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Point spread: Cowboys opened as four-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.9-18.4 Cowboys (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Giants can cover the spread
New York is coming off a 6-10 season, after which they parted ways with two-time Super Bowl champion head coach Tom Coughlin. But they replaced him with offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and kept most of the staff, so the transition shouldn't be too hard for the team.
The Giants actually ranked eighth in the league in total offense last season, and sixth in scoring at 26 points per game. And while the New York defense ranked dead last overall, they threw a bunch of money at that side of the ball over the offseason.
Also, of the Giants' 10 losses last year, eight came by six points or less. A couple of plays here and there and they might have won the NFC East.
Why the Cowboys can cover the spread
The Cowboys are coming off a 4-12 campaign of a season ago, when they just couldn't make any hay without Romo. But six of their losses without Romo came by one score or less.
Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott is coming off a great exhibition season in which he connected on 39 of 50 pass attempts for 504 yards and five touchdowns, without a pick. He also ran for a couple of scores. Prescott was the seventh quarterback taken in the draft, but at the moment he looks like the one who will make the biggest impact this season.
The Cowboys also added some quality fresh legs in the backfield with Ohio State rookie Ezekiel Elliott, who will run behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. And we all know a young quarterback's best friend is a good running game.
Finally, these teams have met in Week 1 three of the previous four seasons, with Dallas winning and covering all three of those games.
Smart pick
This is a tough one, because while Dallas holds advantages in the running game and on defense, it's also starting a rookie at quarterback who is expected to guide the Cowboys to almost five points less per game than Romo would have according to website PredictionMachine.com. Meanwhile, New York is hoping money fixes its defense. Ultimately, the team that wins the ground battle and makes the fewest mistakes should take the cash here, and that team looks like the Cowboys.
Betting trends
The total has gone over in the Giants' last seven games against the Cowboys.
The Giants are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
The Giants are 1-6 SU in their last seven games.
All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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