4th and 6, you gotta go for the 1st

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by CowboyinMD, Sep 9, 2021.

  1. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. That’s my point. It’s not an absolute that you always kick the FG there. You have to look at the math.
     
  2. lqmac1

    lqmac1 Well-Known Member

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    No you don’t. You kick the FG 100% of the time ESPECIALLY when it gives you the lead w less than 1:30 left in an away game.
     
  3. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    You’re completely relying on cautious intuition with no regard whatsoever as to what the mathematical odds actually are.
     
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  4. lqmac1

    lqmac1 Well-Known Member

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    I can see where that would be the case if it was later in the year and we were perhaps fighting for the division or a playoff spot, but for it being the first game of the year, it’s a bit on the aggressive side. I don’t think it’s a horrible idea, but I just think it’s a bit too aggressive
     
  5. lsg13

    lsg13 Active Member

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    yes, bad clock management, when you face a "ferocious pass rush" throw a screen and stay in bounds... just because we hadn't established a run game doesn't me we don't have one to use in critical times of a game.
     
  6. lsg13

    lsg13 Active Member

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    yep but like I said earlier, I can't remember a coach that has gone for it on 4th and long when they could take the lead with a FG... it might be wrong analytically but it's just the reality of coaching.
     
  7. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    Dak did well to get the team in FG range. I’m not going to nitpick because they didn’t at the same time milk the clock perfectly. Teams lose all the time after giving the opposing team the ball back with plenty of time on the clock to drive for a FG. if we wanted to manage the clock better, then we should have went for it on 4th and 6.
     
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  8. lsg13

    lsg13 Active Member

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    Well I'm out of here, I'm sure if things hold true to the last 30 years we will have plenty of things to complain about this season, it's been a good game one vent.
     
  9. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    I don’t disagree. I think coaches make the wrong choices all the time because they are intuitively cautious.

    That’s the thing though…

    MM was supposed to be bringing analytical football to Dallas. He did last year when we beat ATL. this decision didn’t seem to flow with that mindset.
     
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  10. Austin 3-16

    Austin 3-16 Active Member

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    In that situation, you are allowed in the NFL to play "not to lose" and kick the field goal. The criticism is reserved for folks who "play to win" in that situation and come up short.
     
  11. BotchedLobotomy

    BotchedLobotomy Wide Right

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    Ok, so if MM decides not to kick it for the lead and we don’t get the first, you would have been the first in line calling for MM to be fired.

    Arm chair coaching is the easiest job in the world.
     
  12. BrassCowboy

    BrassCowboy RW Hitman

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    Well then it is just a matter of opinion in that case, so either way I am not at all upset with the result considering none of us really thought we would match up anywhere near as close as we did.
    Future looks good and now they have some game footage to work off of
     
  13. CarolinaFathead

    CarolinaFathead Well-Known Member

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    You don’t know that and your reply doesn’t address the actual argument that the smart thing to do in ANY situation is to make the decision that gives you the BEST odds to win. If someone understands the odds and knows their coach made the decision that gave the team the best odds to win, then it’s highly irrational for you to conclude they would have then complained had they not converted on 4th and 6.

    A coach should ALWAYS make the decision that gives his team the highest chance to win. If the odds are better for going for it on 4th and 6 versus giving the ball back to a team that only needs a FG to win and has a 1:30 to get it, then you GO FOR IT.

    it’s just straight math. If you are playing chess and you have several moves you can make, ONE of them gives you the best chance to win. THAT’S the move you should make. It’s very likely that going for it on 4th and 6 had better odds relative to us winning than giving the ball back to Brady for what was essentially a lay up and hoping he misses it.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2021
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  14. Cowboysheelsreds053

    Cowboysheelsreds053 Well-Known Member

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    Agree, who ever had the ball last wins.
     
  15. CowboyinMD

    CowboyinMD Well-Known Member

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    Since I was the OP I can admit this thread was in part a post-game rant. But I'll add that what was needed in a game like that, on the road, was a Jimmy Johnson like gutsy call at some point along the way. Like he did on the road vs. the 11-0 Football Team at RFK in 1991. Onside kicks, fake punts -- give me ONE play that doesn't follow analytics. Yes, we got our share of turnovers, and as it turns out, we needed every one of them and then some.

    I'll amend my 4th and 6 comment and counter with this: what do you think about an onside kick after taking a 29-28 lead? I jest a little here, but when the goal is to keep TB from getting the ball with nearly 2 minutes left at all costs, I have to admit I thought about that too.

    It was a painful death that we all saw coming a mile away. That's why I'm saying when your D has been torched *most* of the night, and your giving the GOAT one last chance for a GW FG with plenty of time left, you have to think about doing something unconventional.

    Even in that drive, did we not hear CC say, "Dallas almost has to go for the TD here, right Al?".

    Yes... he's right.
     
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  16. DandyDon52

    DandyDon52 Well-Known Member

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    most HC's are gonna take the FG, but I have to agree, that the wisest decision there would have been to go for the first down, chew up more clock,
    and really you might kick a fg anyway , as long as you dont leave but 5 sec or less on the clock.

    Taking the fg means you think your defense can keep brady from getting in fg range, and as we saw he didnt need all the time he had, he threw ball away
    3 times.
    So ultimately it was wrong to kick the fg. but it is easier to see in hindsight.
     
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  17. TheHerd

    TheHerd Well-Known Member

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    I'd rather win than be right.
     
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  18. willia451

    willia451 Well-Known Member

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    If you don't kick that FG then you're saying you have zero confidence your D can get the stop you need to win.

    It's a long season. Sure you want to make that kind of statement to your players in week 1?
     
  19. TheHerd

    TheHerd Well-Known Member

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    99/100? In today's NFL? You're saying that starting on the 25 with 1:24 and a timeout had is of 1/100?

    Even an average QB in the NFL in 2021 is at least 50/50 against as average defense. And Brady is probably 80%. And against this defense, Brady is maybe 95.
    I know it would have seemed like a massive risk, but we should have gone for it. I said as much before the kick, I said it after the kick, I said it before the Bucs final drive started.
    Prolonging the loss as long as possible isn't the objective.
     
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  20. DandyDon52

    DandyDon52 Well-Known Member

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    well you cant worry about hurt feelings lol.
    also our fg kicker missed 2 short ones in first half, so it wasnt guaranteed.
    I think only a team with a really good defense, that has played good in THAT GAME should
    you kick the fg.
    and dallas doesnt have that yet.
     
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