4th and 6, you gotta go for the 1st

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by CowboyinMD, Sep 9, 2021.

  1. Floatyworm

    Floatyworm The Labeled One

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    Funny....I was just telling a buddy...I think I would have went for it as well.....I think we still had all 3 of our timeouts....and our kicker had already botched 2 kicks... But then again...taking the lead is the smart play 99 out of a 100 times.

    If McCarthy had gone for it....I could have seen the logic....but boy...then your planting the seed of doubt in your kickers head for the season...and that wouldn't have been good either.
     
  2. StarBoyz83

    StarBoyz83 Well-Known Member

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    Either way if you go for it and lose or kick the fg and lose you're going to get torched on your decision!!! That's an extremely hard decision in the point of a game but I would've went for it also. But not mad they kicked the fg at all.
     
  3. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    Giving a team, let alone Brady, four downs to get 10 yards and drive 40-50 yards for a FG in 1:30 is analogous to leaving a good shooter wide open at the three point line in basketball. At that point you’re hoping they just miss.
     
  4. Floatyworm

    Floatyworm The Labeled One

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    Yup....Like I posted in the game thread....FGs get you beat....how many more times did you think you were gonna get down inside the 5??? You had to get 6 there.

    Feels like we learned nothing from last year...and are starting that stupid process all over again. :banghead:
     
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  5. SoupcanSam

    SoupcanSam Well-Known Member

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    You guys saying wrong are insane. There is a minute and change left on the clock for brady, and you have to kick a long FG with a kicker who isnt having his best game.

    What are the odds brady chokes it with a minute and change left?

    You gotta go for that considering the situation and more than likely hindsight outcome. This isnt our first rodeo here.
     
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  6. lsg13

    lsg13 Active Member

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    I would seriously doubt that going for it from 4th and 6 has a higher chance of success than stopping a team driving for a FG with a minute and a half or less and basically with not timeouts.
    All you can really do is take the 3 and hope that one of the other TB players blows it like giving up another turnover... but either way you don't have much of a chance to win... after the hold call we were pretty much toast.
     
  7. T-RO

    T-RO Well-Known Member

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    True and it just shows how stupid conventional logic w/coaching still is:

    -You've gotta say 40% chance Z misses that FG
    -And 70% chance even if Z makes it, Brady responds

    Odds are way stacked against you by choosing FG there.

    I'm expecting way too much math from this forum to make the conclusion, so I'll spell it out: You want to win in that situation... you go for it.
     
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  8. T-RO

    T-RO Well-Known Member

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    90 seconds is an eternity in the NFL when you only need a FG.
     
  9. lsg13

    lsg13 Active Member

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    I would have been ok either way but in reality the overwhelming choice by NFL coaches would be to take the FG, I can't remember a game where a coach went for it on 4th and long when they could have taken a lead with a FG.
     
  10. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    I don’t remember off the top of my head the exact percentage ( it was over 50% if I’m remembering right) that teams with over a minute and needing a FG to win actually win the game but it was insanely high and that only makes sense.

    Four downs to get 10 yards..

    Only needing to get 40-50 yards to kick a FG..

    These scenarios are analogous to leaving a good shooter wide open at the three point line and you’re only up two. You’re just hoping they miss.
     
  11. BrassCowboy

    BrassCowboy RW Hitman

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    If we would of missed out, would there have been even 1 person on this entire planet that would of been ok with us missing and losing right there. This whole forum would be calling for McCarthy's job right there.
    It is easy to play Monday morning qb now but if you were gonna do that, at least look at multiple other dumb things that were real reason Brady had time on the clock.
    Exactly.
    Losing sucks, I get it, but you have to play the odds. I am good with this game. They played way better than I expected.
     
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  12. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    And what if the odds were better for going for it on 4th and 6 versus giving Tom Brady the ball back with 1:30 and four downs to get 10 yards and only 40-50 overall?

    You’re assuming the odds were less on getting 4th and 6 and I’m telling you that’s not necessarily the case.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2021
  13. Kingofholland

    Kingofholland Well-Known Member

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    Depends how you feel about your defense. But still feel it was the right call.
     
  14. lsg13

    lsg13 Active Member

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    hindsight is always 20/20, just bad clock management down the stretch.
     
  15. Verdict

    Verdict Well-Known Member

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    I thought it was the right call. If TB doesn’t get away with a push off we win the game.

    The refs officiated a pretty solid game overall. They missed an intentional grounding on Brady and the push off, but overall it was a decently officiated game.
     
  16. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    Bad clock management?

    We had to pass because we hadn’t established a prayer of a run game. The clock does what the clock does when you’re a passing offense and struggling to contain a ferocious pass rush.
     
  17. SoupcanSam

    SoupcanSam Well-Known Member

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    We are talking about a bonehead coach who choose to kick a FG with a banged up kicker at damn near mid field instead of punting it. The choice couldnt have been that overwhelming.
     
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  18. Floatyworm

    Floatyworm The Labeled One

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    Yet...weird how Tampa Bay didn't commit a single penalty in that final drive....Just weird. :popcorn:
     
  19. lsg13

    lsg13 Active Member

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    the other question though is what are the odds for making a 4th and 6, those are the two odds you have to compare.
     
  20. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    And the refs are part of the game. Bad calls are no different than dropped passes or fumbles. Expecting a ref to call a perfect game is absurd, just like expecting a player to never make a mistake. It’s another reason why you don’t give the ball back to a team in that scenario when you could have ran one play designed to get six or more yards and gotten a first down to run more time off the clock.
     

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