Are we tipping our run plays?

[ScipioCowboy]

So they may be tipping their plays and we may just be whiffing on blocks.. which is it?

Personally, I found it peculiar how quickly the running plays collapsed versus the passing plays in which Romo generally had time. It's a forum for opinions, and given the limited knowledge most of us have, it's usually absurd to tell anyone they're wrong.

 

[Zordon]

Do we self-scout at all? Even a little bit?

this is a good question.

 

[big dog cowboy]

When the average fan at home watching the game can call out the play you should expect an opposing linebacker to be able to do the same.

Happens all the time at my home.

 

[DrunkWithPower]

If teams were just to guess run or pass based on whether or not Dallas was in the shotgun, they'd be pretty successful based on that alone.

Prior to today and spanning the previous month, here's the breakdown. This covers Denver, Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit. 2-2 over that time, and Dallas has shown both the best offense they can put out as well as some rather uninspired offensive performances.

Under Center: 72.6% Run / 27.4% Pass (61 Runs / 23 Passes)

Shotgun: 13.5% Run / 86.5% Pass (20 Runs / 128 Passes)​

Without even taking into account the down, the distance, the score, time on the clock, field position or anything else that's what teams start with.

So, just using that basic framework what would happen if teams played the run every time Dallas was under center and played the pass every time Dallas was in the shotgun and didn't even factor in all the other stuff?

Under Center: 61 of 84 plays correctly identified.

Shotgun: 128 of 148 plays correctly identified.

Total: 189 of 232 plays correctly identified.

​

That's 81.4% of all the plays run that teams would be lining up expecting a run or pass and being correct. Who knows how high that percentage could be if teams actually started looking at trends based on distance to go or what down it is.

The other issue is when they are in shotgun (and sometimes even when Romo is under center), they motion Witten to the side of the run. It's the same play over and over again. So now if the defense is pretty sure it's a run, then having Witten motion actually reveals which direction is play is going. This has been going on forever and is pretty sad...

In the Detroit game Billick kept commenting on how the defense was selling out by run blitzing someone from the secondary almost every time. That's because we give them a very good idea of what we're doing...

 

[ConstantReboot]

I've never seen defenders come down hill as fast as they do on our run plays. I don't have advanced statistics available for percentages, but I wouldn't be surprised if teams have caught on to what formations=run plays. I know our oline talent is average at best, but if you go back and watch the Vikings defenders on all of the run plays, it's amazing how often they are correct when they are selling out on the run. I noticed this last week too vs the Lions. I tried to watch Romo and our receivers to see if it was something they were doing coming out of the huddle pre-snap that was tipping the play to the defenders but I didn't notice anything particular. Are we becoming too predictable with our run formations?

My Mom comes over to cook for me while I watch the Cowboys. She can predict what the Cowboys do based on their formation. If my Mom who doesn't know much about football, knows what the Cowboys are doing based on formation, the other team too as well.

 

[Plankton]

Do we self-scout at all? Even a little bit?

It's part of the process.

 

[Rockport]

I've never seen defenders come down hill as fast as they do on our run plays. I don't have advanced statistics available for percentages, but I wouldn't be surprised if teams have caught on to what formations=run plays. I know our oline talent is average at best, but if you go back and watch the Vikings defenders on all of the run plays, it's amazing how often they are correct when they are selling out on the run. I noticed this last week too vs the Lions. I tried to watch Romo and our receivers to see if it was something they were doing coming out of the huddle pre-snap that was tipping the play to the defenders but I didn't notice anything particular. Are we becoming too predictable with our run formations?

Most defenses can read the play before it happens. This is the NFL. The better teams can still run effectively no matter that the defense knows it's going to be a run. The Cowboys of the 90's didn't even try to conceal the fact Emmitt was going to run. Defeneses couldn't stop us regardless. No story here.

 

[perrykemp]

Most defenses can read the play before it happens. This is the NFL. The better teams can still run effectively no matter that the defense knows it's going to be a run. The Cowboys of the 90's didn't even try to conceal the fact Emmitt was going to run. Defeneses couldn't stop us regardless. No story here.

The issue is when you pass so much, and are so predictably passing, it allows the defense to continuously drop 7 DBs into coverage and it becomes a numbers game. The opposing team can double Dez, double Witten, and single up rookie (Williams), a munchkin (Beasley), and typically whatever RB is coming out of the backfield.

The way you force a more favorable situation is to occasionally pass out of running formations, and run out of passing formations. Seems like football 101.

 

[Rockport]

The issue is when you pass so much, and are so predictably passing, it allows the defense to continuously drop 7 DBs into coverage and it becomes a numbers game. The opposing team can double Dez, double Witten, and single up rookie (Williams), a munchkin (Beasley), and typically whatever RB is coming out of the backfield.

The way you force a more favorable situation is to occasionally pass out of running formations, and run out of passing formations. Seems like football 101.

I totally agree with your insinuation that there needs to be more running plays called. People will say "why run if you can't run", but your not going to win championships just passing the ball either.

 

[xwalker]

Most defenses can read the play before it happens. This is the NFL. The better teams can still run effectively no matter that the defense knows it's going to be a run. The Cowboys of the 90's didn't even try to conceal the fact Emmitt was going to run. Defeneses couldn't stop us regardless. No story here.

With parity in the modern NFL, even a slight advantage has great importance.

In the early nineties, the average DLineman was much smaller than they are now while OLinemen on average have not gotten bigger than the Cowboys OLinemen for that period of time. One of the Cowboys starting DTs, Tony Casillas only weighed about 278 while the Cowboys OLine averaged over 320. In the modern NFL, DTs are rarely under 300 and often weigh over 320, yet OLinemen still average below 320.

 

[perrykemp]

With parity in the modern NFL, even a slight advantage has great importance.

In the early nineties, the average DLineman was much smaller than they are now while OLinemen on average have not gotten bigger than the Cowboys OLinemen for that period of time. One of the Cowboys starting DTs, Tony Casillas only weighed about 278 while the Cowboys OLine averaged over 320. In the modern NFL, DTs are rarely under 300 and often weigh over 320, yet OLinemen still average below 320.

Interesting point.

Packers will roll into Dallas will 3 DL who all go over 350 lbs in Pickett, Raji, and Jolly. None of them are the pure fatso type either.

That's a situation maybe you didn't see previously where the average DL outweighs just about the average OL of any team in the league.

 

[Beast_from_East]

If teams were just to guess run or pass based on whether or not Dallas was in the shotgun, they'd be pretty successful based on that alone.

Prior to today and spanning the previous month, here's the breakdown. This covers Denver, Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit. 2-2 over that time, and Dallas has shown both the best offense they can put out as well as some rather uninspired offensive performances.

Under Center: 72.6% Run / 27.4% Pass (61 Runs / 23 Passes)

Shotgun: 13.5% Run / 86.5% Pass (20 Runs / 128 Passes)​

Without even taking into account the down, the distance, the score, time on the clock, field position or anything else that's what teams start with.

So, just using that basic framework what would happen if teams played the run every time Dallas was under center and played the pass every time Dallas was in the shotgun and didn't even factor in all the other stuff?

Under Center: 61 of 84 plays correctly identified.

Shotgun: 128 of 148 plays correctly identified.

Total: 189 of 232 plays correctly identified.

​

That's 81.4% of all the plays run that teams would be lining up expecting a run or pass and being correct. Who knows how high that percentage could be if teams actually started looking at trends based on distance to go or what down it is.

Nice work

 

[Beast_from_East]

Too bad there isn't some way to get this to Garrett and say, "If I can figure this out so can the other teams defense Jason. Get your head out of your tuckus!".

What is sad is that a fan can break down game tape better than Opie

 

[Doomsday101]

I've never seen defenders come down hill as fast as they do on our run plays. I don't have advanced statistics available for percentages, but I wouldn't be surprised if teams have caught on to what formations=run plays. I know our oline talent is average at best, but if you go back and watch the Vikings defenders on all of the run plays, it's amazing how often they are correct when they are selling out on the run. I noticed this last week too vs the Lions. I tried to watch Romo and our receivers to see if it was something they were doing coming out of the huddle pre-snap that was tipping the play to the defenders but I didn't notice anything particular. Are we becoming too predictable with our run formations?

I think Det and Minn have very strong guys on their defensive fronts. Both have issues in the secondary but their strenghts is their defensive down lineman. I think yesterday had we done a better job passing then we could have tried to run the ball more but with off target throws and a lot of dropped passes kept the score low.

 

[khiladi]

Most defenses can read the play before it happens. This is the NFL. The better teams can still run effectively no matter that the defense knows it's going to be a run. The Cowboys of the 90's didn't even try to conceal the fact Emmitt was going to run. Defeneses couldn't stop us regardless. No story here.

Norv's passing offense was built on play-action... No team ran it better than us...

 

[visionary]

There was an 8 year old with binoculars behind me at the game and he called every running play before the ball was snapped, was only wrong twice and both of those were play action.

luckily the saints dont have any 8 year olds on staff
just checked



this offense created by RHG is so predictable, its not even funny

 

[visionary]

Was listening to a Viking radio broadcast up here in the north country.........the Vikes announcers, in the 1st half were crowing even the players on the bench, let alone the starters, were hollering out the Cowboys formation and getting the play to be run out of it pegged to a tee.........

every one is wrong
the offense is unpredictable and garrett is a genious

not just a genius.....a genious i say!!!

 

[SlimBig]

Tremendous post Hoofbite.

 

[CaptainMorgan]

8 designed running plays the whole game.

Murray 7.8 yards per carry.

There is something really really wrong with that picture folks.

 

[percyhoward]

In the Lions game they ran 1 play that looked like the pistol or short shotgun with the RB behind the QB. It seems like that would be a good compromise between Under Center and the Shotgun; however, using it only 1 time is meaningless.

We've long since gone away from those kinds of plays for some reason. Think back to 2010 just after Garrett took over and look at all the rushing yardage we got from running out of the shotgun. Shotgun draws to Felix, tosses to Choice, and reverses to Austin accounted for most of our successful running plays in those games.