News: BTB: 2016 NFL Mock Draft Database 3.0: What The Wisdom Of 50 Mocks Says About Who Cowboys Will...

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We leverage the mother of all mock draft databases to get a better feel for what the Cowboys will do with their top pick in the 2016 NFL draft.

In our first mock draft database of the season, published the day before the Senior Bowl on January 29, we took a look at 30 different mock drafts. A week later, we upped that number to 37 different mock drafts. Today, our tally has reached 50 mock drafts.

In 2004, James Surowiecki published a book titled "The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations." As you'd expect from the uber-long title, the central argument is that the aggregation of information from a large group of people can provide better results than from any single individual.

Using our 50 draft analysts as our sample crowd, their aggregated wisdom suggests Myles Jack (30% of the vote) or Jalen Ramsey (20%) will be the Cowboys pick in the 2016 NFL draft, though we may not have needed 50 mock drafts to figure that out. Similarly, 80% of the mocks seem to agree that the Cowboys will not be picking a QB with their No. 4 pick.

Here's who the 50 mocks have the Cowboys picking.

Mock Draft Database 3.0 - Who do the draft analysts have the Cowboys selecting at No. 4?​

Analyst Site Cowboys pick at No. 4 Position School

Last Update​

Drafttek Team

DraftTek Jalen Ramsey​

CB/S Florida State

2/19​

Alpha1

Alpha Football Expert Myles Jack​

LB UCLA

2/19​

Kevin Hanson

EDS Football Joey Bosa​

DE Ohiao State

2/19​

Mel Kiper ESPN Jared Goff QB California

2/18​

Lance Zierlein NFL.com Jalen Ramsey CB/S Florida State

2/18​

Staff

Draftseason Paxton Lynch​

QB Memphis

2/18​

Matt LaPan

Draftbreakdown Jalen Ramsey​

CB/S Florida State

2/18​

Eric Edholm Yahoo Sports Jalen Ramsey CB/S Florida State

2/17​

Chad Reuter

NFL.com Joey Bosa​

DE Ohio State

2/17​

Walter Cherepinsky

Walter Football Myles Jack​

LB UCLA

2/17​

Chris Burke

SI.com Myles Jack​

LB UCLA

2/17​

Eddie Borwn

San Diego Union Trib. Myles Jack​

LB UCLA

2/17​

Paul Banks

Sportsbank Myles Jack​

LB UCLA

2/17​

Tab Bamford

Chicago Sportstab Carson Wentz​

QB N.D. State

2/17​

Daniel Jeremiah NFL.com Myles Jack LB UCLA

2/16​

Dan Kadar SB Nation Myles Jack LB UCLA

2/15​

Rob Rang CBS Sports Myles Jack LB UCLA

2/15​

Ryan McCrystal

DraftAce Myles Jack​

LB UCLA

2/15​

Dane Brugler CBS Sports Joey Bosa DE Ohio State

2/15​

Jon Meoli

Baltimore Sun Carson Wentz​

QB N.D. State

2/15​

Charlie Campbell

Walter Football Myles Jack​

LB Ohio State

2/15​

Rob Staton

Seahawksdraftblog Jalen Ramsey​

CB/S Florida State

2/14​

Steve Serby

NY Post DeForest Buckner​

DE Oregon

2/13​

Charean Williams

Fort Worth Star-Telegram Myles Jack​

LB UCLA

2/12​

NESN Staff

NESN Myles Jack​

LB UCLA

2/12​

Josh Norris Rotoworld NFL Myles Jack LB UCLA

2/11​

Jon Valencia Breaking Football

Joey Bosa​

DE Ohio State

2/11​

Hays Carlton

Florida Times Union Paxton Lynch​

QB Memphis

2/11​

Lou Pickney

Draft King Jalen Ramsey​

CB/S Florida State

2/11​

Robert Davis

Football's Future Carson Wentz​

QB N.D. State

2/10​

Dan Bilicki

Toronto Sun Joey Bosa​

DE Ohio State

2/10​

Eric Galko Sporting News Joey Bosa DE Ohio State

2/09​

Dan Turner NFL Draft Zone Myles Jack LB UCLA

2/09​

DJ Boyer

Draft Site Myles Jack​

LB UCLA

2/09​

Matt Miller Bleacher Report Joey Bosa DE Ohio State

2/08​

Dan Wilkens The Score Laquon Treadwell WR Ole Miss

2/08​

Bob McManaman

AZCentral Paxton Lynch​

QB Memphis

2/08​

Nate Davis

USA Today Joey Bosa​

DE Ohio State

2/08​

Robert Judin

Campus Insiders Jalen Ramsey​

CB/S Florida State

2/08​

Nick Clopsis

Newsday Laquon Treadwell​

WR Ole Miss

2/08​

Todd McShay

ESPN (McShay) Carson Wentz​

QB N.D. State

2/03​

Dave Syvertsen

Ourlads Carson Wentz​

QB N.D. State

2/02​

Steve Palazzolo Pro Football Focus Jalen Ramsey CB/S Florida State

2/02​

Jeff Risdon

RealGM Ezekiel Elliot​

RB Ohio State

2/01​

Scott Wright

DraftCountdown Joey Bosa​

DE Ohio State

1/26​

Peter Schrager

Foxsports Jared Goff​

QB Cal

1/26​

Bucky Brooks NFL.com Joey Bosa DE Ohio State

1/17​

Jason McIntyre

The Big Lead Jalen Ramsey​

CB/S Florida State

1/13​

John Harris

Washington Post Andrew Billings​

DT Baylor

1/13​

GBN Staff

Great Blue North Jalen Ramsey​

CB/S Florida State

1/07​

​

Here's a further breakdown of how the players selected have changed since two weeks ago.

Summary results by player​

Player POS Jan 29 Feb 5 Feb 19
Myles Jack LB

9 9 15​

Jalen Ramsey CB

5 3 10​

Joey Bosa DE

6 7 9​

Carson Wentz QB

1 9 5​

Paxton Lynch QB

- - 1 3​

Jared Goff QB

1 1 2​

Laquon Treadwell WR

1 1 2​

DeForest Buckner DE

2 2 1​

Andrew Billings DT

1 1 1​

Ezekiel Elliott RB

- - 1 1​

A'Shawn Robinson DT

3 2 - -​

Robert Nkemdiche DT

1 - - - -​

​

For the wisdom of crowds argument to work, you have to believe that there are different knowledge levels in a crowd that can be coordinated to provide a more precise result in aggregate. But what if there's no knowledge level in these mocks at all?

Continue reading...