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They likely wouldn't have been in contention all the way until Week 17 last year if Murray hadn't averaged more yards per carry than any back in football with at least 150 attempts. They also likely wouldn't be 2-1 right now if not for Murray's league-leading 385 rushing yards.
ESPN.com's Todd Archer listed some impressive stats:
According to Elias, Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray is the fifth player in NFL history with at least 100 rush yards and a rushing touchdown in each of his team's first three games of a season. It's the longest streak since Curtis Martin began the 2004 season also with three straight games for the New York Jets.
From a productivity standpoint, the Cowboys truly haven't had a back like this since Emmitt Smith.
But Murray has one major problem—he keeps fumbling. He's coughed the ball up once in four consecutive games dating game to last year's finale. This season, he and Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bobby Rainey are the only non-quarterbacks in football with more than one fumble lost.
When you have a defense that is as battered and bruised as Dallas', you simply can't afford to give possessions away that frequently.
Head coach Jason Garrett spoke with ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon about this issue:
Obviously, we have to make sure that we correct this issue with him and with everybody on our team who possesses the football. You can’t put the ball on the ground. Those are big plays. Those are game-changing plays. He’s done a great job overcoming it within the game. We’ve done a good job overcoming it in two of the three games, but we certainly have to do better in that area.
Murray has responded well. His fumble in Week 1 came on his first touch of the season, but he was lights-out from that point forward. His fumbles in Weeks 2 and 3 also came in the first quarter, but he wasn't fazed going forward.
He didn't play well against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17 last year, but even that fumble came on the game's first possession, and he never coughed it up again.
That's not good enough, though. The Cowboys can't give the ball away consistently, even if it's early and the problem seems to disappear after that. Murray simply can't afford to fumble anymore, period.
Despite the fact that he leads the NFL in rushing, Murray is actually producing negative numbers on Advanced Football Analytics in terms of win probability and expected points added—both overall and on a per-game basis.
Those advanced stats are "the measure of a player’s impact on the outcome of a game" based on "the plays in which that player was directly involved," per the site's founder, Brian Burke.
So is it possible Murray is actually hurting the Cowboys more than he's helping them? That's up for debate. But the real question is if this will become a habit the 26-year-old can't kick. Thing is, during the first 36 games of his career, he fumbled just six times in total, losing two.
So what the hell is going on?
Murray told MacMahon that he's disappointed in himself and has "to get it fixed." But according to Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram ( h/t Pro Football Talk), he believes bad luck has been a factor.
"It’s been different angles, just different things happened—kind of bad luck," Murray said. "I don’t stress too much over those things. Obviously, I’m upset about what happened, but I’ve got to move on and have a short memory about it."
In one sense, luck hasn't been on his side. Fumble recoveries are basically random. While his own team recovered four of the first six fumbles of Murray's career, the last four have all been recovered by the opposing defense.
That's tough luck, although it's also revenge from the law of averages. Losing six out of 10 career fumbles is pretty close to fair.
But luck doesn't have to be a factor if you don't put the ball on the ground in the first place.
On that Week 17 fumble against Philly, Eagles linebacker Mychal Kendricks did a great job of piercing the ball with his head in order to jar it loose:
But look at Murray's left hand. That has to habitually come down to support the ball when contact is coming from that angle. I realize another hit was coming and Murray was trying to protect himself, but it was first down and he didn't absolutely have to charge over Kendricks for an extra yard or two.
Know when to fold 'em.
And as backs are told from a young age, hold it high and tight. That is not what Murray is doing there.
On his first fumble this year, he was simply overpowered by a slew of San Francisco defenders:
However, if your hands are first on the ball, that's a lot harder for defenders to do. In this case, Murray had been running rather loosely with it in his left hand and was slow to pull his right hand in, leaving the ball partially exposed in order for Dan Skuta to gain leverage:
The Week 2 fumble was actually caused by Murray's teammate, wide receiver Devin Street. But again, he was just too careless. The right hand provided no support even though he was entering a high-traffic area:
As you can see, that ball is neither high nor tight.
In Week 3, he again failed to keep the ball high and tight going to the ground, giving Alec Olgetree a chance to make a big play:
"Great play by them," said Murray said of that last one. "I think 52 came back and made the fumble happen. I’ve just got to hold it high and tight."
He hasn't been doing that early in games. If he can't change that, the Cowboys might have to consider giving more early-game carries to Murray's backup, Lance Dunbar.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.
Follow @Brad_Gagnon
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