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The New Orleans Saints will look to end a six-game home losing streak both straight-up and against the spread when they host the Dallas Cowboys in the Week 4 Sunday night game. Both teams are coming off losses last week without their starting quarterbacks, as Drew Brees (shoulder) of the Saints and Tony Romo (collarbone) of the Cowboys sat out with injuries.
Point spread: The Saints opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.9-17.9 Saints
Why the Cowboys can cover the spread
Dallas should be able to learn from last week’s disappointing home loss to the Atlanta Falcons, as the team blew a 28-17 halftime lead by getting away from the running game and allowing 22 unanswered points. Brandon Weeden did not play bad in his first start of the season at quarterback in place of Romo, he just ran a conservative offense and does not have the experience to make plays late in games when it matters.
However, Weeden can only get better and has a strong rushing attack to support him, as running backs Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar were all factors throughout the game. Each of them has a strength that can be used collectively to expose the New Orleans defense like other teams have in the first three games.
Why the Saints can cover the spread
Like Weeden, new Saints starting quarterback Luke McCown should improve with every game. McCown looked good at times in a 27-22 loss to the Carolina Panthers last week, doing just enough to help his team cover the spread as 10-point underdogs.
While New Orleans has not performed well at home lately, a different offensive game plan that features the running game more could help the team end its skid. Atlanta’s Devonta Freeman had a career game on the ground against the Cowboys, so a heavy dose of Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson could do the job even if Brees returns.
Smart pick
The last four meetings have each gone over the total, but the quarterback situations for both teams change the offensive outlook for them significantly. This is a prime-time matchup that bettors expect to be high scoring, so the number will likely be a bit inflated even though oddsmakers will take the injuries into consideration. Regardless, this will be more of a defensive battle with the better running game deciding the outcome. For that reason, points will be tougher to produce, and the total will dip under this time.
Betting trends
The Saints are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against the Cowboys.
The Saints are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games at home.
The total has gone over in five of the Saints’ last six games in October.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
Read more Dallas Cowboys news on BleacherReport.com
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Point spread: The Saints opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.9-17.9 Saints
Why the Cowboys can cover the spread
Dallas should be able to learn from last week’s disappointing home loss to the Atlanta Falcons, as the team blew a 28-17 halftime lead by getting away from the running game and allowing 22 unanswered points. Brandon Weeden did not play bad in his first start of the season at quarterback in place of Romo, he just ran a conservative offense and does not have the experience to make plays late in games when it matters.
However, Weeden can only get better and has a strong rushing attack to support him, as running backs Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar were all factors throughout the game. Each of them has a strength that can be used collectively to expose the New Orleans defense like other teams have in the first three games.
Why the Saints can cover the spread
Like Weeden, new Saints starting quarterback Luke McCown should improve with every game. McCown looked good at times in a 27-22 loss to the Carolina Panthers last week, doing just enough to help his team cover the spread as 10-point underdogs.
While New Orleans has not performed well at home lately, a different offensive game plan that features the running game more could help the team end its skid. Atlanta’s Devonta Freeman had a career game on the ground against the Cowboys, so a heavy dose of Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson could do the job even if Brees returns.
Smart pick
The last four meetings have each gone over the total, but the quarterback situations for both teams change the offensive outlook for them significantly. This is a prime-time matchup that bettors expect to be high scoring, so the number will likely be a bit inflated even though oddsmakers will take the injuries into consideration. Regardless, this will be more of a defensive battle with the better running game deciding the outcome. For that reason, points will be tougher to produce, and the total will dip under this time.
Betting trends
The Saints are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against the Cowboys.
The Saints are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games at home.
The total has gone over in five of the Saints’ last six games in October.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
Read more Dallas Cowboys news on BleacherReport.com
Continue reading...