Another Look At QBs: Round Drafted, Pro Bowls, and Superbowls

[gbrittain]

WARNING: If you are not interested in the analysis of the QB position in terms of round drafted, Pro Bowls, and Superbowls this is not the thread for you.

I will start with Superbowls and then work my way down. I started with the analysis of the last 10 Superbowls.

SUPER BOWLS:

In the last 10 Superbowls there have been 15 different starting QBs represented.

Of those 15 QBs all but one of them have played in a Pro Bowl.

Of those 15 QBs, 11 of them have played in at least two Pro Bowls. The exceptions are Ben Roethlisberger, Jake Delhomme, Trent Dilfer, and Kerry Collins.

Of those 11 QBs who have played in at least two Pro Bowls, 7 of them have played in 3 or more Pro Bowls.

Of those 7 QBs who have played in at least 3 Pro Bowls, 4 of them have played in more than 1 Superbowl. Kurt Warner has played in 2, John Elway has played in two, Brett Favre has played in two, and Tom Brady has played in three.

PRO BOWLS:

Of the last 10 years worth of Pro Bowls there have been a total of 35 different QBs selected. Those 35 QBs have filled the 74 available slots. I did not break it down by players selected versus players filling in due to injuries. I simply used the roster displayed by profootball-reference.com

1st Round drafted players represent - 45.9% (34 slots) of the 74 slots and 40% (14 different players) of the 35 players selected. I will go short hand rest of the way.

Slots - Players - Slot% - Player%
1st Round
34 - 14 - 45.9% - 40.0%

2nd Round
8 - 4 - 10.8% - 11.4%

3rd Round
3 - 2 - 4.1% - 5.7%

4th Round
5 - 2 - 6.8% - 5.7%

5th Round
3 - 1 - 4.1% - 2.9%

6th Round
6 - 3 - 8.1% - 8.6%

7th Round
1 - 1 - 1.4% - 2.9%

8th Round
6 - 4 - 8.1% - 11.4%

Free Agent
8 - 4 - 10.8% - 11.4%

DRAFT:

To analyze the draft I started with looking at the QBs who made the Pro Bowl in the last ten years. Of course, some players such as Elway were drafted before 1996, but played in a Pro Bowl in 1996 or later. Elway was the QB who got drafted the longest ago (1983). Since Elway was drafted in 1983 and played in a Pro Bowl in 1996 or later, I used all drafts since 1983 as my subjects for analysis.

Since 1983 there have been a total of 327 QBs drafted. This is how many have been drafted according to round, how many Pro Bowl appearances by round, how many players selected to Pro Bowl, and number of QBs with multiple Pro Bowls:

1st - 56 QBs / 68 Pro Bowls by 20 different QBs / 13 Multiple Pro Bowl players
2nd - 20 QBs / 18 Pro Bowls by 5 different QBs / 3 Multiple Pro Bowl players
3rd - 36 QBs / 5 Pro Bowls by 4 different QBs / 1 Multiple Pro Bowl player
4th - 37 QBs / 5 Pro Bowls by 2 different QBs / 1 Multiple Pro Bowl player
5th - 19 QBs / 3 Pro Bowls by 1 QB / 1 Multiple Pro Bowl player
6th - 45 QBs / 10 Pro Bowls by 6 different QBs / 3 Multiple Pro Bowl players
7th - 44 QBs / 1 Pro Bowl by 1 QB / 0 Multilple Pro Bowl players
8th and beyond - 70 QBs / 7 Pro Bowls by 5 different QBs / 2 Multiple Pro Bowl players

Free Agent - Unknown amount of Free Agent QBs / 16 Pro Bowls by 4 different QBs / 3 Multiple Pro Bowl players.
The Free Agent QBs are Warren Moon, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, and Jake Delhomme.


MY OPINIONS:

It has always been my opinion that having a frachise type QB is the single most important ingredient on the field for any team.

I contend that having a franchise type QB increases your chances greatly of fielding a competitive team year after year, winning the Superbowl and even more importantly playing in or winning multiple Superbowls.

There are as many different definitions of what constitutes a franchise QB as their are football fans. No one persons definition is 100% correct or wrong.

I am therefore using the Pro Bowl as a measuring stick. I know that using the Pro Bowl as a measuring stick is not a full proof measure. Some players deserve the Pro Bowl and do not make it while others do not deserve it yet make the Pro Bowl. Often though, players who make the Pro Bowl deserve the Pro Bowl. I am counting on the margin of error going both ways for those who deserved it and did not make it and those who made it yet did not deserve it.

You have to go all the way back to 1996 to find a QB (Stan Humphries) who has played in a Superbowl without having ever played in a Pro Bowl. I would say the evidence is pretty conclusive that you have to have a player that has the capability to play at a Pro Bowl level to be extremely successful.

Where should one look for a Pro Bowl caliber player? If you use history as a guide as I did when I looked back all the way to 1983, you should look in the first round of the draft. You have a 35.7% chance of finding that Pro Bowl player in the first round and a 25% chance of finding that Pro Bowl player in the second round. After the the first two rounds you never have better than a 13.3% chance of drafting a Pro Bowl caliber QB in any given round.

I would never say that a team could not win a Super Bowl with a QB who is not a Pro Bowl caliber QB, but only two winning QBs in the history of the Super Bowl have not played in at least one Pro Bowl. Those QBs are Doug Williams and Jim Plunkett. Of course there are plenty of 1 Pro Bowl wonders such as Trent Dilfer.

Just as I would not say you have to have a Pro Bowl caliber QB to win a Super Bowl, I would not say you have to draft a QB in the first round either. I would only suggest your odds of finding that QB are greater in the first round than any other round.

I am not speaking in certainties. It is all about the odds here. Tom Brady is a great find in the 6th round. Kurt Warner is a gem of a Free Agent. Doug Williams is a wonderful cinderalla story. I would say do not doubt the importance of the QB and do not think you are more likely to find that special QB in 7th round or Free Agent market than you are of finding him in the 1st or 2nd round.

BTW this is just for you Summerisfunner.

 

[Austin28]

Good read. I just don't think there is a hurry for us to get a QB. We have Drew Bledsoe.

 

[AdamJT13]

Jim McMahon did play in one Pro Bowl (1985).

 

[gbrittain]

Jim McMahon did play in one Pro Bowl (1985).

Ahh...thanks for the correction. I will edit orginal post.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

BTW this is just for you Summerisfunner.

nice analysis, but I still contend that it's more about how you respond to coaching, and what type of coaching you are getting, not to mention the team you have around you, that makes a franchise QB and Super Bowl participant, than it is draft status

your post could also be for the Bledsoe bashers since he was a 1st round pick, has been to the Pro Bowl, and last year played at a Pro Bowl level, or should have gotten in over McNabb at least

 

[burmafrd]

Bottom line is that if you are going for a franchise QB do it in the first rd. I would like to see someone break down WHERE in the first rd you pick that gives you the best shot- I am guessing it is top 10 but it would be interesting to know.

 

[jterrell]

Bottom line is that if you are going for a franchise QB do it in the first rd. I would like to see someone break down WHERE in the first rd you pick that gives you the best shot- I am guessing it is top 10 but it would be interesting to know.

Its always a tough call.

QBs tend to get overrated so anyone near a lock to perform will go top 10.

The 40% sounds great but the problem is that means whiffing 60% of the time.

If you select a QB top 5 and he doesn't go to at least 2 pro bowls you have made a sorry pick that will haunt the franchise. QB is important. It is the position which absolutely has to be amnned by a decent or better player. Not great but at least good enough to execute limited game plans.

The other thing is if you look at the draft classes at QB you notice the huge gaps. 1983 was stellar than nothign til Aikman really except Young who never played for the Bucs. The 1999 draft was supposed to be 1983-esque with 5 QBs going top 13 yet 3 are out of the league and only 1 plays for the team that drafted him.

The important thin is to have a plan at QB. Draft a guy you can develop and you can build a game plan around. Its basically the same whether pop warner or the nfl.

 

[superpunk]

I think alot has to do with the situation the QB goes into. Maybe if Carr was in an organization that had a clue, he would be a pro-bowler by now. If Roethlisberger had went to Oakland, or NY, would he be as well known, or anywhere near as well regarded? I doubt it.

 

[InmanRoshi]

First round QB's should be broken down to Top 5 picks and everyone else in the first round. The rate of Top 5 QB's becoming franchise QB's is pretty good, but from picks 6-32 the success rate is atrocious.

 

[AtlCB]

First round QB's should be broken down to Top 5 picks and everyone else in the first round. The rate of Top 5 QB's becoming franchise QB's is pretty good, but from picks 6-32 the success rate is atrocious.

I'm just guessing, but I believe the rate of finding franchise QB's in the top 5 isn't much better than the rest of the first round.

 

[burmafrd]

I think top 10 is the key. Anything 11 and up means there are doubts. Outside of the plain flat screwups like Leaf.
Its hard for some to admit but there were more then a few that thought Leaf would be the better QB - not Manning.
Carr is the perfect example of a QB going to a bad place. If he had been somewhere where they had even a DECENT O line no telling where he would be.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Its always a tough call.

QBs tend to get overrated so anyone near a lock to perform will go top 10.

The 40% sounds great but the problem is that means whiffing 60% of the time.

If you select a QB top 5 and he doesn't go to at least 2 pro bowls you have made a sorry pick that will haunt the franchise. QB is important. It is the position which absolutely has to be amnned by a decent or better player. Not great but at least good enough to execute limited game plans.

The other thing is if you look at the draft classes at QB you notice the huge gaps. 1983 was stellar than nothign til Aikman really except Young who never played for the Bucs. The 1999 draft was supposed to be 1983-esque with 5 QBs going top 13 yet 3 are out of the league and only 1 plays for the team that drafted him.

The important thin is to have a plan at QB. Draft a guy you can develop and you can build a game plan around. Its basically the same whether pop warner or the nfl.

Young did actually play for th Bucs but it was a very forgetable stint so..........

 

[gbrittain]

First round QB's should be broken down to Top 5 picks and everyone else in the first round. The rate of Top 5 QB's becoming franchise QB's is pretty good, but from picks 6-32 the success rate is atrocious.

P = Pro Bowl
POT = Still young...career undetermined
B = Bust

I did not include those QBs drafted this year or last year for obvious reasons. These are all the QBs selected after pick #5 in the first round since 1983.

Trent Dilfer P
David Klingler B
Kelly Stouffer B
Byron Leftwich POT
Andre Ware B
Wayne Peace B
Todd Blackledge B
Ken Hobart B
Ben Roethlisberger POT
Daunte Culpepper P
Cade McNown B
Chuck Long B
Chris Miller P
Jim Kelly P
Tony Eason B
Dan McGwire B
Chad Pennington POT
Kyle Boller POT
J.P. Losman POT
Rex Grossman POT
Todd Marinovich B
Ken O'Brien P
Tommy Maddox B
Jim Druckenmiller B
Jim Harbaugh P
Dan Marino P
Patrick Ramsey POT

That is 27 QBs selected in the first round between picks 6 through 32. I came up with 7 Pro Bowl caliber QBs. That is a 25.9% Pro Bowl caliber success rate. I would feel comfortable assuming that Ben R and Byron L will play at a Pro Bowl level if they have not already. That would put the percentage at 33.3%.

 

[InmanRoshi]

So throw out the POT's, you have 13 busts out of 20 first round picks. And its not so much the cost of the first round picks, which is substantial when you consider the opportunity costs of other players on the board that they could have drafted with that pick, its the cost of time as well. The entire franchise in Detroit has basically wasted 4 seasons on the Joey Harrington experiment because they invested a Top 10 pick on him.

 

[gbrittain]

nice analysis, but I still contend that it's more about how you respond to coaching, and what type of coaching you are getting, not to mention the team you have around you, that makes a franchise QB and Super Bowl participant, than it is draft status

your post could also be for the Bledsoe bashers since he was a 1st round pick, has been to the Pro Bowl, and last year played at a Pro Bowl level, or should have gotten in over McNabb at least

I agree 100%

with nice analysis, but I still contend that it's more about how you respond to coaching, and what type of coaching you are getting, not to mention the team you have around you, that makes a franchise QB and Super Bowl participant

Specially the nice analysis part!

Now I do not agree that draft status is not all that important. All things being equal (Quality coaching, quality players, quality organization) the advantage will go to the QB being drafted highest IMO.

 

[AtlCB]

2006 1 1 3 3 Vince Young Titans Texas
2005 1 1 1 1 Alex D. Smith 49ers Utah
2004 1 1 1 1 Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi
2 1 4 4 Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State
2003 1 1 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals USC
2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State
2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon
2001 1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech
1999 1 1 1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky
2 1 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse
3 1 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon
1998 1 1 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee
2 1 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State
1995 1 1 3 3 Steve McNair Oilers Alcorn State
2 1 5 5 Kerry Collins Panthers Penn State
1994 1 1 3 3 Heath Shuler Commanders Tennessee
1993 1 1 1 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots Washington State
2 1 2 2 Rick Mirer Seahawks Notre Dame
1990 1 1 1 1 Jeff George Colts Illinois
1989 1 1 1 1 Troy Aikman Cowboys UCLA
1987 1 1 1 1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers Miami (FL)
1986 1 1 3 3 Jim Everett Oilers Purdue
1984u 1 1 1 1 Steve Young Buccaneers Brigham Young
1983 1 1 1 1 John Elway Colts Stanford

I see only about seven or eight QB's from this list that actually turned out to be worthy of a top 5 pick.

 

[gbrittain]

So throw out the POT's, you have 13 busts out of 20 first round picks. And its not so much the cost of the picks, its the cost of time as well. Detroit has basically wasted 4 seasons on the Joey Harrington experiment because they had invested a Top 10 pick on him.

Absolutely. Never said it was easy or not costly. What is the alternative? You have to have a QB. Detroit wasted 4 years with Joey Harrington. They also wasted the previous 4 years before Harrington on Charlie Batch. A bad QB is a bad QB. Dallas wasted 4 years on Carter, Hutchinson, and Testaverde. It happens no matter where you draft your QBs.

 

[ravidubey]

Big Ben is nothing less than a "P". He tooks his team a step into the playoffs as a rookie and to the Lombardi trophy his second year. End of story. Patrick Ramsey likewise was a bust-- he was traded for a 6th round pick, end of story. Looking at this list below I would guess Leftwich and Pennington will be P's, Boller a bust, and let's give Grossman a P.

Byron Leftwich P
Ben Roethlisberger P
Chad Pennington P
Kyle Boller B
J.P. Losman B
Rex Grossman P
Patrick Ramsey B

That makes it 16 busts and 24 successes of varying degrees for an atrocious 33% success rate. Maybe I'm wrong, but that feels low compared with picks at other positions. I have always thought that NFL management does not know how to scout, draft, and train QB's well and agree that coaching makes all the difference in the world. Cowher and Belichek have done well developing Rothlisburger and Brady thus far, and I don't think it's a coincidence that they have led two of the more stable NFL regimes. Most others choke for various reasons.

- There is the underlying conflict between management and coaching to consider. Coaches primarily want to use their draft picks to win immediately leaving GM's to shoulder the responsibility of building for the future. Without the input or buy-in of coaches, who's left to get a feel for coachability or other important personal qualities?

- CYA. I think there is as much of or more of this kind of mentality in the front office than there is real football knowledge, cooperation, and a real understanding of what it takes to win. Management says "we're getting a QB" and so they snag whoever is left in the first round when they draft. See Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, and Heath Shuler. Losers heading to loser management teams willing to accept players not worthy of that draft slot just to get a QB. The front office makes a high profile splash and keeps the fans happy for a few years, because every fan wants the next Troy Aikman to be on their team and they know it takes time to develop great QB's.

- "Measurables". Too often players like Akili Smith are coached specifically to improve the measurables that scouts love. Shuler and Dilfer were compared with Bledsoe and Mirer, and everyone wanted another Bledsoe-- that sexy top draft choice. What they got were more Rick Mirers.

- Pressure to develop. Some execs probably think that by making a QB a first round choice they are actually improving his chances to succeed. How does a David Rivers or Jay Cutler skyrocket from the second round to the top of the first round? How does a Patrick Ramsey enter the first round at all? If anything, drafting a QB higher only increases everyone's expectations and correspondingly increases the pressure already placed upon them. This contributes to the perception of failure should a QB take longer to develop than three years-- regardless of that player's supporting cast. QB's thrown to the wolves too early can lose the confidence essential to the position.

 

[InmanRoshi]

The QB position is at least 60%-70% intangible. There is an "it" factor that you either have or you don't, and its often easy for a QB in college to deceivingly look like he has "it" based on the offensive system he runs (Alex Smith).

Arm strength is way, way over-valued. Not to say it doesn't have value, but its over-valued. At the end of the day what matters is the ability to get the ball to the WR quickly before a defense can react. Arm strength is only one part of the equation that includes the ability to quickly read the defense to find the open WR, decisively pull the trigger immediately (which is usually equated to confidence), release time and arm strength. One strength in that total equation can negate other weaknesses, and vice versa. I out of the people I consider to be the top 5 QB's currently in the NFL ... Manning, Brady, Hasselbeck, Palmer and Trent Green .. only Palmer has an A+ arm.

 

[Gent]

Although I believe 1st round QBs are probably better, I think this type of analysis is heavily skewed by the fact that 1st round selections get more opportunities.

-Gent