30-something RBs over 1200 yards

[THUMPER]

I was thinking again about the chances of LaDanian Tomlinson catching Emmitt Smith and I simply do not believe he can do it.

Currently, LT is 6595 rushing yards behind Emmitt. He would need to average 1319 for the next 5 seasons in order to catch Smith. That just isn't very likely. In fact, based on past history, it is virtually impossible.

Tomlinson will turn 30 in June and only a bare handful of RBs have gained the kind of yards he needs to average, and none for that long into their 30s.

A RB has gained 1200+ yards in a season 253 times in the history of the NFL. Only 10 times has a RB 31 or over gained more than 1200 yards in a season, and only 2, John Riggins & Walter Payton did it twice. Riggins gained 4530 yards in his final 5 seasons.

Here are the 10 times it was done:

Player - age - yards - year
1. Curtis Martin - 31 - 1697 yards - 2004
2. Tiki Barber - 31 - 1662 yards - 2006
3. Walter Payton - 31 - 1551 yards - 1985
4. John Riggins - 34 - 1347 yards - 1983
5. Walter Payton - 32 - 1333 yards - 1986
6. Tony Dorsett - 31 - 1307 yards - 1985
7. Ricky Watters - 31 - 1242 yards - 2000
8. John Riggins - 35 - 1239 yards - 1984
9. James Brooks - 31 - 1239 yards - 1989
10. Emmitt Smith - 31 - 1203 yards - 2000

Only Riggins (twice) and Payton (once) gained more than 1200 yards after the age of 31.

Tomlinson might have a bounce-back year this season and gain 1500 yards or so but it isn't likely that he could sustain that kind of production for an additional 4 years. He was nearly cut this year because his production has diminished some so it is probable that the Chargers will not give him the number of carries he has been used to.

I'll go out on a limb and state that Tomlinson will NOT catch Emmitt Smith in rushing yardage.

He might possibly catch him in rushing TDs as he needs 38 more to tie Emmitt but even that will be tough to do and I doubt he will be able to score that many TDs.

 

[bbgun]

We might have to hire Tonya Harding's goons if he gets within 500 yards of the record.

 

[twentytwo]

We might have to hire Tonya Harding's goons if he gets within 500 yards of the record.

I doubt we'd have to hire anyone. Someone here would do it free of charge.

 

[Hostile]

We might have to hire Tonya Harding's goons if he gets within 500 yards of the record.

I know Sean Eckhart's lawyer. We can get the #.

 

[bbgun]

I doubt we'd have to hire anyone. Someone here would do it free of charge.

On behalf of everyone here at the Zone, thank you for volunteering.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I doubt we'd have to hire anyone. Someone here would do it free of charge.

list of potential suspects:

dbair
zrinkill
Rampage (living in New York, he probably has mob connections)

 

[Big Dakota]

Emmitt rushed for 7112 yards after his 8th season, but Emmitt was one year younger than LT after his 8th season. If LT does it he will damn sure earn it!

 

[yentl911]

LT can not stay healthy. No way he is going to pass 22 IMO. No way.

I live in San Diego and watch him play quite a bit - there is no chance he get's five more season's with 1300+ yards. Even with all the touches he does get he will be lucky to crack the thousand mark for a couple more years.

Emmitt's record is safe.......for now.....I would keep my eyes on AP....he is a beast.

 

[Maxmadden]

AP is awesome and might have a good run but he won't be able to stay healthy. His style will wear him down. He has such a long ways to go, maybe we can talk about in another 5 years.

 

[Hailmary]

It isn't just age or health issues that will prevent Tomlison (or any other backs currently in the nfl) from reaching the record. With the trend of the two back system, I doubt that backs will get enough carries to come even close to the record in the near future.

 

[MONT17]

ppl wanna talk about Emmitt benefiting from his oline... take a look at Riggins career.


b4 this playoffs drought that wouldve prompted some type of Skins retort... I miss the Old Cowboys.

 

[THUMPER]

It isn't just age or health issues that will prevent Tomlison (or any other backs currently in the nfl) from reaching the record. With the trend of the two back system, I doubt that backs will get enough carries to come even close to the record in the near future.

That so true! Also, a team needs to be good enough to have a lead so that they aren't having to pass a lot to play catch up, and to be good like that for a number of years. The Chargers are very good right now so that's a possibility, but I don't think they will give LT 25+ carries a game anymore. They will split the rushes with Sproles and whoever so he may see around 20 a game at best.

It just isn't going to happen.

Adrian Peterson isn't going to be able to stay healthy long enough to do it although I do think he might break the single season yardage mark of 2105 in the next few years.

 

[THUMPER]

Emmitt rushed for 7112 yards after his 8th season, but Emmitt was one year younger than LT after his 8th season. If LT does it he will damn sure earn it!

It is interesting that both Emmitt and LT had down years in their 8th season. Emmitt bounced back from his '97 totals of 1074 yards & 4 TDs to produce 1332 yards & 13 TDs in '98. He had another in '99 with 1397 yards and 11 TDs, and tapered off a bit in 2000 with 1203 yards & 9 TDs at age 31.

In 2001 at age 32 he ran for 1021 yards and 3 TDs, that was his final 1000+ yard season although he had 2 more of over 900 yards.

Last season, at 29 years old, LT ran for 1110 yards and 11 TDs and his average per carry dropped to 3.8 yards. It was the first time that he had less than 300 carries in a season even though he played all 16 games. Emmitt was still the feature back for us for a number of years but the Chargers are wanting to get Sproles more carries and will probably pick up another RB in the draft and want to get him involved some as well, so I don't see LT getting anywhere near 300 carries a season.

He could bounce back and put up 1400+ yards the next 2 seasons but I doubt that he will get the carries needed to do that. Even if he did, it is highly unlikely that he would do much after that. History has shown that age 32 is the end of a RB's productive years as only 2 guys have had over 1200 yards at that age and only one after that age.

 

[THUMPER]

ppl wanna talk about Emmitt benefiting from his oline... take a look at Riggins career.


b4 this playoffs drought that wouldve prompted some type of Skins retort... I miss the Old Cowboys.

That's a very good point. Riggins was a journeyman RB for most of his career until the Commanders put together the "Hogs" in the late 70s & early 80s. He had only one 1000+ yard season in the 7 years prior to 1978. After that he had 4 in the next 7 years.

Interestingly, he only went to one Pro-Bowl in his 14 year career and was passed over in 1983 when he set the record of 24 rushing TDs although he was named 1st team All-Pro that year.

That was a great season for him, at age 34 he put up 1347 yards and 24 TDs but Dorsett beat him out for the final Pro-Bowl RB spot. Eric Dickerson, William Andrews, an Walter Payton were the other NFC PB RBs that year along with TD.

I don't know why the selectors chose Dorsett over Riggins that season but I'm happy!

 

[Apollo Creed]

LT will play several meaningless years to break the record. Granted Emmitt padded his stats in Arizona - but I can see Tomlinson playing well past his time. All he's talked about is the record since he got in the league.

 

[jazzcat22]

It isn't just age or health issues that will prevent Tomlison (or any other backs currently in the nfl) from reaching the record. With the trend of the two back system, I doubt that backs will get enough carries to come even close to the record in the near future.

Right, that was my thought also. 2 backs, and usually with age they start using a 2nd back to give the main back a breather, more often. If they don't use a 2 back system.

I think if we had a more capable / reliable RB behind Emmitt, he wouldn't have had as many yards. But he proved to be better even in his 30's than any backup, even to give him a rest.

 

[odog422]

LT will play several meaningless years to break the record. Granted Emmitt padded his stats in Arizona - but I can see Tomlinson playing well past his time. All he's talked about is the record since he got in the league.

Even after his production has tapered off after the next couple years, I don't see anyone signing him. The two things in Emmit's behalf were the previous season he became the all-time rushing leader (ticket draw for Arizona, not to mention the heavy Dalls popularity in AZ), and two, he'd been relatively healthy his whole career. So injury concerns weren't part of the evaluation equation.

The rumble already in NFL circles is LT can't stay healthy. That alone IMO makes it highly unlikely he'll get significant playing time anywhere after his days in SD are done.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

IMO, LT is just about done and won't even come close to the record.

What could really threaten the record is the 18-game season, if we go to it. That means more games before players get old.

But if the owners and Goodell continue the trend towards making this the National Flag Football League for receivers and QBs, teams won't even care about running the ball.

 

[Billy Bullocks]

LT has missed way more games at this point in his career than Emmitt did.

I highly doubt he gets to the mark. As you pointed out, he's got to get 1,300 a season to make it for 5 years. I doubt that happens.

I could see him featuring less for SD, and adding some years to his career with the way Sproles played in the playoffs. If he can be a guy who gets less carries and drifts around 900-1000 yd a season back, I could feasiby see him getting closer. But no way with the way he has been worked up to this point.

One of Emmitt's great skills was his ability to avoid taking the big hits. I think with the speed and aggressiveness of todays NFL, LT wont get there.