Bill Belichick Fourth-and-2 Calculator

[Temo]

You can enter your own estimate of the probabilities of the Colts scoring either after a failed fourth down or a punt, and then find out if Belichick made the right decision based on your own opinions.

http://belichick-decision.heroku.com/

 

[Temo]

I can't find any kind of reasonable probability combination that DOESN'T make it a good decision to go for the 1st down.

Also, a good blog entry on the decision: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4671

Break even points:

28 yds 68 yds

90% 36%
85% 34%
80% 32%
75% 30%
70% 28%
65% 26%
60% 24%
55% 22%
50% 20%
45% 18%
40% 16%
35% 14%
30% 12%
25% 10%
So, if you think the Colts had a 75% chance of scoring from the Patriots' 28, then if you think the Colts had a better than 30% chance of driving 68 yards for the score, Belichick was right; if you think the Colts had a lower than 30% chance of driving that far, Belichick was wrong. If you think the Colts had a 90% chance of scoring once the Pats missed the conversion, then if you think the Colts had a better than 36% chance of scoring the game-winning touchdown from the 68, then Belichick was right; if Indianapolis' odds would have been lower than that, Belichick was wrong.

 

[JD_KaPow]

The important thing here is that the decision there is a really close one - even if he made the wrong choice, it's not at all the completely boneheaded move people are making it out to be. As usually, all the commentators are using hindsight to evaluate the decision. If they'd gotten the 1st-down spot, the narrative would be completely different.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

I've been laughing at this since last night. If Faulk catches the ball cleanly, and they get that first down, the media, and most of the fans, would be hanging all over his nuts for what a genius he is for showing that kind of guts.

Since Faulk bobbled the ball, and missed, that makes Bill a complete idiot. That's football I guess.

 

[Vtwin]

While we're using very fuzzy math here, I doubt you can come up with convincing math that says it was overwhelmingly a bad call to go for it here.

LOL

Ya think?!

Let me take stab at some convincing math to indicate that it was a bad call.

70 yards is greater then 30 yards.

There. I'm convinced.

 

[joseephuss]

Belicheck must have read this article about high schools and punting.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1160256/index.htm

I thought it was a bad decision that had a bad outcome. I would have considered it a bad decision with a good outcome had Faulk not bobbled the ball.

I always hear people say that coaches call plays expecting them to work. Of course they do, but they have to make some of those decisions on what if those plays do not work. What kind of position does a failed play put the team in at that point? This decision put the Pats in a very bad position when it did not work.

The Pats also could have gone ultra conservative and run the ball on third down, which would have either caused the clock to run down to the 2 minute warning or forced the Colts to use their final timeout. Not that passing on 3rd down was a bad decision, but they could have just gone another direction on that whole series.

 

[Temo]

Let me quote a Colts fan for you:

"As a Colts fan, my gut, immediate reaction was "oh no", and I'm not a pessimistic fan by nature. I was just a lot more comfortable with "Peyton has 2 minutes and timeouts trying to drive 70 yards to win this" than I was with "we have to stop Brady and Moss/Welker from getting 2 yards on this play, or the game is over"."

 

[Sonny#9]

Didn't Barry Switzer make this same mistake against the Eagles in 96 or so? I remember Spurrier going for it inside the 30 as well, against the Seahawks in '03 I believe...

I think it was a gutsy move -- but definitely the wrong one -- and not just in hindsight. Leading, you have to punt that ball. I don't care how good your defense is playing, you cannot risk giving Manning that short of a field.

 

[UKCowboysFan]

I guess it all comes down to one thing, which do you trust more.

That your defence can stop the Colts driving 70 yards to score
or that your offence can make 2 yards on one play.


It would be interesting to know what he would do if that situation arose again