A Look at the Current Depth Chart

[Wulfman]

I could be wrong, b/c I’m not really a stats guy, but I believe I recall that Spencer was average when compared to other #2 OLBs, but when you compare Spears/Hatcher/Coleman to other DEs, that where you see a significant drop off.

It’s tough to tell who will be elite at DE , but I think Cox has a tremendous upside and I like the fact that he can be moved around and got significant pressure up the middle in College.

The question is, are you comparing Spears/Hatcher/Coleman to other DEs in a 3-4 alignment or to DEs in a 4-3 alignment. If you're not comparing apples to apples, the numbers are going to be VERY skewed because DE in the 4-3 IS supposed to be their dominant pass rusher. Jason Pierre-Paul, Dwight Freeney, and even Mario Williams (before Wade got there last year) were pass rushing DEs in a 4-3 line-up, and they're supposed to have those stats. DEs in a 3-4 are not.

If you really want to compare stats in terms of sacks, pressures, etc. for the DEs, look at other 3-4 teams only, like Pittsburgh, Houston, New England, San Fran, et al. And even then, you have to be careful, as some of those teams, like New England, play as much 4-3 as they do 3-4. Rob Ryan will do that as well, but not nearly as much as some...at least not so far.

Because of this, the best comparisons to make are with teams that play predominantly the 3-4. Just looking at sack totals, here's how they stacked up, counting only DEs and NTs:

Green Bay's D-line: 6 sacks
Pittsburgh's D-line: 6.5 sacks
Dallas' D-line: 10.5 sacks
SF's D-line: 13 sacks
NY Jets D-line: 13.5 sacks
Baltimore's D-line: 15.5 sacks
Houston's D-line: 16.5 sacks

As you can see, Dallas is around the middle of the pack. Would it be nice to have as many as Houston or Baltimore? Of course...as long as you're not taking sacks away from D-Ware in the process.

My thinking it that an improved pass rush opposite D-Ware on the outside not only leads to more sacks for that person, but it forces the QB to step up into the pocket even when there's not room to do so, and that leads to more sacks for the D-linemen as well.

.

 

[Wulfman]

Spencer was tied for 12th/28 among 3-4 OLB's with 6 sacks.

I don't have an official source for pressures, but profootballfocus had him ranked 9th/28 in QB pressures with 35.

That's pretty good for the OLB not named Ware. I don't see a lot of guys to improve the position in the draft.

And what's sad about that is that he missed at least that many by a step or two, looking at the game film. And nearly every one he didn't get resulted in a first down to keep a drive going or a big play.

From a pure pass-rushing stance, I think either Ingram or Upshaw would be better certainly, and Mercilus has a chance to be better as well, based on the tape I've seen. After that, it's more of a crap shoot, which is why if they want to improve the position this year, they're almost going to have to use a first-rounder to do it.

 

[jterrell]

Weakest link as listed was OC but I do not believe that is the current depth chart at the position in coaches minds.

Starters:

WR: Dez, Miles, (3rd WR??) --- 7. No idea who 3rd WR is honestly but 1 and 2 both have pro bowl abilities.
TE: Witten, (Phillips) --- 8. Witten has to stop getting penalties but play hasn't tailed off enough to be a concern. Phillips is a solid 2nd option. Need depth badly.
OL: Smith, Livings, Nagy, Bern, Free --- 7. Top 7 with Arkin and Parnell isn't weak but also isn't dominate unless Free has a 2010 type season.
FB: (Vickers) --- 9 FB is a situational position but Vickers is strong. Need depth.
RB: Murray, (Felix) --- 8. Grade would be higher with a pile mover back up and better healthy history. If both guys play 16 games this is a 9. But need depth.
QB: Romo --- 8.5 Franchise player period. Not Rodgers or Brady but in that second group with includes Eli and Raperberger. Great depth.

DE/OLB: Ware, Spencer --- 9, Ware is an 11... you do the math. No depth to count on.
DE/DT: Hatcher, Spears, (Lissemore) --- 6 (assume Coleman is gone or situational run stuffer) Depth not much of a drop off but starters are spare so this isn't an endorsement. As much 4-3 as we run an interior DL should get more sacks!
NT: Ratliff --- 7. Solid player but undersized and body is showing effects of pounding. Quickness is first attribute you lose as you age.
ILB: Lee, Connor, (Carter) --- 8. Very solid group ... best we have had in years. Depth with Lemon isn't bad either now.
CB: Carr, Jenkins, (Scandrick) --- 8. Very solid. IF Jenkins is healthy enough to go.
S: Sensabaugh, Pool --- 7.5 Decent and passable. Need rush help in coverage and LB help in run stopping.




*players in () start based upon set.


So end of the day I'd favor a 4-3/3-4 DE/Quick DT as highest prio.
OL, WR, NT all equal after that.
Caveat of needing pass rusher if we don't sign Spencer long-term to huge money.

If you looked at the draft rankings I'd probably love to go:
1. DE (Cox or Ingram)
2. OL (Ben Jones, Peter Konz, Kevin Zeitler. a falling OT)
3. CB (Dwight Bentley, Boykin)
4. Slot WR/KR (Jarius Wright,Chris Rainey)
5. DT/NT (Brett Roy, Fangupo, Wolfe)
6. TE/FB: (Evan Rodriguez, Cory Harkey, Brad Smelley, Drake Dunsmore)
7. short yardage RB: (Darrell Scott, Bryce Brown)

If you gave me.
Cox
Ben Jones
Dwight Bentley
Jarius Wright
Brett Roy
Evan Rodr
Darrell Scott
I'd now love my depth chart!

Cox starts at 3-4 DE and 4-3 DT.
Jones is day 1 starting OC; moving Bern to RG. Nagy is top int OL backup. Arkin is battling for final int spot.
Bentley becomes 4th CB with eyes on nickel job year 2.
Jairius is slot WR and returner.
Roy is a NT/DT depth guy with starting potential down the road. See slightly more athletic version of Lissemore.
Evan is back up FB and 3rd TE. True H-Back type with good hands.
Scott is new 3rd RB and short yardage back. Would have to be good on special teams to make the club but very talented player.

 

[fortdick]

Can we win with Spencer at OLB and Lissimore and Hatcher at DE? Yes we can.

Can we win if Tony Romo gets hurt again this season, like he has in the last two? No we can't.

Simple as that.

We have to beef up the OLine so that Tony doesn't get broken again this season. Without him under center, we are not going to win many games.

Getting the ebst defensive lineman or OLB in the draft might give us 6 more sacks a season, but losing Tony ends it all.

 

[jterrell]

They don't really have a lot invested at the guard position so much as they have a lot of bodies at the guard (and center) position.

Let's say they do draft DeCastro at 14, giving the Cowboys:

DeCastro
Livings
Bernadeau
Nagy
Arkin
Kowalski
Costa

7 guys competing for, what, 6 interior OL spots (3 starters, 3 reserves)? Pencil in DeCastro at RG and Livings at LG with potentially everyone else getting a shot at Center. Are you really going to lose any sleep if you have to cut ties with Phil Costa? Do you really think having to release one of the worst starting centers in the league last year is enough to make drafting DeCastro "not align with reality?"

Costa or Kowalksi are probably getting released regardless.
Some form of Nagy, Bern, Livings and Arkin are the current top 4 interior OL. I believe Kowalski showed enough to keep and develop.

Interior OL is NOT the weakest unit on the team.

You can grab another interior OL easily in round 2 or 3. You can get day 1 starters at 45. We absolutely do not need to invest 14 there. In pure football terms it would be stupid to do so. Tons of analysts and the Cowboys themselves are telling you it is out of the question. There is a reason that is the case.

 

[jterrell]

Can we win with Spencer at OLB and Lissimore and Hatcher at DE? Yes we can.

Can we win if Tony Romo gets hurt again this season, like he has in the last two? No we can't.

Simple as that.

We have to beef up the OLine so that Tony doesn't get broken again this season. Without him under center, we are not going to win many games.

Getting the ebst defensive lineman or OLB in the draft might give us 6 more sacks a season, but losing Tony ends it all.

We can lose TR with 5 Pro Bowl lineman.

And we paid Kyle Orton because he has won games before. Same we won games with Kitna.

Love the emo-ness of your pleas though. I could almost feel the black lip stick and eye shadow fly off the post.

 

[jterrell]

And what's sad about that is that he missed at least that many by a step or two, looking at the game film. And nearly every one he didn't get resulted in a first down to keep a drive going or a big play.

From a pure pass-rushing stance, I think either Ingram or Upshaw would be better certainly, and Mercilus has a chance to be better as well, based on the tape I've seen. After that, it's more of a crap shoot, which is why if they want to improve the position this year, they're almost going to have to use a first-rounder to do it.

The problem with those stats are how many of those OLB had Ware across from them? 6 sacks with Ware across from you sucks. I don't need metrics to tell me basic common sense things.

 

[jterrell]

The question is, are you comparing Spears/Hatcher/Coleman to other DEs in a 3-4 alignment or to DEs in a 4-3 alignment. If you're not comparing apples to apples, the numbers are going to be VERY skewed because DE in the 4-3 IS supposed to be their dominant pass rusher. Jason Pierre-Paul, Dwight Freeney, and even Mario Williams (before Wade got there last year) were pass rushing DEs in a 4-3 line-up, and they're supposed to have those stats. DEs in a 3-4 are not.

If you really want to compare stats in terms of sacks, pressures, etc. for the DEs, look at other 3-4 teams only, like Pittsburgh, Houston, New England, San Fran, et al. And even then, you have to be careful, as some of those teams, like New England, play as much 4-3 as they do 3-4. Rob Ryan will do that as well, but not nearly as much as some...at least not so far.

Because of this, the best comparisons to make are with teams that play predominantly the 3-4. Just looking at sack totals, here's how they stacked up, counting only DEs and NTs:

Green Bay's D-line: 6 sacks
Pittsburgh's D-line: 6.5 sacks
Dallas' D-line: 10.5 sacks
SF's D-line: 13 sacks
NY Jets D-line: 13.5 sacks
Baltimore's D-line: 15.5 sacks
Houston's D-line: 16.5 sacks

As you can see, Dallas is around the middle of the pack. Would it be nice to have as many as Houston or Baltimore? Of course...as long as you're not taking sacks away from D-Ware in the process.

My thinking it that an improved pass rush opposite D-Ware on the outside not only leads to more sacks for that person, but it forces the QB to step up into the pocket even when there's not room to do so, and that leads to more sacks for the D-linemen as well.

.

Sturm and PFF have confirmed Dallas was indeed 50/50 last year in 3-4 and 4-3.

They were not a pure 3-4 like the only two teams below them.
They were the 3rd worst team in the league in pass rush amongst DE/DT.

The likely reason we weren't a pure 3-4? Because those 3/4 DEs are so terrible we move 4-3 to get 1 of them off the friggin field.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Can we win with Spencer at OLB and Lissimore and Hatcher at DE? Yes we can.

Can we win if Tony Romo gets hurt again this season, like he has in the last two? No we can't.

Simple as that.

We have to beef up the OLine so that Tony doesn't get broken again this season. Without him under center, we are not going to win many games.

Getting the ebst defensive lineman or OLB in the draft might give us 6 more sacks a season, but losing Tony ends it all.

Believe it was a TE's missed block which led to Romo's 2010 injury & he only missed half a game last year. I think Guard is important, but believe it can be addressed in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

[fortdick]

Believe it was a TE's missed block which led to Romo's 2010 injury & he only missed half a game last year. I think Guard is important, but believe it can be addressed in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Well, then I guess we are fine with the broken ribs. He can just suck it up again.

 

[Wulfman]

Sturm and PFF have confirmed Dallas was indeed 50/50 last year in 3-4 and 4-3.

They were not a pure 3-4 like the only two teams below them.
They were the 3rd worst team in the league in pass rush amongst DE/DT.

The likely reason we weren't a pure 3-4? Because those 3/4 DEs are so terrible we move 4-3 to get 1 of them off the friggin field.

Their D-line play could well be improved, don't get me wrong. But having watched the film from every game, I think those guys are stretching it to say it was 50/50, unless they were counting every nickle package as a 4-3, which it isn't always. So we can agree to disagree there.

The point is that we can live with the D-line we have IF we get better pass rush from the outside and improved play in the secondary. And improving those things is a higher priority, in my opinion, than the D-line.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Well, then I guess we are fine with the broken ribs. He can just suck it up again.

Implying that it's a forgone conclusion that Romo gets injured in we don't draft Decastro/Glenn?

 

[jterrell]

Implying that it's a forgone conclusion that Romo gets injured in we don't draft Decastro/Glenn?

"injured"??? He is already making funeral arrangements.

Didn't you hear taps playing in the background on that last post?

 

[BlindFaith]

Can we win if Tony Romo gets hurt again this season, like he has in the last two? No we can't.

We have to beef up the OLine so that Tony doesn't get broken again this season. Without him under center, we are not going to win many games.

Getting the ebst defensive lineman or OLB in the draft might give us 6 more sacks a season, but losing Tony ends it all.

How many NFL teams can afford to lose their starting QB? How many of those teams have 5 probowlers on the oline?

If we don't shore up the defense and continue to give up leads, we won't win many games either. And playing catch up on offense means more times Romo is put in passing situations, which means more times he's at risk to get hurt.

 

[HoosierCowboy]

If we come out of the draft and trade/FA period with a starter on the OL and a starter in the secondary, I will be happy.

 

[kmd24]

The problem with those stats are how many of those OLB had Ware across from them? 6 sacks with Ware across from you sucks. I don't need metrics to tell me basic common sense things.

Only three of the 11 OLB with more sacks than Spencer were the "other" rusher in their team's 3-4. Only two of the guys with more pressures held that role.

There just aren't that many guys in a similar role in the NFL doing a better job statistically than Spencer.

I don't know why there's a perception that most 3-4 teams have two good OLB rushers. It simply isn't the case. The only team that's had it consistently is the Steelers with Harrison and Woodley.

 

[jterrell]

Their D-line play could well be improved, don't get me wrong. But having watched the film from every game, I think those guys are stretching it to say it was 50/50, unless they were counting every nickle package as a 4-3, which it isn't always. So we can agree to disagree there.

The point is that we can live with the D-line we have IF we get better pass rush from the outside and improved play in the secondary. And improving those things is a higher priority, in my opinion, than the D-line.

I didn't log formations but do trust Sturm who writes entire articles about formation percentages. He confirmed PFF stating it was 50/50. If you logged percentages I'd be willing to take your word for it but if it just your guesstimates over their logs that's a tougher pill to swallow.

Not a big deal to me however except to note no team who was in a 3-4 more often than us had few sacks amongst its down DE/DT. None.

I don't think you and I are far apart here rationally.
I guess I'd argue at some point you have to improve the weakest link on the team. To me that is down DL. Worst part is the one true quality down guy is aging and declining. Dallas really is getting desperate here imho.

Coverage wise we signed Carr and Pool who are both big-time coverage upgrades. Pass Rush-wise a true outside rusher would be ideal but may not be there which pushes inside or 3 point stance rusher up to the forefront. If we draft Brockers or Cox or Poe or any of those r1 rated DL they start day 1. Problem is by about 40 they are ALL gone. No one left after that is projected to do more than Hatcher or Spears at their ceilings.

All in all I am saying of those 3 spots (outside rush, inside rush, coverage) the area we are no weakest and the area we can improve the most readily at 14 is inside pass rusher. Which is why it is the most likely spot we target at 14.

BUT, outside rusher is the most valued and if one of those guys they truly like falls they'll be willing to quickly snag him.

I think if we stay at 14 there are only two real options: DL or OLB. Anything else and we fall back.

 

[jterrell]

Only three of the 11 OLB with more sacks than Spencer were the "other" rusher in their team's 3-4. Only two of the guys with more pressures held that role.

There just aren't that many guys in a similar role in the NFL doing a better job statistically than Spencer.

I don't know why there's a perception that most 3-4 teams have two good OLB rushers. It simply isn't the case. The only team that's had it consistently is the Steelers with Harrison and Woodley.

The number of teams playing a 3-4 is limited. So the number of guys filling Spencer's role is as well. We have seen analysis done a few times and over long threads so we aren't going to break new ground here. Bottom line is Spencer has "average" metrics as the off-side OLB. He isn't much worse than others or much better than others. Many have the same amount of sacks as him. No one has far few than him because he only averages 6 a season. Guys like Brooks Reed and Ryan Kerrigan prove it isn't an impossible job to do. Reed had 9.5 sacks if you include his post-season.

But none of those other guys have DeMarcus Ware. The only team who comes close is Pittsburgh. And as you state they have 2 guys who get high sack totals regularly.

Is Spencer better than Erik Walden? Of Course. Is he useable? Of Course! Do you want to pay him 9 mil a year? Of Course NOT.

That is the real issue here.

Not that Spencer sucks but that he is an average player with at best routine work ethic and development curve. I have zero desire to see us tied to him at huge dollars long term.

The point I am trying to make here is that an average player should get well above average numbers across from Ware. We move Ware around to get him better match ups. If we truly believed in Spencer wouldn't we just attack like Pittsburgh with little variation.

Spencer rushed the passer on 75% of his snaps last year. He collected a mere 6 sacks. That's not good. Considering you have the guy drawing the most attention in the NFL across from you that is really poor.

I get that Spencer was often close. If Greg Ellis was a step faster on every play he woulda been Bruce Smith. That little bit extra is what we are looking for if we can find it... and if we have to pay 9 mil per year for it.

 

[JIGGYFLY]

The number of teams playing a 3-4 is limited. So the number of guys filling Spencer's role is as well. We have seen analysis done a few times and over long threads so we aren't going to break new ground here. Bottom line is Spencer has "average" metrics as the off-side OLB. He isn't much worse than others or much better than others. Many have the same amount of sacks as him. No one has far few than him because he only averages 6 a season. Guys like Brooks Reed and Ryan Kerrigan prove it isn't an impossible job to do. Reed had 9.5 sacks if you include his post-season.

But none of those other guys have DeMarcus Ware. The only team who comes close is Pittsburgh. And as you state they have 2 guys who get high sack totals regularly.

Is Spencer better than Erik Walden? Of Course. Is he useable? Of Course! Do you want to pay him 9 mil a year? Of Course NOT.

That is the real issue here.

Not that Spencer sucks but that he is an average player with at best routine work ethic and development curve. I have zero desire to see us tied to him at huge dollars long term.

The point I am trying to make here is that an average player should get well above average numbers across from Ware. We move Ware around to get him better match ups. If we truly believed in Spencer wouldn't we just attack like Pittsburgh with little variation.

Spencer rushed the passer on 75% of his snaps last year. He collected a mere 6 sacks. That's not good. Considering you have the guy drawing the most attention in the NFL across from you that is really poor.

I get that Spencer was often close. If Greg Ellis was a step faster on every play he woulda been Bruce Smith. That little bit extra is what we are looking for if we can find it... and if we have to pay 9 mil per year for it.

Brooks Reed was the primary rush guy for Houston and his d-line had very good sack numbers so how does that fit into your not hard to do better metric.

You keep bringing up playing across from Ware yet leave out the fact that the d-line was below average as pass rushers, notice how the best 3/4 defenses have good pass rushers at DE?

 

[Wulfman]

I didn't log formations but do trust Sturm who writes entire articles about formation percentages. He confirmed PFF stating it was 50/50. If you logged percentages I'd be willing to take your word for it but if it just your guesstimates over their logs that's a tougher pill to swallow.

Not a big deal to me however except to note no team who was in a 3-4 more often than us had few sacks amongst its down DE/DT. None.

I don't think you and I are far apart here rationally.
I guess I'd argue at some point you have to improve the weakest link on the team. To me that is down DL. Worst part is the one true quality down guy is aging and declining. Dallas really is getting desperate here imho.

Coverage wise we signed Carr and Pool who are both big-time coverage upgrades. Pass Rush-wise a true outside rusher would be ideal but may not be there which pushes inside or 3 point stance rusher up to the forefront. If we draft Brockers or Cox or Poe or any of those r1 rated DL they start day 1. Problem is by about 40 they are ALL gone. No one left after that is projected to do more than Hatcher or Spears at their ceilings.

All in all I am saying of those 3 spots (outside rush, inside rush, coverage) the area we are no weakest and the area we can improve the most readily at 14 is inside pass rusher. Which is why it is the most likely spot we target at 14.

BUT, outside rusher is the most valued and if one of those guys they truly like falls they'll be willing to quickly snag him.

I think if we stay at 14 there are only two real options: DL or OLB. Anything else and we fall back.

I didn't write down every formation for every play as it sounds like they may have, but did watch the game film numerous times. I'd say my breakdown comes down to about 60/30/10, with the majority in 3-4, but with 10% in a hybrid that, in my opinion, doesn't really qualify as either 4-3 or 3-4. And I have heard that they want the 4-man front percentage to increase, so maybe they're thinking the same thing you are.

I agree that you and I aren't far apart in our opinions, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull the trigger on either a DL or an OLB at #14. But I think there's enough depth that they can trade back and still get a quality guy around #20, even if it ends up being Barron or Gilmore, and use the extra pick to either move back up or sit and take guys that can help at the other positions.