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At the start of this season, most fans assumed Dallas would be contending for the playoff bid while Washington would have been far from contention at this point in the year. In fact, most media outlets projected the Commanders to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, not just the division.
But things have changed in 2015, as the Kirk Cousins era is officially upon us in Washington. Sure, the NFC East is atrocious, but the Commanders are, for now at least, the best team in the division.
Dallas has been unable to build off of its impressive 2014 campaign, due in large part to the fact that it has been without quarterback Tony Romo for a majority of the season.
The Cowboys will start Matt Cassel under center on Monday, who has failed to inspire much optimism that he can string together a few wins and get his team back in the NFC East playoff conversation.
Dallas is 0-4 with Cassel under center, and even with Dez Bryant active tonight, it seems unlikely for the Cowboys to go on the road and win a divisional game.
"[Cassel] came in, had to learn quickly, had to learn during the season," head coach Jason Garrett said, per Charean Williams of the Star-Telegram. "So there's a lot of things you're kind of catching up on when you come into a football team at that position at that time."
The Commanders have won five straight games at FedEx Field since dropping their season opener to Miami, averaging just under 30 points per game in those contests.
Kirk Cousins has played extremely well at home all season, with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions at FedEx Field, compared to five touchdowns and eight picks on the road.
Washington's "running back by committee" system is rarely successful in the NFL, but a mix of Matt Jones and Alfred Morris should keep the Commanders balanced. In home games, the Commanders have averaged 4.3 yards per carry, compared to just 2.5 on the road.
One area where the Commanders have a clear disadvantage will be in the secondary, as their patchwork group of defensive backs faces the likes of Bryant, Jason Witten and Terrence Williams.
With safety Dashon Goldson battling injuries and cornerback Chris Culliver out for the season, the Commanders will need corners Quinton Dunbar and Bashaud Breeland to keep the Dallas receivers in check.
The Cowboys have been the worst team in the NFL at throwing the ball down field, with only 24 passes of 20 or more yards, but will hope to expose the Commanders' hampered secondary on Monday night.
Dallas will also need a big game out of Darren McFadden to keep the chains moving. McFadden has been inconsistent all year long but has three 100-plus yard rushing performances in his last six games.
The Cowboys will also rely on their defense to step up on Monday night, a defense that currently ranks second in the NFL in terms of yards allowed.
However, if the Cowboys offense continues to struggle to move the ball and forces their defense into difficult situations throughout the night, it could get ugly in Washington.
This rivalry game is full of surprises each year, as evidenced by Colt McCoy taking last year's 2-5 Commanders into Dallas and walking out with a victory against a very good Cowboys team.
However, I don't see Dallas having much success with Matt Cassel under center, especially on the road against a Commanders team fighting for a playoff spot.
It could take only seven victories to win the NFC East this season, and if Washington pulls it out tonight, it will have sole possession of first place for the first time all year.
"I'm proud of the team to be in this position, how hard they worked, how much they've overcome from a week-to-week basis," coach Jay Gruden said, per Howard Fendrich of the Associated Press. "Overall, we have a lot of work to do, obviously, and we're going to continue to get better. That's our goal."
As Liz Clarke of the Washington Post noted, the Commanders have yet to win back-to-back games this year, a trend they will likely have to end if they are going to make the playoffs.
I can't see Washington giving this one away, as the Commanders pull it out, 27-16, behind a pair of touchdown passes from Cousins and the first rushing score of the year for Alfred Morris. Dallas continues to struggle to move the ball without Romo and has a few costly turnovers from Cassel.
Somehow, some way, Washington ends the day in first place in the division, and Kirk Cousins' "You Like That!" t-shirts begin to fill the streets of D.C. in even greater numbers.
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