ARTICLE: Labor crisis clearly looming for NFL

Big Dakota

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by John Czarnecki

Sometimes financial well-being simply doesn't compute. In a resort hotel where coffee costs over $6, many an NFL owner was kind of crying last week about money. Basically, they don't like the current disbursement of league revenue, which amounts to around 60 percent of everything to the players.

To a seasoned listener of this league, it is a foregone conclusion that this November these owners will opt out of the current collective bargaining agreement, one they approved 30-2 just before former Commissioner Paul Tagliabue retired. The vote to disapprove the current deal may be the same!



Granted, there is plenty of time to fix labor relations with the NFL Players Association. We're talking about the most popular sport in America, a virtual money-making machine lately. Yes, the salary cap, which is currently $116 million, may rise to $123 million next year, but there seems to be some concerns among many owners, especially those who own and control their own stadiums, that the individual club profit margin has slipped precipitously.
Let's give you a few examples. The St. Louis Rams may be worth $750 million based on the current Forbes structure, but they only cleared $10 million last season. That's really not a lot of money for such a big business franchise. I mean, some quarterbacks make more than that — and there is the rub. Some of these owners are earning less than their best player.

Obviously, there are a few rich teams like the Tampa Bay Bucs that remain $30 million under the salary cap while also producing a hefty profit of over $35 million last season. But teams like the Bucs are an exception, plus they won the South last season.

Markets like Jacksonville, Buffalo, Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego and San Francisco are being squeezed. Through the years, we have heard that Pat Bowlen, owner the Broncos, has never been good with money and now his new stadium and other expenses are pushing him into the red. Bowlen actually laid off employees last month to save a few dollars.

Nobody is opening their books, but little of this makes sense to the ticket-buying public. Invesco Field is sold out every game and the Broncos are very popular. How can the sky be falling?

Well, everything is going up, including player costs and coaching salaries. Wayne Weaver may want to sell his Jacksonville franchise, but he recently gave Jack Del Rio, his head coach, a raise to $5 million. Weaver felt compelled to keep Del Rio and pay him the going rate while his profit margin dwindles. It's called keeping up with the Joneses.

By opting out of the current deal, union boss Gene Upshaw believes the owners will go on a spending spree should the players reach the uncapped season of 2010. When you see very average offensive linemen earning $6 million a season, it is easy to accept Upshaw's point of view. But there are mechanisms in the deal — free agency goes from four to six years in an uncapped season, plus the franchise tag still exists and the top eight teams will be limited in what they can spend. Fans think Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, who is currently charging $150,000 simply to have the right to purchase tickets in his new stadium, will buy players like the Yankees and Red Sox do in baseball.

Jones says he won't do it because history says the biggest payroll doesn't always win. Football is a team sport that relies on locker-room chemistry and solid coaching. After all, the Patriots won three titles with some bargain-basement performers and Tom Brady.

Also, the mechanism for 2010 is clear that the top eight teams record-wise from the 2009 season will be limited in their pursuit of free agents. In order to offer a player a $10 million contract, they must lose a player or players of equal value. Typically, though, in free agency the non-playoff teams spend the most money on free agents like the Jets, Raiders, Eagles, Vikings and 49ers have done this off-season. This is what Upshaw and the players are hoping for in 2010; that the weak teams will go shopping with unlimited checkbooks.

At the recent meetings in Palm Beach, I spoke with two owners of non-playoff teams who claim to have cleared $10 million or less this past season. They both said that they would use the 2010 season to clean up their economic mess.

"If I spend $40 or $50 million less on player salaries that year, I can start to get a handle on my franchise debt," one NFC owner said. "I think many of us who are in the middle of the economic ladder will curtail player spending and try to get our own houses in order. I guess a lot of us were either naive or didn't see the future very well when we agreed to this deal."

Who knows how serious the owners are about curtailing player payrolls? This is the same group that has gambled on the NFL Network and has collectively decided to stay the course there despite revenues well below what the eight-game package would have been worth had it been sold to Comcast or a national network.

But for the first time I actually heard an owner talking about a lockout for the 2011 season if there is no new deal with the players or if the federal court system doesn't impose a rational formula for labor peace. I was around for the 1987 season when three regular-season games were played by scabs off the street. I also witnessed the 1982 season that lost seven games to a strike.

"We're prepared to do that all again," the other owner told me. "I'm confident that the fans will come back even if they miss four to eight games that year. We have to get our finances under control."
With the Giants and Jets embarking on a $1.6 billion stadium in New Jersey and Jones building another billion-dollar park in Arlington, it doesn't make sense to have a dark cloud over the NFL's future. But we all know that people don't settle unless it makes sense to both sides. Right now, the current CBA doesn't make any sense to the owners and they sound ready for a serious fight.
 

MichaelWinicki

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At some point in the next few years, we will not have football like we've come to expect. It's going to happen. You have a lot of hard-headed rich guys on both sides that are going to dig-in their heels.

It won't be pretty.
 

ZeroClub

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The single biggest threat to the NFL is its own greed.
 

lspain1

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It's a shame but this article sure has the ring of truth to it.
 

TheCount

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It worked so well for Hockey, what could possibly go wrong?
 

BigDPlayer

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Is it greed, really? On the part of the players union, yes, I agree.

My problem lies mostly in the ridiculous nature of the draft. I mean, cmon, an unproven player getting $30 million guaranteed??!! That's just wrong. I would love to see the first five teams simply not take a player at all.

Regardless, I think the players union is out of control and if the owners aren't making money... shut it down until the players learn they have to earn it.
 

TheCount

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BigDPlayer;2029090 said:
Is it greed, really? On the part of the players union, yes, I agree.

My problem lies mostly in the ridiculous nature of the draft. I mean, cmon, an unproven player getting $30 million guaranteed??!! That's just wrong. I would love to see the first five teams simply not take a player at all.

Regardless, I think the players union is out of control and if the owners aren't making money... shut it down until the players learn they have to earn it.

The owners aren't making money?
 

Derinyar

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Smacks of the baseball strike in some of their thinking. fans don't come back when you tell them to. It took the homerun race to get baseball back, and another few years after that to get most teams back to what they were before.


Hockey isn't likely to get that far back, but at least they had a situation where most of the teams, supposedly, were losing money.
 

ABQcowboyJR

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The players Union is the greedy party. Unions are only needed when the work force is being treated unfairly. This as we all know is not the case. The owners will win the war and the game will be the only thing to suffer.
 

links18

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Great! Can't wait to see another season of substitute (scab) football! Maybe we will see such greats as Woody Dantzler, Jason Tucker and James Whalen back in a Cowboys uniform again. That said, if we did have another year of scab football, who do you think would be the most likely Cowboy to cross the picket line? Did Tony Dorsett cross the line during the original scab year?
 

ABQcowboyJR

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links18;2029341 said:
Great! Can't wait to see another season of substitute (scab) football! Maybe we will see such greats as Woody Dantzler, Jason Tucker and James Whalen back in a Cowboys uniform again. That said, if we did have another year of scab football, who do you think would be the most likely Cowboy to cross the picket line? Did Tony Dorsett cross the line during the original scab year?
Dware or Witten
 

zrinkill

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Maybe the Skins can actually win a Superbowl again.

They love strike years ..... ;)
 

adamknite

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zrinkill;2029353 said:
Maybe the Skins can actually win a Superbowl again.

They love strike years ..... ;)

Seriously..... don't even joke like that.


:p:
 

tskyler

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Surely not a popular opinion but I say bring it on....

1. I think the players are in for a whipping. I think there will be a rollback of certain things that are obnoxious these days especially the rookie payments in the draft. Wouldn't it be fun to see a draft again where the high picking teams aren't scared to death?
2. Dallas will use the uncapped time to load up on talent long term. Kinda a karmic revenge for the cap kicking in just when we were on top? (I know the cap was Jerry's idea but...)
3. I really enjoyed scab football. (I'm not kidding) There was a crazy energy and anything could happen. I think football is different than Baseball or Hockey. The game itself is much more exciting than the players. For me college BB and the NCAA tournament are fun to watch even though I fall asleep during the pro game. Football is similar but different. Football for me is fun at every level as long as I have a team to root for. I enjoy a high school game almost as much as a pro game. I could care less about a particular set of players. Yes the quality would drop significantly but it still guys hitting each other hard. And the scab's would have a whole lot more to win or lose.
4. Anything that has a bunch of union folks on the street crying about how other millionaire's shouldn't give their jobs to someone else brings just a little smile to my face.

Skyler.
 

DWhite Fan

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links18;2029341 said:
Great! Can't wait to see another season of substitute (scab) football! Maybe we will see such greats as Woody Dantzler, Jason Tucker and James Whalen back in a Cowboys uniform again. That said, if we did have another year of scab football, who do you think would be the most likely Cowboy to cross the picket line? Did Tony Dorsett cross the line during the original scab year?

Yep. Him, Danny White, Randy White, and maybe one other.

The thing that gets me goes to the heart of the problem, the owners cannot control themselves. Even with the cap in place, you got owners running their teams into the ground. I hear alot of "What the market will bear" comments, but really, it is "What the knucleheaded Owners will pay." Case in point is like what a poster said earlier, $30 million for a unproven draft pick. Some of these owners make you wonder how they ever got rich in the first place (probably inherited their wealth). I refuse to feel sorry for guys that are spending their franchises into financial trouble.

What is the biggest danger that the NFL faces? The players who sign the huge contracts, or the owner's stupid enough to offer them?

This idea about the fans being ok with 4 to eight games cancelled by a strike/lock out is interesting. Wonder if the "fans" will be ok if a Super Bowl is lost due to this nonsense like happened with baseball's World Series in the early 90s?:confused:
 

Eskimo

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tskyler;2029366 said:
Surely not a popular opinion but I say bring it on....

2. Dallas will use the uncapped time to load up on talent long term. Kinda a karmic revenge for the cap kicking in just when we were on top? (I know the cap was Jerry's idea but...)

If we are amongst the top 8 teams we won't be able to sign a FA without losing a FA of higher value. It would however give us a chance to re-work some contracts with big roster bonuses assuming a cap gets re-instituted later and this would help us maintain some of the talent we have accumulated on the team.

If we aren't among the top 8, JJ could go on a bit of a spending spree, but for some reason I don't think he will. He doesn't seem to have the Steinbrenner type mentality.
 

links18

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This idea about the fans being ok with 4 to eight games cancelled by a strike/lock out is interesting. Wonder if the "fans" will be ok if a Super Bowl is lost due to this nonsense like happened with baseball's World Series in the early 90s?:confused:[/QUOTE]

Yeah, that strike basically killed the Montreal Expos chance for a World Series and with it baseball in Montreal itself, the reason why there is now a team in DC.
 

tskyler

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Eskimo;2029371 said:
If we aren't among the top 8, JJ could go on a bit of a spending spree, but for some reason I don't think he will. He doesn't seem to have the Steinbrenner type mentality.

I've seen people say that (I think it was a Steven Jones statement last week and I guess he should know) but I wonder if that is a flawed analysis. Jerry never really had the cash to throw around. He basically bet his entire fortune for the Cowboys in the early days and could have lost everything if he wasn't frugal. (and the league didnt explode after he bought the team) He had a small stadium with little revenue coming in. He now has a huge stadium and he may be capless. He has ancillary revenue out the wazoo... My gut says Jerry may begin to act like the Boss now that he has the means.
 

tskyler

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links18;2029413 said:
This idea about the fans being ok with 4 to eight games cancelled by a strike/lock out is interesting. Wonder if the "fans" will be ok if a Super Bowl is lost due to this nonsense like happened with baseball's World Series in the early 90s?:confused:

Yeah, that strike basically killed the Montreal Expos chance for a World Series and with it baseball in Montreal itself, the reason why there is now a team in DC.

Your analysis is the only sane extrapolation from the data available. Both Baseball and Hockey were decimated by strikes.

However, although I have nothing but my own feelings to go on, I think football is different. The NFL is the premiere brand. I don't believe it is a fad like Basketball's growth with Jordan in the 90's. Neither is it Baseball. Baseball had over 20 years of decline before the strike made it clear that it wasn't the national pastime anymore. Kids for the past decade had started moving from Baseball to Soccer. With football we have very recent episodes of other leagues trying to eclipse the NFL. The XFL, the USFL, Arena, etc. None have captured much of a following. I guess you could argue that it is the lower quality in those leagues...

However, I believe with Football, the average fan is attracted to the team not the players. If you have a scab season rather than a shutdown of play, I don't think most people will care or notice. I think ratings may even go up for the novelty. I think season ticket sales may be down but with seat licenses requiring an initial buy in and continued purchases in many stadiums, how many people will see it as stupid to defer over some lost games even if a strike lasted not 8 games but 2 years? Regular attendance may dip a bit but with resale ticket prices so high, maybe only the scalpers will be hurt. Oh well, I guessing but thats what I would bet on little to no evidence.

Skyler
 
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