At some point, teams are going to shift their thinking on QB contracts

[Verdict]

I think everything runs in cycles, and the QB market has become such a high percentage of the cap that eventually the pendulum will have to swing back the other way.

Running backs were considered the franchise player 20 years ago. Then over time the position became devalued. Now it seems to be going back the other way.

It's one thing to have Tom Brady eating up 10 to 15 percent of your cap, but it's a very different matter if you have Andy Dalton eating up 75 percent of that.

Does a team with Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Case Keenam, or the like have a high probability of beating a Brady led team? Probably not, in large part to the QB deficit.

Teams are winning SBs with QBs on their rookie deals. Russell Wilson is a recent example of it, as was Ruthlessraper. Dak won 13 games as a rookie. That just goes to show you that if you surround a young QB with a lot of talent he can win.

Conversely, if you pay a QB to carry your team, he had better be able to carry the team. I like Dak Prescott, even though I think Tony should have been the QB when he was healthy. I'm still a Dak fan. But to pay Dak $30M per year would be beyond stupid.

Offer Dak a good deal. $20M per year for 3 years total is plenty. Then they can check out his contract again in two years. If Dak won't go for that, make him play for peanuts this year and if he looks like he is going to sit out, draft a QB early.

If Dak wants outrageous money (he may not be looking for outrageous money) play him and tag him twice. But realistically, there is no way a team is going to be able to afford to sign a player after that second tag, because all of the leverage goes to the player at that point.

 

[Stash]

I think everything runs in cycles, and the QB market has become such a high percentage of the cap that eventually the pendulum will have to swing back the other way.

Running backs were considered the franchise player 20 years ago. Then over time the position became devalued. Now it seems to be going back the other way.

It's one thing to have Tom Brady eating up 10 to 15 percent of your cap, but it's a very different matter if you have Andy Dalton eating up 75 percent of that.

Does a team with Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Case Keenam, or the like have a high probability of beating a Brady led team? Probably not, in large part to the QB deficit.

Teams are winning SBs with QBs on their rookie deals. Russell Wilson is a recent example of it, as was Ruthlessraper. Dak won 13 games as a rookie. That just goes to show you that if you surround a young QB with a lot of talent he can win.

Conversely, if you pay a QB to carry your team, he had better be able to carry the team. I like Dak Prescott, even though I think Tony should have been the QB when he was healthy. I'm still a Dak fan. But to pay Dak $30M per year would be beyond stupid.

Offer Dak a good deal. $20M per year for 3 years total is plenty. Then they can check out his contract again in two years. If Dak won't go for that, make him play for peanuts this year and if he looks like he is going to sit out, draft a QB early.

If Dak wants outrageous money (he may not be looking for outrageous money) play him and tag him twice. But realistically, there is no way a team is going to be able to afford to sign a player after that second tag, because all of the leverage goes to the player at that point.

I agree that the current situation has to change and the salaries are just out of hand, to the point where merely good quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins are getting $28 million a year fully guaranteed for three years. That's insanity, and the Vikings must already have buyers' remorse. And the Commanders do for sure as well. They got fleeced in that Alex Smith deal, even before the injury, but are now sunk paying $42 million to a quarterback who may never play again.

And I don't think the Packers will be able to contend again as long as Aaron Rodgers is taking up so much of their cap. He's a great quarterback, but not even the very best can carry a team single-handedly and I think Green Bay finds that out the hard way.

Like you, I would offer Prescott the $20 million per year deal now, and if he wants more, I'm willing to let this year play out and franchise tag him for 2020, and possibly 2021. At that point, either I'm sure he's the guy and I happily back up the truck, or I'm sure he's not and I've had two more years to be sure of that.

 

[Verdict]

I agree that the current situation has to change and the salaries are just out of hand, to the point where merely good quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins are getting $28 million a year fully guaranteed for three years. That's insanity, and the Vikings must already have buyers' remorse. And the Commanders do for sure as well. They got fleeced in that Alex Smith deal, even before the injury, but are now sunk paying $42 million to a quarterback who may never play again.

And I don't think the Packers will be able to contend again as long as Aaron Rodgers is taking up so much of their cap. He's a great quarterback, but not even the very best can carry a team single-handedly and I think Green Bay finds that out the hard way.

Like you, I would offer Prescott the $20 million per year deal now, and if he wants more, I'm willing to let this year play out and franchise tag him for 2020, and possibly 2021. At that point, either I'm sure he's the guy and I happily back up the truck, or I'm sure he's not and I've had two more years to be sure of that.

Spot on. You can take a risk on a rookie QB and recover from it. If you swing and miss on a Kirk Cousins or Garroppolo, you are seriously behind the 8 ball.

At some point teams are going to have to wise up on these journeyman QBs and make them incentive laden deals with a low floor.

Peyton Manning was one of the greatest QBs of all time but he gutted his team with the exhorbitant cap percentage he took up and it eventually left the Colts in a lurch.

Equally problematic is lots of little cap hits with dead money on the books. The draft is the way to even put those bumps, but if you draft poorly, and don't have cheap labor to even it out, a bad QB contract, dead money, or allocating too much of your cap in one player is a certain recipe for disaster.

The Patriots aren't great at drafting, but hey seldom give out Mega contracts to any player (especially 3rd contracts) because they aren't bucking the odds.

 

[xwalker]

I think everything runs in cycles, and the QB market has become such a high percentage of the cap that eventually the pendulum will have to swing back the other way.

Running backs were considered the franchise player 20 years ago. Then over time the position became devalued. Now it seems to be going back the other way.

It's one thing to have Tom Brady eating up 10 to 15 percent of your cap, but it's a very different matter if you have Andy Dalton eating up 75 percent of that.

Does a team with Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Case Keenam, or the like have a high probability of beating a Brady led team? Probably not, in large part to the QB deficit.

Teams are winning SBs with QBs on their rookie deals. Russell Wilson is a recent example of it, as was Ruthlessraper. Dak won 13 games as a rookie. That just goes to show you that if you surround a young QB with a lot of talent he can win.

Conversely, if you pay a QB to carry your team, he had better be able to carry the team. I like Dak Prescott, even though I think Tony should have been the QB when he was healthy. I'm still a Dak fan. But to pay Dak $30M per year would be beyond stupid.

Offer Dak a good deal. $20M per year for 3 years total is plenty. Then they can check out his contract again in two years. If Dak won't go for that, make him play for peanuts this year and if he looks like he is going to sit out, draft a QB early.

If Dak wants outrageous money (he may not be looking for outrageous money) play him and tag him twice. But realistically, there is no way a team is going to be able to afford to sign a player after that second tag, because all of the leverage goes to the player at that point.

I think teams would like to do that but I don't think it will happen.

Many GMs need to win now to keep their jobs.

How many QBs that make it to the Super Bowl are not either a high draft pick or high paid veteran?

Brady - 27M cap hit in 2018 despite "bargain" contract.

Goff - Top 5 pick.

Wentz - Top 5 pick

Russell Wilson is the only one that comes to mind in recent years that was not a 1st round pick and still on his rookie contract.

Good teams
Want to go for it while they're good plus they have a bottom of the 1st pick.

Middle of the Road teams
Don't have a top 10 pick but if they're middle of the road and need a QB, then they probably have a good roster other than QB. They either need to trade up or pay for a veteran QB. Trading up to top 5 requires many draft picks.

Bad Teams
If they need a QB, they'll draft one; although not always (Cleveland in 2017, Giants in 2018).


I think some teams will take the approach of building up the non-QB talent on the roster before adding the high pick or expensive veteran QB.

In the past bad teams have used high picks on QBs and then dumped then into a terrible roster. By the time the roster is good, that QB is getting close to free agency.

 

[Hawkeye19]

QB is the premier position in football and it will always command top dollar because franchise caliber QBs are rare-- so demand is high, supply is low. Simple economics. What is killing the cap is that the market for other positions continues to balloon astronomically. Virtually any pro bowl caliber player can cash in on huge guaranteed deals now.

 

[Corso]

I think everything runs in cycles, and the QB market has become such a high percentage of the cap that eventually the pendulum will have to swing back the other way.

Running backs were considered the franchise player 20 years ago. Then over time the position became devalued. Now it seems to be going back the other way.

It's one thing to have Tom Brady eating up 10 to 15 percent of your cap, but it's a very different matter if you have Andy Dalton eating up 75 percent of that.

Does a team with Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Case Keenam, or the like have a high probability of beating a Brady led team? Probably not, in large part to the QB deficit.

Teams are winning SBs with QBs on their rookie deals. Russell Wilson is a recent example of it, as was Ruthlessraper. Dak won 13 games as a rookie. That just goes to show you that if you surround a young QB with a lot of talent he can win.

Conversely, if you pay a QB to carry your team, he had better be able to carry the team. I like Dak Prescott, even though I think Tony should have been the QB when he was healthy. I'm still a Dak fan. But to pay Dak $30M per year would be beyond stupid.

Offer Dak a good deal. $20M per year for 3 years total is plenty. Then they can check out his contract again in two years. If Dak won't go for that, make him play for peanuts this year and if he looks like he is going to sit out, draft a QB early.

If Dak wants outrageous money (he may not be looking for outrageous money) play him and tag him twice. But realistically, there is no way a team is going to be able to afford to sign a player after that second tag, because all of the leverage goes to the player at that point.

Remember when there was no cap on drafted rookie deals and goobs were getting insane contracts before they even touched an NFL field?
They ended that, didn't they?

I can see a Max Player cap like the NBA has in the next CBA.

Shoot, apparently several NFL owners have already approached Adam Silver to be their Commissioner. That says they like what he's doing over putz-face.

 

[Rockport]

How long before the first crap on Dak post?

 

[Corso]

I think the NFL should go into a flexible, soft cap like the NBA.
Something that rewards a team for drafting well and keeping their own.

It instills more brand loyalty, for one.

 

[Corso]

How long before the first crap on Dak post?

Okay, I'll do it:
I don't like his teeth!

 

[conner01]

I agree that the current situation has to change and the salaries are just out of hand, to the point where merely good quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins are getting $28 million a year fully guaranteed for three years. That's insanity, and the Vikings must already have buyers' remorse. And the Commanders do for sure as well. They got fleeced in that Alex Smith deal, even before the injury, but are now sunk paying $42 million to a quarterback who may never play again.

And I don't think the Packers will be able to contend again as long as Aaron Rodgers is taking up so much of their cap. He's a great quarterback, but not even the very best can carry a team single-handedly and I think Green Bay finds that out the hard way.

Like you, I would offer Prescott the $20 million per year deal now, and if he wants more, I'm willing to let this year play out and franchise tag him for 2020, and possibly 2021. At that point, either I'm sure he's the guy and I happily back up the truck, or I'm sure he's not and I've had two more years to be sure of that.

I think 20 is fair
I wouldn’t mind building in some incentives to make it better if he earns them
The QB contracts are crazy and some day they may swing back but barring a change in the CBA I don’t see it changing anytime soon
The rules favor the passing game so much I think it is a big part of it being a passing league
Pass rushers and pass throwers get paid huge money

 

[Cattle_Rancher]

QBs been getting the big money for as long as I can remember. Yeah these contracts sound high but what percentage of the cap is 32 million I think the cap is like 195? I’m not sure. Back in the 90s Troy got a big deal and Drew Bledsoe got like 10 years 100 mil but I think the cap was only like 80 back then not sure. So what was the percentage of the cap eaten by Troy and Bledsoe compared to the percentage of the cap eaten by Rogers or Cousins? Some of y’all are better with numbers and digging up info like what the cap was back then would love to see comparisons.

 

[Mr_437]

Teams should definitely find an alternative to blowing a high percentage of their cap on a dud QB. There needs to be imaginary cap for 2nd tier to 3rd tier QBs... everybody not worth 20M +.

 

[T-RO]

I think everything runs in cycles, and the QB market has become such a high percentage of the cap that eventually the pendulum will have to swing back the other way.

Premium value of quarterbacks won't change. EVER.

Quarterback value has always gone in one direction only: UP.

 

[CouchCoach]

The NFL will be like the addict needing rehab, not until they've hit rock bottom. The pain of realizing they've spent too much and the dead money hampers their improvement, then they'll get it.

The problem with the cap is it makes some spend frivolously because they've got to spend the money. As long as the cap continues to increase as it has been doing, the pain will not be felt. It's not like it's real money.

 

[SSoup]

I think teams will continue, as the cap increases (and the rookie deals and the league-minimum both continue to be relatively low), to pay the premium positions bigger and bigger chunks in order to retain them.

They basically have to.

The second you decide to be "the grown up in the room" who brings sensibility back to how well-paid a given position is, you'll immediately get those guys swiped by teams who have holes at those premium positions and tons of money to fill the hole.

QB. LT. Pass rushers. And CB.

It's why our fans would flip their wigs if we let Lawrence walk right now. Our fanbase and media would immediately pitch hissy fits, screaming: "Why'd Jerry let a premium pass-rush piece leave just to draw a financial line in the sand to save a few bucks? We didn't have an elite replacement ready."

Also, the premium positions hoovering up a disproportionate amount necessarily means that it's dampening the market value of other positions (because that's how zero sum games work, where one position's gains are other positions' losses). So the result of refusing to "overpay" a premium position means not much except that you're now uniquely positioned to overpay non-premium positions (paying bigger amounts than necessary to non-premium positions, amounts that can't/won't be matched by teams who are already paying the market rate for their premium positions). Which, okay. It's just that it's weird to cry about not wanting to overpay premium positions just so you can turn around and overpay non-premium starters and backups and special teamers.

 

[Vinnie2u]

I look at MLB Harper and Machado are holding out for 300 million dollar contracts. Spring training started and they still on the streets. The owners have been burned by so many bad contracts that they ain’t paying up. The market eventually evens out. Same thing with QB’s.

 

[GenoT]

Wake me up when top-tier QB salaries start going down.

Until then, keep rubbing that magic lamp and wishing.

 

[Risen Star]

I can't imagine a scenario where the most important position on the field isn't also the best paid.

 

[GenoT]

I can't imagine a scenario where the most important position on the field isn't also the best paid.

Then ratchet-up “best paid” for the top-shelf QBs...

 

[StarBoyz83]

It's insane what they make. If an average qb like dak will get around 30 mil. How much will mahomes get in a few years? lol