Are we tipping our run plays?

[Fredd]

so, you're saying that they tipped their hands 8 times yesterday? Sure, Romo likely audibled out of some runs, but 8 runs against 55 times trying to throw? (51 attempts, 3 times he was sacked, and Romo's run was a pass play)....yeah, not buying what you are selling....it is OK to think of "pass-first" as that is where the talent is in the skill positions...but it is almost like after Murray's 27 yard gallop that they said "F-it, we know we can run, so let's just pass t he rest of the game"....and, why, oh why do you give the ball to dunbar 3 times up the middle? the little guy is the speed guy and they negate that by running him up the gut....these coaches are buffoons....

 

[RoyTheHammer]

Your opinion is valid as well. I'm not making absolute statements as to rightness or wrongness.

So they may be tipping their plays and we may just be whiffing on blocks.. which is it?

 

[percyhoward]

If teams were just to guess run or pass based on whether or not Dallas was in the shotgun, they'd be pretty successful based on that alone.

Prior to today and spanning the previous month, here's the breakdown. This covers Denver, Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit. 2-2 over that time, and Dallas has shown both the best offense they can put out as well as some rather uninspired offensive performances.

Under Center: 72.6% Run / 27.4% Pass (61 Runs / 23 Passes)

Shotgun: 13.5% Run / 86.5% Pass (20 Runs / 128 Passes)​

Without even taking into account the down, the distance, the score, time on the clock, field position or anything else that's what teams start with.

So, just using that basic framework what would happen if teams played the run every time Dallas was under center and played the pass every time Dallas was in the shotgun and didn't even factor in all the other stuff?

Under Center: 61 of 84 plays correctly identified.

Shotgun: 128 of 148 plays correctly identified.

Total: 189 of 232 plays correctly identified.

​

That's 81.4% of all the plays run that teams would be lining up expecting a run or pass and being correct. Who knows how high that percentage could be if teams actually started looking at trends based on distance to go or what down it is.

We were talking about this in the game chat. All I can figure is that the coaches don't like the way the shotgun draws and tosses are looking in practice, and so we don't use them in games. Or maybe we have certain situations that we're waiting for to use them, but who knows what they would be? The problem with not running those deception plays out of shotgun is that defenses ignore play action out of the shotgun (although ideally you wouldn't want to be doing that in 3rd and long anyway, and we did just that and got sacked).

What I did notice is that we did a better job of mixing in throws when Romo was under center in this game, about half-and-half without looking at the final numbers. We definitely are not focusing on deception runs the way we were in Garrett's first games as HC in 2010.

 

[sbark]

Was listening to a Viking radio broadcast up here in the north country.........the Vikes announcers, in the 1st half were crowing even the players on the bench, let alone the starters, were hollering out the Cowboys formation and getting the play to be run out of it pegged to a tee.........

 

[noshame]

Everybody is all over the off tackle to the left, so yes, we're signaling that some way, I imagine if you studied the formation you'd find a flaw.

 

[JBell]

I wouldn't be surprised if they were tipping their hand. This offense has telegraphed runs in the past (Remember when "kill, kill, kill" = run EVERY time?). Maybe it's just a little more subtle this time.

 

[Alexander]

We most certainly tip them off IMO.

The formation is a dead giveaway. If Romo is under center, the percentages dictate run. We also run more when Harris is in the game, it is very evident.

 

[Zekeats]

Been doing it for years

 

[fifaguy]

I think it's moreso running on obvious down, formations and overall lack of respect of our running backs/game.

 

[Brooksey]

Yes we are tipping our run plays. Everyone in the NFL and on their couch knows we run on 2nd and 13. We usually tip it off by trying to disguise it with a passing personnel package and formation.

 

[xwalker]

If teams were just to guess run or pass based on whether or not Dallas was in the shotgun, they'd be pretty successful based on that alone.

Prior to today and spanning the previous month, here's the breakdown. This covers Denver, Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit. 2-2 over that time, and Dallas has shown both the best offense they can put out as well as some rather uninspired offensive performances.

Under Center: 72.6% Run / 27.4% Pass (61 Runs / 23 Passes)

Shotgun: 13.5% Run / 86.5% Pass (20 Runs / 128 Passes)​

Without even taking into account the down, the distance, the score, time on the clock, field position or anything else that's what teams start with.

So, just using that basic framework what would happen if teams played the run every time Dallas was under center and played the pass every time Dallas was in the shotgun and didn't even factor in all the other stuff?

Under Center: 61 of 84 plays correctly identified.

Shotgun: 128 of 148 plays correctly identified.

Total: 189 of 232 plays correctly identified.

​

That's 81.4% of all the plays run that teams would be lining up expecting a run or pass and being correct. Who knows how high that percentage could be if teams actually started looking at trends based on distance to go or what down it is.

Excellent post.

It was obvious in the Lions game that they were abandoning coverage to play the run on most run plays. I have not reviewed the Vikings game, but it's probably similar.

Defenders would abandon coverage before the ball was out of Romo's hands on the hand-off. They at least did some play fakes in the Vikings game that they didn't do in the Lions game.

As you indicated, if they just guess based on Shotgun vs Under Center, they're going to be right most of the time.

The other thing I noticed in the Lions game is that on the few plays where they passed from under Center, all of the pass routes were short. The one long pass route that they ran from under center had T.Will open for a big gain and probable TD except the defender tripped him. It was ruled incidental contact.

In the Lions game they ran 1 play that looked like the pistol or short shotgun with the RB behind the QB. It seems like that would be a good compromise between Under Center and the Shotgun; however, using it only 1 time is meaningless.

For more advanced data, not only could you look at down/distance combined with Shotgun/Under-Center, but I suspect that they've had more success running the ball the few times that they run it from the Shotgun formation.

 

[CATCH17]

I've never seen defenders come down hill as fast as they do on our run plays. I don't have advanced statistics available for percentages, but I wouldn't be surprised if teams have caught on to what formations=run plays. I know our oline talent is average at best, but if you go back and watch the Vikings defenders on all of the run plays, it's amazing how often they are correct when they are selling out on the run. I noticed this last week too vs the Lions. I tried to watch Romo and our receivers to see if it was something they were doing coming out of the huddle pre-snap that was tipping the play to the defenders but I didn't notice anything particular. Are we becoming too predictable with our run formations?

Of course. This has been going on for years.

Dallas lines up in heavy formations in the middle of the field and make it obvious that they are about to run.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Do we self-scout at all? Even a little bit?

 

[visionary]

If teams were just to guess run or pass based on whether or not Dallas was in the shotgun, they'd be pretty successful based on that alone.

Prior to today and spanning the previous month, here's the breakdown. This covers Denver, Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit. 2-2 over that time, and Dallas has shown both the best offense they can put out as well as some rather uninspired offensive performances.

Under Center: 72.6% Run / 27.4% Pass (61 Runs / 23 Passes)

Shotgun: 13.5% Run / 86.5% Pass (20 Runs / 128 Passes)​

Without even taking into account the down, the distance, the score, time on the clock, field position or anything else that's what teams start with.

So, just using that basic framework what would happen if teams played the run every time Dallas was under center and played the pass every time Dallas was in the shotgun and didn't even factor in all the other stuff?

Under Center: 61 of 84 plays correctly identified.

Shotgun: 128 of 148 plays correctly identified.

Total: 189 of 232 plays correctly identified.

​

That's 81.4% of all the plays run that teams would be lining up expecting a run or pass and being correct. Who knows how high that percentage could be if teams actually started looking at trends based on distance to go or what down it is.

this just gets back to how inept this offense and this coaching staff really is

 

[visionary]

Do we self-scout at all? Even a little bit?

that would require introspection and this organization abhors that starting with the owner/GM and the HC

 

[Frosty]

If teams were just to guess run or pass based on whether or not Dallas was in the shotgun, they'd be pretty successful based on that alone.

Prior to today and spanning the previous month, here's the breakdown. This covers Denver, Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit. 2-2 over that time, and Dallas has shown both the best offense they can put out as well as some rather uninspired offensive performances.

Under Center: 72.6% Run / 27.4% Pass (61 Runs / 23 Passes)

Shotgun: 13.5% Run / 86.5% Pass (20 Runs / 128 Passes)​

Without even taking into account the down, the distance, the score, time on the clock, field position or anything else that's what teams start with.

So, just using that basic framework what would happen if teams played the run every time Dallas was under center and played the pass every time Dallas was in the shotgun and didn't even factor in all the other stuff?

Under Center: 61 of 84 plays correctly identified.

Shotgun: 128 of 148 plays correctly identified.

Total: 189 of 232 plays correctly identified.

​

That's 81.4% of all the plays run that teams would be lining up expecting a run or pass and being correct. Who knows how high that percentage could be if teams actually started looking at trends based on distance to go or what down it is.

Love that information......THIS IS THE BEST POST OF THE JASON GARRETT ERA...... means one simple thing....How PREDICTABLE..these Cowboys are......

 

[Hook'em#11]

Kinda easy to figure out what plays the Cowboys are running.. Considering 95% are passing.. Anyone can guess the other 5%..

 

[texbumthelife]

Ugh, so sorry for the horrible spelling and grammer in my posts. This new aggressive auto correct that came with OS Maverick is really killing me.

 

[rkell87]

There was an 8 year old with binoculars behind me at the game and he called every running play before the ball was snapped, was only wrong twice and both of those were play action.

 

[Sampson]

I haven't been able to watch all of yesterdays game yet, but up till then I've noticed that most of the time in 11 personnel with Harris in the slot they run the ball. Just the way it seems to me. I havent confirmed that with stats.