Annual caution that college highlight films can cause PCD

[Bobhaze]

Buyer beware: College highlight films of most NFL prospects for the draft are almost always overrated. Proceed with caution. In fact many highlight films this team of year lead to the dreaded offseason affliction known as “Pet Cat Disease”.

What’s “Pet Cat Disease, or “PCD”? It’s the annual over-fixation at draft time on a prospect whose highlight film shows a QB hitting wide open receivers while under no pressure against a team like William and Mary College, featuring a defense with 11 guys not headed to the NFL. Most college players can look look really good for about 5-10 plays a game. But they usually play 50-70 plays a game, meaning only about 10-20% of the time are they looking like they’re in “beast mode”.

Highlight films have their place and purpose. But it’s worth noting some key indicators:

• Who is the opponent in the film? If it’s Ohio State whipping up on the Citadel, tap the brakes.
• If it’s a QB or WR in the highlight, you may be witnessing a coverage meltdown, not a spectacular play. Many highlights are actually defensive lapses which skew what you see.
• If it’s a lineman, consider who they’re “pancaking” in a highlight. If an OT is crushing a 180 lb CB from Vanderbilt on a screen pass, be aware.

My point is, don’t just believe a college highlight film at face value. For some perspective, watch a high school highlight film and remember 97% of the kids in the film will never play college football. Then apply that formula to a college film.

Avoid “PCD”!

 

[Jake]

I remember people posting Dalton highlight videos and swooning over him. I found one of all his picks and he looked like trash. Obviously, the truth is somewhere in between.

April is PCD Season, the time for fantasies of Cowboys greatness courtesy of pet cats filling holes. Let us indulge, but try to keep it in perspective.

 

[Vinnie2u]

I don't trust the opinions of YouTube Scouts...

 

[aikemirv]

Unfortunately, even a blind squirrel finds a nut and we have a lot of blind squirrels on here that catch that nut and talk about it for years

 

[blueblood70]

Buyer beware: College highlight films of most NFL prospects for the draft are almost always overrated. Proceed with caution. In fact many highlight films this team of year lead to the dreaded offseason affliction known as “Pet Cat Disease”.

What’s “Pet Cat Disease, or “PCD”? It’s the annual over-fixation at draft time on a prospect whose highlight film shows a QB hitting wide open receivers while under no pressure against a team like William and Mary College, featuring a defense with 11 guys not headed to the NFL. Most college players can look look really good for about 5-10 plays a game. But they usually play 50-70 plays a game, meaning only about 10-20% of the time are they looking like they’re in “beast mode”.

Highlight films have their place and purpose. But it’s worth noting some key indicators:

• Who is the opponent in the film? If it’s Ohio State whipping up on the Citadel, tap the brakes.
• If it’s a QB or WR in the highlight, you may be witnessing a coverage meltdown, not a spectacular play. Many highlights are actually defensive lapses which skew what you see.
• If it’s a lineman, consider who they’re “pancaking” in a highlight. If an OT is crushing a 180 lb CB from Vanderbilt on a screen pass, be aware.

My point is, don’t just believe a college highlight film at face value. For some perspective, watch a high school highlight film and remember 97% of the kids in the film will never play college football. Then apply that formula to a college film.

Avoid “PCD”!

without a combine this is going to be far worse year for targeting player and only thing most scouts have is film..the opt out players makes it twice as tough..theres going to be far more1st round busts then in any past years IMHO..

 

[aikemirv]

without a combine this is going to be far worse year for targeting player and only thing most scouts have is film..the opt out players makes it twice as tough..theres going to be far more1st round busts then in any past years IMHO..

I think the combine creates more busts than not having one - underwear olympics takes GM's down the wrong path .

 

[Bobhaze]

without a combine this is going to be far worse year for targeting player and only thing most scouts have is film..the opt out players makes it twice as tough..theres going to be far more1st round busts then in any past years IMHO..

I think the combine creates more busts than not having one - underwear olympics takes GM's down the wrong path .

You both may be right. Film and non-football related skill assessments can skew a player’s value. The 40 yard dash is overrated. There are some really fast guys out there that can’t play football.

 

[blueblood70]

I think the combine creates more busts than not having one - underwear olympics takes GM's down the wrong path .

im saying its one less place to actually see and talk to player in person..the undewear Olympics are worse on your home pro day fields with your coaches using the stop watches, trust me there so many sub 4.3s this season everyone's a track guy LOL

they are fudging numbers trust me..

 

[Typhus]

without a combine this is going to be far worse year for targeting player and only thing most scouts have is film..the opt out players makes it twice as tough..theres going to be far more1st round busts then in any past years IMHO..

And far more late round steals.

 

[blueblood70]

And far more late round steals.

hopefully

 

[Bobhaze]

And far more late round steals.

I think this draft has the potential for a lot of surprises. Last year’s college FB season was so tainted by the virus and all its implications, I think several really good players are going to slide down the draft pecking order just because they either opted out last year or just didn’t have as good a season as expected.

 

[Hardline]

I always form my opinions from watching full game tape.

 

[Bobhaze]

I always form my opinions from watching full game tape.

That’s good. But most scouts don’t have that time luxury.

 

[DUO_CORE]

Ah yes, I remember the Larry Allen 24 hour college highlight coverage on espn from the 90's.......not lol

 

[fivetwos]

without a combine this is going to be far worse year for targeting player and only thing most scouts have is film..the opt out players makes it twice as tough..theres going to be far more1st round busts then in any past years IMHO..

Absolutely right.

Ive thought that all along.

I also think we may see a couple of mid round guys that end up as HOF players for the same reasons.

Either way player evaluation is going to be all over the place for everyone.

Who gets lucky? Who plays it safe?

 

[maryquality]

Buyer beware: College highlight films of most NFL prospects for the draft are almost always overrated. Proceed with caution. In fact many highlight films this team of year lead to the dreaded offseason affliction known as “Pet Cat Disease”.

What’s “Pet Cat Disease, or “PCD”? It’s the annual over-fixation at draft time on a prospect whose highlight film shows a QB hitting wide open receivers while under no pressure against a team like William and Mary College, featuring a defense with 11 guys not headed to the NFL. Most college players can look look really good for about 5-10 plays a game. But they usually play 50-70 plays a game, meaning only about 10-20% of the time are they looking like they’re in “beast mode”.

Highlight films have their place and purpose. But it’s worth noting some key indicators:

• Who is the opponent in the film? If it’s Ohio State whipping up on the Citadel, tap the brakes.
• If it’s a QB or WR in the highlight, you may be witnessing a coverage meltdown, not a spectacular play. Many highlights are actually defensive lapses which skew what you see.
• If it’s a lineman, consider who they’re “pancaking” in a highlight. If an OT is crushing a 180 lb CB from Vanderbilt on a screen pass, be aware.

My point is, don’t just believe a college highlight film at face value. For some perspective, watch a high school highlight film and remember 97% of the kids in the film will never play college football. Then apply that formula to a college film.

Avoid “PCD”!

Is there a cure for PCD? Asking for a friend.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Until you have 9 pro bowlers across both lines, keeping taking the best lineman available. It’s boring, but it’s also the reason the Cowboys or the Eagles did anything of value over the last 20 years.

Cox. Ware. Kelce. Martin. Frederick. Smith. Johnson.

Washington finally wised up, stopped making stupid picks, fixed their oline and went heavy first round Dline, paid off this year even without a franchise qb.

It’s boring but it translates. Taking TE’s, WR’s, corners, RBs rarely translates long term.

Ignore the Pitts swooning, I hope you don’t take Sewell so we can

 

[JoeKing]

The veterinarian said my pet cat's disease is called Dermatitis. Just saying.

 

[Motorola]

Buyer beware: College highlight films of most NFL prospects for the draft are almost always overrated. Proceed with caution. In fact many highlight films this team of year lead to the dreaded offseason affliction known as “Pet Cat Disease”.

What’s “Pet Cat Disease, or “PCD”? It’s the annual over-fixation at draft time on a prospect whose highlight film shows a QB hitting wide open receivers while under no pressure against a team like William and Mary College, featuring a defense with 11 guys not headed to the NFL. Most college players can look look really good for about 5-10 plays a game. But they usually play 50-70 plays a game, meaning only about 10-20% of the time are they looking like they’re in “beast mode”.

Highlight films have their place and purpose. But it’s worth noting some key indicators:

• Who is the opponent in the film? If it’s Ohio State whipping up on the Citadel, tap the brakes.
• If it’s a QB or WR in the highlight, you may be witnessing a coverage meltdown, not a spectacular play. Many highlights are actually defensive lapses which skew what you see.
• If it’s a lineman, consider who they’re “pancaking” in a highlight. If an OT is crushing a 180 lb CB from Vanderbilt on a screen pass, be aware.

My point is, don’t just believe a college highlight film at face value. For some perspective, watch a high school highlight film and remember 97% of the kids in the film will never play college football. Then apply that formula to a college film.

Avoid “PCD”!

That why NFL teams employ scouts. They don't depend on highlight films \video.
1) Scouts go to games and watch players against all competition - games against "cupcakes", conference foes, and marquee matchups against top ranked teams, playoffs and bowl games.
2) Scouts breakdown film on players- they note their strengths and weaknesses in athletic ability, position technique, football IQ, and situational awareness, and their level of effort as they face opponents of varying skill levels throughout their season(s).
3) Scouts talk to people involved in and around a player's college program - current \ former coaches and teammates, support personnel, media people that cover the team - how they are perceived, and their impact within the team.
4) Scouts research players' backgrounds - upbringing, medical histories, character, legal issues away from the sport.
5) Scouts are employed by NFL teams; they must put in the work to provide the most comprehensive information so their GMs & player personnel people can make sound decisions on what players to acquire in the draft.
Bob Haze - your "PCD" mainly is an affliction of fans... mock maniacs and wannabe draftniks that spend a few hours a week viewing the "produced" product - background music, hyped voiceovers, etc.

 

[DandyDon52]

Bob Haze - your "PCD" mainly is an affliction of fans... mock maniacs and draft

you left out JERRY !!!!!!