Always draft BPA but how do you hope the draft falls?

[DanA]

BPA is a tier concept after about the top 20 picks in the draft and definitely in the 2nd round and later.

I call it near-BPA.

If they have multiple players all rated within about 10 spots of each other available at #58, then they obviously should use need/fit to make the pick.

If a player they have rated as a 1st round pick makes it to #58, then need should take a back seat to talent.

It is very rare a team drafts a player that ends up being very good to great and regrets picking that player.

The Cowboys passed on RB LeSean McCoy in 2009 because they had Felix and Barber. McCoy was available at the Cowboys 2nd round pick and he was the only available player they had rated as a 1st round pick. The Cowboys entire draft class that year ended up with minimal value as compared to McCoy.

Also drafting with an assumption that a player picked at #58 or lower will be a starter as a rookie is a fail waiting to happen.

I would be happy with an OT at #58. The Cowboys can win with the TEs on the roster would be doomed if Tyron missed the season.

RB Alvin Kamara in the 3rd round of the 2017 draft would be a nice player to have on the roster, especially in 2017 when Zeke was suspended.

What if the Cowboys had an earlier pick in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft and had drafted LB Darius Leonard after drafting Vander Esch in the 1st?

• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (2018)
• AP First Team All-Pro (2018)
• 2x AFC Defensive Player of the Week (Week 2, 2018; Week 17, 2018)
• AFC Defensive Player of the Month (December 2018)
• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Month (September

I agree with 90% of what you're saying here but it's not entirely realistic because you don't know who develops into a good player and who doesn't, and you aren't considering how much of development comes from opportunity, nor the difference in value for a starter compared to backup.

Take those awards you listed for Leonard. Does he win them at Dallas? I don't think he does. The breakdown of 2018 defensive snaps for Dallas LB's:
Smith: 976 snaps
LVE: 784 snaps
Wilson: 286 snaps
Lee: 220 snaps
Thomas: 58 snaps

Think about how that goes for Leonard. Lee and Smith start the season, Lee gets injured and LVE as the 1st round pick probably comes in. So the rookie of the year, if drafted by Dallas, might have been an ST guy that played 250 snaps for the season on defense. And how much of Leonards development came from getting 1st team snaps, how much of his motivation came from being a starter, not having to grind it out as a backup to the backup.

And the Kamara example. The best case realistic scenario at the time of the draft for Kamara is that he develops to an All-Pro caliber RB backing up to Zeke for four years. The best case scenario for Awuzie is he's an All-Pro corner that immediate starts. The value of a backup RB is nowhere near a starting corner no matter how good he is. Rod Smith played 150 offensive snaps this year. Sure we get to reduce the load on Zeke and utilize Kamara more, but the upside you get from a starter, the opportunity they get to develop, means that if it's at all close on your board (when you don't know) you have to draft the position of need because the payoff is greater. Plus the opportunity to develop, them getting utilized breeds motivation and improves your chances of hitting.

 

[xwalker]

O

I agree with 90% of what you're saying here but it's not entirely realistic because you don't know who develops into a good player and who doesn't, and you aren't considering how much of development comes from opportunity, nor the difference in value for a starter compared to backup.

Take those awards you listed for Leonard. Does he win them at Dallas? I don't think he does. The breakdown of 2018 defensive snaps for Dallas LB's:
Smith: 976 snaps
LVE: 784 snaps
Wilson: 286 snaps
Lee: 220 snaps
Thomas: 58 snaps

Think about how that goes for Leonard. Lee and Smith start the season, Lee gets injured and LVE as the 1st round pick probably comes in. So the rookie of the year, if drafted by Dallas, might have been an ST guy that played 250 snaps for the season on defense. And how much of Leonards development came from getting 1st team snaps, how much of his motivation came from being a starter, not having to grind it out as a backup to the backup.

And the Kamara example. The best case realistic scenario at the time of the draft for Kamara is that he develops to an All-Pro caliber RB backing up to Zeke for four years. The best case scenario for Awuzie is he's an All-Pro corner that immediate starts. The value of a backup RB is nowhere near a starting corner no matter how good he is. Rod Smith played 150 offensive snaps this year. Sure we get to reduce the load on Zeke and utilize Kamara more, but the upside you get from a starter, the opportunity they get to develop, means that if it's at all close on your board (when you don't know) you have to draft the position of need because the payoff is greater. Plus the opportunity to develop, them getting utilized breeds motivation and improves your chances of hitting.

Kamara 3rd round. Awuzie 2nd round.

Fans want to approach the draft as if all picks work out OK.

Look back at drafts from 2015 and earlier (long enough to eliminate unknowns for an easier comparison).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Cowboys_draft_history

How many of those drafts would 2nd and 3rd round picks with success like Leonard and Kamara not be a good options regardless of position?

In what drafts and rounds would great players (non-QBs) not be utilized within their first two seasons considering the turnover at positions.

 

[DanA]

O


Kamara 3rd round. Awuzie 2nd round.

Fans want to approach the draft as if all picks work out OK.

Look back at drafts from 2015 and earlier (long enough to eliminate unknowns for an easier comparison).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Cowboys_draft_history

How many of those drafts would 2nd and 3rd round picks with success like Leonard and Kamara not be a good options regardless of position?

In what drafts and rounds would great players (non-QBs) not be utilized within their first two seasons considering the turnover at positions.

Sorry, but if I am the Giants, I'm not drafting a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round. That just an easy decision.

And Kamara went pick 67 while Awuzue went pick 60, so it was pretty close while our 3rd round pick was 91. We'd have had to use a future pick to trade up and get Kamara.

And sure, if you know in advance they'll be a great player then yeah it's an easy decision. But you don't know they're a great player
and if they don't get an opportunity to develop, they may not become the same great player. Those are factors that should be considered and factored in when shifting players up and down the board. It should not be a pure player evaluation, needs and opportunities matter.

 

[kskboys]

Not taking BPA is the fastest way to fail at drafting.

Taking BPA is the quickest way to fail at building a super bowl contending.

 

[Hardline]

Taking BPA is the quickest way to fail at building a super bowl contending.

Tell that to the Patriots.

 

[xwalker]

Sorry, but if I am the Giants, I'm not drafting a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round. That just an easy decision.

And Kamara went pick 67 while Awuzue went pick 60, so it was pretty close while our 3rd round pick was 91. We'd have had to use a future pick to trade up and get Kamara.

And sure, if you know in advance they'll be a great player then yeah it's an easy decision. But you don't know they're a great player
and if they don't get an opportunity to develop, they may not become the same great player. Those are factors that should be considered and factored in when shifting players up and down the board. It should not be a pure player evaluation, needs and opportunities matter.

Again, looking back how often would a dynamic draft pick not have gotten an opportunity with his 1st two years with the Cowboys?

WR
Only needed to beat out TWill for several years.

TE
They tried to give MartyB opportunities even With Witten here but MB goofed around too much.

RB
The team is doomed if Zeke can't play.

OG
Have they had two OGs so good that neither could be challenged. They had a few games where either Leary or La'el didn't play but each missed major time with injuries showing that having some depth was critical.

OT
When couldn't they have used a talented backup pushing the RT?

OC
Almost all OCs are also OGs.

DE
They've never had enough pass rushers.

DT
They almost always depend on some street free agents as the 4th DT at points during the season.

LB
This past season was the best they've been at the top 2 positions but the depth was shaky with Lee and Joe Thomas out much of the season.

CB
Best depth this past season but if a ball hawk type ended up on the roster he would get opportunities and if he was really good it would save huge cap space by not re-signing Byron Jones after this season.

Safety
Any season since early years Roy Williams and Woodson were together could have used a quality Safety.

Even in 1994 Larry Allen might have seemed like a luxury after having the very best OL in 92 and 93 but they ended up short handed on the OL during LA's rookie season.

 

[DanA]

Again, looking back how often would a dynamic draft pick not have gotten an opportunity with his 1st two years with the Cowboys?

WR
Only needed to beat out TWill for several years.

TE
They tried to give MartyB opportunities even With Witten here but MB goofed around too much.

RB
The team is doomed if Zeke can't play.

OG
Have they had two OGs so good that neither could be challenged. They had a few games where either Leary or La'el didn't play but each missed major time with injuries showing that having some depth was critical.

OT
When couldn't they have used a talented backup pushing the RT?

OC
Almost all OCs are also OGs.

DE
They've never had enough pass rushers.

DT
They almost always depend on some street free agents as the 4th DT at points during the season.

LB
This past season was the best they've been at the top 2 positions but the depth was shaky with Lee and Joe Thomas out much of the season.

CB
Best depth this past season but if a ball hawk type ended up on the roster he would get opportunities and if he was really good it would save huge cap space by not re-signing Byron Jones after this season.

Safety
Any season since early years Roy Williams and Woodson were together could have used a quality Safety.

Even in 1994 Larry Allen might have seemed like a luxury after having the very best OL in 92 and 93 but they ended up short handed on the OL during LA's rookie season.

It happens, LT was San Diego's running back and they found Sproles. He's pretty dynamic isn't he, it took until his 4th year to get properly utilized because LT was so dominant. How would it be different with Zeke? And you're running on the assumption that you know a certain player will turn out better. That's not ever going to be the case. IMO teams should move up and down the draft to create a situation where the best player on the board is a position of need. Don't just sit there and take the best player available, you might not be able to use him.

 

[kskboys]

Tell that to the Patriots.

Pats do the exact opposite of BPA.

 

[cnuball21]

Sorry, but if I am the Giants, I'm not drafting a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round. That just an easy decision.

And Kamara went pick 67 while Awuzue went pick 60, so it was pretty close while our 3rd round pick was 91. We'd have had to use a future pick to trade up and get Kamara.

And sure, if you know in advance they'll be a great player then yeah it's an easy decision. But you don't know they're a great player
and if they don't get an opportunity to develop, they may not become the same great player. Those are factors that should be considered and factored in when shifting players up and down the board. It should not be a pure player evaluation, needs and opportunities matter.

Pats do the exact opposite of BPA.[/QUOTE

Need plays a big factor in how a board is built. Not sure why that’s so crazy to some fans.

 

[Hardline]

Pats do the exact opposite of BPA.

I looked at their last 5 years of drafting. The players they selected were around the BPA area as they were seen before the draft.

 

[Sandyf]

Taco had bust written all over him when the pick was made.

The same thing could and was said about Demarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, Jaylon Smith and also about Williams this year. Willing to see what Taco brings in 2019 before I call him a bust. McClay hasn't been wrong about 1st/2nd round picks in quite a while.

 

[Verdict]

The same thing could and was said about Demarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, Jaylon Smith and also about Williams this year. Willing to see what Taco brings in 2019 before I call him a bust. McClay hasn't been wrong about 1st/2nd round picks in quite a while.

Let's hope he is right again. But so far Taco is a bust.

 

[kskboys]

I looked at their last 5 years of drafting. The players they selected were around the BPA area as they were seen before the draft.

They weren't.

Grabbed a year at random. 2016:

No 1st
2) Cyrus Jones: Rated 4th
3) Joe Thuney: Rated UFA
3) Jacoby Brissett: Rated 4th
3) Vincent Valentine: Rated UFA
4) Malcolm Mitchell: Rated 4th/5th

Yes, you can find many different ratings for any individual player. However, NE is is known for the exact opposite of BPA, taking much later ranked players high in the draft. Do they do it all the time? NE doesn't do anything all the time. They could care less about player rankings. That's fan stuff. They take players at positions they need that they think they can make players out of.

That's the reason it's impossible that they take BPA, they don't pay attention to such stuff.

Highest pick in 2017 was Derek Rivers in the 3rd, and he was rated there. There were higher rated players available, but they needed to keep fixing the DE position, so they took a 3rd round project at a position of need.

2018:

1st: Isaiah Wynn/Sony Michell: Wynn went where he was rated. Michell was rated in the 2nd, but they needed an every down RB so they grabbed the best one left at a position of need.
2nd: Duke Dawson: Rated 3rd

Drafting BPA is a myth. No team is foolish enough to draft using that strategy alone.

 

[kskboys]

Let's hope he is right again. But so far Taco is a bust.

Sort of. However, Taco is the type of player who is going to take a while to develop. This was a known fact.

 

[Hardline]

They weren't.

Grabbed a year at random. 2016:

No 1st
2) Cyrus Jones: Rated 4th
3) Joe Thuney: Rated UFA
3) Jacoby Brissett: Rated 4th
3) Vincent Valentine: Rated UFA
4) Malcolm Mitchell: Rated 4th/5th

Yes, you can find many different ratings for any individual player. However, NE is is known for the exact opposite of BPA, taking much later ranked players high in the draft. Do they do it all the time? NE doesn't do anything all the time. They could care less about player rankings. That's fan stuff. They take players at positions they need that they think they can make players out of.

That's the reason it's impossible that they take BPA, they don't pay attention to such stuff.

Highest pick in 2017 was Derek Rivers in the 3rd, and he was rated there. There were higher rated players available, but they needed to keep fixing the DE position, so they took a 3rd round project at a position of need.

2018:

1st: Isaiah Wynn/Sony Michell: Wynn went where he was rated. Michell was rated in the 2nd, but they needed an every down RB so they grabbed the best one left at a position of need.
2nd: Duke Dawson: Rated 3rd

Drafting BPA is a myth. No team is foolish enough to draft using that strategy alone.

Drafting BPA is not a myth. It's what the most successful teams do. You NEVER take a lesser player. If you want that lesser player you trade down.
I looked at the last five years of the Patriots draft classes and yes. Most players taken were around BPA when they were selected.
You simply don't reach in the first two or possibly three rounds
Now once you get to the later rounds its no big deal if you are looking for depth or just rolling the dice on players who dropped for some reason or injured players that should've gone higher

 

[kskboys]

Drafting BPA is not a myth. It's what the most successful teams do. You NEVER take a lesser player. If you want that lesser player you trade down.
I looked at the last five years of the Patriots draft classes and yes. Most players taken were around BPA when they were selected.
You simply don't reach in the first two or possibly three rounds
Now once you get to the later rounds its no big deal if you are looking for depth.

No, they weren't. Fans have this little thing where they hear something off TV and repeat it. This is one of those little cutesies.

I showed you the players, and many were obviously not BPA. I mean, several weren't close. Cyrus Jones, Vincent Valentine, Brissett, Michell, Duke Dawson. Hardline, these guys were not even close to BPA. Thuney was rated as a UFA.

I think you might want to rethink this.

 

[Hardline]

No, they weren't. Fans have this little thing where they hear something off TV and repeat it. This is one of those little cutesies.

I showed you the players, and many were obviously not BPA. I mean, several weren't close. Cyrus Jones, Vincent Valentine, Brissett, Michell, Duke Dawson. Hardline, these guys were not even close to BPA. Thuney was rated as a UFA.

I think you might want to rethink this.

Except I'm not repeating what I heard on TV. I am literally saying what most NFL people say about drafting . I know you looked at a couple of drafts for the Patriots . When I say they drafted pretty close to BPA I'm talking about the early rounds .

 

[kskboys]

Except I'm not repeating what I heard on TV. I am literally saying what most NFL people say about drafting . I know you looked at a couple of drafts for the Patriots . When I say they drafted pretty close to BPA I'm talking about the early rounds .

Those were the early rounds. I didn't leave anything out.

I know everyone talks about BPA. But, that's a fan term.

I don't hear a ton of NFL people claim teams should draft strictly BPA. Do they really say that?

 

[Verdict]

Sort of. However, Taco is the type of player who is going to take a while to develop. This was a known fact.

Yeah we should have moved up and drafted him in the top 10. That would have made Taco a much better player for us.