4th and 6, you gotta go for the 1st

[JJHLH1]

You never give the GOAT the ball back with that much time left.

Brady had late game-winning drives in all 6 of his Super Bowl wins with the Patriots. It’s what he does.

 

[kevm3]

Yea we should have went for it. I dont' know how many time coaches need to see Brady win the game when he has a minute and some change left

 

[coogrfan]

They didn’t play for a FG just ended up having to take a FG. At that point in the game at that field position the only way you’re going for it is if you’re a 11 year old playing Madden

Uh-huh.

Sounds like you don't watch much AFC football. I saw Brady do this to Houston twice in his last couple of years in NE. Both times the Texans settled for fgs late that put them up by less than a td, and both times Brady took his team right down the field for the win. When we opted to kick I knew we were cooked.

 

[movaughn88]

OP is 100% right. We want to trust our defense now instead of Coop and CD? Roll them dice.

Edit: If its Daniel Jones, Hurts, or Fitz - sure kick the 3

 

[madcow74]

How the F do you not take the lead in that situation with that much time left....i dont care who is qb on the other side and if our kicker is shady as heck

 

[JJHLH1]

It’s the same mistake Green Bay made last year in the NFC Championship game. Settling for a FG late.

They gave the ball back to Brady and he ran out the clock.

It would have been a bold decision to go for it in either case, but giving the GOAT the ball back at the end of the game is almost never a good idea.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

I’m guessing the “analytical” thing to do there is go for it. Teams needing a FG to win with over a minute left win an insanely high percentage of games and that’s without taking into consideration you’re giving the ball back to the GOAT and SB champs. These are the kinds of calls I expected MM to make when talking about using analytics and not, for example, attempting a 60 yard FG and giving the ball back to Brady with 15 seconds on the clock at the 50 if you miss.

It was frustrating to me to settle for the FG knowing that we were unlikely to keep them from scoring a FG to win because of how much time they had left.

the odds of making 4th and 6 I’m going to guess are about even with, or better than, stopping Brady from getting a game winning FG with 1:30 left on the clock. That’s the whole point of freaking analytics.

 

[DB_Cooper]

Early in the season and you aren’t expected to win. I’d like the moxy of challenging your players to convert the 4th and 6. If you make it it builds confidence you can ride the rest of the way. If not oh well. We weren’t expected to win anyway. The benefits out weighed the costs there in my opinion. We need to create a mental toughness on our team. It takes risks to do that sometimes.

 

[Tabascocat]

You take the lead 100% of the time in under two minutes. The problem was leaving them that much time….

 

[CarolinaFathead]

You take the lead 100% of the time in under two minutes. The problem was leaving them that much time….

No, no, no…

Let’s say there is a 37 % chance (just guessing here) of making 4th and 6.

then let’s say, there’s a 35% chance (just guessing here but I know that the odds greatly favor the offense in this scenario) of stopping Brady getting a game winning FG.

then the right thing to do there mathematically is attempt the 4th and 6. This is the whole point of analytics and using them strategically.

 

[Proof]

The big mistake was on the first drive of the 3rd quarter, kicking the field goal on 4th-and-goal at the 3. Terrible decision.

that "block" attempt was attrocious. Zeke shoulda walked in easily

 

[Ken]

Sorry. We said it at the time (I say "we" because so many of us said it). 4th and 6th, 1:42 left, you HAVE to try for the first down instead of kicking a FG. Some of you will counter with, "well, that's what the defense is paid to do, make a stop late in the game, with a lead." Sure. That works against Tom Brady as much as it did against Aaron Rodgers a few years back in the playoffs.

A first down there should have put the Cowboys in better FG range while bleeding the clock. Sometimes you've gotta make that unconventional call, especially when going up against the GOAT. Had they not made the first down? Not mad...how could we be? We knew Brady would bring them back anyway.

That would have been the dumbest move i have ever seen.

Defense needs to hold.

 

[Proof]

Probably. So what? Anybody who follows the NFL knows that giving Brady the ball with that much time left needing only a fg to win is a losing proposition.

think the infographic / stat they provided in that situation said that he was 8-18. so....

 

[Proof]

Early in the season and you aren’t expected to win. I’d like the moxy of challenging your players to convert the 4th and 6. If you make it it builds confidence you can ride the rest of the way. If not oh well. We weren’t expected to win anyway. The benefits out weighed the costs there in my opinion. We need to create a mental toughness on our team. It takes risks to do that sometimes.

this is really the only argument i can support. even still i think kicking it was the right decision

 

[CarolinaFathead]

That would have been the dumbest move i have ever seen.

Defense needs to hold.

Why does the defense “need to hold” versus the “offense making a play”?

what matters is the ODDS of which scenario is most favorable to winning. If the odds are better going for 4th and 6 versus kicking a FG and giving the ball back to Brady with 1:30 on the clock, then you GO FOR IT.

this is simple math.

 

[loublue22]

going for it is going directly for the win, if you get it, you can run the clock down and kick a much closer FG to win, and you leave the option for a TD on the table. kicking it is a "don't fire me" move. think about it like this, if you had the choice, would take the three points or the 1st down?

 

[Ken]

Why does the defense “need to hold” versus the “offense making a play”?

what matters is the ODDS of which scenario is most favorable to winning. If the odds are better going for 4th and 6 versus kicking a FG and giving the ball back to Brady with 1:30 on the clock, then you GO FOR IT.

this is simple math.

There are so many things tht can go wrong on a 4th and 6 against a championship defense. You take the lead and make them beat you...which they did

Refs make the right call on that OPI and this is a moot point.

 

[BrassCowboy]

The goal is to win the game, not to put off losing as long as possible.

Odd way of saying nothing

 

[BrassCowboy]

After e we made the FG we lost the game. There was close to 0% chance we stop Brady with a minute and a half left. He’s been winning games like that for 20 years against defenses far superior to ours.

Not a person in the nation would agree

 

[CarolinaFathead]

There are so many things tht can go wrong on a 4th and 6 against a championship defense. You take the lead and make them beat you...which they did

Refs make the right call on that OPI and this is a moot point.

And there so many things that can go wrong giving a team the ball back with a 1:30 and only needing a FG to win. What’s your point?

It’s about the odds of what is most likely to succeed. The NFL has been consistently keeping analytics since the early 90’s. I’d bet that the odds are even, or better, going for it on 4th and 6 than giving the ball back to a team needing a FG to win and 1:30 on the clock. Teams needing only a FG to win and over a minute to get it win a HUGE percentage of games.

Making decisions like this are the reason for using analytics in the first place. Many times in football gut feeling hesitancy and cautious intuition don’t line up with the actual odds and coaches make the wrong decision because of it. I’m guessing this was one of those times.