Doomsday101
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It's that time again, folks. Time for one of the most anticipated events of the NFL draft season (at least by my editor). Time for GMs to go scurrying to their war rooms to reevaluate their draft boards.
It's the fifth annual Overrated/Underrated column.
For those new to this tradition, I choose one player at each position who I feel is overrated by the various draft analysts, prognosticators and others who rank prospects for a living, and one who is underrated. I'm sorry to inform you that this list is not based off hundreds of hours of film evaluation or scouring combine results. It's based on a far-simpler method: Watching college football.
Every year, scouts unnecessarily drag down a few perfectly qualified prospects and foolishly prop up others due to their insistence on emphasizing so many things besides actual college production. While it's certainly not the only measuring stick, you would think such a thing would carry more weight than how fast a guy runs the 40-yard dash in shorts in February.
Past editions of this column have produced their share of both hits and misses. It's too early to judge the results of last year's just yet, though I definitely screwed up that Laurence Maroney bit. I'll go ahead and give myself some props for Marcus McNeill, though.
On to this year's crop, which, I must say, was the hardest one to do yet because ... I can't believe I'm saying this ... I think the scouts, for the most part, have it right. But there are exceptions.
Quarterback
Overrated: Brady Quinn, Notre Dame ( FILM ROOM)
Is Quinn worthy of a first-round pick? Absolutely. There's no slighting his productivity running Charlie Weis' pro-style offense the past two seasons. I just can't believe the Irish star is still being mentioned in the same breath as LSU's JaMarcus Russell. If you watched last year's Sugar Bowl, in which the two played on the same field, the difference was like night and day. (Or as one participant in the game told me, "Like high school vs. pee wee.")
Yes, Russell had the benefit of a better supporting cast, and yes, Quinn was facing a much tougher defense, but it was still painfully obvious that Russell was an elite-level prospect who made all sorts of ridiculous throws that neither Quinn nor any other college quarterback last year could dream of.
Whichever team winds up drafting Quinn is going to be getting a smart, skilled player who should succeed at the next level, but not some once-in-a-generation phenom you'd think about taking No. 1.
Underrated: Troy Smith, Ohio State ( FILM ROOM)
I've already devoted plentiful column space defending the plummeting Heisman winner. You can read that rant here. All I'll say here is that if Smith is truly considered a "late fourth-round" pick at this point, as SI.com's draft experts have billed him, then he can't get much more underrated than that.
Running Back
Overrated: Kenny Irons, Auburn ( FILM ROOM)
Irons' reputation was basically built during one particularly impressive six-game stretch toward the end of his junior season. He ran for 886 yards (nearly 150 per game) and eight touchdowns while carrying no fewer than 23 times in a contest.
Irons never came close to regaining that dominant form last season, barely gaining that many yards (893) over a full season. Injuries played a factor, causing him to miss two games and limiting him in others, but still he failed to exhibit the type of relentless running and make-you-miss moves of a guy who entered the season on most Heisman lists.
Teams that peg him as a future every-down NFL back will be taking a huge gamble that his one, glorious six-game run was the norm, not an exception.
Underrated: Michael Bush, Louisville ( FILM ROOM)
Talk about your costly injuries. A year ago, this guy was breathing down Adrian Peterson's neck as the top running back in this year's draft. Now, he's a sixth-rounder? Certainly, a broken leg is no small question mark, particularly since Bush just had a follow-up surgery last month to insert a new rod. But plenty of elite running backs have returned from devastating injuries to regained their previous form. If that happens in Bush's case, some lucky team is going to get a punishing, highly athletic runner who can be a beast in short-yardage and goal line situations (he scored 23 touchdowns as a junior).
Wide Receiver
Overrated: Dwayne Bowe, LSU ( FILM ROOM)
People have been drooling over this guy since the day he stepped foot on LSU's campus, and rightfully so, seeing as he's a strong, massive receiver who can get up and grab a jump ball. There's only one problem: He drops passes. Lots of them.
Much was made of his offseason LASIK surgery a year ago, and Bowe did cut down on his drops last year, but there were still some pretty big ones, most notably a wide-open touchdown against Florida that might have changed the course of what was then a 7-7 game (LSU wound up losing 23-10). He's a good receiver, one who had nearly 1,000 yards last season, but he was never quite as good as his lofty billing in college. Now he's being overhyped headed into the pros.
Underrated: Sidney Rice, South Carolina ( FILM ROOM)
For two straight years, Rice carried Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks offense on his back. One of those rare playmakers who can take over a game with only a couple of touches, he managed to rack up consecutive 1,000-yard seasons despite playing with average quarterbacks. Also, opposing defenses had to know Spurrier was going to try to get the ball to his star receiver at every possible opportunity.
Rice did come out after his redshirt sophomore year, perhaps raising concerns over whether he's ready to make the jump, but two full seasons as a primary receiver in the SEC is pretty substantial experience. You could easily justify ranking him higher than any receiver besides Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Jarrett.
Offensive Line
Overrated: Levi Brown, Penn State ( FILM ROOM)
To be fair, I had a hard time finding any offensive lineman this year that seemed grossly overrated, so with Brown it's mostly a case of nit-picking. It took a while for Brown to develop into an upper-echelon lineman, but by his junior and senior seasons he was fairly dominant. I'm just a little surprised to see him ranked so close to Outland winner Joe Thomas. The Wisconsin product is an otherworldly prospect who's shut down some of the nation's top pass-rushers and played a key role in the Badgers' powerful rushing attack; Brown was a solid performer for the Nittany Lions but his talents were hardly off the charts.
Underrated: Dan Mozes, West Virginia ( FILM ROOM)
The NFL is so rigid when it comes to the sizes it looks for at certain positions, that this 6-2 1/2, 293-pound center is barely considered draftable despite being one of the nation's most respected linemen the past two years. West Virginia ran for more than 300 yards per game last year, and Mozes was right at the center of attack. How many times did we see Steve Slaton or Pat White bursting through huge, gaping holes right in the center of the field? Particularly in a zone-blocking scheme like the Mountaineers', everything starts with the center, and Mozes was one of the nation's best. It's hard to believe he's not worthy of a selection somewhere over the course of seven rounds.
Defensive Line
Overrated: LaMarr Woodley, Michigan ( FILM ROOM)
We college writers were partially responsible for overhyping the Wolverines' rush end (though it should be noted that SI.com was one of the only organizations to leave him off its All-America first team). He was the guy putting up the big numbers (12 sacks) during Michigan's 11-game winning streak to start last season and therefore got much of the accolades.
In truth, it was interior lineman Alan Branch who played the biggest role in Michigan's dominant front four, paving the way for the nation's leading rush defense, and Woodley was eventually exposed in the season-ending Ohio State and USC games, in which he was barely a factor. Scouts seem to realize this as Woodley, once a projected first-round, is slipping deeper into the second round.
Underrated: Charles Johnson, Georgia ( FILM ROOM)
Headed into last season, Johnson's counterpart, Quentin Moses, was the Bulldogs' most acclaimed pass-rusher. It was Johnson, however, who ultimately racked up team highs with 9.5 sacks and 19 tackles for loss in helping continue Georgia's recent defensive dominance.
Because Johnson was a backup prior to last season and then came out a year early, GMs may feel like he doesn't have a proven enough track record. But from what we saw of him last season, he has all the makings of an elite pass-rusher who should have a productive NFL career.
Linebacker
Overrated: Stewart Bradley, Nebraska ( FILM ROOM)
In what is generally considered a weak linebacker class, Bradley is generally considered one of the top-five outside linebacker prospects. This should come as a surprise to anyone who watched a Nebraska game last year if, like me, you barely remember noticing him. After missing most of 2005 with a knee injury, Bradley returned last season to make a modest 76 tackles and six tackles for loss while earning honorable mention All-Big 12 honors. While these are admirable achievements, it's hard to believe there aren't a whole bunch of other, more accomplished prospects at his position.
Underrated: Buster Davis, Florida State ( FILM ROOM)
The universally low regard for Davis, a projected sixth-rounder, is one of the more shocking slights I've seen. If you watched a Florida State game last year, you couldn't possibly have missed Davis. He was the guy finding his way into nearly every play, routinely stuffing people in the backfield and generally wreaking havoc from whistle to whistle. He was every bit as productive, if not more so, as predecessors Ernie Sims and A.J. Nicholson, yet is not held in nearly the same regard as either them or current counterpart Lawrence Timmons. Presumably his height (just under 5-10) has a lot to do with that, but it didn't seem to hinder him in the past.
Defensive back
Overrated: Chris Houston, Arkansas ( FILM ROOM)
He's this year's definitive workout wonder. Houston was a good, not great cornerback for the Razorbacks last season, excelling in some games (USC, Tennessee), struggling in others (South Carolina, Florida). But he ran a 4.32 at the combine, bench-pressed some ridiculous amount and now suddenly he's the second coming of Lito Sheppard -- or at least a solid first-rounder. Not buying it. Houston certainly talks a big game, but he still casts no shortage of doubt. Perhaps some teams are that desperate for a cornerback (because top prospects Leon Hall and Aaron Ross aren't exactly sure-locks, either).
Underrated: Eric Weddle, Utah ( FILM ROOM)
I can't believe this guy isn't more coveted. Besides the fact he can play safety and cornerback (and quarterback, running back and kick returner), he's a proven, big-time playmaker who's earned consecutive Mountain West defensive player of the year awards and scored eight touchdowns last season. I would think scouts would pay particular attention to tape of the 2005 Emerald Bowl, in which Weddle helped hold Georgia Tech extraordinaire Calvin Johnson to two catches for 19 yards. He's not a freakish athlete like Reggie Nelson or LaRon Landry -- but he's pretty darn special. I'd take him high in the second round.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/stewart_mandel/04/19/overrated.underrated/index.html
It's the fifth annual Overrated/Underrated column.
For those new to this tradition, I choose one player at each position who I feel is overrated by the various draft analysts, prognosticators and others who rank prospects for a living, and one who is underrated. I'm sorry to inform you that this list is not based off hundreds of hours of film evaluation or scouring combine results. It's based on a far-simpler method: Watching college football.
Every year, scouts unnecessarily drag down a few perfectly qualified prospects and foolishly prop up others due to their insistence on emphasizing so many things besides actual college production. While it's certainly not the only measuring stick, you would think such a thing would carry more weight than how fast a guy runs the 40-yard dash in shorts in February.
Past editions of this column have produced their share of both hits and misses. It's too early to judge the results of last year's just yet, though I definitely screwed up that Laurence Maroney bit. I'll go ahead and give myself some props for Marcus McNeill, though.
On to this year's crop, which, I must say, was the hardest one to do yet because ... I can't believe I'm saying this ... I think the scouts, for the most part, have it right. But there are exceptions.
Quarterback
Overrated: Brady Quinn, Notre Dame ( FILM ROOM)
Is Quinn worthy of a first-round pick? Absolutely. There's no slighting his productivity running Charlie Weis' pro-style offense the past two seasons. I just can't believe the Irish star is still being mentioned in the same breath as LSU's JaMarcus Russell. If you watched last year's Sugar Bowl, in which the two played on the same field, the difference was like night and day. (Or as one participant in the game told me, "Like high school vs. pee wee.")
Yes, Russell had the benefit of a better supporting cast, and yes, Quinn was facing a much tougher defense, but it was still painfully obvious that Russell was an elite-level prospect who made all sorts of ridiculous throws that neither Quinn nor any other college quarterback last year could dream of.
Whichever team winds up drafting Quinn is going to be getting a smart, skilled player who should succeed at the next level, but not some once-in-a-generation phenom you'd think about taking No. 1.
Underrated: Troy Smith, Ohio State ( FILM ROOM)
I've already devoted plentiful column space defending the plummeting Heisman winner. You can read that rant here. All I'll say here is that if Smith is truly considered a "late fourth-round" pick at this point, as SI.com's draft experts have billed him, then he can't get much more underrated than that.
Running Back
Overrated: Kenny Irons, Auburn ( FILM ROOM)
Irons' reputation was basically built during one particularly impressive six-game stretch toward the end of his junior season. He ran for 886 yards (nearly 150 per game) and eight touchdowns while carrying no fewer than 23 times in a contest.
Irons never came close to regaining that dominant form last season, barely gaining that many yards (893) over a full season. Injuries played a factor, causing him to miss two games and limiting him in others, but still he failed to exhibit the type of relentless running and make-you-miss moves of a guy who entered the season on most Heisman lists.
Teams that peg him as a future every-down NFL back will be taking a huge gamble that his one, glorious six-game run was the norm, not an exception.
Underrated: Michael Bush, Louisville ( FILM ROOM)
Talk about your costly injuries. A year ago, this guy was breathing down Adrian Peterson's neck as the top running back in this year's draft. Now, he's a sixth-rounder? Certainly, a broken leg is no small question mark, particularly since Bush just had a follow-up surgery last month to insert a new rod. But plenty of elite running backs have returned from devastating injuries to regained their previous form. If that happens in Bush's case, some lucky team is going to get a punishing, highly athletic runner who can be a beast in short-yardage and goal line situations (he scored 23 touchdowns as a junior).
Wide Receiver
Overrated: Dwayne Bowe, LSU ( FILM ROOM)
People have been drooling over this guy since the day he stepped foot on LSU's campus, and rightfully so, seeing as he's a strong, massive receiver who can get up and grab a jump ball. There's only one problem: He drops passes. Lots of them.
Much was made of his offseason LASIK surgery a year ago, and Bowe did cut down on his drops last year, but there were still some pretty big ones, most notably a wide-open touchdown against Florida that might have changed the course of what was then a 7-7 game (LSU wound up losing 23-10). He's a good receiver, one who had nearly 1,000 yards last season, but he was never quite as good as his lofty billing in college. Now he's being overhyped headed into the pros.
Underrated: Sidney Rice, South Carolina ( FILM ROOM)
For two straight years, Rice carried Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks offense on his back. One of those rare playmakers who can take over a game with only a couple of touches, he managed to rack up consecutive 1,000-yard seasons despite playing with average quarterbacks. Also, opposing defenses had to know Spurrier was going to try to get the ball to his star receiver at every possible opportunity.
Rice did come out after his redshirt sophomore year, perhaps raising concerns over whether he's ready to make the jump, but two full seasons as a primary receiver in the SEC is pretty substantial experience. You could easily justify ranking him higher than any receiver besides Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Jarrett.
Offensive Line
Overrated: Levi Brown, Penn State ( FILM ROOM)
To be fair, I had a hard time finding any offensive lineman this year that seemed grossly overrated, so with Brown it's mostly a case of nit-picking. It took a while for Brown to develop into an upper-echelon lineman, but by his junior and senior seasons he was fairly dominant. I'm just a little surprised to see him ranked so close to Outland winner Joe Thomas. The Wisconsin product is an otherworldly prospect who's shut down some of the nation's top pass-rushers and played a key role in the Badgers' powerful rushing attack; Brown was a solid performer for the Nittany Lions but his talents were hardly off the charts.
Underrated: Dan Mozes, West Virginia ( FILM ROOM)
The NFL is so rigid when it comes to the sizes it looks for at certain positions, that this 6-2 1/2, 293-pound center is barely considered draftable despite being one of the nation's most respected linemen the past two years. West Virginia ran for more than 300 yards per game last year, and Mozes was right at the center of attack. How many times did we see Steve Slaton or Pat White bursting through huge, gaping holes right in the center of the field? Particularly in a zone-blocking scheme like the Mountaineers', everything starts with the center, and Mozes was one of the nation's best. It's hard to believe he's not worthy of a selection somewhere over the course of seven rounds.
Defensive Line
Overrated: LaMarr Woodley, Michigan ( FILM ROOM)
We college writers were partially responsible for overhyping the Wolverines' rush end (though it should be noted that SI.com was one of the only organizations to leave him off its All-America first team). He was the guy putting up the big numbers (12 sacks) during Michigan's 11-game winning streak to start last season and therefore got much of the accolades.
In truth, it was interior lineman Alan Branch who played the biggest role in Michigan's dominant front four, paving the way for the nation's leading rush defense, and Woodley was eventually exposed in the season-ending Ohio State and USC games, in which he was barely a factor. Scouts seem to realize this as Woodley, once a projected first-round, is slipping deeper into the second round.
Underrated: Charles Johnson, Georgia ( FILM ROOM)
Headed into last season, Johnson's counterpart, Quentin Moses, was the Bulldogs' most acclaimed pass-rusher. It was Johnson, however, who ultimately racked up team highs with 9.5 sacks and 19 tackles for loss in helping continue Georgia's recent defensive dominance.
Because Johnson was a backup prior to last season and then came out a year early, GMs may feel like he doesn't have a proven enough track record. But from what we saw of him last season, he has all the makings of an elite pass-rusher who should have a productive NFL career.
Linebacker
Overrated: Stewart Bradley, Nebraska ( FILM ROOM)
In what is generally considered a weak linebacker class, Bradley is generally considered one of the top-five outside linebacker prospects. This should come as a surprise to anyone who watched a Nebraska game last year if, like me, you barely remember noticing him. After missing most of 2005 with a knee injury, Bradley returned last season to make a modest 76 tackles and six tackles for loss while earning honorable mention All-Big 12 honors. While these are admirable achievements, it's hard to believe there aren't a whole bunch of other, more accomplished prospects at his position.
Underrated: Buster Davis, Florida State ( FILM ROOM)
The universally low regard for Davis, a projected sixth-rounder, is one of the more shocking slights I've seen. If you watched a Florida State game last year, you couldn't possibly have missed Davis. He was the guy finding his way into nearly every play, routinely stuffing people in the backfield and generally wreaking havoc from whistle to whistle. He was every bit as productive, if not more so, as predecessors Ernie Sims and A.J. Nicholson, yet is not held in nearly the same regard as either them or current counterpart Lawrence Timmons. Presumably his height (just under 5-10) has a lot to do with that, but it didn't seem to hinder him in the past.
Defensive back
Overrated: Chris Houston, Arkansas ( FILM ROOM)
He's this year's definitive workout wonder. Houston was a good, not great cornerback for the Razorbacks last season, excelling in some games (USC, Tennessee), struggling in others (South Carolina, Florida). But he ran a 4.32 at the combine, bench-pressed some ridiculous amount and now suddenly he's the second coming of Lito Sheppard -- or at least a solid first-rounder. Not buying it. Houston certainly talks a big game, but he still casts no shortage of doubt. Perhaps some teams are that desperate for a cornerback (because top prospects Leon Hall and Aaron Ross aren't exactly sure-locks, either).
Underrated: Eric Weddle, Utah ( FILM ROOM)
I can't believe this guy isn't more coveted. Besides the fact he can play safety and cornerback (and quarterback, running back and kick returner), he's a proven, big-time playmaker who's earned consecutive Mountain West defensive player of the year awards and scored eight touchdowns last season. I would think scouts would pay particular attention to tape of the 2005 Emerald Bowl, in which Weddle helped hold Georgia Tech extraordinaire Calvin Johnson to two catches for 19 yards. He's not a freakish athlete like Reggie Nelson or LaRon Landry -- but he's pretty darn special. I'd take him high in the second round.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/stewart_mandel/04/19/overrated.underrated/index.html
