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Free agents to avoid and some to focus on
Dismiss temptation to sign Garcia, Stallworth, but Schaub, Turner worthy
Running back Jamal Lewis, left, once rushed for 2,000 yards in a single season, but he seems to have been exhausted by that effort ever since, says contributor Ron Borges.
By Ron Borges
MSNBC contributor
Updated: 1:31 p.m. ET March 2, 2007
Soon a lot of money will be spent on a lot of football players who will never pay an adequate return on that investment. This knowledge will not stop many of the NFL's 32 franchises from showering millions of dollars on talent they know in their hearts is suspect. They will do it because they can and because they hope their new employee will although most often he won't.
The salary cap takes a major leap to $109 million on Friday, the opening day of free agency, and more than half the NFL's teams will have $20 million or more in cap space to use if they so choose. As baseball owners proved long ago, when rich men have money and an urge to win they will spend that money in often foolhardy ways, relying more often on a prayer than on proven performance. This year will be no different.
The minute you start saying, "If we can just convince him to put the guns away ...'' or "I think he'll play a lot harder here than he did in Green Bay, Oakland, Cleveland, Philadelphia ...'' or "We'll just coach him up and get that potential out of him ...'' you're already well on your way to blowing a large sum of money.
Fearful of just such a situation developing in a locker room near you, we take a look at an unusual free agency Top 10 — the 10 most likely not to succeed free agents this year. These names were arrived at by combining the likelihood that the player will receive a sizeable payoff with the probability he will not produce anywhere near as he has in the past, if in fact he's performed at all in the past.
So here's one list of 10 guys to beware of if your team has a thick checkbook and a hankering to use it.
Most likely to be overpaid and underwhelming
1. Jamal Lewis, RB: Lewis once rushed for 2,000 yards in a single season. He seems to have been exhausted by that effort ever since. Lewis is a power back who rushed for 1,132 yards but averaged only 3.6 yards a carry, nearly two yards per rush less than three years ago when he gained 2,066 yards in his greatest season. He seems to be slowing down, enough so that the Ravens decided to release him a year after making the decision to keep him instead of his backup, Chester Taylor. Lewis was on the books to earn $10 million next season, including a $5 million roster bonus. The Ravens want Lewis but not at that price. Will someone who knows him less well than they do outbid them?
2. Donte Stallworth, WR: Stallworth came on like gangbusters late in the season after another spotty year in which he was hurt as often as he was on the field. He has the ability to make the big play, as evidenced by his 19.1 yards per catch average, but he's on the shelf too often, having never gotten through a season without injuries problems sidelining him. He's a tease with his explosiveness and obvious physical gifts, but in the end he played his way out of two cities already by not playing often enough and caught only 38 passes in 2006, down from 70 a year before in New Orleans.
3. Patrick Kerney, DE: Teams in need of a pass rusher will look at his relative youth and the fact he had 13 sacks one year with the Falcons and 30 over three seasons and salivate. They'll forget that was three years ago. Maybe a change of scenery is all he needs but he was supposed to be a key element in the rise of Atlanta's defense and he failed to deliver the past two seasons.
4. Leonard Davis, T: Davis is a BIG man who's been an even BIGGER disappointment with the Cardinals, but he's a starting left tackle in a league that puts a premium on such players and he was once considered the best offensive lineman coming out of college football. Unfortunately he hasn't played like it. Overpaying him won't help his overeating or his underachieving ways but someone desperate for a left tackle may do it.
5. Jeff Garcia QB: Garcia played remarkably well for the Eagles after Donovan McNabb went down last year but he's 37 and had completed less than 60 percent of his throws each of the previous three seasons in San Francisco, Cleveland and Detroit before a revival in Philadelphia. Someone will pay him in hopes he's back to being the Pro Bowl player he was for several years with the 49ers. It's more likely at 37 that for a guy whose best years were based as much on his mobility as his throwing arm those eight games in Philly were a fluke, not a renaissance.
6. Ahman Green, RB: Green has rushed for over 1,000 yards six times, including bouncing back from injuries that limited him to five games in 2005 with a 1,059 yards rushing last year while averaging four yards a carry. Those numbers that will probably lead several teams in need of a solid back to get into the bidding. The fact that he caught catching 46 passes for an average of 8.1 yards per catch last year in Green Bay will add to his value. Problem is Green has an alarming penchant for fumbling and he's shown no Tiki Barber-type reversal of those misfortunes. Will that change with an address change?
7. Cory Redding, DT: Redding is either going to be one of the bargains of this year's free agent class or the next Marcellus Wiley, who stole from the teams who signed him twice by getting big paydays and then delivering little in performance, especially during his tenure in Dallas. Redding had done little with the Lions to recommend him for a big free agent payday in his first three seasons — but showing perfect timing — he produced eight sacks in 2006 in 11 games. Teams will often pay big for potential and the Lions believe Redding is ready to bloom, which is why they franchised him. That might mean more if he didn't have only four sacks over the course of his previous three years in Detroit before last season.
8. Travis Fisher, CB: Fisher is a talent but he has been unable to stay on the field for a full season thus far in his career and played in only half the Rams games the past two season. Paying him millions isn't likely to improve his medical condition so if Fisher cashes in and ends up on the sidelines in street clothes too often his new employers will not be happy.
9. Cato June, LB: June may benefit from the Super Bowl haze that often swirls around players going into free agency after their team won the Lombardi trophy. June is a sound player but wasn't a game-breaker for the Colts and he was part of the worst run defense in football. If he's brought in as a complimentary player he would be a help to any team, but if he's paid like a guy who should become a playmaker a major disappointment is likely to follow.
10. Drew Bennett, WR: Bennett is the best of a poor lot of free agent receivers and because of it will very likely be overpaid. Same thing happened a year ago to David Givens, who is a solid No. 2 receiver but came to Bennett's team, the Titans, with a load of expectations on him. Instead of production he suffered through several injuries and was considered a bust. Bennett is the same kind of complimentary player, not the guy who caught 80 passes for 1,247 yards three years ago. he's done half as much since but he'll very likely get paid like he's something he's not — a lead receiver.
CONTINUED: Ah, but there are some values to be had
There will also be good value available this year, even at what will be the top of the pay scale. Which players seem most likely to deliver value for their services? Barring injury, here's one list of likely candidates.
Best values
1. Adalius Thomas, LB: He wants a $18 million signing bonus and will probably get it, likely from the 49ers. Wherever he goes, the 270-pound Thomas appears headed toward making an impact.
2. Nate Clements, CB: He may not remind anyone of Champ Bailey but he's the best corner on the market and that will bring him a vast reward. Unlike the top player at some other positions, Clements will earn it.
3. Eric Steinbach, G: If you need someone to open a hole for you, Steinbach fits the description. He started 62 of 63 games in four years with the Bengals and is a reliable lineman who will upgrade whatever team he goes to even if no one notices but his teammates.
4. Kris Dielman, G: There are a lot of reasons LaDainian Tomlinson is the best back in pro football and Dielman was one of them. He won't be on the market for long. When he signs, another back will be smiling.
5. Kevin Kaesuiharn, S: This guy is a high-impact player who will bring speed and a physical style to the back level of the secondary. If you need a dash of toughness in your secondary, you can do worse than this guy — and many teams will.
6. London Fletcher-Baker, MLB: Everyone keeps saying he's too small and they keep trying to replace him no matter where he goes but he led the Bills last year with 146 tackles and made four interceptions. He's undersized but was just as productive with the Rams before moving to Buffalo. He hits like he's supersized and he'll earn the money he gets paid next season in the middle of someone's defense.
7. Matt Schaub, QB: He's a restricted free agent so a deal will have to be worked out with the Falcons to get him his opportunity. If it comes, people may learn that the best quarterback in Atlanta was the one who wasn't playing.
8. Michael Turner, RB: Turner is a restricted free agent so it will take some effort and some creative thinking to get him loose from the Chargers but he'd be worth the effort and the price. Turner averaged 6.3 yards a carry last season while rushing for 502 yards as a part-time rest stop for LaDainian Tomlinson. Turner is explosive and powerful but will never get his full chance in San Diego as long as LT is healthy. In three seasons of spot duty he's shown what he's capable of, averaging six yards a carry and rushing for 947 yards on only 157 rushes. He might cost someone but he's shown the kind of potential that's worth paying for. He may be the best runner on the free agency list this year.
9. Daniel Graham, TE: Graham is the best blocking tight end in football and the rumor is he's all but set to go to Minnesota, where coach Brad Childress appreciates the hard-nosed approach Graham will bring. He can, at times, make plays downfield in the passing game but his forte is not receiving it's blocking. He'll disappoint by dropping some balls he should catch but if you need someone to protect your quarterback from assault or crack open the edge of an opposing defense for your running game, no one is better.
10. Andre Gurode, G: Gurode looks like he may just be coming into his own as free agency hits for him. He made his first Pro Bowl appearance this year after originally being named a first alternate. It may not be his last free trip to Hawaii to that meaningless game. The team that eventually signs him may play in a few more meaningful games than they're used to because of his presence in their lineup.
So there you have it, 10 to worry about and 10 to look forward to seeing on your team. Which ones your team imports will say a thing or two about where they're headed and what kind of management they have.
Dismiss temptation to sign Garcia, Stallworth, but Schaub, Turner worthy
Running back Jamal Lewis, left, once rushed for 2,000 yards in a single season, but he seems to have been exhausted by that effort ever since, says contributor Ron Borges.
By Ron Borges
MSNBC contributor
Updated: 1:31 p.m. ET March 2, 2007
Soon a lot of money will be spent on a lot of football players who will never pay an adequate return on that investment. This knowledge will not stop many of the NFL's 32 franchises from showering millions of dollars on talent they know in their hearts is suspect. They will do it because they can and because they hope their new employee will although most often he won't.
The salary cap takes a major leap to $109 million on Friday, the opening day of free agency, and more than half the NFL's teams will have $20 million or more in cap space to use if they so choose. As baseball owners proved long ago, when rich men have money and an urge to win they will spend that money in often foolhardy ways, relying more often on a prayer than on proven performance. This year will be no different.
The minute you start saying, "If we can just convince him to put the guns away ...'' or "I think he'll play a lot harder here than he did in Green Bay, Oakland, Cleveland, Philadelphia ...'' or "We'll just coach him up and get that potential out of him ...'' you're already well on your way to blowing a large sum of money.
Fearful of just such a situation developing in a locker room near you, we take a look at an unusual free agency Top 10 — the 10 most likely not to succeed free agents this year. These names were arrived at by combining the likelihood that the player will receive a sizeable payoff with the probability he will not produce anywhere near as he has in the past, if in fact he's performed at all in the past.
So here's one list of 10 guys to beware of if your team has a thick checkbook and a hankering to use it.
Most likely to be overpaid and underwhelming
1. Jamal Lewis, RB: Lewis once rushed for 2,000 yards in a single season. He seems to have been exhausted by that effort ever since. Lewis is a power back who rushed for 1,132 yards but averaged only 3.6 yards a carry, nearly two yards per rush less than three years ago when he gained 2,066 yards in his greatest season. He seems to be slowing down, enough so that the Ravens decided to release him a year after making the decision to keep him instead of his backup, Chester Taylor. Lewis was on the books to earn $10 million next season, including a $5 million roster bonus. The Ravens want Lewis but not at that price. Will someone who knows him less well than they do outbid them?
2. Donte Stallworth, WR: Stallworth came on like gangbusters late in the season after another spotty year in which he was hurt as often as he was on the field. He has the ability to make the big play, as evidenced by his 19.1 yards per catch average, but he's on the shelf too often, having never gotten through a season without injuries problems sidelining him. He's a tease with his explosiveness and obvious physical gifts, but in the end he played his way out of two cities already by not playing often enough and caught only 38 passes in 2006, down from 70 a year before in New Orleans.
3. Patrick Kerney, DE: Teams in need of a pass rusher will look at his relative youth and the fact he had 13 sacks one year with the Falcons and 30 over three seasons and salivate. They'll forget that was three years ago. Maybe a change of scenery is all he needs but he was supposed to be a key element in the rise of Atlanta's defense and he failed to deliver the past two seasons.
4. Leonard Davis, T: Davis is a BIG man who's been an even BIGGER disappointment with the Cardinals, but he's a starting left tackle in a league that puts a premium on such players and he was once considered the best offensive lineman coming out of college football. Unfortunately he hasn't played like it. Overpaying him won't help his overeating or his underachieving ways but someone desperate for a left tackle may do it.
5. Jeff Garcia QB: Garcia played remarkably well for the Eagles after Donovan McNabb went down last year but he's 37 and had completed less than 60 percent of his throws each of the previous three seasons in San Francisco, Cleveland and Detroit before a revival in Philadelphia. Someone will pay him in hopes he's back to being the Pro Bowl player he was for several years with the 49ers. It's more likely at 37 that for a guy whose best years were based as much on his mobility as his throwing arm those eight games in Philly were a fluke, not a renaissance.
6. Ahman Green, RB: Green has rushed for over 1,000 yards six times, including bouncing back from injuries that limited him to five games in 2005 with a 1,059 yards rushing last year while averaging four yards a carry. Those numbers that will probably lead several teams in need of a solid back to get into the bidding. The fact that he caught catching 46 passes for an average of 8.1 yards per catch last year in Green Bay will add to his value. Problem is Green has an alarming penchant for fumbling and he's shown no Tiki Barber-type reversal of those misfortunes. Will that change with an address change?
7. Cory Redding, DT: Redding is either going to be one of the bargains of this year's free agent class or the next Marcellus Wiley, who stole from the teams who signed him twice by getting big paydays and then delivering little in performance, especially during his tenure in Dallas. Redding had done little with the Lions to recommend him for a big free agent payday in his first three seasons — but showing perfect timing — he produced eight sacks in 2006 in 11 games. Teams will often pay big for potential and the Lions believe Redding is ready to bloom, which is why they franchised him. That might mean more if he didn't have only four sacks over the course of his previous three years in Detroit before last season.
8. Travis Fisher, CB: Fisher is a talent but he has been unable to stay on the field for a full season thus far in his career and played in only half the Rams games the past two season. Paying him millions isn't likely to improve his medical condition so if Fisher cashes in and ends up on the sidelines in street clothes too often his new employers will not be happy.
9. Cato June, LB: June may benefit from the Super Bowl haze that often swirls around players going into free agency after their team won the Lombardi trophy. June is a sound player but wasn't a game-breaker for the Colts and he was part of the worst run defense in football. If he's brought in as a complimentary player he would be a help to any team, but if he's paid like a guy who should become a playmaker a major disappointment is likely to follow.
10. Drew Bennett, WR: Bennett is the best of a poor lot of free agent receivers and because of it will very likely be overpaid. Same thing happened a year ago to David Givens, who is a solid No. 2 receiver but came to Bennett's team, the Titans, with a load of expectations on him. Instead of production he suffered through several injuries and was considered a bust. Bennett is the same kind of complimentary player, not the guy who caught 80 passes for 1,247 yards three years ago. he's done half as much since but he'll very likely get paid like he's something he's not — a lead receiver.
CONTINUED: Ah, but there are some values to be had
There will also be good value available this year, even at what will be the top of the pay scale. Which players seem most likely to deliver value for their services? Barring injury, here's one list of likely candidates.
Best values
1. Adalius Thomas, LB: He wants a $18 million signing bonus and will probably get it, likely from the 49ers. Wherever he goes, the 270-pound Thomas appears headed toward making an impact.
2. Nate Clements, CB: He may not remind anyone of Champ Bailey but he's the best corner on the market and that will bring him a vast reward. Unlike the top player at some other positions, Clements will earn it.
3. Eric Steinbach, G: If you need someone to open a hole for you, Steinbach fits the description. He started 62 of 63 games in four years with the Bengals and is a reliable lineman who will upgrade whatever team he goes to even if no one notices but his teammates.
4. Kris Dielman, G: There are a lot of reasons LaDainian Tomlinson is the best back in pro football and Dielman was one of them. He won't be on the market for long. When he signs, another back will be smiling.
5. Kevin Kaesuiharn, S: This guy is a high-impact player who will bring speed and a physical style to the back level of the secondary. If you need a dash of toughness in your secondary, you can do worse than this guy — and many teams will.
6. London Fletcher-Baker, MLB: Everyone keeps saying he's too small and they keep trying to replace him no matter where he goes but he led the Bills last year with 146 tackles and made four interceptions. He's undersized but was just as productive with the Rams before moving to Buffalo. He hits like he's supersized and he'll earn the money he gets paid next season in the middle of someone's defense.
7. Matt Schaub, QB: He's a restricted free agent so a deal will have to be worked out with the Falcons to get him his opportunity. If it comes, people may learn that the best quarterback in Atlanta was the one who wasn't playing.
8. Michael Turner, RB: Turner is a restricted free agent so it will take some effort and some creative thinking to get him loose from the Chargers but he'd be worth the effort and the price. Turner averaged 6.3 yards a carry last season while rushing for 502 yards as a part-time rest stop for LaDainian Tomlinson. Turner is explosive and powerful but will never get his full chance in San Diego as long as LT is healthy. In three seasons of spot duty he's shown what he's capable of, averaging six yards a carry and rushing for 947 yards on only 157 rushes. He might cost someone but he's shown the kind of potential that's worth paying for. He may be the best runner on the free agency list this year.
9. Daniel Graham, TE: Graham is the best blocking tight end in football and the rumor is he's all but set to go to Minnesota, where coach Brad Childress appreciates the hard-nosed approach Graham will bring. He can, at times, make plays downfield in the passing game but his forte is not receiving it's blocking. He'll disappoint by dropping some balls he should catch but if you need someone to protect your quarterback from assault or crack open the edge of an opposing defense for your running game, no one is better.
10. Andre Gurode, G: Gurode looks like he may just be coming into his own as free agency hits for him. He made his first Pro Bowl appearance this year after originally being named a first alternate. It may not be his last free trip to Hawaii to that meaningless game. The team that eventually signs him may play in a few more meaningful games than they're used to because of his presence in their lineup.
So there you have it, 10 to worry about and 10 to look forward to seeing on your team. Which ones your team imports will say a thing or two about where they're headed and what kind of management they have.
