Adrian Peterson wants to break Emmitt Smith's rushing record

[Muhast]

To do it by 2017, he needs to average 1900 a year for 5 years. Not going to happen. He is incredible but 1900 a year for 5 years? No way.

 

[boscokt]

Not a chance

 

[Avery]

If anyone can break Emmitt's record, he deserves it, but I don't see him posting 2,000 yard rushing seasons the next five years. You have to remember the context of this interview was him setting a goal for himself that is extremely lofty, but that's how goals should be.

He's a beast, but his upright running style is still statistically shown to be more injury-prone. His case isn't helped by having Ponder as his QB as I think teams will continue to make the Vikings beat them through the air and stack the box whenever possible. That didn't really slow him down last season, but I'm not sure he'll be able reproduce such a great season.

 

[JohnsKey19]

It's unlikely but he's one of those rare athletes that i can see somehow getting there one day.

 

[Doomsday101]

Its possible, but if it does happen I think it would take him another year or two than what he projects.
Adrian is a beast, maybe the best pure RB ever IMO, but he has a lot of work to do before he will even be close to rushing record. Emmitt had many special qualities (most notably longevity and consistency) and a ton of talent around him which AP obviously doesn't have the benefit of.
Personally I don't think the record will be broken by AP (this is coming from a guy who would likely take AP over anyone with 1 year to win a SB). It just requires too many things going right for him in the next 5-7 years to make it happen.

I don't think Adrian should take any criticism for this projection. He was just being a good sport an answering the question.

I think it will hard for him to do it but I don't blame him or any player of setting a loafty goal such as Emmitt record. After all as a rookie Emmitt goal was to break the record of Peyton and he did.

 

[joseephuss]

A lot of it has to do with longevity and teams willing to put up with average to below average performance well into a RB's twilight years.

Emmitt is a good example of this -- over his last 5 years (2000 - 2004) in the league he averaged:

878 yards rushing
5.6 TDs
3.8 ypc

Pretty terrible numbers for a half of decade.

Peterson will have to find a team that is willing to accept (like the Cardinals did for Emmitt) an aging veteran RB and be in a odd position that they can't field a competent backup.

I agree with your premise, but your stats are a bit misleading. Emmitt had a horrible 2003 due to missing games with an injury. That throws his averages over that span down. Take out that season and he averaged 1034 yards per season on some pretty bad teams. Still not worth what he was being paid, but not as bad as you make it out to be.

Peterson is only 107 yards off of Emmitt's pace after 6 seasons. He is 1311 yards off of Emmitt's pace at age 27.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

Peterson is probably the last RB ever with a chance to best Emmitt's rushing record. With the league going pass happy and running back by commitee the norm, I doubt we see many RBs challenge the record looking forward.

Now, if the league goes to 18 games/season soon, he may have an even more legit shot.

 

[Doomsday101]

Peterson is probably the last RB ever with a chance to best Emmitt's rushing record. With the league going pass happy and running back by commitee the norm, I doubt we see many RBs challenge the record looking forward.

Now, if the league goes to 18 games/season soon, he may have an even more legit shot.

I don't know, as defense look for the smaller quicker guys and play more nickel and dime defense offense will adjust by using the running game. As Belicheck talked about last year with his Pats team. Heck if I go into a game and defense as sitting in nickle and dime why would I not counter that with run?

 

[cowboys2233]

It's unlikely but he's one of those rare athletes that i can see somehow getting there one day.

But so much is dependent on other things, regardless of how special the athlete is. Yes, AP is one of those few that stand out athletically from a league filled with incredible athletes. Randy Moss, Bo Jackson, etc. type players. Luck and circumstance play a huge role though. Bo Jackson had the athleticism, but none of the luck.

 

[dstovall5]

If he doesn't get any more major injuries in his career then I'd say he'll end up beating E.Smith's record, though probably around 2018 or 2019. All he has to do is average 1355 yards for the next 7 years and he'll get the record. A.P hasn't shown any signs of slowing down, if anything he's shown signs of improvement over the last year, and that's after a major ACL injury.

This is what he has to do for the next 7 years to get the record -

2013 1700
2014 1500
2015 1450
2016 1450
2017 1350
2018 1250
2019 850

I think those are very reasonable statistics for A.P to achieve, he has a lot better chance to do it then some of you think, though I understand most here don't wont him to get it because after all it's E.Smith's record.
I personally think he has a very good chance barring injuries. The reason why I think he'll get it is because he will have 2-3 more years around 1700 yards, and those alone will average out his bad years late in his career.

 

[hornitosmonster]

It is a long shot for him to do it. Right now it isn't even a concern

 

[Doomsday101]

But so much is dependent on other things, regardless of how special the athlete is. Yes, AP is one of those few that stand out athletically from a league filled with incredible athletes. Randy Moss, Bo Jackson, etc. type players. Luck and circumstance play a huge role though. Bo Jackson had the athleticism, but none of the luck.

True, being the all time leading rush of course takes great talent but it is a record of longivity as well. In Emmitt 15 year career he played at least 15 games a season in 12 of those seasons

 

[conner01]

AP is a great player but the odds are very hard against him. the key to breaking this record is staying healthy, consistancy and longevity. he would have to be productive well into his 30's

 

[panchucko]

I actually thought Curtis Martin had a chance, but he dropped off the planet after his magical season.
As it happens to most running backs injuries catch up.

 

[Teague31]

Won't happen

 

[jzcowboy]

Just relax everybody, he was saying it jokingly

 

[khiladi]

My favorite player in the NFL, outside of a Cowboy. The guy is a beast and probably the most exciting individual player to watch. And, as is evidenced by last year's return, truly one of a kind. If he breaks it, I won't be upset in anyway.

 

[CowboysLover1234]

If Emmitt was playing for another team instead of the Cowboys, you all would be saying "It will happen"

 

[khiladi]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...terson-calls-bs-on-complaints-of-nfl-pad-rule

 

[khiladi]