A Recipe for Disaster

[jday]

If you have been following professional football for as long as I have, you most likely have learned to recognize a disaster in the making via Free Agency when you see one. For me, the ingredients are fairly simple to identify:


You start with an over 30 otherwise great player.

Throw in some comments from said player about caring more about the “money bag” then actually joining a winning organization.

Give him what he wants on a 3 year or more contract.

And viola, you have the makings of a cap, lockerroom and teamwide disaster.


For me, that’s exactly what Suh represents and as such, I want no part of him. Sure, he might work out in the beginning (though, it wouldn’t surprise me if he fell off from the get go), but ultimately and eventually, that’s a contract I suspect the Cowboys would absolutely regret.


How do I know?


I’ve seen it way too many times before. There was a time Jerry was notorious for paying players for what they had done instead of paying players for what they were going to do. Granted, there will be outliers to this phenomenon…guys that did pan out for their team; but make no mistake, those instances are the exception, not the rule.


So while I recognize Suh has been a beast in this league, I also recognize that for many he has also been a head-case with a poor attitude. Those days very well may be behind him, but eventually his overall athleticism will follow. When that will happen is anybody’s guess, but for big guys like him who have taken a whole lot of pounding over their careers, I’d bet that will happen sooner than later…and most definitely before he reaches year 3 of the potential contract he is likely to get.


It’s a suckers bet and speaking for myself, I truly do hope the Cowboys pass on him.


The other thing I suspect many fans are not taking in consideration is that the way Suh’s (most likely) 3 year or more contract would be structured, is the first year would be cap friendly, with each year accelerating in price. With Dak being due for a contract in 2 years, making this deal could make keeping Dak extremely difficult. Granted, Dak would have to return to his 2016 form for that to be an issue, but I certainly wouldn’t bet against him…especially to rent the declining services of one Ndamukong Suh.


Thoughts?

 

[CapnB]

Considering that Ive read this morning that the Earl Thomas trade is more likely to happen than signing Suh. There should be nothing to worry about.

 

[jday]

Considering that Ive read this morning that the Earl Thomas trade is more likely to happen than signing Suh. There should be nothing to worry about.

I'm all for Thomas, at the right price. I heard on 105.3 the Seahawks are asking for a 1st round pick in exchange for what may turn out being a 1 year rental. No thanks on that, though, admittedly I admit it would be tempting. I might go as high as a 2nd, but I wouldn't feel great about that...especially if we are unable to retain him beyond a year.

 

[CapnB]

I'm all for Thomas, at the right price. I heard on 105.3 the Seahawks are asking for a 1st round pick in exchange for what may turn out being a 1 year rental. No thanks on that, though, admittedly I admit it would be tempting. I might go as high as a 2nd, but I wouldn't feel great about that...especially if we are unable to retain him beyond a year.

If the talks are as serious as they have been made out to be, I'm sure the 1st rd pick was probably just a starting point. I'm sure the boys will counter with a 3rd pick and the Hawks will probably counter with a 2nd rd'er. Also wouldnt be surprised if a player dallas has is involved with this as well. Of course, I dont think any of this gets done without a contract extension which im sure both the boys and Thomas are wanting.

 

[kskboys]

I love Thomas, but I wouldn't give more than a 3rd for him at this stage of his career. I think we'd regret giving up a 2nd. Because we are not one S away from contention.

 

[Dalmations202]

I would work a player and a lower draft pick, instead of a high one.

 

[CapnB]

I love Thomas, but I wouldn't give more than a 3rd for him at this stage of his career. I think we'd regret giving up a 2nd. Because we are not one S away from contention.

But what are the chances a player of Thomas's caliber is there in the 2nd round?

 

[jday]

I love Thomas, but I wouldn't give more than a 3rd for him at this stage of his career. I think we'd regret giving up a 2nd. Because we are not one S away from contention.

In a year where the Cowboys only have 7 picks, I would understand. But the Cowboys have 10 picks, which means if there is someone there in the 2nd, they have the draft capital to get back in there. For Thomas, it just might be worth it.

As to your "one-Safety-away" comment, you are right. But that's what the draft is for. In other words, they could be a Safety and a good draft (of the 2016 variety) away from serious contention.

 

[jday]

If the talks are as serious as they have been made out to be, I'm sure the 1st rd pick was probably just a starting point. I'm sure the boys will counter with a 3rd pick and the Hawks will probably counter with a 2nd rd'er. Also wouldnt be surprised if a player dallas has is involved with this as well. Of course, I dont think any of this gets done without a contract extension which im sure both the boys and Thomas are wanting.

In essence, there's a right way to do this and a wrong way. For now, I think the Cowboys are playing the offseason right; being patient, not over-extending themselves, not making moves fueled by the emotional let down of 2018. But indecision will eventually kill them if they are too patient. Given what you said (a 2nd round pick and atleast a 3 year deal agreed to in principle), I'd definitely be on board, without hesitation.

 

[kskboys]

In a year where the Cowboys only have 7 picks, I would understand. But the Cowboys have 10 picks, which means if there is someone there in the 2nd, they have the draft capital to get back in there. For Thomas, it just might be worth it.

As to your "one-Safety-away" comment, you are right. But that's what the draft is for. In other words, they could be a Safety and a good draft (of the 2016 variety) away from serious contention.

They don't. It would take some of next year's draft picks to get back into the 2nd. Offer a team a 3, 4, 5 for a 2nd round pick, and they'd laugh at you.

 

[jday]

I would work a player and a lower draft pick, instead of a high one.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I have no idea what you just said.

 

[kskboys]

But what are the chances a player of Thomas's caliber is there in the 2nd round?

Turn it around. What are the chances we'll be super bowl bound this next season? Because Thomas, at his age, may not have much longer than that. You're giving up a long term player for a 1 year rental.

 

[jday]

They don't. It would take some of next year's draft picks to get back into the 2nd. Offer a team a 3, 4, 5 for a 2nd round pick, and they'd laugh at you.

Fair enough...you are most likely right about that...and, no, I'm not a fan of trading future draft picks, so let me take a different tact:

Would you rather have Thomas, a proven Safety commodity, or gamble with who the Cowboys draft in the second? Please look at the Cowboys last 3 years of second round picks and tell me you would prefer that over Thomas.

 

[kskboys]

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I have no idea what you just said.

He wants to offer a 5th and a player.

 

[Dalmations202]

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I have no idea what you just said.

My apologies. Very cryptic on my part.
I am afraid you are correct on Suh. I would say 50/50 chance he is done with the next signing. But oh if not, he was/is a monster.

I was referring to the Thomas statement on giving a 1st and countering with a 3rd. I think Dallas would be better with a player for player trade with lower level picks thrown in to make up for the talent gap.

 

[kskboys]

Fair enough...you are most likely right about that...and, no, I'm not a fan of trading future draft picks, so let me take a different tact:

Would you rather have Thomas, a proven Safety commodity, or gamble with who the Cowboys draft in the second? Please look at the Cowboys last 3 years of second round picks and tell me you would prefer that over Thomas.

I have to take the pick. Because of the extreme uncertainty of what Thomas has left. Many/most DB's decline sharply around the age of 30, and Earl is already starting to miss time from injury. Hard hitting S's who weigh a buck 80 don't have long careers.

Now, if we had a super bowl ready team, I might be tempted.

 

[kskboys]

My apologies. Very cryptic on my part.
I am afraid you are correct on Suh. I would say 50/50 chance he is done with the next signing. But oh if not, he was/is a monster.

I was referring to the Thomas statement on giving a 1st and countering with a 3rd. I think Dallas would be better with a player for player trade with lower level picks thrown in to make up for the talent gap.

Who are you suggesting trading? Sean Lee?

 

[kskboys]

In essence, there's a right way to do this and a wrong way. For now, I think the Cowboys are playing the offseason right; being patient, not over-extending themselves, not making moves fueled by the emotional let down of 2018. But indecision will eventually kill them if they are too patient. Given what you said (a 2nd round pick and atleast a 3 year deal agreed to in principle), I'd definitely be on board, without hesitation.

I'm in no way disappointed in our offseason. Yet. However, if we don't add a mid tier FA or two, then I will be.

We do not have the cap room, and we are not one player away, so I agree w/ our stance so far. Teams are running out of room now, though, and soon we should be making a play. No more Carroll's and Bell's though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Dalmations202]

Who are you suggesting trading? Sean Lee?

I am not sure who they would want. That is part of the negotiation. Byron Jones? David Irving? Dez/Beasley/Hanna? not sure who they would be willing without talking to them.

 

[kskboys]

I am not sure who they would want. That is part of the negotiation. Byron Jones? David Irving? Dez/Beasley/Hanna? not sure who they would be willing without talking to them.

Byron? They'd laugh at you.
Irving? We don't own his rights.
Dez? Maybe
Beas? Maybe
Hanna? More laughing.

They'd want value, not some scrub/JAG.