Addressing Dak’s “Sophmore Slump”

[LatinMind]

Before Zeke was suspended, these were Dak’s numbers over the first eight games:

Total Yards - 2,013
Total TDS - 20
Interceptions - 4

Project those stats over an entire season:

Total Yards - 4,026
Total TDs - 40
Interceptions - 8

Compare that to his rookie year:

Total Yards - 3,949
Total TDs - 29
Interceptions - 4

So even with some early struggles from the offensive line and a worsening connection with Dez, Dak’s trajectory was pointing way up.

So had Dak & Zeke played the entire season together, we’d be talking about what a monster year Dak just had.

If you take away his best weapon, injure his best offensive lineman [and do nothing to compensate for it] and leave him with receivers who struggle to get open, your QB is bound to struggle.

But since Zeke will be playing a full season next year and the front office is using draft picks to make the offense “Dak friendly”, we have absolutely no reason to believe his trajectory won’t go back to pointing up.

Dak is the man and we’re fortunate to have him.

While agree, Daks numbers had more to do with the OL'd inability to protect him. But even that goes further because Tyron was injured, but Martin was also dealing with a concussion. And while he got back on the field, he wasnt the same. And with that, Collins holes were much more apparent.

 

[percyhoward]

Before Zeke was suspended, these were Dak’s numbers over the first eight games:

Total Yards - 2,013
Total TDS - 20
Interceptions - 4

Dak's problem was the effect of having to deal with a lot of pressures in one game. It affected him even on plays when he wasn't pressured.

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/prescott-and-the-perception-of-pressure.393826/

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

My ship sailed months ago? In 2016 he was more than fine. He had a rookie year in his second year. I am not making any judgement until his next full season.

You can think whatever you want and use bias in how you judge however you want. I am just saying that the argument that Dak played well under pressure in college so he should be able to do so in the pros has clear empirical evidence to the contrary.

Hope springs eternal. I hope he plays better too. I just have evidence that speaks the other way that I will not ignore because I like the guy.

 

[CouchCoach]

Since I watched him play at Miss St his last two seasons and this past season flashed back on that a little too much, I have to ask myself these questions. Why did he have to have injuries to get his start in high school, college and the NFL? In a league that over examines the QB role, why was he the 7th taken and 3rd choice by the team that took him?

Dak Prescott is a bit of an enigma and we've all seen enough to be concerned and encouraged at the same time. The only thing I know for sure is that they cannot run that kind of offense this season and be successful in the NFL. Pederson got a ring by being aggressive and playing to win and the Cowboys have to do the same and they spend too much time playing not to lose.

Can Dak lead this team to the Big Dance? I believe so as long as it is as a team. Let's not forget the kind of teams Roger and Troy had to get there. And while we're thinking about that, how about Starr, Bradshaw, Montana, Manning's and Brady?

 

[conner01]

It wasn't Zeke, it was Tyron.

Exactly
Add to that teams took away Beasley and we never adjusted to it

 

[cowboy_ron]

What does Dez need?

An eviction notice.

 

[Ken]

So basically he needs an elite back and elite OL to play at an NFL level?


Some QB we have...

lol.

How about a backup rb that was actually not a 1 trick poney and was a threat in the passing game?

How about a backup OL that could at least let him complete his drop without being sacked 8 times?

Average play from either would have been acceptable.

 

[phildadon86]

You can think whatever you want and use bias in how you judge however you want. I am just saying that the argument that Dak played well under pressure in college so he should be able to do so in the pros has clear empirical evidence to the contrary.

Hope springs eternal. I hope he plays better too. I just have evidence that speaks the other way that I will not ignore because I like the guy.

You have evidence of one year and I have evidence of one year. Do you not think giving him year 3 to prove 2016 wasn't a fluke before saying hes never going to carry this team is fair?

 

[conner01]

Dak is fine under ideal conditions. No doubt that OL play needs to be better and depth needs to be found but that was him throwing the ball all over the place and into coverage while he let his mechanics go into the toilet.

Dak is better than a bus driver but he is not able to carry a team. That is the overall take here.

At this time you may be right. But as he gets smarter I think he can. He’s never likely to be Tom Brady but if the staff does a better job with the offense I think he will be fine and continue to grow as a QB

 

[Falco78]

Exactly
Add to that teams took away Beasley and we never adjusted to it

Adjust?!?!?!?! Let me Google that and send the results to our coaching staff...

 

[Idgit]

with starting OL -- 28.4 points
without -- 8.1 points

Guh.

We really blew it putting the team together last year. Too much confusion around who was going to play LT, and I don't get how they didn't handicap Tyron better based off of what they were seeing in camp. I have a hard time believing the backup OTs just got bad when we needed them.

We blew the analysis of Jaylon's ability to play full time MIKE, too. Durant wasn't the player he'd been previously, we let Nzeocha and Gachkar walk, and didn't draft or make the effort to add a capable vet. I don't see how they didn't recognize we didn't have enough guys to give us starting snaps there. We were helpless in those Rams and Packers games. And then later v. the Falcons when Lee tweaked himself again. We were looking like we were going to win that game until he went out.

Really just those two position groups gave us fits. I mean, we had other issues obviously, but adequate options at OT and ILB and we'd probably have qualified for the postseason. Those are such important positions, too. Frustrating.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You have evidence of one year and I have evidence of one year. Do you not think giving him year 3 to prove 2016 wasn't a fluke before saying hes never going to carry this team is fair?

You have no evidence of him facing NFL pressure and succeeding. That was why I said that this is not the NCAA. If you want to act like college tape is commensurate with pro tape then we are just not going to see eye to eye.

 

[glimmerman]

Guh.

We really blew it putting the team together last year. Too much confusion around who was going to play LT, and I don't get how they didn't handicap Tyron better based off of what they were seeing in camp. I have a hard time believing the backup OTs just got bad when we needed them.

We blew the analysis of Jaylon's ability to play full time MIKE, too. Durant wasn't the player he'd been previously, we let Nzeocha and Gachkar walk, and didn't draft or make the effort to add a capable vet. I don't see how they didn't recognize we didn't have enough guys to give us starting snaps there. We were helpless in those Rams and Packers games. And then later v. the Falcons when Lee tweaked himself again. We were looking like we were going to win that game until he went out.

Really just those two position groups gave us fits. I mean, we had other issues obviously, but adequate options at OT and ILB and we'd probably have qualified for the postseason. Those are such important positions, too. Frustrating.

Hmmm wonder what we areas to draft and FA for this year.

 

[yimyammer]

An eviction notice.

 

[Aviano90]

This is not college. No doubt he is needed but he is not Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers who can still function without ideal OL play and a running game.

This discussion is not going to be in play for a couple years now but no way on Earth should he be paid like those guys.

We'll see how things turn out for Dak, but I remember the same things were being said about Wilson. His ceiling was supposed to be bus driver and could only be successful with a great running game and defense.

 

[HungryLion]

So basically he needs an elite back and elite OL to play at an NFL level?


Some QB we have...

To be fair Willie. He posted stats from the first half of last season.

The OL was NOT playing at an elite level the first half of last season. They were playing fairly well, to good at times. Poor at other times. Overall solid and dependable. But they were NOT playing at an elite level the first 8 games last season.

To also be fair. Dak didn’t play well enough the second half of the season, no matter what was going on. The poor protection had too much of an effect on him and he needs to get better under pressure.

I think he can and hope he will. We shall see though.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Guh.

We really blew it putting the team together last year. Too much confusion around who was going to play LT, and I don't get how they didn't handicap Tyron better based off of what they were seeing in camp. I have a hard time believing the backup OTs just got bad when we needed them.

We blew the analysis of Jaylon's ability to play full time MIKE, too. Durant wasn't the player he'd been previously, we let Nzeocha and Gachkar walk, and didn't draft or make the effort to add a capable vet. I don't see how they didn't recognize we didn't have enough guys to give us starting snaps there. We were helpless in those Rams and Packers games. And then later v. the Falcons when Lee tweaked himself again. We were looking like we were going to win that game until he went out.

Really just those two position groups gave us fits. I mean, we had other issues obviously, but adequate options at OT and ILB and we'd probably have qualified for the postseason. Those are such important positions, too. Frustrating.

They screwed up when they moved Green to OG. That was a big mistake.

As for Smith, I don't think the expectation was for him to be the full time MIKE last year. He was thrown into the fire when Hitchens went down.

You have to choose positions where you are going to go thin at with depth given the scarcity of talent and the cap. Sometimes you are just going to crap out although I think the defensive side of the ball is where you have the most attrition over time even with Marinelli's rotations.

I do think you are absolutely correct about the issues those two spots created with the horrific pass protection, run fits and coverage in the middle of the field.

I do think keeping Green at OT solves that problem for all the panic over the Falcons game. He had come off injury only a couple of weeks before and had two weeks to practice back at OT.

Unfortunately, this year is pretty bad in the draft for LB. There are not many good ones. Hitchens is in a great position.

 

[xwalker]

Before Zeke was suspended, these were Dak’s numbers over the first eight games:

Total Yards - 2,013
Total TDS - 20
Interceptions - 4

Project those stats over an entire season:

Total Yards - 4,026
Total TDs - 40
Interceptions - 8

Compare that to his rookie year:

Total Yards - 3,949
Total TDs - 29
Interceptions - 4

So even with some early struggles from the offensive line and a worsening connection with Dez, Dak’s trajectory was pointing way up.

So had Dak & Zeke played the entire season together, we’d be talking about what a monster year Dak just had.

If you take away his best weapon, injure his best offensive lineman [and do nothing to compensate for it] and leave him with receivers who struggle to get open, your QB is bound to struggle.

But since Zeke will be playing a full season next year and the front office is using draft picks to make the offense “Dak friendly”, we have absolutely no reason to believe his trajectory won’t go back to pointing up.

Dak is the man and we’re fortunate to have him.

Great stats.

There were also stats from @percyhoward in regards to games when either Tyron or Martin missed a game vs when they both played.

Also, games with more than 40% pressure vs less than 40%.

Like the stats you posted, the other stats are extreme in Dak's favor.

 

[HungryLion]

Sure and that puts him in JAG territory for all the excuses you guys are trying to make for him. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are examples of guys who can function in a poor pass protection environment. He is not at those guys level.

If you want to be content with him being Blake Bortles then more power to you.

Tell you what. The next time an Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson level QB is available. I am perfectly fine with the cowboys taking them.

They are only available around every 8-10 years though. So just let me know when that happens.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

We'll see how things turn out for Dak, but I remember the same things were being said about Wilson. His ceiling was supposed to be bus driver and could only be successful with a great running game and defense.

You guys really seem to struggle with the idea of temporal order and how to evaluate. You guys like making arguments that were settled in the past to the contrary.

That was the argument against Wilson when they let Okung and others go in FA. People were predicting that he would come down to Earth in the face of that. That is not what happened though after the fact.

The thing is that Wilson passed his test. Dak did not. Russell Wilson is a better QB.