...a place where Basketball and Baseball rule the airwaves and dominate sports television shows. For someone who was born and raised a football fan and football only, I feel as though it is a real life version of the television show "Lost." As an aside, I really don't like that show, but my wife is a fan, so I'm familiar with the premise...and right now being a diehard Dallas Cowboys fan feels exactly like that...lost.
The cowboyszone is an oasis, but slake your thirst as much as you like at the zone-trough, you will always find your thirst still there at the end of the day. There is nothing like live-action games that actually mean something to scratch the 7 month itch without football. This year that game happens on September 11th, a day before I turn 38, against the team I have learned to hate more than any other NFCE foe: The New York Football Giants. I really hate when the media refers to them like that...but I digress.
Before I move forward, I think we as a fanship should be able to agree on a few things:
1. With a healthy Romo, this team is closer to the 12 & 4 team of 2014 than the 4 & 12 team of 2015.
2. Ramsey is not Ed Reed. Had he been, I might understand the Zeke hate…in fact, I would have been very torn between Zeke and Ramsey. But since Ramsey is perhaps a better version of Byron Jones, Zeke was the obvious pick. You don’t have to agree, but you do eventually need to get over it.
3. Drafting Jaylin Smith was the equivalent of trading a 2016 2nd round pick for a high 2017 1st round pick. Sure, it was a gamble, but so is every other player drafted in any given year in one way or another.
Despite this dark period, I have had several topics circling the drain of my head. Rather than throw out a bunch of little threads where it becomes necessary to move back and forth between topics, which I do not have time for, I figured I would just mash them up and present them here.
How Stats Lie ~
Quite simply, stats lie because it cannot account for situational football, it does not consider other talent on the same team that the coach also likes to give the ball to, and the data being compiled by various teams are against varied competition and therefore cannot be in any way considered conclusive. To make conclusions using stats and stats alone, without the benefit of context, will likely lead you far and away from reality and an effective strategy.
For example, if coaches looked at stats and stats alone, the running game would systematically disappear, because all the stats suggest you win games by passing the ball and passing the ball alone. Of course, anyone who has watched a good amount of football understands that passing and running are symbiotic. You really can’t have an effective one without a decent other. Without the presence of a decent run game, playaction and draws would be useless devices in the game.
If teams decided to do away with the running back position, you would see the opposing defense bring in 11 corners to stand on the line at the first down marker and swarm all of the passing lanes as the play progresses. For visual reference, think back to playground football, where handing off the ball is only done if a team has a big kid no one can tackle. For the most part, the game played in the park is about passing the ball and therefore conventional pro-style formations are rarely if ever used.
I’m not trying to suggest that stats are useless; but without the benefit of context, stats can be very misleading.
Aaron Levenstein said it best: Staticstics are like bikinis, what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.
Therefore, while I expect big things from Zeke, to suggest it was a wasted pick simply because he doesn’t match or improve upon the yards from scrimmage in one season Demarco did two years ago is a very misguided assertion. If the Cowboys are smart, they will limit his touches as compared to what they did to Demarco, to keep him fresh throughout the season and more importantly into the postseason.
Why Players Bust ~
The draft is a crap shoot; an accelerated version of craps, where the odds of rolling 7 or 11 decrease the further you get from your first roll. But what makes it such a gamble?
Players in the first round are rarely if ever described as projects; these are the guys you want to start from day 1. And yet, every year, several players are dubbed bust despite their draft pedigree. It’s not like they of a sudden forgot how to play the game and/or their position. So what happened?
The simple answer is (often times) money. Many of these players go from having nothing to everything. Some might say, “well, I see what you’re saying, but if I of a sudden was rich, I’d do everything I could to keep it!”
That make sense, only there is one problem with saying that now. The poor you is saying that. The rich you will likely have completely different plans; afterall, you can’t take it with you, so you may as well enjoy it while you have it, right? And I’m afraid, for many of these early 20 year old degenerates, that is the mantra they adopt until the Turk comes calling asking for their playbook and to meet the coach in their office.
For some, that is all the slap upside the head they need to figure it out and take advantage of their second chance should it come. Manziel, on the other hand, may never snap out of it for one simple reason: daddy’s rich and he doesn’t have to keep on taking those hits to live better than 90% of the people in the world, so why should he?
So, at the end of the day, when GM’s/and/or team personnel interview these players, the first question they should be asking, once they’ve established a player can play and possibly flourish in their scheme, is what is the first thing they are going to buy after they cash that first check? If they starting listing off all the things they are going to buy themselves, you may want to reconsider them in the next round from whatever round they are being projected. If they are going to take care of their family (e.g. buy mom a house and a car, take care of their kids/wife/girlfriend, family etc) this is a guy you want on your team. Why? Because his performance is about more than him and what it does for him; everything he does is about his family and what he can do for them. This guy is going to work hard at his craft because in his mind that is his only option. The guy that plays for himself and only himself will let himself down.
Granted, it’s not an exact science; but I feel pretty confident.
RKG ~
Since the day Garrett first coined the phrase, mediots, talking-heads, and (unfortunately) zoners alike have truly enjoyed grabbing Garrett by the metaphorical scruff of the neck and rubbing his nose into the acquired players that aren’t choirboys/boy scouts. Part of the issue here is the difference between his definition of RKG and that of everyone else. For many, RKG mean’s a guy who in his spare time rescue puppies and kittens and is constantly on the look-out for old ladies to assist across the street. Just so you know, though, that’s not Garrett definition at all…in fact, the two aren’t even close.
Garrett’s definition is more about the player on the field, the work the player is willing to put in off the field to perfect his craft, and what kind of teammate is said player. Does he help those around him to get better or is he a distraction. Now on that last point, many will likely scream, “but he has brought in distractions.” Fair point. But the problem with that is this consideration: just because a player is not an RKG now, he could become one. And it is that point coupled with cap-induced limitations that makes teams take chances on guys like Hardy. Sometimes it only takes being unceremoniously released from the team that drafted you to finally get it. Others, require more time to wrap their head around what they need to do to stay in the league. And since an organization cannot predict how a player is going to mix with the team, the only thing they can do is throw them in there and hope it works out. Sometimes it does. Other times it doesn’t, as we all saw with Hardy. But if you want an organization that will turn over any stone to find productive players, you will have to deal with the occasional knucklehead.
Thoughts?
