All roads lead to Gallup - the WR study

[TwoDeep3]

It's not a secret that Dallas is remaking the WR group, and this off-season was just the first step in that shuffle.

Here are some observations as we break down the position for this season and moving forward:

1. Gallup will get every and any opportunity to be a big piece of the puzzle.
2. So will Noah Brown.
3. Every other WR on the roster is playing for a job in 2019.
4. All things being equal, Wilson could get many opportunities, too.

Now, these observations aren't exactly earth-shattering, but let's dig into the logic:

Williams isn't going anywhere this season because releasing him creates more dead money that it's worth to just keep him. And he's shown that he can be a useful WR in this league, even if he hasn't earned his salary. Next season we can save 2.5M by releasing him, so if he's not a clear-cut starter by next season, he's gone. But he may just hang on to his roster spot for another season for reasons that I'm about to get into.

Hurns is essentially on a one-year prove-it deal. Unless he's our best receiver - or at least one of the obvious starters - he can be cut next season and save us $5M, with only $1M in dead money.

Beasley, Austin and Thompson only have one year left on their deals. So they are basically rentals right now (maybe rent-to-own if we decide down the line, but that's TBD).

That leaves Noah Brown and the two draft picks, Gallup and Wilson, (Lenoir is a wildcard).

So don't be surprised that if it's at all close in training camp, if we see more Brown and Gallup than even Hurns. I don't necessarily expect that to happen, but Brown, Gallup and Wilson have a much bigger chance of being a part of the long-term WR solution than Hurns does. Just by the simple economics of it.

That brings us back to Williams. It wouldn't shock me if going into 2019 we end up keeping Williams. I expect him and Hurns to be essentially competing with each other for a job, this year and next. Personally, I think Hurns might be the better receiver, but I'm not 100% certain of that, either. But with the squad likely turning over the position more next off-season, Williams could be a veteran that sticks. That's kind of a scary proposition for a guy who doesn't like to catch with his hands and is dumb enough to get drunk and wreck his Lambo, then blame it on a former college teammate.

But we probably shouldn't get too attached to Hurns, Austin and Thompson. And even Beasley is going to have to bounce back in a big way this season to have any chance of getting another contract.

I was looking forward to your comments on Gallup, but the title was a tease. Bummer.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

I was looking forward to your comments on Gallup, but the title was a tease. Bummer.

Sorry, I have no authentic observations about Gallup that haven't been expressed already. I think he's going to be a solid NFL WR. Has the potential to be a borderline 1,000-yd guy. My take is he is going to be given every opportunity this year to contribute as a rookie, when that's not always the case for WRs in this league. If for no other reason than the other WRs aren't noticeably better and he is probably going to be here longer than any of them.

 

[Jumbo075]

Terrance Williams -

• 2013 - took the starting job away from $56M receiver Miles Austin
• 2014 - scored 8 TD's and was a very solid #2 WR
• 2015 - had his best statistical season with Dez Bryant injured, but many were disappointed that he was unable to take on the #1 WR role. Although it was his best year, many fans turned on him because he wasn't able to carry the load Dez carried.
• 2016 - Adjusted to new QB. regressed to similar performance of 2nd season, but with fewer TD's. Zeke and Dak were scoring more on runs, so overall the receiving TD's were down from when Romo was QB.
• 2017 - Gave the Cowboys a home town discount to stay in Dallas rather than test the free agent market. The entire receiving corps regressed, and even Dak's performance in the 2nd half of the season was poor. Hard to know if it was Williams or Dak, or the entire team.

Over 5 years, Williams has never missed a game. With the Cowboys focused on being a run-first team, his downfield blocking ability has been one of the key reasons for his value to Dallas, even if fans don't see it show up on the stat sheet. While he's not a superstar, he's a reliable steady #2 receiver, who has very similar statistics to Alan Hurns for a lot less money. People expecting Hurns to be a big improvement on Williams are going to be disappointed.

Hurns - 4 seasons, missed 12 games, 42 starts, 189 receptions, 2669 yards, 14.1 ypc, 21 TD's
Williams - 5 seasons, 0 missed games, 66 starts, 230 receptions, 3359 yards, 14.6 ypc, 20 TD's

Per game stats
Hurns - 52 games played, 3.6 rpg, 51 ypg, 2.4 ppg - availability 81%
Williams - 80 games played, 2.9 rpg, 42 ypg, 1.5 ppg - availability 100%

Projected 2018 season totals
Hurns - 47 catches, 661 yards, 5 TD's, cost - $2.5M Signing Bonus + $3M salary + $162,500 roster bonus (13 games played) = $5,662,500
Williams - 46 catches, 672 yards, 4 TD's, cost - $3.5M salary (16 games played) = $3,500,000

Scheduled 2019 compensation
Hurns - $6.3M
Williams - $3.5M

I, for one, am not expecting Hurns to outplay Williams, and beat him out of a job. In fact, I'll be surprised if Hurns is a Cowboy next year. I look at Hurns as a bridge from Bryant to Gallup - if Gallup becomes what the Cowboys hope he'll be. Otherwise, the Cowboys will be looking at spending a high draft pick in 2019 on another WR.

The Cowboys future hope at WR is in their recent draft picks, and hoping Cole Beasley has a big bounce back year. The wildcard is Tavon Austin, but he's on a kick-the-tires contract, like Deonte Thompson. And I wouldn't count out Lance Lenoir who has spent a year honing his body and his craft.

Right now, the Cowboys WR corps looks like a whole lot of nothing. It's up to the rookies and recent draft picks to prove that wrong. Austin, Hurns, and Thompson are all rentals. Williams and Beasley need to re-establish their worth after a down year. Brown, Gallup, Wilson, and even Lenoir are the players I will be watching closely in training camp.

P.S. Just for grins and giggles, here are Alvin Harper's first 5 year stats (to compare to Williams), who is another #2 receiver that Williams compares well against.

Alvin Harper - 5 seasons, 4 missed games, 59 starts, 170 receptions, 3,119 yards, 18.3 ypc, 20 TD's', 76 games played, 2.2 rpg, 41 ypg, 1.6 ppg - availability 95%

 

[JBond]

It's not a secret that Dallas is remaking the WR group, and this off-season was just the first step in that shuffle.

Here are some observations as we break down the position for this season and moving forward:

1. Gallup will get every and any opportunity to be a big piece of the puzzle.
2. So will Noah Brown.
3. Every other WR on the roster is playing for a job in 2019.
4. All things being equal, Wilson could get many opportunities, too.

Now, these observations aren't exactly earth-shattering, but let's dig into the logic:

Williams isn't going anywhere this season because releasing him creates more dead money that it's worth to just keep him. And he's shown that he can be a useful WR in this league, even if he hasn't earned his salary. Next season we can save 2.5M by releasing him, so if he's not a clear-cut starter by next season, he's gone. But he may just hang on to his roster spot for another season for reasons that I'm about to get into.

Hurns is essentially on a one-year prove-it deal. Unless he's our best receiver - or at least one of the obvious starters - he can be cut next season and save us $5M, with only $1M in dead money.

Beasley, Austin and Thompson only have one year left on their deals. So they are basically rentals right now (maybe rent-to-own if we decide down the line, but that's TBD).

That leaves Noah Brown and the two draft picks, Gallup and Wilson, (Lenoir is a wildcard).

So don't be surprised that if it's at all close in training camp, if we see more Brown and Gallup than even Hurns. I don't necessarily expect that to happen, but Brown, Gallup and Wilson have a much bigger chance of being a part of the long-term WR solution than Hurns does. Just by the simple economics of it.

That brings us back to Williams. It wouldn't shock me if going into 2019 we end up keeping Williams. I expect him and Hurns to be essentially competing with each other for a job, this year and next. Personally, I think Hurns might be the better receiver, but I'm not 100% certain of that, either. But with the squad likely turning over the position more next off-season, Williams could be a veteran that sticks. That's kind of a scary proposition for a guy who doesn't like to catch with his hands and is dumb enough to get drunk and wreck his Lambo, then blame it on a former college teammate.

But we probably shouldn't get too attached to Hurns, Austin and Thompson. And even Beasley is going to have to bounce back in a big way this season to have any chance of getting another contract.

There is nothing wrong with Beasley's game. The coaches need to bounce back and respond quicker to schemes that effectively eliminated Beasley as a weapon.