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Offensive Game Plan
In order for the Cowboys to win the game, they have to put themselves in positions to take advantage of the mismatches they can create against the Giants secondary in man-coverage situations.
While Prince Amukamara and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are functional NFL corners, either will be exposed if he is forced to cover Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams without help for the entire game. The Giants safety duo of rookie Landon Collins, and Taylor Cooper, along with nickel corner Jayron Hosley, will have similar issues covering the Cowboys’ inside receiving options, Jason Witten, Cole Beasley and Gavin Escobar.
In order to force those one-on-one matchups in the passing game, the Cowboys have to be able to run the ball early when the Giants attempt to stop the run with a seven-man front. With Jon Beason and Jason Pierre-Paul both missing the game, the Cowboys should be able to make plays in the run game.
It’s likely that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will want to start the game playing two-deep safeties as seen below.
This type of defensive alignment allows the safeties to provide help to the corners in the deep passing game. However, playing two-deep also forces the defense to defend the run with only seven guys. This is usually a one-to-one, defender-to-blocker ratio, which presents a problem for the defense.
If the Cowboys are able to run the ball successfully against those seven-man fronts, it will force Spagnuolo to adjust the alignment of the defense to a single high-safety look like this one:
By rotating one safety closer to the line of scrimmage and the other to the middle of the field, the defense can create an eight-man front, giving them a numerical advantage against the run game.
By running the ball well and forcing the Giants into more eight-man fronts, the Cowboys will give quarterback Tony Romo opportunities to attack down the field to guys such as Bryant and Williams and exploit the inexperienced safeties up the seams with Escobar and Witten.
In addition to running the ball, the Cowboys can use formations to create one-on-one matchups.
By lining up with an empty backfield, spreading the Giants defense from sideline-to-sideline, offensive coordinator Scott Linehan can create more one-on-one opportunities for his receiving options, all while giving his quarterback a more clear picture regarding any defenders who could be blitzing.
These one-on-one matchups present a significant advantage for Dallas, and if Linehan can find ways to isolate defenders for his weapons, the Cowboys should be able to score a lot of points on Sunday night.
Defensive Game Plan
Defensively, the key for the Cowboys against the Giants is to find a way to limit the big-play production of wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
In addition to his obvious physical gifts as both an athlete and a receiver, the Giants find multiple ways to put Beckham to use. Whether lined up wide as a traditional receiver, inside in the slot or in the backfield as a pseudo running back, the Giants are looking to find ways to get Beckham the ball.
If the Cowboys’ defensive plan is going to succeed, they will need to get pressure on quarterback Eli Manning using the four defensive linemen. This allows Rod Marinelli to play Cover 10, a variation of man coverage that shades a safety to one side of the field.
By playing a safety over the top of Beckham, you give whichever corner is matched up with him the chance to play a trail technique to help aid their reactions to his sudden change of direction on underneath routes, while maintaining deep protection.
Rueben Randle, Larry Donnell and Preston Parker are not the type of threats who will require special attention from the coverage. The only additional threat the Giants present from a weapons standpoint is new change-of-pace running back Shane Vereen, who will present a challenge for Sean Lee and the rest of the Dallas linebackers.
Prediction
Joe Randle runs for over 100 yards, Tony Romo throws for over 300 and Dez Bryant scores two touchdowns for the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Cowboys pass rush sacks Eli Manning three times. And although Odell Beckham Jr. catches eight passes and nears 100 yards, it’s not enough for a Giants win.
Cowboys 31, Giants 17
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