100 receptions for Witten in 2013

[Verdict]

In this case, I'm not sure how many catches Witten gets really matters. The running game should be better and the backs will catch a few balls too. The more effective an offense tends to be the fewer touches it takes to score, which can limit the number of touches for all of the offensive player ... not just Witten. I would like to see Hanna get more touches due to his explosiveness, but it doesn't have to come at the expense of Witten.

Then again, you can't leave the defense out of this analysis either. If the defense gets a lot more stops, that equates to more touches on the offense, even with no increase in offensive efficiency. There are so many factors involved that these stats aren't really all that informative, when viewed in a vacuum.

 

[bayeslife]

When I looked at NFL.com at the top 40 players in the NFL with the most receptions in 2012, his yards per reception was the lowest for any WR or TE on the list.

OH okay, I thought you were saying he was last on like a list of 10-15 players.

 

[jrumann59]

YPC is deceiving because if the OL is like last year than it will be the same. Shorter routes to offset bad OL play will bring down YPC since he is usually the hot read.

 

[Doomsday101]

No Witten is a expert at finding the holes and being there when and where he is needed. I'll take witten with 110 catches averaging 9 yds a catch versus most TE getting 60 catches and averaging 12.

I think the OL and offense in general dictated wittens ROUTES to be shorter I dont think he has slowed down so much he cant still catch 12 yard passes.

No Romo doesnt need to be throwing a 5 yard pass on third down really to anyone if they need 8 for a first. It should be in the air far enough to make that first down most throws. Its sweet when dez or someone breaks a long one on 3'rd down. But if you need 8 on first down you friggin throw a 8 yard or longer pass?? Witten can still catch those passes. You use witten to just move the chains not break 4 tackles on a 60 YAC run.

Tex

fully agree. Don't throw a 5 yard pass when you need 8 to get the 1st. Witten knows how to work the middle and finds openings if we are moving the chains then feed him. In the end I don't care if Witten gets 100 catches or 70 catches as long as we are winning football games

winning is the only stat that should matter.

 

[percyhoward]

Jason Witten was dead last of all the top WR/TE pass receivers in the NFL in yards per reception at 9.4

Witten only had 50.6% of his catches result in 1st down. For TEs with 50+ catches that ranked him 15th.

the stats? if they produce wins then that is the only stat that matters.

Yes, the most important stats are the ones that lead to wins.

The above stats (yards per reception, receptions-for-1st down percentage) don't correlate as highly with winning as other individual stats like passer rating or ANY/A, or stats that take game situation into account, like expected points added, or even better, win probability added.

WPA has an extremely high correlation with winning -- even higher than passer rating. EPA has only a slightly lower correlation than WPA. Witten ranked in the top 4 in both those stats.

Win Probability Added (TE), 2012
1. Witten
2. Gonzalez
3. Olsen
4. Gronkowski
5. Miller

Expected Points Added (TE), 2012
1. Gonzalez
2. Gronkowski
3. Olsen
4. Witten
5. Miller

IOW, the plays on which Witten was targeted positively affected the outcomes of games to a greater degree than did the plays on which any other TE was targeted during the regular season. A repeat of such a season in 2013 could only help his team.

 

[50cent]

Good if Dez has 140 & Miles has 115, but if he's in the top 2 in targets and/or receptions its been another wasted season!

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

Witten is a beast get the ball into dez , witten , Murray , Austin's hands as much as possible more the better .

 

[conner01]

i expect witten to be under 75 catches this year. i expect us to run a little more, for dez to be a bigger part of the pass game and austin to stay healthy. add in there will be another te on the field and harris doing a fine job as the 3rd wr, there should'nt be as many chances for witten this year. and thats a very good thing.
witten is always where he should be and catches the ball. when the oline plays bad and the qb is under pressure he is gonna find the closest guy to him and thats was witten last year. i expect a bit better play from the oline, mostly because they could'nt be much worse, and that should allow time for the guys down field to get open more

 

[ShiningStar]

On a side note.

Still remember how Skins fans would argue that Cooley was as good or better than Witten.

Funny Stuff.

never gets old. i believe one of their posters tried to claim there was only a micro difference between the two in talent.

Funny stuff indeed.

 

[Idgit]

never gets old. i believe one of their posters tried to claim there was only a micro difference between the two in talent.

Funny stuff indeed.

They also preferred Jason Campbell to Tony Romo. Sk*ns fans are the most adorably deluded fans in the NFL. Edging out PIT fans only because they've had less success as an organization overall.

 

[ShiningStar]

They also preferred Jason Campbell to Tony Romo. Sk*ns fans are the most adorably deluded fans in the NFL. Edging out PIT fans only because they've had less success as an organization overall.

lol, yes i remember those sad sad debates. They dont debate as so much wait for the next best thing, which for them RG3 was handed to them, so they will get milage out of that debate.

But i remember when they were hyping up their smurf wr corp. what a joke that turned out to be.

 

[NoLuv4Jerry]

beyond BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[joseephuss]

On a side note.

Still remember how Skins fans would argue that Cooley was as good or better than Witten.

Funny Stuff.

Yes, I remember those. Giants fans also claimed Jeremy Shockey was better than Witten. If you combine Cooley's career and Shockey's time with just the Giants they managed 800 receptions and 8939 yards. Witten has 806 receptions and 8948 yards.

 

[percyhoward]

If he's in the top 2 in targets and/or receptions its been another wasted season!

The two most successful seasons this team has had since the mid-90s were 2007 and 2009. Both years, Witten led the team in both targets and receptions.

Targets, 2007
Witten 141
Owens 141

Receptions, 2007
Witten 96
Owens 81

Targets, 2009
Witten 124
Austin 124

Receptions, 2009
Witten 94
Austin 81

 

[jobberone]

If they pass that much AGAIN and run so little again, the D is gonna be on the field a long time. This team needs to pass around 565-575 times and run about 450-460 times. That would be pretty balanced for a JG offense.

The ONLY way this team will be successful passing 600 times is IF they truly become an offense similar to NE's where the usually run close to 1100 plays a year. Last year, NE ran a staggering 1191 offensive plays. Yes, 1191 (compared to 1049 for Dallas). Folks, that's almost 75 plays a game. Those are damn near college numbers - Texas A&M ran 79 plays a game last year and Oregon ran almost 82.

DALLAS NEEDS TO RUN THE BALL EFFECTIVELY TO WIN!!!!!!!!

I agree 100% with the bolded part. Like I said we would be in the median of the top ten NFL teams if we complete 400 out of 600 attempts. So the balance of pass and run was actually pretty good although as I said I'd like to see the run attempts go up a tad not much.

If we see a little rise in the yards per catch and run then we'll be in great shape. If Tony can get in the 9-10 ypc and we can average 4.5 yd per run attempt then we will be in very good shape.

So the attempts we had in the run and pass were ok. We just didn't run the ball effectively, made too many mistakes on drives resulting in punts/poor field position, scored too many FGs in the RZ, turned the ball over too frequently, got too few turnovers ourselves, and didn't make enough big plays on either STs or offense. We also gave up 25 ppg resulting in 400 points given up.

Again, simple huh?

 

[Section446]

That would be a worst case scenario.