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December 1, 2007
Will NFL behold the power of Zeus?
IU prof's computer program says coaches too conservative; he's met with Colts, Patriots
By Mark Alesia
mark.alesia@indystar.com
The irony isn't lost on Chuck Bower, an Indiana University scientist in astrophysics, whose office contains books such as "The Atomic Nucleus" and whose football career consisted of a single season in eighth grade.
This man who studies the cosmos for a living has sat in front of NFL coaches, unabashedly challenging their conventional football wisdom with a pricey computer program he helped develop called Zeus.
The program, which makes decisions such as what to do on fourth down, has attracted three-hour audiences with, among others, New England coach Bill Belichick, Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis and Indianapolis Colts vice president Chris Polian.
Far from having his head in the stars, Bower, 54, said the science behind Zeus gives him and his partners some attitude.
"In some ways, we're kind of confrontational," he said. "I mean, we're nice about it. But if they want to say, 'You mean we're wrong?' We say, 'Yeah, you're wrong.' "
Much like a computer plays chess or backgammon, Zeus can take a decision -- say, punt or go for it on fourth down -- and simulate the game to its conclusion a million times, based on years of NFL data and the characteristics of the competing teams.
Then it spits out the "Game Winning Chance," or GWC, for the options -- a percentage that the decision will lead to victory.
If going for a first down has a 2 percent greater GWC than punting, it means that if the situation occurred 100 times, going for it would result in two more victories than punting.
Small errors add up during the course of a game or season. Bower and his partners, Frank Frigo, Louisville, Ky., and Bo Durickovic, Washington, D.C., claim Zeus would be worth about one victory per season.
The computer's main lesson: NFL coaches are too conservative, hurting their chances to win by punting and settling for field goals too often.
Zeus also frowns on teams that appear headed to defeat in the fourth quarter and seem more concerned with losing by a respectable score than seizing every chance to win. This shows up when the team punts, even deep in its territory.
"We watch games and shake our heads," Bower said. "It's the same old stuff."
Conservative Colts
Asked if he would ever use a computer program to make decisions, Colts coach Tony Dungy said, "Not in my coaching lifetime, but I do think there will be a time when guys use it." So far, though, Zeus hasn't been sold.
Dungy said he personally makes some decisions from the gut, "but normally I play the percentages."
But do coaches really know "the percentages"?
In rankings published by espn.com for the 2006 season, Zeus had the Colts 25th out of 32 NFL teams in correct "critical play calls," including fourth-down decisions. Dallas ranked first.
"A lot of people said, 'Wait a minute. They won the Super Bowl, so how could they have done anything wrong?' " Bower said.
Yet Bower is steadfast in saying the team's talent overcame its decision-making in situations measured by Zeus.
Without any Super Bowl rings on his finger, Bower knows there will be skepticism, even derision. He said he isn't spouting opinions designed to incite but rather relying on a computer program grounded in science.
Consider this situation from last year's Super Bowl:
With 3:20 left in the third quarter, the Colts led 19-14 and had a fourth-and-goal at the Chicago 2-yard line.
Zeus wanted them to go for it. The Colts kicked a field goal. After a penalty gave the Colts the option of having the ball at the 1-yard line, Zeus really wanted the Colts to go for it. They declined the penalty and took the three points.
It was, Bower wrote, "a situation where even the worst offensive team in the NFL is a favorite to score a TD." To Zeus, the Colts needed to press their advantage, and even if they failed, Chicago would have had awful field position.
Most coaches, fans and media would say to take the eight-point lead.
It was this type of situation that prompted criticism of Zeus when Bower and Frigo met with assistant coaches from the St. Louis Rams.
In an interview with the online magazine Gelf, Frigo recalled a Rams coach saying, "There's a momentum and emotional aspect to (football) that your model can't take into account."
The coach said failing in that type of situation would cause players to become "dejected."
Frigo said that reaction was typical of coaches' risk-averse nature, even when the odds favor success.
"They only see the negative side of the equation," he said.
New ideas
Bower and Frigo started building Zeus in 2001. They knew each other through backgammon. Frigo is a former world champion.
A commodities dealer, Frigo saw parallels between backgammon and football, including pauses in the game and "forks in the road" in terms of decisions.
Computers can beat the world's best players in chess and backgammon, but selling Zeus to football people hasn't been easy. It carries a price tag Bower would describe only as six figures.
In a meeting during the Colts' 2005 training camp, Bower said Chris Polian, son of team president Bill Polian, told him "we won't be the first team signing up." The Colts declined an interview request for Polian this week.
One issue is that the NFL prohibits coaches from using computers during games, although Bower said that rule could be overcome by anticipating situations and preparing printed material.
NFL spokesman Greg Aiello explained that while teams use computers for game plans, "the traditional thinking has been that the appeal of the game is the physical competition between players. A battle between computers seems less appealing."
Bower thinks it will require more than just an open-minded coach to embrace Zeus. It will take an open-minded organization, everyone from the owner to the last man on the bench.
That's basically what Cincinnati's Lewis told Bower: "He said, 'If I were to institute ideas like this, the only way I would do it is if the owner of the team told me he wouldn't fire me, because I would be doing something different than everybody in the league.' "
Will NFL behold the power of Zeus?
IU prof's computer program says coaches too conservative; he's met with Colts, Patriots
By Mark Alesia
mark.alesia@indystar.com
The irony isn't lost on Chuck Bower, an Indiana University scientist in astrophysics, whose office contains books such as "The Atomic Nucleus" and whose football career consisted of a single season in eighth grade.
The program, which makes decisions such as what to do on fourth down, has attracted three-hour audiences with, among others, New England coach Bill Belichick, Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis and Indianapolis Colts vice president Chris Polian.
Far from having his head in the stars, Bower, 54, said the science behind Zeus gives him and his partners some attitude.
"In some ways, we're kind of confrontational," he said. "I mean, we're nice about it. But if they want to say, 'You mean we're wrong?' We say, 'Yeah, you're wrong.' "
Much like a computer plays chess or backgammon, Zeus can take a decision -- say, punt or go for it on fourth down -- and simulate the game to its conclusion a million times, based on years of NFL data and the characteristics of the competing teams.
Then it spits out the "Game Winning Chance," or GWC, for the options -- a percentage that the decision will lead to victory.
If going for a first down has a 2 percent greater GWC than punting, it means that if the situation occurred 100 times, going for it would result in two more victories than punting.
Small errors add up during the course of a game or season. Bower and his partners, Frank Frigo, Louisville, Ky., and Bo Durickovic, Washington, D.C., claim Zeus would be worth about one victory per season.
The computer's main lesson: NFL coaches are too conservative, hurting their chances to win by punting and settling for field goals too often.
Zeus also frowns on teams that appear headed to defeat in the fourth quarter and seem more concerned with losing by a respectable score than seizing every chance to win. This shows up when the team punts, even deep in its territory.
"We watch games and shake our heads," Bower said. "It's the same old stuff."
Conservative Colts
Asked if he would ever use a computer program to make decisions, Colts coach Tony Dungy said, "Not in my coaching lifetime, but I do think there will be a time when guys use it." So far, though, Zeus hasn't been sold.
Dungy said he personally makes some decisions from the gut, "but normally I play the percentages."
But do coaches really know "the percentages"?
In rankings published by espn.com for the 2006 season, Zeus had the Colts 25th out of 32 NFL teams in correct "critical play calls," including fourth-down decisions. Dallas ranked first.
"A lot of people said, 'Wait a minute. They won the Super Bowl, so how could they have done anything wrong?' " Bower said.
Yet Bower is steadfast in saying the team's talent overcame its decision-making in situations measured by Zeus.
Without any Super Bowl rings on his finger, Bower knows there will be skepticism, even derision. He said he isn't spouting opinions designed to incite but rather relying on a computer program grounded in science.
Consider this situation from last year's Super Bowl:
With 3:20 left in the third quarter, the Colts led 19-14 and had a fourth-and-goal at the Chicago 2-yard line.
Zeus wanted them to go for it. The Colts kicked a field goal. After a penalty gave the Colts the option of having the ball at the 1-yard line, Zeus really wanted the Colts to go for it. They declined the penalty and took the three points.
It was, Bower wrote, "a situation where even the worst offensive team in the NFL is a favorite to score a TD." To Zeus, the Colts needed to press their advantage, and even if they failed, Chicago would have had awful field position.
Most coaches, fans and media would say to take the eight-point lead.
It was this type of situation that prompted criticism of Zeus when Bower and Frigo met with assistant coaches from the St. Louis Rams.
In an interview with the online magazine Gelf, Frigo recalled a Rams coach saying, "There's a momentum and emotional aspect to (football) that your model can't take into account."
The coach said failing in that type of situation would cause players to become "dejected."
Frigo said that reaction was typical of coaches' risk-averse nature, even when the odds favor success.
"They only see the negative side of the equation," he said.
New ideas
Bower and Frigo started building Zeus in 2001. They knew each other through backgammon. Frigo is a former world champion.
A commodities dealer, Frigo saw parallels between backgammon and football, including pauses in the game and "forks in the road" in terms of decisions.
Computers can beat the world's best players in chess and backgammon, but selling Zeus to football people hasn't been easy. It carries a price tag Bower would describe only as six figures.
In a meeting during the Colts' 2005 training camp, Bower said Chris Polian, son of team president Bill Polian, told him "we won't be the first team signing up." The Colts declined an interview request for Polian this week.
One issue is that the NFL prohibits coaches from using computers during games, although Bower said that rule could be overcome by anticipating situations and preparing printed material.
NFL spokesman Greg Aiello explained that while teams use computers for game plans, "the traditional thinking has been that the appeal of the game is the physical competition between players. A battle between computers seems less appealing."
Bower thinks it will require more than just an open-minded coach to embrace Zeus. It will take an open-minded organization, everyone from the owner to the last man on the bench.
That's basically what Cincinnati's Lewis told Bower: "He said, 'If I were to institute ideas like this, the only way I would do it is if the owner of the team told me he wouldn't fire me, because I would be doing something different than everybody in the league.' "
