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Here's a breakdown of how the Cowboys and Eagles got to this point, as well as what lies ahead over the next three weeks.
Where they rank
When we last checked in on these teams, they had identical records with six weeks remaining in the season, but Dallas had the edge statistically. The Cowboys bettered the Eagles in nine of the 14 categories we examined and were more frequently among the league's top 10 teams (and less frequently among the bottom 10).
But then Dallas barely beat the New York Giants and lost an ugly game to Philadelphia, while Philly beat the Tennessee Titans easily before slaying the Cowboys. Dallas did recover with a Week 14 victory over the Chicago Bears, and the Eagles came back to earth with a tough loss Sunday to the Seattle Seahawks, but Philly has still found a way to basically pull even with the Cowboys in terms of where they rank league-wide.
That all-important points-per-game category is a bit deceiving because it includes points scored on defense and special teams. Dallas has scored 14 non-offensive points this season, while the Eagles have scored a league-leading 70. Looking only at the offenses, the Cowboys are averaging 25.3 points per game, while Philly is averaging 24.5.
It wouldn't be fair to completely remove that from the analysis because the Eagles obviously have a knack for scoring touchdowns on defense and special teams and probably have a higher chance than Dallas of doing so on Sunday night.
But a lot of that is fluke, and Dallas has surrendered just three non-offensive touchdowns this season (none since Week 7). Plus, the Eagles have scored just one non-offensive touchdown in the last four weeks, so the law of averages has begun to set in.
Overarching point: These teams are of very similar caliber. Dallas is stronger offensively, which makes sense considering the Eagles have had a lot of offensive injuries and are without their starting quarterback. And Philadelphia is stronger on defense, which also makes sense considering how much talent it has in the front seven and how many guys Dallas has lost at all three levels.
On the horizon
The Cowboys have a tougher road than Philadelphia. Philly gets to host Dallas and then plays the Washington Commanders and New York Giants to finish the season. Those two games are on the road, but Washington has lost nine of its last 11 games, and New York has dropped seven of its last eight.
Meanwhile, Dallas has to take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16 before playing the Commanders on the road to conclude the season. The Washington games basically cross each other out, except Philly beat the 'Skins earlier this year, and Dallas lost to them. The big difference is the Colts—who have won three straight games, lead the AFC South at 9-4 and have won four of their last five road games—should be a much bigger challenge than the Giants.
On top of that, Philadelphia controls the tiebreaker by virtue of a head-to-head victory over the Cowboys. If the Eagles win Sunday, they'll win the division unless they finish 0-2 and Dallas finishes 2-0. Considering the competition, that's extremely unlikely.
If the Cowboys win Sunday, they'll "control their own destiny." But because the Eagles would automatically have a stronger record versus divisional opponents by winning their final two games, that scenario would force the Cowboys to beat both Indy and Washington in order to hang on.
The wild card is another factor entirely. If the Eagles don't win the division, they're in big trouble. That's because they've lost to both the Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, one of whom is almost certain to be competing with them for a wild-card spot. They're also almost guaranteed to have a worse conference record than the Lions, and that would be the tiebreaker if those two teams were deadlocked for a playoff spot.
In other words, if the Eagles don't win the division, they probably don't make the playoffs.
Dallas also lost to Arizona and almost certainly would lose a tiebreaker with Detroit, but the Cowboys beat Seattle. So there is a decent chance the Cowboys would manage to make the playoffs as a wild card at 11-5, maybe even 10-6.
Not a must-win game?
I can absolutely see Dallas losing this game, then winning its next two to capture a wild-card spot. In fact, the Vegas odds for those three games probably lean toward that happening. And considering how good the Cowboys have been on the road this season (6-0) as well as the fact they'd have a chance to be matched up with the winner of the terrible NFC South, that ain't so bad.
I can also see the Eagles losing this game but then winning out. And in that scenario, it wouldn't be unrealistic to imagine the Cowboys losing one of their final two games to give the division back to Philly. In fact, the Cowboys have sort of made a habit of doing things like that in December.
Point is, this is a huge game. But it isn't a virtual playoff game. Not even close.
What we learned three weeks ago
The Eagles pummeled Dallas 33-10 on the road on Thanksgiving. Here's what happened.
On offense, they ran it down the throat of a thin defense, catching the Cowboys off guard with a pace that was fast even for the Eagles. Interim starting quarterback Mark Sanchez didn't have to do much (he had 217 yards on 20 completions) because the Cowboys couldn't stop running backs LeSean McCoy, Chris Polk and Darren Sproles (240 total yards on 40 touches).
The problem is that it's extremely hard to catch a team off guard twice, and Rod Marinelli is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league. There's a reason teams typically perform better in the second game of a season series after losing the first one, so the Eagles can't expect to win with an identical approach Sunday night.
On defense, Philly benefited from an off day from Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (18-of-29, 199 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions), while a very good run defense held DeMarco Murray in check (season-low 73 yards). But with the passing game struggling, the chips were stacked against Murray as part of a one-dimensional offense facing a D that has surrendered only 3.9 yards per carry this season.
No wonder it was so lopsided.
The odds of Romo having another poor performance aren't good either. The Eagles secondary seems to be getting worse after Philly surrendered first downs on three separate occasions in which it was 3rd-and-13 or longer Sunday against the Seahawks. While Philly's pass rush has been rolling, it's hard to imagine Romo not finding some space with that offensive line and that receiving corps.
Still, some numbers to consider:
- Romo has faced the same team twice in a season 11 times since 2009. On only three of those occasions did the Cowboys lose the first game. But in all three of those instances, they also lost the second game.
- With Romo at quarterback, the Cowboys haven't beaten a team they lost to earlier in the same season (also with Romo at quarterback) since defeating the Commanders 14-0 in November 2008. But Romo didn't even play well in the rematch, passing for 198 yards, one touchdown and two picks.
- In the 17 two-game season series Romo has been involved with in his career, he's posted better average numbers in the first meetings than in the second meetings, almost across the board.
- However, keep in mind that Romo really struggled late in the season earlier in his career. If we shorten the sample size to 2009-2014, it's clear he has indeed made some progress in regular-season rematches.
Keep in mind that Dallas was working on an unprecedented lack of rest for that last Philly game, having played the previous Sunday night. This time, it's on extended rest after beating Chicago on a Thursday in Week 14.
That helps, as does the fact the Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 away from AT&T Stadium this season, while the Eagles are coming off a bad home loss to Seattle.
Prediction: Dallas gets even
These teams were just meant to split the season series, and that's exactly what will happen. Dallas has outscored the Eagles 55-26 in back-to-back victories at Lincoln Financial Field and has lost just once in Philadelphia since 2009.
I don't necessarily think Dallas wins the division, because it would be typical of this team to trip against the Colts and/or the Commanders, but it should secure a huge victory Sunday night.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.
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