40 Years of Bad Teams with Top 10 QB

[percyhoward]

While there have been some subtle changes, since 2011, Dallas has been a team with 1) a top 10 QB (or top 10 pass offense), 2) a bottom 10 pass defense, that 3) does not run the ball very often, and 4) is not very successful running the ball in the red zone. (I emphasize red zone running because how well a team runs the ball outside the red zone has virtually no correlation to wins. Touchdown percentage has a strong correlation. Consequently, rushing TD is a much more accurate measurement of a running game than yards per carry.) I went back to 1970 looking for teams with similar make ups to the Cowboys to see what kind of W-L records I would find.

The specific parameters were
for the QB:
Top 10 in passer rating and touchdowns

for the defense:
Bottom 10 in pass rating

for running game:
rush TD below league average
Bottom 10 in rushing attempts

The first ranking is defensive pass rating, followed by rushing attempts and rushing TD, then the QB's rank in pass rating that season.

1973 Phi def 25th, rush (att 24th, TD 20th) Gabriel 5th 5-8-1
1980 NO def 27th, rush (att 28th, TD 25th) A. Manning 8th 1-15
1982 SF def 22nd, rush (att 27th, TD 17th) Montana 5th 3-6
1983 GB def 21st, rush (att 23rd, TD 17th) Dickey 8th 8-8
1986 Buf def 23rd, rush (att 25th, TD 23rd) Kelly 8th 4-12
1986 Mia def 26th, rush (att 31st, TD 23rd) Marino 2nd 8-8
1988 Mia def 23rd, rush (att 28th, TD 19th) Marino 10th 6-10
1991 Mia def 24th, rush (att 25th, TD 22nd) Marino 7th 8-8
1993 Atl def 28th, rush (att 26th, TD 26th) Hebert 10th 6-10
1994 Atl def 21st, rush (att 28th, TD 22nd) George 9th 7-9
1994 NO def 26th, rush (att 27th, TD 17th) Everett 5th 7-9
1996 Bal def 28th, rush (att 24th, TD 16th) Testaverde 5th 4-12
2004 Min def 28th, rush (att 28th, TD 29th) Culpepper 2nd 8-8
2011 Dal def 25th, rush (att 24th, TD 30th) Romo 4th 8-8
2012 NO def 28th, rush (att 29th, TD 21st) Brees 8th 7-9
2012 Dal def 29th, rush (att 31st, TD 27th) Romo 10th 8-8
2013 Dal def 26th, rush (att 31st, TD 18th), Romo 8th 8-8

A lot of bad defenses and unproductive running games there, and no winning records to be found.

In 2012, the Cowboys became the first team with these kinds of numbers in consecutive seasons. In 2013, they became the first team with these kinds of numbers three years in a row.

Marino and Romo are the only QB to have played on this kind of team more than once.

 

[Primetime42]

Nice research.

 

[Idgit]

Great stuff. And it puts Garrett's blame right where it belongs.

 

[CCBoy]

Man, I still have to side with Garrett as to cause. It isn't him...but transitioning through an offensive line, defensive backfield, and intense injuries to a defensive line. Work that through Cap extremes, and one has to coach up a whole cast of characters signing in at the front desk of a hotel lobby.

Statistics just don't have a chance there...even adequate talent, skirts the bottom.

 

[Idgit]

Man, I still have to side with Garrett as to cause. It isn't him...but transitioning through an offensive line, defensive backfield, and intense injuries to a defensive line. Work that through Cap extremes, and one has to coach up a whole cast of characters signing in at the front desk of a hotel lobby.

Statistics just don't have a chance there...even adequate talent, skirts the bottom.

I sort of agree, but, really, Garrett's been here long enough to be very much responsible for our defensive performances. Some of the failure on that side of the ball was injuries the last two years, but not all of it. He's screwed that up, one way or another, and it's probably cost him two NFCE crowns.

 

[BigStar]

I never considered Romo in any way close to Marino in his game with their different styles contrasting so much. Romo relies on improvisation with a good arm and good accuracy. Marino was a stationary QB with a laser. At the end of Marino's career (Jimmy) MIA desperately tried to find a running game to supplement the passing game but never seemed able to incorporate it with any success. I understand the original topic relates to the poor D/rushing TDs but that is discouraging (lack of post season success). It has been an intentional emphasis on the part of JG to be pass heavy more so than catering to Romo's strengths and makes you wonder about possible post seasons if the team incorporated the running game more so. Romo was sharp last season but also didn't take many chances. A conservative pass heavy offense is rare, outside of NE.

 

[CCBoy]

I sort of agree, but, really, Garrett's been here long enough to be very much responsible for our defensive performances. Some of the failure on that side of the ball was injuries the last two years, but not all of it. He's screwed that up, one way or another, and it's probably cost him two NFCE crowns.

And even here, there is another additional dimension in progress. That of stupid penalties and turning the ball over...discipline of respective units. The defense got more turn-overs and penalties declined on the offensive side as well...

 

[DallasEast]

In my opinion, this thread will not see pages approaching 60. However, I think it will see 20 - 25 pages easy.

By the way, excellent OP. I remember those earlier Saints teams. Sad to see where they ranked but not unexpected.

 

[percyhoward]

Since 1970, 440 QB have ranked in the top 10. 330 times, their defense has ranked higher than 20th. (75%) If your QB ranks in the top 10, there's a 75% chance your pass defense will rank better than 20th.

Since 1970, 449 pass defenses have ranked 20th or lower. 110 times that team had a top 10 QB. (25%) If your pass defense ranks 20th or lower, there is only a 25% chance you'll have a top 10 QB.

 

[Idgit]

Since 1970, 440 QB have ranked in the top 10. 330 times, their defense has ranked higher than 20th. (75%) If your QB ranks in the top 10, there's a 75% chance your pass defense will rank better than 20th.

Since 1970, 449 pass defenses have ranked 20th or lower. 110 times that team had a top 10 QB. (25%) If your pass defense ranks 20th or lower, there is only a 25% chance you'll have a top 10 QB.

The hurdle for fielding a top-75% defense in the NFL--when you're able to commit resources and personnel to doing so--really ought not to be very high. Once you have the QB in place, you'd think most teams would be able to address a defense and get it into one of the top three quartiles. I'm a huge Garrett fan, but it's really pretty damning that we haven't had more success in that regard the last three seasons. And that we're here in another off season where we weren't able to do as much in either the draft or FA as I'd have liked.

 

[gimmesix]

Marino and Romo are the only QB to have played on this kind of team more than once.

They definitely deserve the most sympathy.

 

[gimmesix]

The hurdle for fielding a top-75% defense in the NFL--when you're able to commit resources and personnel to doing so--really ought not to be very high. Once you have the QB in place, you'd think most teams would be able to address a defense and get it into one of the top three quartiles. I'm a huge Garrett fan, but it's really pretty damning that we haven't had more success in that regard the last three seasons. And that we're here in another off season where we weren't able to do as much in either the draft or FA as I'd have liked.

I will say that I don't think he deserves complete blame for the wheels falling off the past two years. Dallas' new commitment to younger players will hopefully help them avoid the injuries that contributed to their abysmal performances on defense.

The overly cheery view of the defensive line last year by Garrett and the ownership certainly came back to bite them. Quite frankly, I was with them except for believing we needed a FA backup to Ware. Then, they started dropping like flies.

 

[BIGDen]

Great post. Technocally Romo was 8-7 last year so he actually had a winning record despite that horrific defense.

 

[BIGDen]

Great post. Technocally Romo was 8-7 last year so he actually had a winning record despite that horrific defense.

"Technically"

 

[percyhoward]

The hurdle for fielding a top-75% defense in the NFL--when you're able to commit resources and personnel to doing so--really ought not to be very high. Once you have the QB in place, you'd think most teams would be able to address a defense and get it into one of the top three quartiles. I'm a huge Garrett fan, but it's really pretty damning that we haven't had more success in that regard the last three seasons. And that we're here in another off season where we weren't able to do as much in either the draft or FA as I'd have liked.

Defensively, injuries have had an obvious effect. Offensively, we've always needed to run the ball better, and now with the improved OL it's clear we also need to run it more often as well.

I think that post you quoted confirms that without Romo the defense would have been worse, and also that even an average defense makes Romo better.

 

[ShiningStar]

Great stuff. And it puts Garrett's blame right where it belongs.

and that would be?

 

[Idgit]

and that would be?

Not addressing the awful defense properly after 4 off seasons.

 

[ShiningStar]

Not addressing the awful defense properly after 4 off seasons.

okay, i was going to do half of that , ill give him injuries, and losing a few games he should have won. Some good stuff, some bad stuff.

 

[Risen Star]

Now batting clean up, Percy Howard....

 

[Risen Star]

The hurdle for fielding a top-75% defense in the NFL--when you're able to commit resources and personnel to doing so--really ought not to be very high. Once you have the QB in place, you'd think most teams would be able to address a defense and get it into one of the top three quartiles. I'm a huge Garrett fan, but it's really pretty damning that we haven't had more success in that regard the last three seasons. And that we're here in another off season where we weren't able to do as much in either the draft or FA as I'd have liked.

The defense took a hit with the scheme change and I don't for a second believe that was the brainchild of Jason Garrett.

It sounds like you have a problem with the personnel decisions on this team and have no clue who is responsible for it.