, especially with our staff. They have the hubris to think they can be as good as NE, however.

 

[waldoputty]

Yes, but that should have been our strategy, too. When you hit the lottery and get a franchise QB on a rookie contract (I know some will argue the franchise QB part), that's when you go all in and try to get impact players in FA to go for SB runs. You'll have to dump some players later, but they're going to be 4 years older and some might not be playing at a high level anymore. It's very hard to maintain a long term model of winning like NE. To do that, you have to be able to get players on cheap contracts and coach them to full potential...easier said than done, especially with our staff. They have the hubris to think they can be as good as NE, however.

been pushing for this model for a long time

 

[Alexander]

DLaw and Irving kind of shoot holes in your theory don't they?

Retaining talent is not the same as trying to improve.

 

[Cowpolk]

Retaining talent is not the same as trying to improve.

And is not the same as getting worse

 

[CapnB]

Retaining talent is not the same as trying to improve.

Thats really an inaccurate statement. One of many I've seen you make now when talking about this team.

 

[Cowpolk]

Thats really an inaccurate statement. One of many I've seen you make now when talking about this team.

But but but he is never wrong and will let everyone know

 

[CapnB]

But but but he is never wrong and will let everyone know

Honestly, his last statement is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on any board, or social media site.

 

[xwalker]

Yes, but that should have been our strategy, too. When you hit the lottery and get a franchise QB on a rookie contract (I know some will argue the franchise QB part), that's when you go all in and try to get impact players in FA to go for SB runs. You'll have to dump some players later, but they're going to be 4 years older and some might not be playing at a high level anymore. It's very hard to maintain a long term model of winning like NE. To do that, you have to be able to get players on cheap contracts and coach them to full potential...easier said than done, especially with our staff. They have the hubris to think they can be as good as NE, however.

The Jags and Eagles cleared up cap space before starting their go for it approach.

The Cowboys lack the core to start a go for it approach. McClay and Stephen have to deal with issues that Jerry created like the Dez contract. They tried to avoid that contract but Jerry caved in because of emotional reasons. I wish they would go all in by cutting Dez and Witten, but that would be too much fan backlash.

I believe they will spend big at some point in the future but it's not the right time, IMO. Hopefully by next season they'll be ready to cut Dez/Witten and maybe Lee if he misses a big chunk of the season again.

College teams would have a hard time winning with the Cowboys WRs and with a TE that is slower than their OLinemen. If the WRs were NFL average or slightly above, then Witten would be OK, but as is the combination of a slow TE and terrible WR core is too much to overcome. They should consider drafting 2 WRs with their top 3 picks. They're going nowhere with the WRs they have now.