Addressing Dak’s “Sophmore Slump”

[northerncowboynation]

I really wouldn't call it a sophomore slump. I think that's too easy. I'd probably call it second year growing pains or getting a whiff of reality. Yes, Zeke is a comfort blanket back behind him. Very versatile in what he can do. What I saw in Dak in 2016 I didn't see in 2017. In 2016 if he made a mistake, had a bad half or quarter or series he put it behind him and lead the team right back. Including the last game with the Packers in 2016. It was very impressive. I didn't see as much of that "put it behind you mentality in 2017". It really showed when Zeke and Tyron were out. I guess 8 sacks in one game and 16 or 18 in 3 will do that... shake your confidence. Have to hope that we get Tyrons back issues figured out this off season and hope Zeke keeps his nose clean. I still have confidence in Dak to take us further

 

[Aviano90]

Zeke *also* had a sophomore slump.

 

[percyhoward]

The takeaway here is that he was not able to do so in the pros. Your argument makes sense when Tyron goes down and you are trying to tell us Dak will be fine. Well he did face NFL pressure and he wasn't fine.

Just to be clear, Dak is one of the league's best over the last two years under pressure -- unless he's pressured an inordinate amount of times in the game.

These are all attempts when pressured in games during which the QB was pressured on less than 40% of his dropbacks in 2016-17. That's more than two-thirds of all games played over the last two seasons.

Brady 115 212 1708 14 4 95.0
Prescott 85 158 1118 8 1 90.6
Cousins 135 243 1743 10 5 83.4
Mariota 91 190 1176 12 3 82.3
Rodgers 87 194 1215 13 3 81.4
Stafford 128 240 1807 8 5 80.3
Ryan 131 258 1711 8 3 77.5
Keenum 55 109 646 3 1 74.2
Winston 105 212 1211 11 6 72.7
Goff 57 135 849 5 2 69.6
Brees 116 211 1260 2 5 66.1
Manning 124 256 1428 9 7 66.0
Newton 70 148 965 5 5 65.9
Smith 100 211 1210 5 4 65.5
Rthlsbrgr 102 206 1362 7 9 64.0
McCown 50 104 725 3 5 60.8
Bortles 133 272 1504 6 9 59.4
Rivers 70 146 1011 4 8 57.2
Carr 115 231 1434 5 12 55.0
Flacco 114 236 1211 5 9 54.9
Wentz 97 226 1123 7 10 50.4
Siemian 59 153 792 3 7 43.3

Dak's problem has been when he is pressured on 40% or more of his dropbacks in the game. In those games, he's been terrible, whether or not he was pressured on the play.

In 2017 alone, Dak had a 94.6 rating on pressured attempts in the <40% pressure games, and a 74.0 rating from a clean pocket in the ≥ 40% pressure games. The ≥ 40% pressure games only made up about 30% of all games over the last two years.

 

[HungryLion]

That's not how player acquisition works. It's hardly like Dak is top 5 QB material either.

I just picked those two off the top of my head. The over/under of where Dak ranks amongst NFL QBs is 12.

Ryan, Rodgers, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Brees, Brady, Stafford and Rivers are clearly ahead. Dak is in the mishmash with Carr, Smith, Wentz, Dalton, Bortles, Newton, Winston, Flacco, Bortles, and Mariota.

The point here is that the Cowboys should continue to try to get better at the QB position. Drafting one certainly would not be remiss.

It is how player acquisition works.

I am not against drafting more QB’s. But the truth is, QB’s as good as Dak are not easy to find. It will probably take a first round pick. If the cowboys drafted a QB round one I wouldn’t hate it. But no guarantee he bears out Dak either.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Before Zeke was suspended, these were Dak’s numbers over the first eight games:

Total Yards - 2,013
Total TDS - 20
Interceptions - 4

Project those stats over an entire season:

Total Yards - 4,026
Total TDs - 40
Interceptions - 8

Compare that to his rookie year:

Total Yards - 3,949
Total TDs - 29
Interceptions - 4

So even with some early struggles from the offensive line and a worsening connection with Dez, Dak’s trajectory was pointing way up.

So had Dak & Zeke played the entire season together, we’d be talking about what a monster year Dak just had.

If you take away his best weapon, injure his best offensive lineman [and do nothing to compensate for it] and leave him with receivers who struggle to get open, your QB is bound to struggle.

But since Zeke will be playing a full season next year and the front office is using draft picks to make the offense “Dak friendly”, we have absolutely no reason to believe his trajectory won’t go back to pointing up.

Dak is the man and we’re fortunate to have him.

So the stats before and after Tyrons injury. Sure Zeke is a huge weapon but that wasn't the reason Daks numbers dropped. He was because Tyron was injured.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

This is not college. No doubt he is needed but he is not Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers who can still function without ideal OL play and a running game.

This discussion is not going to be in play for a couple years now but no way on Earth should he be paid like those guys.

After 2 seasons Rodgers was sitting on the bench so no you wouldn't have paid him top dollar either. Wilson win the Superbowl his second season I believe so after 2 seasons then you might think about him getting top money.

Dak got us back into the GB game in the playoffs by throwing. Many other games where Dak took over like 3rd and long and picked it up with his feet, some goal line rushing TDs. The list goes on. To say he can't carry the team is premature and then say he wouldn't get top dollar like Rodgers is silly as well since Dak just finished his second season and at the time of Rodgers second season he was sitting on the bench.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

My ship sailed months ago? In 2016 he was more than fine. He had a rookie year in his second year. I am not making any judgement until his next full season.

Not sure why folks think Dak is a finished prospect. It's like if they aren't All-pro their first year then they are garbage. I remember when most wanted Lawrence gone, now here is close to being their favorite player.

Not many times can a rookie come in and be the best and continue that.

 

[HungryLion]

After 2 seasons Rodgers was sitting on the bench so no you wouldn't have paid him top dollar either. Wilson win the Superbowl his second season I believe so after 2 seasons then you might think about him getting top money.

Dak got us back into the GB game in the playoffs by throwing. Many other games where Dak took over like 3rd and long and picked it up with his feet, some goal line rushing TDs. The list goes on. To say he can't carry the team is premature and then say he wouldn't get top dollar like Rodgers is silly as well since Dak just finished his second season and at the time of Rodgers second season he was sitting on the bench.

Also, and not to jump on fuzzy too hard. But all of the QB’s he listed. All but two of them were 1st or 2nd rounders. Only Wilson and Brady were drafted later.

MOST of the QB’s he listed as better than Dak or around the same level were top 10 picks.

So the truth is, the odds are that you would most likely need a top 10 pick to get a QB better than Dak.

And even then, there’s a greater than 50% chance a top 10 QB busts.

It is NOT easy to find QB’s as good as Dak Prescott.

So that DOES have an affect on decision making.

Again, if they think a QB can be a good one and want to draft him. That’s fine. But who knows how long it takes to find another top 10 caliber QB. It can take teams years to do it.

I also am all in favor of them drafting QB in the mid rounds in hope of finding a quality developmental guy (like Dak was supposed to be). That is perfectly fine with me also.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Also, and not to jump on fuzzy too hard. But all of the QB’s he listed. All but two of them were 1st or 2nd rounders. Only Wilson and Brady were drafted later.

MOST of the QB’s he listed as better than Dak or around the same level were top 10 picks.

So the truth is, the odds are that you would most likely need a top 10 pick to get a QB better than Dak.

And even then, there’s a greater than 50% chance a top 10 QB busts.

It is NOT easy to find QB’s as good as Dak Prescott.

So that DOES have an affect on decision making.

Again, if they think a QB can be a good one and want to draft him. That’s fine. But who knows how long it takes to find another top 10 caliber QB. It can take teams years to do it.

I also am all in favor of them drafting QB in the mid rounds in hope of finding a quality developmental guy (like Dak was supposed to be). That is perfectly fine with me also.

I agree with everything you said.

 

[phildadon86]

You have no evidence of him facing NFL pressure and succeeding. That was why I said that this is not the NCAA. If you want to act like college tape is commensurate with pro tape then we are just not going to see eye to eye.

Ok let’s look at his rookie year. He did well against pressure when it came. You just don’t want to admit it. Which is fine

 

[phildadon86]

Just to be clear, Dak is one of the league's best over the last two years under pressure -- unless he's pressured an inordinate amount of times in the game.

These are all attempts when pressured in games during which the QB was pressured on less than 40% of his dropbacks in 2016-17. That's more than two-thirds of all games played over the last two seasons.

Brady 115 212 1708 14 4 95.0
Prescott 85 158 1118 8 1 90.6
Cousins 135 243 1743 10 5 83.4
Mariota 91 190 1176 12 3 82.3
Rodgers 87 194 1215 13 3 81.4
Stafford 128 240 1807 8 5 80.3
Ryan 131 258 1711 8 3 77.5
Keenum 55 109 646 3 1 74.2
Winston 105 212 1211 11 6 72.7
Goff 57 135 849 5 2 69.6
Brees 116 211 1260 2 5 66.1
Manning 124 256 1428 9 7 66.0
Newton 70 148 965 5 5 65.9
Smith 100 211 1210 5 4 65.5
Rthlsbrgr 102 206 1362 7 9 64.0
McCown 50 104 725 3 5 60.8
Bortles 133 272 1504 6 9 59.4
Rivers 70 146 1011 4 8 57.2
Carr 115 231 1434 5 12 55.0
Flacco 114 236 1211 5 9 54.9
Wentz 97 226 1123 7 10 50.4
Siemian 59 153 792 3 7 43.3

Dak's problem has been when he is pressured on 40% or more of his dropbacks in the game. In those games, he's been terrible, whether or not he was pressured on the play.

In 2017 alone, Dak had a 94.6 rating on pressured attempts in the <40% pressure games, and a 74.0 rating from a clean pocket in the ≥ 40% pressure games. The ≥ 40% pressure games only made up about 30% of all games over the last two years.

Bet he won’t respond to this. Completely thru his agenda out the window lol. Kudos

 

[Ken]

When Zeke came back, Dak threw a total of 1 TD with 2 INTs and a 67 rating.

Tyron played in the Chargers game where Dak had 0 Tds 2 INTs and a 60 rating


Once again, who wants a QB that stinks it up when some players are missing?

And Zeke wasn't remotely close to ready when he came back. 3.9 you and 0 tds isn't exactly lighting it up.

 

[SlammedZero]

Dak will be fine. He is a young quaterback. Sure, he had the perfect storm last year, things fell apart a little this year, and he faced some adversity. He will learn.

What makes me chuckle is I saw somebody compare him to being able to "carry his team like Russell Wilson". Oh yeah? The Wilson who also had bad Oline play, no running game, and only got his team to a 9-7 record and missed the playoffs?

 

[Aviano90]

And Zeke wasn't remotely close to ready when he came back. 3.9 you and 0 tds isn't exactly lighting it up.

Joseph Randle territory right there. I was wondering which RB was wearing #21 last year.

 

[KJJ]

Dak was solid the first half of the season and slumped in the second half of the season. Check his numbers. He was sacked 22 times the second half of the season after being sacked only 9 times the first 8 games. The loss of Zeke and Tyron had a huge affect on his play and the teams play.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Ok let’s look at his rookie year. He did well against pressure when it came. You just don’t want to admit it. Which is fine

He was hardly pressured except against the Giants and Philly. You should review how he did in those games. I get that the Dak fanbois like to pretend that he was perfect before Tyron went down but that is not the case.

 

[WillieBeamen]

And Zeke wasn't remotely close to ready when he came back. 3.9 you and 0 tds isn't exactly lighting it up.

Lol now he wasnt close to being ready? You dont remember the training program he did in Cabo? You dont remember him coming back in tip top shape?

Just maybe Zekes performance suffered because teams loaded up vs the run because we have a suspect passing attack.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

After 2 seasons Rodgers was sitting on the bench so no you wouldn't have paid him top dollar either. Wilson win the Superbowl his second season I believe so after 2 seasons then you might think about him getting top money.

Dak got us back into the GB game in the playoffs by throwing. Many other games where Dak took over like 3rd and long and picked it up with his feet, some goal line rushing TDs. The list goes on. To say he can't carry the team is premature and then say he wouldn't get top dollar like Rodgers is silly as well since Dak just finished his second season and at the time of Rodgers second season he was sitting on the bench.

I never said that Dak could not improve and I was not making the comparison from year to respective years but rather where those guys are at now. I am saying Dak has a ways to go.

The discussion is moot now because he's under contract for two years more but he is not a top QB in the league right now nonetheless.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Also, and not to jump on fuzzy too hard. But all of the QB’s he listed. All but two of them were 1st or 2nd rounders. Only Wilson and Brady were drafted later.

MOST of the QB’s he listed as better than Dak or around the same level were top 10 picks.

So the truth is, the odds are that you would most likely need a top 10 pick to get a QB better than Dak.

And even then, there’s a greater than 50% chance a top 10 QB busts.

It is NOT easy to find QB’s as good as Dak Prescott.

So that DOES have an affect on decision making.

Again, if they think a QB can be a good one and want to draft him. That’s fine. But who knows how long it takes to find another top 10 caliber QB. It can take teams years to do it.

I also am all in favor of them drafting QB in the mid rounds in hope of finding a quality developmental guy (like Dak was supposed to be). That is perfectly fine with me also.

I don't care where they were drafted as it has no bearing on how well they play. I am not saying that Dak is not a good 4th round pick or a bad prospect. I'm just pushing back against the fanbois who pretend that he is the greatest of all time and the like.

Jimmy Johnson hedged his bets when he had Aikman and drafted Walsh. If they both develop then you can get a bounty as we did with Walsh two year later.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It is how player acquisition works.

I am not against drafting more QB’s. But the truth is, QB’s as good as Dak are not easy to find. It will probably take a first round pick. If the cowboys drafted a QB round one I wouldn’t hate it. But no guarantee he bears out Dak either.

Acting like top QBs only come out once a decade or that you only pull the trigger if it is a sure thing is not how it works.

I'm glad you agree that we need to bring in competition.